SMM9 March 24: on Thursday, domestic commodities as a whole continued a large-scale decline. The domestic non-ferrous metals market was green across the board. By the end of the day, Shanghai Aluminum fell 3.66%, Shanghai Tin fell 2.99%, Shanghai Zinc fell 2.14%, Shanghai Copper fell 1.8%, Shanghai Nickel fell 0.67%, and Shanghai lead fell 0.48%. Among them, aluminum, in addition to the macro European epidemic fermentation, a sharp rebound in the dollar index to suppress aluminum prices, and fundamental consumption delays, new capacity has been identified negative factors, there are no other major negative factors for the time being. After the release of sentiment, aluminum prices are not expected to fall smoothly under the current current structure and inventory conditions, and there are still repeated possibilities in the future. At present, the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum narrowed to the lower edge of the new box range after a short-term sharp decline, and continued to pay attention to the changes of capital flow and the impact of macro news trends on the market in the later stage.
[SMM analysis] Aluminum supply is not obvious in the long-term short-term consumption season. Although the aluminum price is weak, it may be repeated.
Copper, today, Shanghai copper overcast, fell below the Brin rail and 60-day moving average support, the technical side of copper prices are still under pressure. In the evening, we will pay attention to the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States and the trend of the US dollar in the week ending September 19 to test whether Shanghai Copper can hold the 50500 mark.
[brief Review of SMM Copper] Dollar Index surpasses its 8-week high and Shanghai Copper is under pressure.
In terms of lead, Shanghai lead reported cross star, the lower is supported by the 5-day and 10-day moving average, the KDJ index is still exposed upward, at the same time, the fundamental downstream trading activity has rebounded compared with the previous period, the demand for replenishment is still on the low side, and the tight supply of waste batteries makes the cost of recycled lead high, but macroscopically, we still need to guard against the adverse effects of overseas market turmoil and Sino-US trade disputes, and it is expected that the trend of lead consolidation in Shanghai will continue before the National Day.
[brief Review of lead in SMM period] Shanghai lead horizontal market oscillations should be on guard against macroscopic unfavorable factors.
In terms of black series, thread rose 0.59%, hot coil rose 0.46%, stainless steel rose 2.26%, coke fell 1.16%, coke fell 1.22%, iron ore rose 0.33%. A few days ago, Shaanxi-Jin Ganchuan construction steel enterprises held a summit forum in Xi'an to reach a consensus on in-depth joint production reduction, and resolved to reduce the supply of building materials by stopping blast furnace, reducing scrap ratio, overhauling and adjusting varieties in advance, etc. Reduce by about 32000 tons per day to reduce the supply pressure in the market and maintain the order of the spot steel market.
"[SMM thread] Shaanxi-Shanxi-Ganchuan Steel works has jointly reduced production, with an estimated average daily reduction of 32000 tons.
The last period of crude oil fell 1.54%, both supply and demand, the outlook for oil prices is not optimistic, the global second epidemic continues to ferment, the current market sentiment is very similar to the first round of the epidemic, the strong return of the US dollar, other risky assets such as stocks and commodities are generally under pressure, intra-day market risk appetite has further cooled, and Asian stock markets have fallen sharply. In addition, investors believe that as demand is still weaker than expected, the global oil market will not be able to absorb the impact of OPEC + member countries' planned production.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell 2.28%, Shanghai silver fell 7.47%, and international gold prices fell to a two-month low, weighed down by a strong dollar, which held firm near more than eight-week highs as fears of the epidemic damaging the economy were reignited. Investors are also worried about the uncertainty of U. S. economic stimulus policies. Gold prices cannot escape the influence of a strong dollar, which spreads to all asset classes. And Congress is likely to continue to get stuck in negotiations on a new stimulus package, so the outlook looks very pessimistic in the short term.
Closing during the day, contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
Today's capital flow
In terms of capital flow, the overall net outflow of domestic goods is still dominated by the net outflow of funds. The Mandarin Commodity Index suffered a reduction of 280000 positions, with a net outflow of 2.969 billion yuan. The grease chain continues to be the target of public criticism and has been abandoned by 2.969 billion funds. The outflow of precious metals funds slowed, and Shanghai Bank gained 52200 hands to increase its position, with an inflow of 224 million yuan, ending the previous continuous net outflow.