[SMM Metal Breakfast] Zinc mine supply is tight throughout the fourth quarter * global primary aluminum production fell again in August * Lun Copper Lunxi rose more than 1% and continued to rise.

"[overnight] Lunxi rose more than $1 per cent to an eight-week high and US stocks closed higher and COMEX futures fell again.

"[macro outlook] focus on September Markit manufacturing PMI evening release of US July FHFA house price index in Germany and Europe

Today's focus

[ICSG: has a global supply shortage of 235000 tons of refined copper in the first half of the year] the refined copper market turned to a supply shortage of 235000 tons in the first half of this year, following a surplus of 130000 tons of refined copper at the end of the first quarter, according to data released on Monday by (ICSG), an international copper research group. In the first half of this year, adjusted for changes in bonded warehouses in China, the global refined copper supply showed a shortage of 278000 tons, ICSG added. "View details

[Alcoa supports the elimination of Canada's 232 tariff] Tom Dobbins, president of the American Aluminium Association, said after referring to the announcement by the Office of the United States Trade Representative that tariffs on unwrought or P1020 aluminum imports from Canada would be lifted. After the decision is implemented, trade in unalloyed and unwrought aluminum is likely to return to normal in the last four months of 2020. "View details

(IAI: global primary aluminum production fell again in August to a three-year low) Global (excluding China) daily primary aluminum production fell to 69800 tons in August, the lowest level in nearly three years, according to data released by the International Aluminum Association ((IAI)) on Monday. Global primary aluminium production, excluding China, was 2.165 million tonnes in August, down slightly from the previous month and lower than the same period last year. "View details

[Xinjiang Development and Reform Commission: announcement on the implementation of ladder electricity Price by Electrolytic Aluminum production Enterprises in 2019] Xinjiang Oriental Hope Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd., Xinjiang Asia Aluminum Power Co., Ltd., Xinjiang Shenhuo Coal Power Co., Ltd., Xinjiang Tianlong Mining Co., Ltd., Xinjiang Jiarun Resources Holdings Co., Ltd., Xinjiang Zhonghe Co., Ltd., Eight electrolytic aluminum production enterprises, including Tianshan Aluminum Co., Ltd., eighth Division of Xinjiang production and Construction Corps, and Xinjiang sixth Division Aluminum Co., Ltd., in 2019, the AC power consumption of liquid aluminum electrolysis conforms to the national energy consumption standards. The price of electricity in 2019 will still be subject to the current standard and will not be increased.

[SMM analysis: high position VS low position order lead repeat July "soft position" drama? Lead fundamentals: 1. In terms of production, the monthly output of primary lead smelting enterprises decreased by 3.8% month-on-month in July due to centralized maintenance; in September, production is expected to drop by about 3.7% month-on-month due to maintenance factors. 2. From the point of view of inventory, the social inventory of lead ingots was 36500 tons in the week of July 10 and 35400 tons in the week of September 18. This is also two months apart, the recurrence of lead in Shanghai is one of the fundamental conditions of the same market. "View details

[tight supply of SMM: zinc mine throughout the fourth quarter good short-term bullish zinc price] fundamentals, recently, some smelters are worried about the ore supply in the fourth quarter, the winter storage time is ahead of schedule, and there is more demand from short-term smelters, which to a certain extent leads to tight zinc concentrate supply and a decline in domestic processing fees. According to the investigation of SMM, as of September 18, the TC of domestic zinc concentrate was 5300 yuan / metal ton, which was 200 yuan / metal ton lower than that of the week of September 11. The TC of imported mines has been falling since August, indicating that the supply of overseas zinc mines is also tight, and the supply side is expected to still have support. "View details

[SMM analysis: nickel price drop spot transaction increase "air" short-term dilemma] spot point of view, due to a large decline in nickel prices, active spot market enquiries, transactions significantly increased compared with yesterday. Today, the price of nickel beans remained stable as a whole, with a sticker of 800 to 700 yuan per ton, and there was also a certain deal in the morning market, but it is reported that some battery factories have already prepared goods in the early stage, so the discount has not continued to rise. With the correction of nickel price, the advantage of nickel bean autolysis over the outsourcing of battery-grade nickel sulfate is gradually emerging; traders who have been hoarding for more than a month have begun to export goods, and the transaction price is in the middle position of the mainstream bulk single spot transaction price in the market. This week will enter the regular procurement node, market trading volume may increase slightly, but due to the checks and balances of nickel beans and trader shipments, the high price of battery-grade nickel sulfate is expected to decline. "View details

[SMM brief comment: the stainless steel futures price loses the 14000 mark and the spot price is firm and expected to fall.] at present, according to the market reflection of the spot transaction performance is OK, and near the National Day holiday, a small number of downstream are preparing to purchase, it is expected that in the later stage, the spot price of stainless steel will be mainly stable, while the futures contract will be greatly affected by the macro news, and pay attention to the related impact of the nickel price, but from the cost side, there will be a certain cost support around 14000 yuan / ton. There is limited room for continued decline. "View details

[SMM manganese ore] on September 22nd, the price of imported manganese ore showed an overall downward trend, in which the transaction price of semi-carbonic acid in South Africa was around 35 yuan / tonnage, 44% of Brazil was 35 yuan / tonnage, and the lowest of high-speed rail in South Africa was 30 yuan / tonnage. The extremely cautious attitude of purchasing in the market made the short-term mine transaction weak, and some traders intended to clear inventory and withdraw funds to sell goods at low prices.

[notice on the promulgation of the revised business rules of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon] was examined and adopted at the fourth meeting of the Seventh Council of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and reported to the China Securities Regulatory Commission. Zheng Shangsuo has revised the relevant contents of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon futures in the "rules for delivery of Futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange" and "measures for the Administration of Standard Warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange", and now publishes the amendment. The revised part of the Futures delivery rules of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange shall enter into force from the 2110 contract of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon futures, and the revised part of Article 115 of the measures for the Administration of Standard Warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange shall enter into force as of the date of promulgation. other amendments shall enter into force as of October 30th, 2020. "View details

[SMM high-carbon ferrochromium] on September 22nd, there was no obvious adjustment for high-carbon ferrochromium, but there was concern in the market that the price caused by chromite inventory was virtual. Due to the obvious increase in chromite inventory in ports across the country last week, the national inventory totaled 4.0437 million tons, a weekly increase of about 9%, of which Tianjin Port was about 2.93 million tons, with a weekly increase of about 15%. The inventory pressure restricts the inventory of downstream iron mills before the National Day holiday. It remains to be seen that the short-term chromium ore may show the trend of upper body force.

[Longji plans to build (Phase III) annual 10GW single crystal silicon rod construction project in Lijiang] on September 21, 2020, Longji Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. announced that on the basis that Lijiang annual 5GW single crystal silicon rod construction project (phase I project) and Lijiang annual 6GW single crystal silicon rod construction project (phase II project) have all been put into production, according to the strategic development needs, Signed the Investment Agreement with Lijiang Municipal people's Government on the third phase of single crystal silicon rod project (annual 10GW single crystal silicon rod construction project), and reached a cooperation intention for the company to increase investment in the construction of annual 10GW single crystal silicon rod project in Lijiang. "View details

[Hangzhou thread inventory 942000 tons on September 22nd, 41000 tons out of storage yesterday] on September 22, 2020, according to market statistics, 41000 tons were released from storage yesterday, an increase of 6000 tons over the same period last week, and Hangzhou thread inventory was 942000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons over the same period last week.

Important news of metals and industry

[Tongling Nonferrous: more than 100 tons of copper overproduction planned last week at the Milado Copper Mine] Tongling Nonferrous said on the interactive platform that after learning from the controlling shareholders that the relevant situation at the Mirado copper mine was greatly affected by the epidemic, production was suspended from March 23 to August 25, and production resumed on August 26, which had a great impact on the project's annual production plan. After resuming work and production, the production and operation is in good condition. Last week, the production of copper metal exceeded the plan by more than 100 tons. The group company is going all out to speed up the pace of reaching the standard and production of the project.

[Gansu Guotong becomes the designated delivery warehouse for aluminum futures] the announcement issued by the last company approves that Gansu Guotong Commodities supply chain Management Co., Ltd. will become the designated delivery warehouse for aluminum futures of our company. The notice said: it is agreed that Gansu Guotong Commodities supply chain Management Co., Ltd. should become our designated aluminum futures delivery warehouse; from the date of the announcement (that is, September 22, 2020), the company's warehouse, No. 968 Shandan River Street, Lanzhou New District, Lanzhou City, Gansu Province, has become our designated aluminum futures delivery warehouse with an approved storage capacity of 10,000 tons and a regional discount of 350 yuan / ton.

[Shandong Zouping fine alumina production capacity will reach 1 million tons this year] in recent years, Zouping City, relying on aluminum resources planted for many years, has continuously deepened cooperation with domestic and foreign strategic partners, and is committed to creating the core area of the world's high-end aluminum industry base. The city has actively extended the industrial chain of aluminum-based products and opened up a new industrial path for alumina, namely chemical alumina, focusing on high-purity α-alumina, capacitive corundum and high-end mold material industrial clusters, sapphires, wear-resistant and heat-resistant materials, etc., to cultivate and strengthen the fine alumina industry, and the scientific and technological content and added value of related products have been greatly improved. At present, 10 related projects have been signed in Zouping City, and 2 projects have been ignited and put into production. The price of deep-processed products is 20-1.2 million yuan per ton. The production capacity of fine alumina will reach 1 million tons this year, and will exceed 2 million tons in the next three years.

[the original aluminum output of Longxi Branch of Dongxing Aluminum Company completed 74228.43 tons before August in the second electrolysis operation zone of Dongxing Aluminum Company] by August, the primary aluminum output of Longxi Branch had reached 74228.43 tons, with an overproduction of 1178.43 tons; the qualified rate of original aluminum quality was 98.2%, which was 2% higher than the plan; and the average cost of molten aluminum decreased by 23.05 yuan / t ·Al compared with the plan.

[a number of aluminum-related projects in Xingxian County, Shanxi Province will be put into production in October] according to information from the government of Xingxian County, located in Xingxian Economic and technological Development Zone, Baotou Yihe rare Earth Aluminum Co., Ltd. 50,000 tons of aluminum alloy rod 50,000 tons alloy wire project, Shanghai Zhengan material Trading Co., Ltd. 50,000 tons of casting aluminum alloy and supporting castings project, Hebei Yatai Electric Power hardware Co., Ltd. 80,000 tons of aluminum power hardware project will be put into production in October this year. At present, the development zone has introduced four new material industry projects with a total investment of 2.31 billion yuan, and two projects are being docked. After all, the goal of "aluminum water will not fall to the ground" can be achieved.

[South South Aluminum processing 6016 aluminum alloy automobile plate project entered the stage of mass production] in September 2020, the first 6016 aluminum alloy engine cover plate supplied to Xiaopeng Automobile by Guangxi Nannan Aluminum processing Co., Ltd. was successfully completed and loaded on the production line of Xiaopeng Automobile in Guangdong Zhaoqing production line, which marked that the first aluminum alloy automobile outer plate project of South South Aluminum processing officially entered the stage of mass production.

[cloud Sea Metal: some products will be used for modelY] Cloud Sea Metal said on the interactive platform that the company has a steering wheel skeleton and small aluminum extrusions for model, and some products will be used for modelY. The company is Tesla's second-class supplier and has not directly signed a supply contract with Tesla.

[AVZ Mining increases its stake in the Manono lithium / tin project in the Democratic Republic of the Congo to 75 per cent] AVZ Mining has revealed that it will increase its stake in the Manono lithium / tin project in the Democratic Republic of the Congo to 75 per cent. Based on the 75 per cent project equity, AVZ's share of the project's net present value (at a 10 per cent discount) will increase from $616 million to $771 million. On a 100 per cent basis, the project has a net present value of more than $1 billion and an internal rate of return of 33 per cent. "View details

Recently, Tangshan Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd. successfully completed the material certification of 12 parts of thermoformed steel T1500HS for Pentium T77 model of FAW Pentium car Company, and signed a technical agreement on thermoforming steel T1500HS with FAW Group, and the two sides have made important achievements in cooperation.

[Shanghai International Energy Trading Center: the corresponding margin collection standard for delivery invoices has been adjusted from 20% to 15%] according to the study, starting from October 15, 2020, the corresponding margin collection standard for delivery invoices of Shanghai International Energy Trading Center has been adjusted from 20% to 15%. The deposit will be refunded after the members have completed the VAT invoice.

[Dajishan Tungsten Industry Sikengkou braided Underground Power "Safety net" since the beginning of this year, in order to further improve the management level of underground power consumption and ensure the reliability and safety of underground power consumption, Jiangxi Dajishan Tungsten Industry Co., Ltd. around the "Electroweb reliable, effective training, inspection standards, management in place" 16-character principle of power safety, weave underground power "safety net".

[divine material: lithium hexafluorophosphate in electrolyte is basically self-supplied] Tianci material said on the interactive platform: lithium hexafluorophosphate in the company's electrolyte is basically self-supplied, and its proportion to the cost of lithium battery is not convenient to announce for the time being.

[emerging industries promote a significant increase in rare earth consumption] according to the analysis of people in the industry, in the development of China's seven strategic emerging industries in the future, rare earths will be used in almost every industry, and this demand is often irreplaceable. even if it is replaced, it will bring negative effects such as the sacrifice of environment and performance. In terms of quantity and volume, the future industry represented by emerging industries may be the smallest part of China's industrial structure, but from the perspective of potential and prospect, cultivating future industry is to seize the opportunity of frontier technology industrialization and enhance the core competitiveness of enterprises.

[gold] the world's largest gold ETF--SPDR Gold Trust position is 0.59 tons lower than the previous day, and the current position is 1278.23 tons.

[Baosteel Packaging plans to be in the newly formed can Plant in Bengbu City, Anhui Province] Shanghai Baosteel Packaging Co., Ltd. held the 36th meeting of the Fifth Board of Directors on September 21, 2020. The meeting examined and passed the "motion on the new Anhui aluminum cans production line project". The company plans to build a new cans factory in Bengbu City, Anhui Province. The design capacity of the first phase of the project is 1.1 billion cans / year, and the total investment of the project is estimated to be about 440 million yuan.

[que Bo of the Shanghai Stock Exchange: the Shanghai Stock Exchange will further strengthen the research on the equilibrium mechanism and stability mechanism] the Shanghai Stock Exchange will further strengthen the research on the market equilibrium mechanism and stability mechanism: first, to balance the interests of both investors and financers, to promote the adequacy and effectiveness of market pricing; second, to step up efforts to promote the construction of the market credit system, which plays a core role in the capital market.

[the corresponding margin collection standard for previous delivery invoices will be adjusted from 20% to 15%] from October 15, the corresponding margin collection standard for previous delivery invoices will be adjusted from 20% to 15%, which will be refunded after members have completed the VAT invoice.

Macro focus

CSRC: it is necessary to fully understand the complexity and arduousness of the stock reform of gem, treat the new situation in the reform objectively, rationally and professionally, and adhere to the means of market-oriented rule of law to promote the stable and healthy development of gem. Comprehensively and dialectically grasp the organic relationship between "building system, non-intervention and zero tolerance". Properly handle the relationship between the government and the market, further improve the system, so that the market has a clear expectation of regulatory behavior.

Premier Li Keqiang: the financial system has played an important role in restoring economic growth. It is necessary to continue to maintain the reasonable strength of financial policies to support the real economy, promote service innovation, and expand inclusive finance. Guard against financial risks. We will create a better environment, guide the misplaced development and fair competition of large, small and medium-sized financial institutions, and more effectively support the real economy.

TF2012, the main contract for 5-year treasury bond futures, rose 0.13% to 100.320%, and T2012, the main contract for 10-year treasury bond futures, rose 0.34% to 98.545. The interest rate on 10-year government bonds fell 1.36bp to 3.09 per cent, while the interest rate on 10-year bonds fell 0.76bp to 3.64 per cent.

The HKMA injected a total of HK $961 million into the banking system on September 22nd to defend the linked exchange rate system.

British Prime Minister Johnson: from September 24 local time, all bars and restaurants in England must be closed at 10 p.m., and people working in the service industry, including bar, shop and taxi drivers, must wear masks. People are encouraged to work from home, except for those in key positions. In addition, the school will remain open. These measures are likely to be implemented for six months.

According to CME Fed Watch, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates in the 0.5% range in November is 100%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.25% is 0%, while the probability of keeping interest rates in the 0.25% range in December is 100%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 0%.

On the 22nd local time, Peruvian Minister of economy and Finance Alva revealed that the country may officially enter the fourth phase of economic recovery on October 1, when, in addition to reopening stadiums, cinemas, entertainment centers and other places, restaurants and shopping centers will also be allowed to expand reception capacity in commercial places that are already open. Alva said that on the 23rd local time, the Council of Ministers will discuss and approve the restart plan for the fourth phase of economic recovery.

Terminal information

[Jingke Energy helps Japan's largest oil company to build Japan's first gas station photovoltaic power plant] recently, Jingke Energy announced an intention to cooperate with Japan's largest oil company, ENEOS, on the components of the virtual power plant (VirtualPowerPlants) project. "View details

[Tesla talks on setting up an R & D center in India] Tesla is currently negotiating with officials of the Karnataka government of India to open an R & D center, which is in the early stages. Karnataka is the first Indian state to develop an electric vehicle policy that aims to increase significant investment in zero-emission technology. According to Avendus, an Indian financial services company, sales of electric vehicles in India are expected to exceed 3 million by 2025.

[the energy storage industry is on the verge of breaking out. Costa joined hands with Ningde era to add new growth points] recently, when asked by investors on the interactive platform, Costa said: the energy storage industry has a very broad market space and is facing an outbreak. The company is one of the first enterprises to lay out and possess the core technology of energy storage. The joint venture company with Ningde era will soon be put into operation in Ningde. And in the future, we will take energy storage as the core, promote the development of integrated business models such as "optical storage" and "integration of storage and charging", and the new energy business will become a new profit growth point for the company. "View details

[Tesla will reduce the cost per kilowatt hour by 7 per cent by embedding the battery directly into the car structure] Mr Musk said the battery would be built directly into the car structure, an innovation inspired by the fuel tank on the wing of the aircraft. The structural battery will reduce the overall weight of the vehicle. This will reduce the total number of parts required (by 370 parts) and speed up production. And most importantly, it will reduce the cost per kilowatt-hour by 7%.

[Musk: Tesla sales can still grow 30 to 40 per cent in 2020] Musk said Tesla's sales increased by 50 per cent in 2019 and that Tesla's sales will grow by 30 to 40 per cent in 2020 despite the impact of the epidemic.