Barrick Mining's Copper-Gold Project Plans to Start Production in 2028; Overnight, Both LME Copper and SHFE Copper Closed Lower [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

Friday, April 3, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,286.5/mt and fluctuated downward in early trading to a low of $12,212/mt. Copper prices then fluctuated upward, with the center rising to $12,408/mt, before moving lower again to close at $12,348.5/mt, down 0.99%. Trading volume reached 20,000 lots, and open interest stood at 295,000 lots, an increase of 3,702 lots from the previous trading day. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,660 yuan/mt and fell to 95,300 yuan/mt in early trading. Copper prices then fluctuated upward, with the center reaching a high of 96,680 yuan/mt, before fluctuating downward to close at 96,150 yuan/mt, down 0.08%. Trading volume reached 36,500 lots, and open interest stood at 181,000 lots, a decrease of 1,608 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long liquidation.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) On Thursday, April 2, Barrick Mining said that its Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan still planned to achieve first production by the end of 2028. The project is a large copper-gold development jointly advanced by Barrick, the Pakistani government, and relevant joint venture partners, and is located in Balochistan, Pakistan. Although the company had previously warned that the capital budget disclosed earlier for the project's two phases could face a significant increase, the 2028 production target remained unchanged.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of April 2, the SHFE copper 2604 contract opened lower with a gap, then continued to fall before stabilizing and rebounding. It opened at 96,870 yuan/mt and fell all the way to 96,310 yuan/mt after the opening, then rebounded to 965,599 yuan/mt, after which prices continued to decline and fluctuated between 96,120 yuan/mt and 96,300 yuan/mt. Prices then fell rapidly to a low of 95,780 yuan/mt before stabilizing and rebounding somewhat. By the close, the price stood at 96,070 yuan/mt. The Contango price spread between futures contracts for nearby months was between 60 yuan/mt and 10 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for the SHFE copper nearby-month contract was between a profit of 90 yuan/mt and 190 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain in the doldrums. Supply side, the import window has opened, and expectations for subsequent inflows of cargoes from outside China have strengthened. Some imported cargoes circulated during the day, continuing to pressure spot discounts. Meanwhile, according to SMM, some smelters had pre-holiday destocking needs and intended to accelerate shipments, further increasing circulation pressure in the spot market. Demand side, downstream enterprises still had limited acceptance of current price levels, with overall procurement still dominated by just-in-time procurement and insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. However, as the Qingming Festival approached, some downstream enterprises had pre-holiday stockpiling demand, which could provide some support to the spot market, but was expected to be insufficient to reverse the overall weak supply-demand pattern. Overall, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2604 contract are expected to remain at current levels today.
(2) Guangdong: On April 2, spot prices for Guangdong #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were quoted at a premium of 200 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 110 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from yesterday; and SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 50 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from yesterday. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 96,365 yuan/mt, down 660 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 96,260 yuan/mt, down 660 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, both inventory and copper prices fell, suppliers actively held prices firm, and overall trading was better than yesterday.
(3) Imported copper: On April 2, the average warrant price was unchanged from the previous trading day at $65/mt (price range $60-70/mt); the average B/L price was unchanged from the previous trading day at $61/mt (price range $56-66/mt); and the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price was unchanged from the previous trading day at $34/mt (price range $28-40/mt), with quotations referring to cargoes arriving from mid-April to early May.
(4) Secondary copper: On April 2, the futures closing price at 11:30 was 96,070 yuan/mt, down 800 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premiums were -50 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On April 2, copper scrap prices fell 300 yuan/mt MoM, the copper scrap sales sentiment index dropped to 2.41, the procurement sentiment index fell to 2.35, and the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was -91 yuan/mt, down 457 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 970 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, as copper prices pulled back, many secondary copper rod enterprises said the volume of secondary copper raw materials available for purchase in the market was limited. If copper prices do not show a rebound after Qingming holiday, insufficient raw material procurement may lead to a decline in secondary copper rod production.
Prices: From the macro perspective, initial jobless claims in the US pulled back last week, and the labour market remained broadly stable; uncertainty persisted in the geopolitical situation in Iran, and related statements failed to ease market risk-off sentiment, helping drive oil prices sharply higher. Coupled with expectations of potential further escalation in conflict, global risk appetite cooled and the US dollar strengthened, weighing on copper prices. Fundamentals, supply side, arrivals in China narrowed slightly, but imported cargoes have continued to arrive recently, leaving overall market circulation relatively ample; demand side, downstream enterprises showed low acceptance of current copper prices, with procurement mostly maintained at rigid-demand pace and insufficient willingness to restock in volume. Inventory side, as of April 2, SMM copper inventories across major regions in China fell 14.04% WoW from last Thursday and were up 53,800 mt YoY, with inventories having entered a destocking cycle for three consecutive weeks. Overall, copper prices are expected to remain in the doldrums today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make prudent decisions and should not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]