[SMM analysis] 5G mobile phone shipments account for more than 60% in five months. Expected output of lithium cobalt oxide for the whole year will increase by 15% and 20% compared with the same period last year.

SMM11 March 16: according to data from the Institute of Information Technology and Communications, in October, the domestic mobile phone market shipped 26.153 million units, down 27.3% from the same period last year. From January to October, the domestic mobile phone market shipped a total of 252 million units, down 22.1% from the same period last year.

In terms of 5G mobile phones, 5G mobile phones shipped 16.76 million units in October, accounting for 64.1% of mobile phone shipments in the same period, accounting for more than 60% of mobile phones shipped for five consecutive months. From January to October, 5G mobile phones shipped a total of 124 million units, accounting for 49.4% and 47.3% of new models on the market, respectively.

In addition, in October 2020, 16 new models of 5G mobile phones were launched, accounting for 57.1% of the new models on the market in the same period. From January to October, a total of 183 new models were launched, accounting for 47.3%.

IDC had previously predicted that about 240 million 5G mobile phones would be shipped worldwide in 2020, while the Chinese market would contribute more than 160 million units, accounting for about 67.7 per cent. China will also continue to account for about half of the global market share in the next five years.

5G mobile phones have accounted for more than 60% for five months in a row, and the surge in shipments has driven battery demand to a certain extent, which is good for the lithium cobalt oxide market. According to SMM, the price of lithium cobalt has bottomed out since the end of July and then remained stable in September. As of November 16, the daily average price of lithium cobalt was 222000 yuan / ton, rebounding 14.73% from the lowest level since the beginning of the year.

"Click to view the historical price of SMM cobalt lithium

SMM believes that the release of iPhone 12 in October will drive some mobile phone shipments. According to customer feedback, affected by the epidemic, the demand for notebooks, tablets, wearable devices and smart homes has increased to varying degrees throughout the year. The 5G trend led to an increase in demand for lithium cobalt oxide compared with the same period last year, and the epidemic affected other 3C consumption increments obviously. 5G mobile phone shipments may account for more than 60% of mobile phone shipments for seven months in a row. SMM expects Chinese mobile phone shipments to decline 23% for the whole year compared with the same period last year. China's lithium cobalt production hit a record high in October compared with the same period last year, and lithium cobalt production is expected to increase by 15% and 20% year-on-year.

Output of Lithium Cobalt oxide in China in 2020

"Click to view the SMM cobalt lithium database