SMM9 March 16: today's domestic metal market green manure red thin, by the end of the day, Shanghai nickel fell 1.17%, Shanghai copper fell 0.82%, Shanghai lead fell 0.76%, Shanghai tin fell 0.03%, Shanghai aluminum rose 0.31%, Shanghai zinc rose 0.6%. Among them, nickel, the afternoon continuous diving decline of nearly 2%, and then recovered, SMM believes that the fundamental focus of nickel prices is still inclined to the nickel ore-nickel iron-stainless steel industry line. The price of nickel ore has risen all the way under the condition of considerable shortage of supply. The high price of Ferro nickel has been supported by both raw material support and tight supply. The mentality of high production in stainless steel plants has not been significantly reduced for the time being. This production line still has a strong support for nickel price. However, the fluctuation of macro factors has obviously disturbed the price of nickel in the short term. Today, the price of nickel seems to have fallen sharply due to the influence of capital sentiment in the afternoon. However, the US dollar index fell rapidly after the close of trading in Shanghai, and Lunni immediately went back to intraday highs, followed the Fed's interest rate resolution in the evening, and is expected to maintain loose liquidity. Short-term Shanghai Nickel may continue to fluctuate at 117000-120000 yuan / ton and Lunni 15100-15400 US dollars / ton.
[SMM analysis] Shanghai nickel afternoon diving decline was close to 2% supply-side tight support logic will be loosened?
Copper, today Shanghai copper overcast, KDJ opening convergence, did not break the concussion pattern. In the evening, we will pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision to see if the bulls can make efforts to support Shanghai Copper to return to the 52000 mark.
[brief Review of SMM Copper Futures] the market waits for the Fed's interest rate resolution to maintain the volatility of copper prices.
In terms of aluminum, Shanghai aluminum opened high and left low today, the range was weak and concussive, and the daily line closed in Xiaoyin. Shanghai Aluminum recently rebounded from low position reduction, short-term demand-side uncertainty limits the space above, focusing on macro data disturbances and capital inflows.
[SMM aluminum brief review] transaction volume warehouse receipts reduce narrow range shock of Shanghai aluminum
In terms of lead, Shanghai lead reported to close the Changyin line, the k line entity wore the 5-day moving average, the KDJ index converged down again, the technical index showed a negative trend again, considering that the price of waste batteries was easy to rise and difficult to fall, and the cost of recycled lead was supported, while the purchasing demand downstream was general, the upward power of Shanghai lead was insufficient, it was expected that Shanghai lead would maintain a volatile market in the short term, and at night, attention should be paid to whether bears would further test the first-line support of 14900 yuan / ton.
[brief Review of lead in SMM] Shanghai lead closing Changyin Night attention 14900 support
In terms of black system, thread fell 1.79%, hot coil fell 2.07%, stainless steel fell 2.35%, coke fell 3.03%, coking coal fell 1.11%, iron ore dropped 5.07%, the risk of "gold, nine and silver ten" peak season is relatively high, if the subsequent demand can not break out, the follow-up price may be mainly a pullback. At present, it is expected that there will be some falsification of demand, coupled with the tightening of urban real estate, and compared with the first half of the year, the north will enter the heating season in mid-late November, the suppression of terminal demand will appear again, and it will be more difficult to go to the warehouse. However, in the short term, steel prices may be dominated by weak shocks. After all, cost support is still in place, cement shipments are rising, digging machine sales hit a new high in the same period, and fundamentals still have support. In the future, we will focus on the change of production and whether the inventory can decline effectively.
[SMM analysis] expectation of failure, panic, regenerated rebar stepping into weak concussion
Crude oil rose 3.68% in the previous period, and oil prices expanded further on Wednesday. Us WTI crude futures rose 2.56% to $39.26 a barrel, while Brent crude futures rose 2.37% to $41.49 a barrel. Hurricane Sally approached the coast of the Gulf of Mexico, shutting down about 27% of oil production in the northern Gulf of Mexico; four more tropical cyclones are crossing the Atlantic. Data released by API on Tuesday showed that US crude oil inventories fell unexpectedly sharply last week; Japanese imports fell more than a quarter in August from a year earlier.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell 0.31%, Shanghai silver fell 0.24%, and international gold prices held firm as investors waited for the results of the Federal Reserve policy meeting to be released at 2:00 on Thursday and the subsequent Powell press conference to learn more about how the Fed balances interest rates and inflation targets.
Closing during the day, contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
Today's capital flow
In terms of capital flows, the overall performance of non-ferrous metals is stable, but more than 1.1 billion funds have quietly flowed out, and Shanghai copper and nickel have lost about 400 million respectively. Precious metal funds also left quietly, with more than 800 million funds leaving the market after a massive haemorrhage in Shanghai Bank. The chemical sector lost 570 million of its funds, mainly due to the outflow of methanol hot money of more than 500 million. However, the black department fell collectively, with 680 million funds entering the black chain index to promote price changes, while iron ore fell by more than 5%, with 463 million funds alone. Grease is relatively strong, with 522 million financial support.
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