After the epidemic, as the only A-class auto show in the world in 2020, the Beijing auto show injected a shot in the arm to the recovery of China's auto market. In the past year, the pattern of the automobile market has changed greatly. Electrification and intelligence have spawned a new revolution, and the industry reshuffle is still going on. This auto show seems to better reflect the future development trend than in the past.
Through this auto show, Auto House has had face-to-face exchanges with celebrities in the industry, including Changan, Guangzhou Automobile, SAIC, Xiaopeng, Huawei, Bosch and so on, in an attempt to predict the new development trend of the automobile industry in the next five years. to provide a new perspective and reference for the industry.
New technology: "all-in-one" electric drive
If you want to gain insight into new technologies, you can't miss the parts booth, which you want to talk about from a segment of Huawei.
Why do you want to mention Huawei specially? A person from a car company working with Huawei said: "Why does Hua do it all, and then layer the car cake to find out the part with the most core competitiveness and the highest input-output ratio to eat?" Perhaps, from the Huawei booth, we can get an insight into the technological development trend of the automobile in the next five years.
Sure enough, what impressed me most in this auto show was a "three-in-one" electric drive system and a "all-in-one" electric drive system DriveONE. On the first day of Media Day, senior executives of auto companies, including GAC R&D CENTER, Geely Automobile, BYD, Xilai Automobile and BAIC, showed up at the Huawei booth for interactive exchanges.
In recent years, "three-in-one" electric drive systems integrated with motors, reducers and inverters have sprung up like bamboo shoots after a spring rain. Due to the use of integrated design to simplify the external wiring between parts to achieve lightweight, cost-saving and other purposes to gain the favor of the industry, but from the mass production point of view, the coverage of models in the market is not much, is still in the initial stage of the market.
Overall, foreign suppliers take the lead in "three-in-one" electric drive products. For example, at this auto show, BergWarner highlighted iDM, an integrated electric drive system suitable for pure electric drive and P4 hybrid. Competition in this field is fierce. It is reported that the GAC Aion series and Co-Chuang are equipped with the "three-in-one" of Japanese electricity, Mercedes-Benz EQ uses the "three-in-one" of ZF, and Dongfeng Shenyi Hyun adopts the "three-in-one" of the Continental Group.
What are the competitive advantages of Huawei's "three-in-one" electric drive products as a latecomer? In this regard, Chen Wei, general manager of Huawei's powertrain business in smart electric field, told Auto Home, "if you pay the cost alone, it doesn't make any sense to do it, and it's not Huawei's turn to do it." Huawei layout electric drive field, in addition to being able to firmly grasp the core technology (electronic control) in its own hands, Huawei's design and integration capabilities are also industry-leading.
When asked which electric drive technology is the development direction in the next five years, Chen Wei gave a clear answer is "all-in-one" electric drive. According to reports, this is the industry's first super-fusion power domain solution, highly integrated motor, MCU, PDU, OBC, DCDC, reducer, BCU seven major components. It not only realizes the deep integration of mechanical parts and power components, but also brings intelligence into the electric drive system, which can upgrade OTA and achieve the integration of end-cloud coordination and control.
It has been revealed that Huawei's "three-in-one" electric drive products have received orders from the main engine factory and will be announced later, while "all-in-one" electric drive products will be the first to be used in BYD models and are expected to be mass produced next year.
New route: hybrid market is growing rapidly
After talking about the new technology of electric drive, we will naturally think of the new energy vehicles at this auto show. According to statistics, the new energy models on display at this auto show account for 40%, which can really compete with fuel models.
There is no doubt about the trend of electrification, but a feature can be found from this auto show. More and more car companies are still digging for more possibilities of energy saving and emission reduction of fuel vehicles, so hybrid technology has been valued by major car companies.
In communication with Huang Heng, head of marketing and marketing of GAC Toyota, it was learned that at present, GAC Toyota accounts for about 12% of hybrid vehicle sales, and will work towards 25% and 30% in the future. In his view, pure electric vehicles still need to overcome the pain points such as mileage anxiety and infrastructure, and the proportion of pure market-driven electric vehicles is low, which should be set according to the maturity of future technological development.
At present, in terms of the performance of the overall hybrid vehicle market, the joint venture is still the main consumer in China's automobile market, and such a huge consumption base has laid the foundation for the joint venture to develop new energy vehicles. For example, Guangzhou Auto Honda has accumulated sales of 170000 hybrid models. In order to enrich the hybrid product line, Guangzhou Automobile Honda established a sharp hybrid alliance this year to achieve hybrid products in the car, MPV and SUV markets.
In addition, many brands continue to be optimistic about plug-in hybrid vehicles. Liu Bo, executive vice president of Changan Automobile, told Auto House: "the composition of cars will change greatly in the future, among which the proportion of electric cars will be quite large." And in my judgment, the proportion of plug-in hybrid vehicles will be very large and grow rapidly in 2021 or 2022. "
Geely also made it clear in its recent reply to the inquiry letter of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange that Geely currently adopts a full-technology layout in the field of new energy vehicles, that is, it also involves 48V light hybrid technology, gas-electric hybrid technology, pure electric technology, fuel cell and methanol fuel and other technologies.
This also coincides with the 2.0 version of "Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy vehicle Technology" released by the country on the eve of the auto show. According to some data, new energy vehicles have been developed for 11 years and subsidized for 11 years. At last, the annual sales of new energy vehicles, which do not rely on policy and rely solely on strength to move consumers, currently account for less than 1% of the market share.
If hybrids and plug-in hybrids, which are relatively important fuel-powered hybrids, are included (the addition program is mainly electric), the National Information Center predicts that by 2029, the "fuel vehicle camp" will still occupy 77.2% of the absolute mainstream market. Therefore, the new direction put forward by the new technology roadmap will enhance the importance of hybrid vehicles in the future development to a certain extent.
New relationship: the concurrence of the industrial chain will be reconstructed
Under the impact of electrification and intelligence, the "competition and cooperation" effect in the automobile industry chain is being magnified. "1x 1 > 2" is not a hypothesis, but a business logic written by countless enterprises after testing the water. Judging from the situation of the Beijing auto show, software-defined cars are leading the industry trend, and the relationship between mainframe factories and suppliers is being restructured in the future.
At the ARCFOX α T pre-sale conference at the Beijing Auto Show, Xu Zhijun, Huawei's rotating chairman, and Klaus Drobnak, vice president of Magnus Steyr Asia, also appeared on the ARCFOX α T platform. Cooperation with Huawei is a change. ARCFOX is responsible for hardware and Huawei is responsible for software, with a clear division of labor between the two sides. This is a new business model. " Said Liu Yu, general manager of BAIC New Energy.
"cars are no longer an one-shot business, but after buying a car, like a smartphone, through constant OTA upgrades, enjoy a better experience." Xu Zhijun said, "in this process, the traditional business model of buying and selling between parts manufacturers and car companies is not suitable. It is necessary to create new business models and cooperation models in order to cope with the competition of vertical integration like Tesla."
It is agreed in the industry that the technology path of self-driving is changing from bicycle intelligence to vehicle-road coordination, so industry cooperation and cross-domain cooperation will become the main theme in the next five years.
During this year's Beijing Auto Show, BYD DiLink signed a cooperation agreement with Mushroom Motor Union, and the two sides will cooperate on intelligent transportation. Specifically, in the country's first open 5G commercial vehicle road collaborative demonstration road, the two sides initially realized more than 300 traffic critical incident scenarios. At the same time, the self-driving test of road collaborative guidance is carried out on the development version of BYD's mass-produced model Qin Pro EV to promote the evolution of self-driving technology.
Similarly, parts giant Bosch and Tencent announced a strategic cooperation during the auto show, and the two sides will carry out in-depth cooperation in areas such as the Internet of things and artificial intelligence. "the mobile travel industry in the future will be larger and richer, which requires not only the continuous innovation and application of technology, but also the interconnection within the whole travel ecology and the cooperation and sharing of industrial partners." Dr. Xu Daquan, executive vice president of Bosch China, said, "Open cooperation between the two sides can create better and more valuable travel services for users."
In addition, the concept of "competition" of enterprises has gradually become blurred, and "competitor" is a pronoun that the industry likes to use. Liao Qinghong, chief talent officer and vice president of sales of Xiaopeng Automobile, said when communicating with Auto Home, "A single tree does not make a forest. Even if it is a powerful Tesla, it is difficult without the maturity of the entire industry chain."
In Liao Qinghong's view, no matter whether it is Tesla, or Weilai, Xiaopeng, ideal, and other enterprises, we will dance together on this "stage," learn from each other's strengths and make up for their weaknesses, and learn from each other. This is a process of healthy development. As in the past, Huawei internally called Ericsson, Nokia, Siemens and other companies as "competitors", we grow together to build the entire industrial chain, and finally rely on products and services to win the love of the people, this is the vitality.
New elements: rejuvenation and cultural integration
This year's auto show can also gain insight into a new element, that is, the integration of youth and culture. According to the statistics of QuestMobile, by 2021, more than 70 yuan for every 100 yuan consumed in cities will be spent by young people.
"rejuvenation" has become the slogan of all automobile companies, and "Z era" and "trendy style" have become the words with the highest frequency in the mouth of automobile brands. Every new car and every event seems to be more or less "made for young people".
Liu Zhen, SAIC GM Cadillac brand director, said at the booth that "at present, nearly 50% of all Cadillac models are from consumers under the age of 35."
In addition, Cadillac accounts for 33% of the female consumer group. Liu Zhen believes that in the process of "getting younger," women have become a very large group of car buyers, and we do not want the brand to move in the direction of feminization, but we hope that the brand will not vote against it when women make decisions.
Changan Automobile mentioned the user structure of UNI-T in the press conference of this auto show, and the proportion of post-90s users is as high as 55%, which is significantly higher than the overall level of Changan's own brand.
"to cope with the pressure on the products of the first-tier joint ventures, we have to face the competition with the joint ventures," said Liu Bo, executive vice president of Changan Automobile. "in addition to the product itself, Changan is also increasing its attractiveness to the young consumers of the post-90s through the UNI Planet Social Circle, driving log sharing, changing neighborhoods and other ways. UNI-T sales have risen rapidly since its launch in June, selling more than 10,000 vehicles in July and August."
It needs to be emphasized that the younger generation of consumers are more culturally confident, and the popularity of the Imperial Palace is rooted in this background of the times. Similarly, Generation Z has a more rational understanding of products than we thought, which means that brands are no longer so sensitive, which is an opportunity for Chinese brands.
At this year's auto show, Roewe injected Chinese culture into automobile design to complete the transformation from form to spirit. Roewe RX5 PLUS ingenuity Guochao Collection Edition is built to celebrate the 600th anniversary of the completion of the Imperial Palace, and further highlights the characteristics of the National Chao on the basis of the original positioning of "New Guochao Intelligence Network SUV".
"We should not only enlarge the scale, but also make the transformation with the thinking of users. Playing well the three cards of 'new', 'country' and 'tide' is the starting point for the successful transformation of SAIC Roewe." Yang Xiaodong, vice president of SAIC and general manager of SAIC passenger cars, said.
A number of industry insiders believe that the publicity of the design, high-standard performance, is the performance of younger hard core strength. But this is only the first step in building a "younger" at present. In the next five years, with the large-scale popularity of smart cars, there will be cloud technology, chips and other application systems, how to let consumers understand, need a lot of transformation. This also puts forward a new proposition for car companies how to tell the story of "getting younger" next.
Summary:
From the point of view of new technology, new route, new relationship and new elements, this paper predicts the development trend of automobile in the next 5 years. To sum up, when new elements continue to enter, when the technological route is vague, when consumer groups change, when industrial convergence continues to occur, and when external factors of the macro environment are caught off guard, the rapid upgrading and transformation of car companies are becoming their new competitiveness. everyone hopes not to be subverted by the industry, but to promote a new wave of growth with the help of subversion.
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