SMM10 March 15: metal on the outer disk generally rose yesterday, Lun Copper rose on Wednesday, Chile, the largest copper producer, is in danger of supply disruption, while the market is hopeful of stronger demand from China, the largest consumer, so that prices are supported. There were ups and downs in the LME metal market this morning. As of 09:50, Shanghai nickel fell nearly 0.8%, Shanghai lead fell nearly 0.4%, Shanghai copper fell slightly, Shanghai tin was flat, Shanghai aluminum rose nearly 0.1%, Shanghai zinc rose nearly 0.4%. Domestically, Shanghai nickel rose nearly 1.1%, Shanghai tin rose nearly 0.4%, Shanghai aluminum rose nearly 0.1%, Shanghai zinc fell nearly 0.1%, Shanghai copper fell nearly 0.2%, and Shanghai lead fell nearly 1.2%. The US dollar and the yen gained support on Thursday as investors were unnerved by an increase in the number of novel coronavirus cases and little progress on the US stimulus package, while the Australian dollar hit an one-week low after RBA Governor John Lowe hinted at possible easing.
In terms of copper, Lun lead continues to weaken Erlianyin, without good support, and international lead prices may continue to weaken. Overnight, Shanghai lead continued to weaken, breaking 14500 yuan / ton first line, reaching a recent low, regenerated lead cost line may provide support to stop the decline. The price of lead in SMM1# is expected to fall by 100 yuan per ton today.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the prospect of economic recovery in the second outbreak is concerned about the volatile performance of copper prices.
As for aluminum, concerns about the epidemic will always be an important macro factor affecting aluminum prices. in addition, we need to pay attention to the news released by the US election process and the impact of the US government's remarks on economic development on market sentiment. On the domestic side, aluminum prices are expected to maintain a strong range in the early post-festival period. In the short term, the current structure of low inventory is stable, the spread of aluminum structure in Shanghai is opening near delivery, and the trend of contracts in recent months is strong. In the later stage, we pay attention to inventory changes, consumption feedback in the fourth quarter and the actual impact of this year's heating season on the upstream and downstream.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] Alumina prices fell slightly and paid attention to the production restrictions in heating season in various provinces and cities.
In terms of lead, Lun lead continues to weaken, without good support, and the international lead price may continue to weaken. Overnight, Shanghai lead continued to weaken, breaking 14500 yuan / ton first line, reaching a recent low, regenerated lead cost line may provide support to stop the decline. The price of lead in SMM1# is expected to fall by 100 yuan per ton today.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Lun lead, Shanghai lead, second consecutive decline in recycled lead, refined lead discount to maintain downstream procurement bias towards recycled lead
In terms of zinc, overnight macro sentiment dominated the trend of zinc prices, while the dollar fell overnight. If inflation expectations force the dollar to remain low, it is expected to continue to provide support for Lun Zinc. Pay attention to macro guidance in the short term. Shanghai zinc, the United States fiscal stimulus negotiations stalemate, superimposed post-holiday spot market transactions slightly light, market sentiment cooled.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Zinc spot market turnover is light and market sentiment is cooling.
In terms of nickel, this week, Lunni is expected to be 14800-15500 US dollars / ton and Shanghai Nickel 115000-120000 US dollars / ton. Overnight, Shanghai Nickel closed in Zhongyang column, Shanghai Nickel Jump Station was above the moving average, and the shadow line reached the 119000 mark. The recent fundamentals of nickel were strong. Jinchuan Nickel supply declined in a short time due to production accidents, and the shortage of raw materials could not be alleviated. The high price of nickel and iron has been operating steadily, and the demand for stainless steel is weakening, but there is no obvious reduction in production. At present, the possibility of a sharp correction in nickel prices is relatively small. Today, we will pay attention to whether Shanghai Nickel can break through the 119000 integer pressure level.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Jinchuan Nickel Shengshui maintains high level of nickel pig iron buyers and sellers are still playing games.
In terms of black series, the thread fell by nearly 0.9%, hot coil by nearly 1.5%, stainless steel by nearly 0.8%, coke by nearly 0.9%, coking coal by nearly 0.5%, iron ore by nearly 2.2%, and iron ore by nearly 2.2%. According to the SMM data model, calculated on the basis of 127.1 US gold, the profits of thread and hot coil in long-process steel mills are currently maintained at about 45 yuan / ton and 95 yuan / ton respectively, which is 55-195 yuan / ton lower than at the beginning of last month. The poor profits of steel mills are often dominated by the rigid demand for raw materials, and the mainstream medium-and low-grade mines are still favored by steel mills. On the other hand, considering the expectation that domestic port inventory will continue to accumulate, steel mills' acceptance of high iron ore prices has weakened, and ore prices are still under pressure in the near future.
[minutes of SMM Steel Morning meeting] profit from finished products has declined, rigid demand for raw materials has been suppressed.
Crude oil rose nearly 1 per cent in the previous period, and us crude oil futures closed higher on Wednesday as the (OPEC) and its allies complied with an agreement to cut production in September, despite fears that the recovery in fuel demand would be stalled by a surge in the number of new cases around the world. Crude oil inventories in the United States fell more than expected last week, as well as gasoline and distillate stocks, according to data released by the American Petroleum Association (API) on Tuesday.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 0.1%, while Shanghai silver fell nearly 0.9%. Comex gold futures closed higher on Wednesday, rebounding from the previous session's sharp decline as the dollar weakened and uncertainty surrounding the US election and global economic recovery boosted the attractiveness of safe-haven gold. Analysts pointed out that the dollar index fell on the day, yields fell to support gold, and we also saw some technical buying, perhaps because yesterday's correction went too far.
As of 09:50, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
