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Trump said amazing again! The precious metal deep V rebounded and the three major oils plummeted.
Sep 25,2020 08:07CST
translation
Source:Futures daily
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM: on the 23rd local time, US President Trump spoke out again, publicly refusing to promise to transfer presidential power peacefully if he lost the election at the White House news conference, and declared that the result of the election may eventually be decided by the Supreme Court.

In testimony to the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell said mortgage defaults and tenant evictions could increase if the U.S. government does not provide further financial assistance to mitigate the economic impact of novel coronavirus's epidemic. Powell and U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin also said they may reallocate unused funds from the $2.3 trillion aid package to help American households and businesses. The White House and Congress are locked in a stalemate over a new round of negotiations on fiscal relief measures.

As of the afternoon close of September 24, most domestic commodity futures closed down. Precious metals, non-ferrous metals and oils were among the leading declines, with Shanghai Silver down 7.47%, Shanghai Gold down 2.28%, Shanghai Aluminum down 3.66%, Shanghai Tin down 2.99%, Shanghai Zinc down 2.14%, soybean oil down 3.37%, rapeseed oil down 2.77%, and palm oil down 3.95%.

Recently, the price of precious metals has continued to fall, and the international price of gold once fell to a two-month low. International gold and silver prices rebounded slightly on Thursday. As of the close of the day, the COMEX gold December contract closed at US $1876.9 per ounce, an increase of 0.45%. The Comex silver futures contract closed at US $23.196 per ounce, an increase of 0.39%.

After the three major oils hit new highs on Monday, the grease sector began a three-game decline. Palm oil fell the most on Tuesday, followed by soybean oil, followed by rapeseed oil. Rapeseed oil also accelerated its decline from Wednesday to Thursday, but the overall decline was still smaller than that of soybean oil and palm oil. By the afternoon close on Sept. 24, all three fats had fallen below key integer support, with soybean and palm oil giving up almost all of last week's gains and rapeseed oil giving up half of last week's gains.

Precious metal deep V rebound, non-ferrous pressure downward

Recently, the price of precious metals has continued to fall, and the international price of gold once fell to a two-month low. International gold and silver prices rebounded slightly on Thursday. As of the close of the day, the COMEX gold December contract closed at US $1876.9 per ounce, an increase of 0.45%. The Comex silver futures contract closed at US $23.196 per ounce, an increase of 0.39%.

Lin Xinjie, an analyst at Shenyin Wanguo Futures, said that the global stock index began to fall on Monday, while recent US economic data performed relatively well, with the rebound in the US dollar index superimposed by the rebound in the epidemic in Europe and market risk aversion demand. on the one hand, it seizes the safe-haven function of gold, on the other hand, it increases the cost of gold and silver investment.

In the view of Cheng Xiaoyong, director of Baocheng Futures Research Institute, the reasons for the decline in silver prices in this round actually showed signs in late August: first, the epidemic in Europe and the United States rebounded, which on the one hand intensified the market's concern about the economic recovery in Europe and the United States, and cooled down inflation expectations; on the other hand, as the epidemic in Europe was more serious than in the United States in the near future, the economic recovery in the euro area will be weaker than that in the United States for some time to come. The Flag Economic accident Index also fell more than 50% from its high in early August, weakening the euro against the dollar and giving the dollar momentum to rebound. Second, the US election and market risk aversion also brought momentum to the rebound of the dollar, and this round of stock market falls in Europe and the United States may lead to liquidity risk. In the case of rising liquidity risk, the stock market and precious metals will fall at the same time, and silver will also suffer a sell-off. Third, the possibility of the Fed's monetary policy becoming more loose has declined, as explained at the September interest rate meeting, the nominal interest rate of the US dollar has stopped falling and rebounded, superimposed that the inflation index of the United States in August is weaker than expected, and the real interest rate of the US dollar has rebounded significantly from its low level, which means that the opportunity cost of continuing to hold overvalued silver has risen, leading to a significant cooling of investment demand for silver, which can be verified by the redemption of the global silver ETF. As a result, the rebound in the exchange rate of the US dollar and real interest rates has led to a sharp drop in silver investment, and the logic of investor selling appears in the market. In order to stop the decline in silver in the future, we still need to see whether the rise in real interest rates in the US dollar will peak and whether investment demand will pick up.

"there is no doubt that the trigger for the sharp fall in precious metals is the second outbreak of the epidemic in Europe." Wang Yanqing, a futures analyst at CITIC Construction Investment Co., Ltd., said that World Health Organization (WHO) officials recently said that the new confirmed cases of COVID-19 every week in Europe have exceeded the peak level in March this year, and the situation is very serious. The rebound in the epidemic has forced European governments to step up epidemic prevention and control measures, restart social isolation, market fears of another bottom of the economy have also risen, panic has put the market back into selling mode, and the dollar index continues to rise. Precious metals are therefore under pressure.

The reporter learned from the interviewees that the sharp fall in gold and silver was partly due to the failure to fulfill previous expectations. The rally in gold and silver at the end of July was driven by the EU recovery Fund and accompanied by expectations of the exit of a new US fiscal stimulus package, but market expectations have been damped by the lack of further action in both monetary and fiscal policy in the near future.

However, from the point of view of the factors affecting precious metals, the overall state remains stable. In terms of the market environment, US bond yields remained stable, indicating that the market liquidity is not tight, while the strength of the dollar index is also limited. Judging from the incident, the Fed interest rate meeting said that it remained dovish, but did not further ease, but continued to call for fiscal policy support, while the new round of fiscal stimulus package in the United States is still at an impasse.

Due to the previous excessively high rise and large adjustment demand, gold and silver as a whole fell sharply with the adjustment of market risk sentiment, especially silver, which was greatly affected by risk sentiment, fell sharply, while the investment value decreased at the same time. The fundamentals of high inventories and weak industrial demand failed to support, causing it to fall by more than 20% in a single month. Gold, on the other hand, is more resilient than silver, supported by low real interest rates and geopolitical risks. "bears will dominate the market in the short term, and it is expected that after the global stock market stabilizes and the extreme market, gold will return to a wide range of oscillatory consolidation, resilience may continue to be stronger than silver, and there is still room for upside in the long run. In terms of strategy, we can continue to hold the strategy of comparing the price of gold and silver, and we can lay out more gold after the volatility decreases. " Lin Xinjie said.

The deterioration of the second epidemic in Europe continued to ferment on Thursday, the dollar index continued to recover, market sentiment was complex and volatile, inflation expectations fell, and colored varieties continued to come under pressure.

Hu Pan, a non-ferrous researcher at Haitong Futures, believes that in terms of copper, there is still some support for the low level of LME inventories, but Lun Copper will continue to be under pressure under the influence of the US dollar, and there are still no obvious signs in the domestic peak season, and the second epidemic in Europe should not be taken lightly, and the uncertainty it brings to the economy will eventually affect copper prices. In terms of aluminum, the current negative factor is still due to the pressure of new electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and the delay in consumption in the peak season, the bullish factor is that expectations in the peak season are still at a low level and the inventory level is still at a low level, and it is expected that the current mood will have a release process. Later, we need to see the change in demand. In terms of zinc, the expectation of resuming supply at overseas mines is relatively consistent, but its progress is still uncertain. Recently, inventory has accumulated slightly, but the whole is still relatively low. Short-term zinc prices are fluctuated greatly by macro factors. In the future, we need to pay attention to the changes of processing fees and inventory, and we can pay attention to intertemporal opportunities. In terms of nickel, the short-term mine end price is strong, supporting Ferro-nickel price, but the demand for stainless steel is weak, inventory accumulation, price is weak, suppress stainless steel production, short-term nickel price is weak, but it will still be driven by new energy demand in the medium and long term.

The three major oils have fallen sharply after reaching new highs.

After the three major oils hit new highs on Monday, the grease sector began a three-game decline. Palm oil fell the most on Tuesday, followed by soybean oil, followed by rapeseed oil. Rapeseed oil also accelerated its decline from Wednesday to Thursday, but the overall decline was still smaller than that of soybean oil and palm oil.

By the afternoon close of September 24, the three major oils had all fallen below the key integer support level. From Monday to Thursday, soybean oil fell 6.19%, palm oil 7.77%, and rapeseed oil 2.18%. Among them, soybean oil and palm oil gave up almost the whole week's gains, while rapeseed oil gave up half of last week's gains.

Recently, Powell's latest speech shows that the Federal Reserve has no intention of continuing marginal easing. Crude oil prices have not risen sharply because of the decline in inventories, and the dollar index also began to rebound on September 21. As a result, outer disk commodities have fallen sharply and transmitted to China, precious metals, black, and chemical commodities have declined across the board, and grease has not been spared.

The reporter found that the opening and decline of domestic oil and fat followed the decline in the price of beans in the United States. From the point of view of positions, the legume oil markets at home and abroad are all declining positions, which is largely due to the active profit reduction sentiment of the bulls. A detailed analysis of the fundamentals of the oil itself does not show an obvious reversal.

Xie Wen, an analyst of futures agricultural products at CUHK, told reporters that there are four points worth paying attention to in the fundamentals of oil and fat:

First, with the opening of the harvest of American beans and the reduction of the position of soybeans to be harvested in our country, there is indeed a certain pressure on the disk of beautiful beans, challenging the support level of 1000 cents / bushel. And, the net long position that the fund increases continuously for many weeks needs to make a profit to close the position.

Second, China is still buying beautiful beans, and the United States is still selling soybeans to other regions. Since the fall on September 21, China has still bought 402000 tons of soybeans from the United States, and the United States has sold 561000 tons to unknown places. Meidou's exports have not seen a significant contraction for the time being.

Third, although the stock market for the Mid-Autumn Festival is coming to an end, and there is a strong wait-and-see mood downstream against the background of falling oil prices, it is still an unchanged fact that oil stocks are low, and there are not many oil stocks that can be circulated in the market, therefore, short-term high base spreads may still be maintained.

Fourth, the unexecuted contract of soybean oil continues to climb, the subsequent procurement of soybean oil is still strong, and the import of rapeseed oil has not been liberalized.

The reporter learned from people in the industry that according to the current situation of oil fundamentals, it is judged that when the harvest rate of US beans is higher than expected, the market has the mood of making profits, and prices fall back accordingly, while the fundamentals of oil and fat do not show an obvious turn. Especially when the National Day holiday is approaching, with the few remaining trading days before the festival, the possibility of capital return is small, and after the price correction is in place, the funds may have the willingness to continue to do long after the National Day. The trend of oil before the festival may be neutral and empty, and there may still be opportunities to do long after the festival.

For the future, Xie Wen believes that with the arrival of the fourth quarter, the strength of the three oil may be divided. In addition, in addition to paying attention to the fundamental impact of oil itself, we also need to pay attention to the dollar index, crude oil prices and the guidance of major macro events on the market.

Affected by the external market, the stock index opened low and dived.

On September 24, the stock index continued to dive after opening low. by the close of the day, Shanghai 50, CSI 300 and CSI 500 were down 1.74%, 1.92% and 2.31%, respectively.

Thursday's market adjustment was triggered by a sharp fall in US stocks overnight and a deep adjustment in global stock markets so far this week. the adjustment in the peripheral markets has a lot to do with the recent deepening of the spread of the overseas novel coronavirus epidemic and the market's uncertainty about the Fed's further penetration into the economic ability in the future. at the same time, the end of the quarter is the time point for the expiration of more stock index futures and options in the world. The market tends to fluctuate sharply at this stage. "overseas influence is only the trigger for the adjustment. The A-share index has maintained a range of oscillations since July, and Thursday's decline once again challenged the lower boundary of the range, but the index can still maintain the general trend of previous box use." Everbright futures macro researcher Han Yinglang said.

Wang Yang, an analyst at Shenyin Wanguo Futures Index, believes that there are three reasons for the short-term decline in A-shares: first, the impact of overseas risks is a drag on the performance of the A-share index. The world's major indices have been weak recently, with the Dow down 1.92% on Sept. 23, as Fed officials collectively warned of the economic outlook, worried about a slowing economic recovery and inadequate fiscal stimulus. As the US economy returns to its pre-80 per cent level, the pace of improvement will slow in the future, and although the Fed says it will maintain interest rates close to zero for an extended period of time, the market is still looking forward to more stimulus measures. The Dow Jones index has fallen 5.86% since September, and the high correction in technology stocks is one of the reasons. The short-term science and technology contest between China and the United States has also made it more difficult for our country to develop the science and technology industry. Recently, the resurgence of the epidemic in Europe has directly dragged down the European stock market, and the pharmaceutical and biological sector has once again attracted financial attention. Second, it is necessary to choose the direction after the high horizontal plate oscillation of A-share. Since late July, A shares have been mainly in the horizontal oscillation, the follow-up index of the need for further factors to stimulate, and the current lack of a big positive to promote the second round of rise. For incremental funds, on the one hand, there is a certain adjustment to open room for follow-up profits, it is possible to have a trend opportunity again; on the other hand, the market may start a new round of rise driven by a better-than-expected economic recovery. Third, it still takes time to digest the high local valuation of A-shares. At present, the valuations of food and beverage, leisure services, medicine and biology and other industries that are favored by funds are at a stage high, and there is a need for adjustment under the support of no continuous improvement in performance.

"the possibility of the marginal loosening of market liquidity in September is relatively small, and liquidity has been relatively tight in the past period of time. There are only four trading days before the National Day, and the overall wind bias of funds will remain weak; in the past two months, the index has been continuously adjusted. The current changes in capital and news have no obvious signal to boost market sentiment; from the point of view of the trend of the moving average, there is a demand for each major index to move closer to the monthly average." Han Yinglang said that in combination with several aspects, the room for short-term index adjustment has been basically in place, but the time has yet to be digested, and industries with relatively high valuations such as pharmaceuticals and consumption, which rose sharply in the first half of the year, are still likely to adjust further in the short term. it will also put pressure on the index. Liquidity and capital risk appetite may pick up after September, and investors should pay close attention to the emergence of new mainlines with sustainability at this stage.

The reporter learned in the interview that in the macro aspect, there are mainly two macro factors affecting overseas markets: on the one hand, with the development of the novel coronavirus epidemic overseas, the number of new confirmed cases in many European countries reached a new high in the past week, and many countries have taken measures to restrict travel, which has a direct impact on the risk appetite of funds. The prices of risk funds such as global stock markets and commodities have fallen sharply since the beginning of this week. On the other hand, the monetary and fiscal policy changes adopted by overseas governments and central banks in hedging novel coronavirus's impact and stimulating the economy, especially the Fed's monetary policy trends. There is a seesaw effect in novel coronavirus's epidemic situation and monetary policy, and the loose policies of overseas central banks will not withdraw until the epidemic is effectively controlled or vaccines appear, especially before the US general election. Novel coronavirus's epidemic control and the normalization of economic operation are the major prerequisites for the withdrawal of the loose policy.

"for the future, still optimistic about the future of the stock index space, but due to economic constraints and macro-environmental interference, the stock index may still be repeated. Short-term stock index lack of upward power, coupled with the upcoming long holiday, the willingness to start the market before the capital festival is not expected to be high, the future still need to be cautious. " Wang Yang said.

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