The Nonferrous Industry Association held a press conference on the operation of the non-ferrous metal industry in the first three quarters. The non-ferrous industry showed a trend of recovery after bottoming out.

The non-ferrous metals industry showed a trend of recovery after bottoming out in the first three quarters.

Jia Xing first summarized the overall operation of the non-ferrous industry in the first three quarters:

First, the cumulative increase in the added value of the non-ferrous metals industry has increased steadily. In the first three quarters, the added value of the non-ferrous metal smelting and Calendering industry increased by 1.9% over the same period last year, 0.7 percentage points higher than that of the national regulations. Among them, the added value of the non-ferrous metal smelting and Calendering industry in the first half of the year increased by 1.0% from 3.8% in the first quarter, and the growth rate in the first three quarters was 0.9 percentage points higher than that in the first half of the year.

Second, the increase in smelting output of commonly used non-ferrous metals has increased steadily, and the output of mines and processing has returned to positive growth. In the first three quarters, the output of China's ten non-ferrous metals was 45.176 million tons, an increase of 3.5 percent over the same period last year.

Third, the overall decline in investment in fixed assets has narrowed. In the first three quarters, total investment in fixed assets completed by the non-ferrous metals industry (including independent gold enterprises) fell 7.0% from the same period last year, 1.5 percentage points lower than in the first half of the year and 4.4 percentage points lower than in the first quarter. Among them, investment in fixed assets completed in mining decreased by 6.9% compared with the same period last year, and investment in fixed assets completed in smelting and Calendering fell by 7.0% compared with the same period last year.

Fourth, imports and exports of unwrought copper and copper products increased by a large margin, while exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products narrowed. In the first three quarters, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 4.994 million tons, an increase of 41.2 percent over the same period last year, an increase of 16 percentage points over the first half of the year and 32.1 percent over the first quarter. China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 3.561 million tons, down 18.4 percent from the same period last year, 2.2 percentage points lower than in the first half of the year, but still 0.9 percentage points higher than in the first quarter.

Fifth, the price of copper and aluminum in the domestic market has returned to and exceeded the price level before the epidemic. The average price of copper in the domestic spot market in September was 51814 yuan / ton, up 10200 yuan / ton, or 24.5%, from the average price in March, and 3263 yuan / ton, or 6.7%, from the average price in December last year before the epidemic.

The average price of aluminum in the domestic spot market in September was 14620 yuan / ton, up 2290 yuan / ton, or 18.6%, from the average price in March, and 358 yuan / ton, or 2.5%, from the average price in December last year before the epidemic.

Sixth, according to the regulations, the profits of non-ferrous metal enterprises have turned to positive growth. In the first three quarters, the profits of non-ferrous metals industrial enterprises reached 110.07 billion yuan, an increase of 2.9 percent over the same period last year. Of the 34 industry subcategories of non-ferrous metal industrial enterprises, 17 achieved profit growth in the first three quarters.

The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to maintain a recovery trend in the fourth quarter.

Jia Xing looked forward to the operation of the non-ferrous industry in the fourth quarter, saying that according to the macroeconomic environment at home and abroad, combined with the "trinity" forecast and early warning index of the non-ferrous metal industry compiled by the Nonferrous Association, it is preliminarily judged that the non-ferrous metal industry will continue to recover and improve in the fourth quarter of this year, but there is still uncertainty.

The main indicators of the non-ferrous metals industry are as follows: in the fourth quarter, ten kinds of non-ferrous metals continue to maintain steady growth, mines and processed products are expected to maintain sustained growth, and the overall output of non-ferrous metals for the whole year is expected to be slightly higher than the level of last year; the decline in fixed assets investment in non-ferrous metals in the fourth quarter is expected to gradually narrow; the pressure on exports of aluminum and other non-ferrous metals in the fourth quarter is still great, and exports for the whole year are hardly optimistic. The overall price of major non-ferrous metals in the domestic market showed a high volatility in the fourth quarter; the profit in the fourth quarter is expected to continue the profit level in the third quarter; and the demand for non-ferrous metals in the domestic downstream industry is expected to recover further in the fourth quarter.

Problems that need to be paid attention to to maintain the smooth operation of non-ferrous metals

When talking about the issues that need to be paid attention to to maintain the smooth operation of the non-ferrous industry, Jia Xing believes that it is still necessary to maintain a high degree of vigilance against the production capacity expansion of the smelting industry, and the focus on monetary policy will also be beneficial to the risk control of enterprises in the industry.

First, pay attention to the growth of smelting capacity of non-ferrous metals. Jia Xing said that according to the statistics of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, by the end of 2019, China's mineral crude copper production capacity reached 8.2 million tons / year, electrolytic copper production capacity reached 11.8 million tons / year, alumina production capacity reached 88.5 million tons / year, electrolytic aluminum production capacity reached 43.5 million tons / year. Under the premise of the current rebound in product prices and increased profits, the expansion of the momentum of the increase in production capacity of some saturated non-ferrous metals should attract the attention of the industry.

Second, the growth rate of the added value of the non-ferrous metals industry above the scale was revised back in September. In September, the added value of the above-scale non-ferrous metal smelting and Calendering industry increased by 3.5% compared with the same period last year, which was 1.3 percentage points lower than that in August and 3.4 percentage points lower than the industrial added value of the national regulations.

The third is to pay attention to the normalization of monetary policy. Yi Gang, governor of the people's Bank of China, said at the 2020 Financial Street Forum on October 21 that "during the special period of fighting the epidemic this year, the macro-leverage ratio has increased, and after the GDP growth rate rebounds next year, the macro-leverage ratio will be more stable." Monetary policy needs to properly control the general floodgate of the money supply and properly smooth the fluctuation of the macro leverage ratio so as to maintain it on a reasonable track in the long run. " At its regular meeting in the third quarter of 2020, the Monetary Policy Committee of the people's Bank of China deleted the expression "strengthen macro policy adjustment". Market analysis believes that the total amount represented by cutting interest rates and reserve requirements is loose or will not be increased.