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[institutional point of view] the upstream nickel mine is strong while the downstream stainless steel is weak and the turnover of high nickel iron is light for the time being.
Sep 16,2020 10:00CST
translation
Source:Huatai futures
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM Network News:

Nickel varieties:

As the tight supply situation of nickel ore is difficult to improve, the transaction price of nickel ore has risen by leaps and bounds recently, the supply of nickel ore market is scarce, and the nickel iron factory is also selling at a high price. Most of the nickel iron orders of the current nickel iron factory are signed until early October, but due to the decline in stainless steel prices, the acceptance of high-priced nickel iron downstream is not high, buyers and sellers have differences, nickel iron trading is light for the time being. Last week, nickel mine port inventories continued to pick up slightly, but it is still at an all-time low, with the rainy season approaching in the Philippines, and there is not enough time to prepare for nickel ore consumption during the rainy season. After the Philippines enters the rainy season in the fourth quarter, the domestic nickel mine supply may be in short supply.

Nickel point of view: nickel prices have recently been dragged down by the external environment, but the overall upward trend has not yet ended. At present, the supply and demand of nickel is still strong, the prices of nickel ore, high nickel iron and scrap stainless steel continue to rise, the supply of nickel ore in the middle line is tight, the positive feedback of stainless steel demand on nickel price may continue to strengthen, and the domestic demand for new energy vehicles is also gradually recovering. sales of new energy vehicles in Europe are growing rapidly, and nickel supply is in short supply in the third quarter. If the new production capacity of Xiangyu stainless steel in Indonesia is put into production as scheduled in the fourth quarter, or the domestic production of 300 series stainless steel remains at the current high level, the excess supply of nickel and iron in the fourth quarter will also be limited. In the middle line, as the new production capacity of Ferro nickel in Indonesia is put into production one after another, the supply of ferronickel in Indonesia will still become a significant surplus in the future. Nickel in Indonesia can still be further replaced by refined nickel in 304 stainless steel nickel raw materials, and the price of nickel in the middle line may still fall again.

Nickel strategy: unilateral: the nickel price is treated with more caution, and it is adjusted in the short term under the influence of the external environment, but the overall strong trend remains unchanged. The center line is empty.

Key points of nickel concern: Indonesian nickel mining policy, macro environment, epidemic situation and policy changes in the Philippines and Indonesia, Indonesian nickel iron production progress, supply changes of large traditional nickel enterprises.

Varieties of stainless steel:

Stainless steel point of view: due to the consumption of weak stainless steel short-term maintenance adjustment phase, but the high cost of the lower space is difficult to open. Recently, the end price of nickel raw materials is still strong, the cost of stainless steel remains high, the willingness of steel mills to raise prices is strong, and the inventory downstream is low. In the later stage, if demand improves, there may still be a seller's market in short supply. Consumption in peak season may be delayed but will not be absent. In the middle line, the supply pressure of Ferro nickel in Indonesia will all affect the price of stainless steel. with the gradual surplus of ferronickel supply, the price of stainless steel may follow the cost downward, and the price of the middle line will be short.

Stainless steel strategy: short-term high stainless steel prices and peak season demand has not yet started, the price has entered the adjustment stage, but the lower cost support is strong. The center line is empty.

Key points of stainless steel concern: Indonesian nickel mining policy, Qingshan Group trading price, epidemic situation and policy changes in Philippines and Indonesia, stainless steel inventory, stainless steel positions and deliverables, NPI in China and Indonesia and stainless steel production progress.

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