SMM: early this morning, the Federal Reserve issued a statement after concluding its two-day September FOMC meeting. Us stocks, which were originally high, fell with the announcement, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq closed down 1.25%.
What exactly did the Fed do to cause investors to sell stocks? In fact, the Fed has done little: interest rates have not changed, its bond-buying programme has not changed, it continues to stress the need to maintain the current loose monetary policy for a long time, and makes it clear that inflation will be allowed to "overshoot" for some time before full employment is achieved.
Andrew Brenner, head of NatAlliance's international fixed collection business, said that everything showed that the Fed seemed to have done what it needed to do, not to extend its bond purchases, to increase its purchases of long-term bonds, or to control the yield curve, and equity investors finally began to face the reality that the Fed was not as dovish as initially expected, so the market gave up all its gains.
But the Fed is not doing nothing, offering an outlook for 2023. Fed officials believe the unemployment rate will fall to 4 per cent by 2023 and PCE, the core inflation indicator the Fed is concerned about, will rise to 2 per cent. The updated interest rate "scatter chart" shows that US interest rates will still be zero at that time.
Despite the negative reaction from the market, judging from the attitude of Wall Street analysts, most still believe that the meeting is still positive for the market.
Dennis DeBusschere, an analyst at Evercore ISI, said that the question now is whether these goals can be achieved from the current US economic growth outlook, and if people believe that these goals are possible, then weekly stocks will win and the market will continue to move higher.
John Bellows, an asset manager at Western Asset, said the Fed has actually explained its next policy options, foreshadowing that easing will continue for years to come:
I think what the Fed is doing today is to tell you what monetary policy looks like until the end of the epidemic, when policy is still loose and interest rates are still zero.
I think the Fed's announcement is going a little fast, and they didn't wait for everything to be clear. But tell you now, tell you what the policy will be like after the epidemic, and then it will still be loose, this is because they need to let inflation up, need to address the imbalance in the economic recovery.
Mona Mahajan, a strategist at Allianz Global Investors, agrees that the Fed's statement today is positive for the market:
I think this is still a "don't fight the Fed" situation. Until there is a real economic recovery and inflation picks up, interest rates will remain low at least for 2021 or 2022.
The effect of "no other choice" will still shine in the foreground, which means that stocks, parts of the bond market and even gold will be supported in the coming months.
Remember, we do face shocks for a certain period of time, but these are the so-called "walls of worry", and the market will continue to rise, and even strategic layout opportunities will emerge.
Speaking of gold, Rosenberg Research founder David Rosenberg is even more blunt, the Federal Reserve made it clear that interest rates will remain low for a long time, which is the most obvious "buy gold" signal.
If this is not a "buy gold" declaration, then I don't know what it is.
In addition to gold, Rosenberg noted that at a time when nominal interest rates are near zero and real interest rates are already negative, interest rate-sensitive investments such as growth stocks and housing will also benefit.
But it is worth noting that there are cautious voices on Wall Street. Joseph Carson, a former chief economist at the Alliance Bernstein, said that although the Fed's outlook shows that interest rates will remain close to zero until 2023, there is a question mark over its history whether it can actually do so.
He said that two years ago, when the US economy was still relatively strong, the Fed was raising interest rates, and Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell said at that time that interest rates would rise further in the future. But three months after that, the Fed suspended interest rate hikes. Six months later, he directly changed his face and began to cut interest rates.
Another voice in me tells me that the risk for policy rates is that interest rates may rise faster than the Fed currently expects.
Scan the code and apply to join the SMM Metal Industry Exchange Group.