SMM, Sept. 24:
Battery terminal market:
From the point of view of the power market, the production schedule of the whole car factory increased significantly in September and October, driving the operating rate of power battery enterprises to rise. Among them, ternary batteries are affected by new energy passenger cars, and orders are expected to increase by 30% month-on-month in October. In addition, new energy commercial vehicles began to power after a slight decline in the market in July and August, leading to a further increase in demand for iron-lithium batteries. In the small power market, with the basic implementation of the plan to launch shared motorcycles this year, the demand for batteries has fallen sharply and is expected to fall by nearly 40% in October. The demand for other civil two-wheelers and electric vehicles such as takeout and express delivery has not changed significantly for the time being, and the overall trend is relatively stable. Overall, the demand for batteries in the electric two-wheeler market is expected to fall by about 20% in October.
Price of upstream raw materials:
Cobalt: Tesla battery daily release, high-nickel ternary battery is still its main application, although the trend to reduce cobalt, but the production base of new energy vehicles increases, the demand for cobalt is increasing in the short term. From the spot market point of view, the spot inquiry order of cobalt intermediate goods has increased recently, and the transaction price of a small amount of cobalt oxide is about 12 US dollars / pound; the recent trading volume of cobalt tetroxide has increased, and the transaction price has begun to appear at 210000 yuan / ton, with a quotation of 21. 5-220000 yuan / ton.
Lithium: industrial-grade lithium carbonate inventory is tightening this week, low-cost supply has been gradually reduced, low prices are expected to be raised this week; battery-grade lithium carbonate prices are more stable this week, downstream purchases from large factories there is a shortage of supply, some transaction prices are about 41000 yuan / ton, a small number of transactions in 415-42000 yuan / ton, has not yet formed the mainstream trading volume.
Cathode materials and precursors: in terms of ternary precursors, the downward trend of raw material prices is obvious, downstream is bearish on future prices, and precursors are under pressure. At present, the demand of the power market increases obviously, the market signs long orders, and the price changes little. But the small power and digital market, due to the decline in downstream orders, coupled with fierce market competition, the downstream price is serious, of which the price has been close to 78000 yuan / ton, the market expectation for the future is poor.
Nickel: recently, the price of nickel has been greatly affected by the macro impact, the US dollar index rose metal generally under pressure, nickel shock fell, battery-grade nickel sulfate than the first-grade nickel (bean) premium has reached more than 12000 yuan / ton, can completely cover the precursor plant using nickel beans / powder to produce liquid nickel sulfate processing fees, battery-grade nickel sulfate market turnover is light, nickel bean powder procurement increased. As the spot of battery-grade nickel sulfate is still tight, the market quotation remains at 275-28000 yuan / ton, and the possible transaction price is 2.7-27800 yuan / ton.
1. [Musk: expect the Shanghai factory to achieve its annual production target of 1 million cars] Musk said that Tesla's return in the past year is relatively satisfactory, and I believe it will be very good in the future. In the past year, in terms of factory expansion, our team in Shanghai built a factory within 15 months. We, Tesla, are the only 100% foreign-funded car company in China. We expect the Shanghai factory to achieve its annual production target of 1 million vehicles.
[BYD wins the largest order for pure electric buses in Finnish history] BYD announced on September 22nd local time that it had signed an order for 106pure electric buses with Nobina, the largest public transport operator in northern Europe, and officially entered the Finnish market. This is another major breakthrough in BYD's European territory after Germany.
3. [Volkswagen ID.4 will be put into production in 5 factories on 3 continents] on September 24th, Volkswagen will officially launch its first MEB platform electric SUV new ID.4 online. Now Volkswagen has hired executives as spokesmen for electric cars to introduce its future electric strategy and confirm that it aims to sell 500000 ID.4 units a year.
SMM battery materials research team
Huo Yuan 021-51666898
Mei Wangqin 021-51666759
Liu Xiaoyi 021-51666716