SMM11 March 8: yesterday, the outer disk metal market was red, fat and thin, with Ren Copper up 1.19%, Ren Zinc up 1.15%, Lunxi up 0.71%, Ren Aluminum up nearly 0.45%, Ren lead down 0.38%, Lenny Nickel down 1.38%, and London copper futures rose for the fifth day in a row. In the US presidential election, Biden narrowly led President Trump in the battleground states of Pennsylvania and Georgia, while the dollar continued to weaken. Investors are betting that Democrat Joe Biden will win the US presidential election, but Republicans will control the Senate, stop the government from borrowing and could pave the way for more stimulus measures from the Fed. Such speculation triggered a rally in the stock market and made the dollar likely to record its worst week since March, making metals cheaper for buyers outside the US. Domestically, Shanghai zinc is up 0.98%, Shanghai copper is up 0.7%, Shanghai aluminum is up 0.61%, Shanghai tin is up 0.59%, Shanghai lead is up 0.56%, and Shanghai nickel is down 1.81%.
The dollar index fell to 92.18 on Friday, its lowest level since September 1, as long-term Treasury yields fell sharply on expectations of a reduction in fiscal stimulus, coupled with a rebound in equities and other riskier assets. this pressure is likely to continue. The weak tone of the dollar remained largely unchanged, with the Swiss franc surging to its highest level since 2015, while the yen posted its biggest weekly gain in seven weeks, earlier rising to its highest level since March. The Swedish krona and the Norwegian krona led the rise in Gmuri 10 currencies, with the Australian dollar at the bottom.
The three major indexes of US stocks closed mixed, with the S & P 500 down 1.00 points, or 0.03%, at 3509.44; the NASDAQ closed up 4.30 points, or 0.04%, at 11895.23; and the Dow Jones Index closed down 66.80 points, or 0.24%, at 28323.40.
For crude oil, US oil prices fell below $40 a barrel on Friday as a rise in the number of new cases of novel coronavirus around the world raised concerns about sluggish demand and the prolonged counting of votes in the US presidential election rattled markets. The diminishing prospect of a massive stimulus package in the US is also putting pressure on the market. McConnell (Mitch McConnell), the Republican leader in the US Senate, said on Friday that economic data, including an one percentage point drop in unemployment, showed that Congress should enact a smaller novel coronavirus stimulus plan that was highly responsive to the impact of the epidemic.
In precious metals, COMEX gold futures closed higher on Friday, breaking the highest closing price in seven weeks. The dollar suffered its biggest weekly decline since March this week, leading to gold's biggest weekly gain since July. Another reason for the rise in precious metals prices is that uncertainties remain in the US election. But Biden now seems to have a slight lead in Pennsylvania and Georgia. Commodity futures market experts said that the global surge in novel coronavirus cases has also supported gold and silver futures prices.
In terms of data, the monthly rate of industrial output in Germany after the quarterly adjustment in September, the previous value is-0.20%, the expected 2.7%, revised 0.5% (previous value), announced 1.6%.
Germany's annual rate of industrial output, adjusted for working days in September, was-9.60%, expected to be-6.5%, and published at-7.3%.
Us non-farm payrolls (10,000) after quarterly adjustment in October, with a previous value of 66.1, expected to be 60, released 63.8.
Us non-farm payrolls after the October quarterly adjustment were slightly better than expected, recording an increase of 638000, the fourth consecutive monthly decline and the second consecutive month below 1 million. The unemployment rate in the United States recorded 6.9% in October, the sixth consecutive month of decline and well below the expected 7.7%. Us Bureau of Labor Statistics: employment in leisure and hotel, retail trade, construction, and professional and business services increased significantly in October.
According to CME Fed Watch, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates in the 0% won 0.25% range in December is 100%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.25% is 0%. The probability of keeping interest rates in the 0% won 0.25% range in January next year is 100%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 0%. (consistent with those before non-farming)
The monthly rate of wholesale sales in the United States in September, the previous value of 1.40%, expected 1%, announced 0.1%.
The total number of oil drilling in the United States in the week to November 6, with a previous value of 221, is expected to be 225.
U. S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC): in the week ended Nov. 3, WTI crude oil futures speculative net long position fell 36699 to 251024 hands.
China's foreign exchange reserves (US $100 million) in October, the previous value of 31,425.6, is expected to be 31500, announced 31279.8.
People's Bank of China: China's gold reserves were at 62.64 million ounces (about 1948.32 tons) at the end of October, unchanged from the previous month. Wang Chunying, Deputy Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange: in October, the operation of China's foreign exchange market remained stable and the market transactions were rational and orderly. In the international financial market, affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, monetary and fiscal policy expectations and other factors, the US dollar index rose, while asset prices in major countries fell. Due to the combined effect of factors such as exchange rate conversion and changes in asset prices, the scale of foreign exchange reserves decreased in that month.
China's October trade account (100 million yuan), the previous value of 2576.8, is expected to be 3204, announced 4017.5. China calculated its trade account in dollars in October (US $100 million), with a previous value of 370, expected to be 462, and announced 584.4.
General Administration of Customs: exports of mechanical and electrical products, textiles and plastic products increased, while exports of clothing, shoes and bags decreased. In the first 10 months, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products totaled 8.45 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.8 percent, accounting for 59 percent of the total export value. Of this total, the export of automatic data processing equipment and its spare parts was 1.17 trillion yuan, up 10.5 percent; mobile phones were 632.72 billion yuan, down 4.6 percent; and cars (including chassis) were 85.31 billion yuan, down 6.7 percent. Imports of iron ore rose in volume and prices, while imports of commodities such as crude oil, soybeans and natural gas increased and fell. In the first 10 months, China imported 975 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 11.2 percent, an average import price of 683.3 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.8 percent, 459 million tons of crude oil, an increase of 10.6 percent, and an average import price of 2286.1 yuan per ton, down 30.5 percent. In the first 10 months, imports of mechanical and electrical products totaled 5.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.4 percent. Of these, 435.69 billion were integrated circuits, an increase of 22.4 percent, with a value of 1.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 16 percent.
