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[SMM Daily Review] Nonferrous generally recovered Shanghai lead still fell more than 2% US dollars and stabilized Shanghai Silver up nearly 2%.
Sep 25,2020 17:14CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM9 March 25 News: on Friday, domestic commodities rose and fell mixed, stopping the previous three consecutive days of large-scale decline. The domestic non-ferrous metals market is red, fat, green and thin. By the end of the day, Shanghai lead fell 2.75%, Shanghai tin fell 1%, Shanghai zinc fell 0.24%, Shanghai aluminum rose 0.36%, Shanghai copper rose 0.39%, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.99%. In terms of lead, on the supply side, in terms of primary lead, the production of domestic smelters is stable, the maintenance of smelters has been completed one after another, and production has resumed. In terms of recycled lead, the supply of waste batteries is still tight, the price remains high, and the cost support of recycled lead is the main factor supporting the price of lead. On the consumer side, large lead-acid battery enterprises still maintain the rigid demand in the peak season, mainly for long order purchase, the transaction of bulk order is limited, and the downstream pre-festival reserve database has been basically completed. Overall, consumption is difficult to provide upward momentum for lead prices.

[SMM Analysis] has the fundamentals of Shanghai lead suddenly plummeted to cloudy?

In terms of lead, the consumer side downstream of the fundamentals is weak, while in the macro aspect, due to the influence of repeated overseas epidemics and disputes between China and the United States, the market macro sentiment is generally empty, coupled with a strong pre-festival risk aversion mood, Shanghai lead is expected to shock and weaken before the festival, focusing on 14700 yuan / ton support at night.

[brief Review of lead in SMM period] lead in Shanghai breaks down and is expected to weaken before the festival.

In terms of nickel, Shanghai Nickel closed at Xiaoyangzhu today. this week, Shanghai Nickel closed for the first time, standing at the 113000 yuan mark, alternately increasing and decreasing positions during the day, Shanghai Nickel shock operation, K-column breaking through the 5 / 60 daily moving average, paying attention to Shanghai Nickel standing steady at 113000 pass / ton and exploring 114000 yuan / ton at night.

[SMM Nickel brief Review] Nickel near Shanghai Nickel 113000 Yuan / ton during the day consolidation at night, pay attention to whether Shanghai Nickel can stand firm at this level and explore the 114000 pass.


For the black system, the thread fell 0.7%, the hot coil fell 0.27%, stainless steel rose 1.06%, coke fell 0.44%, coking coal fell 1.23%, and iron ore fell 0.2%. In terms of hot coil, the total inventory of hot-rolled coil this week is 4.0639 million tons, with a month-on-month ratio of + 0.75% and + 25.71% compared with the same period last year. This week, the total hot rolling inventory continues to accumulate, the month-on-month growth rate has narrowed, the year-on-year growth rate is more obvious. The market looked forward to the "Golden Nine" and pre-festival replenishment market has not been obvious performance, has always been in a lukewarm state, resulting in poor storage conditions. In addition, according to SMM statistics, the impact of hot rolling maintenance in domestic mainstream steel mills in October is about 536000 tons, which is significantly higher than that in previous months, and it is expected that the hot rolling output will decline in October. However, taking into account the "stagnation" of market demand during the National Day holiday, even if the overall production has a downward trend, it is difficult to drive the hot volume down in the short term, and it is expected that there will still be accumulated pressure after the National Day to suppress the rebound in hot volume prices.


Crude oil rose 0.64% in the previous period, and US crude oil futures prices rose slightly, trading above $40, but the weekly line is expected to decline because of growing concerns that a widespread rebound in the novel coronavirus epidemic will hit fuel demand. at the same time, the possibility of resuming crude oil exports in Libya has also raised some doubts.

In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose 0.37%, Shanghai silver rose 1.96%, and international spot gold prices rose slightly on Friday as the market renewed expectations that the United States would introduce more economic stimulus measures, but gold prices are expected to record their biggest weekly decline in more than a month due to the strength of the US dollar. Analysts point out that the recovery of the dollar is a resistance to all precious metals. The outlook for gold is also under pressure on the next US stimulus package and whether a deal will be reached.

Closing during the day, contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:


Today's capital flow


Although the domestic futures index as a whole stopped the frenzied decline, but the National Day Mid-Autumn Festival holiday is approaching, investors are more willing to "hold money for the festival", the Mandarin Commodity Index suffered a reduction of 440000 positions, with an outflow of 2.507 billion yuan. All plates showed a net outflow of funds, including crude oil plate, oil chain, precious metal plate blood loss of more than 500 million yuan.


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