SMM News: September 9, in the overnight outer disk encountered "Black Tuesday" under the influence of domestic commodities, the stock market encountered "Black Wednesday", under the influence of panic, the whole fell sharply.
However, at a time when everyone was worried about how to go in the future, the performance of the outer disk market last night exceeded expectations, and international crude oil prices rebounded significantly. Major stock indexes in Europe and the United States (such as Dow Jones, NASDAQ, S & P 500, FTSE 100, etc.) have all ended in red.
In the US stock market, the "three consecutive declines" came to an end. The Dow rose nearly 440 points, the s & p closed up 2%, the biggest gain in three months, and the Nasdaq rose 2.7%. Tesla, which fell 21 per cent on Tuesday, closed up nearly 11 per cent, while Apple, which fell more than 6 per cent on Tuesday, closed up 4 per cent. American Airlines fell, but China Airlines shares rose sharply.
After falling more than 7% the day before, American oil stopped falling and rebounded, rising 4% at one point in intraday trading and finally closing up more than 3%. Gold and silver rose in the market, achieving "two Lianyang", and the price of gold reached a new high in more than a week. Lun copper rebounded, while lun lead was "triple overcast", hitting an one-month low.
Crude oil: it will continue to oscillate in the short term.
When it comes to varieties that have fluctuated greatly in the past two days, crude oil futures are bound to jump in front of us. Although international oil prices rebounded on Wednesday and broke away from nearly three-month lows, the market has always been worried about its future demand.
In fact, Zhong Meiyan, director of energy research at Everbright Futures, believes that the reason why crude oil prices have adjusted so violently since the beginning of September is essentially because the market is not entirely driven by fundamentals, but as a result of resonance with weak macroeconomic conditions.
According to Gu Jintao, head of the International Futures Research Department of the Bank of China, OPEC+ countries have recently reduced their production cuts, increasing oil production by about 1 million barrels per day in August, the second month in a row that OPEC oil production has increased. In addition, the number of active oil and gas rigs in the US increased by two to 256 in the week ended September 4, according to Baker Hughes. The number of active drilling rigs is an early indicator of future production. This is the second week that the number of active drilling rigs has increased in the past three weeks, and US crude oil production is likely to recover faster than expected in the future. The recovery of production in the major oil producing countries has made the supply of crude oil more abundant. In addition, the current global novel coronavirus epidemic situation is still not optimistic, the number of infections continues to grow, people are subject to certain restrictions, the recovery of crude oil demand is still relatively difficult. Especially recently, as the weather in the northern hemisphere is getting colder, the market is worried that the novel coronavirus epidemic will break out again, affecting the sentiment of the bulls in the market before.
Li Wanying, a senior analyst at the East China Sea Futures Research Institute, added that Saudi Arabia's upward adjustment of crude oil prices in various regions this month has aroused market concern that "oil-producing countries are waging a price war for market share." in addition, market confidence has been relatively fragile for some time, and the warehouse receipt pressure on Shanghai crude oil futures is greater, and a large number of hedging positions need to be resolved by falling prices. The adjustment range of Shanghai crude oil futures is deeper than that of outer crude oil.
In Zhong Meiyan's view, although the crude oil price adjustment broke the two-month oscillation and frustrated the early speculative bulls, whether it will fall further in the future still needs the cooperation of news and macro aspects. "at present, there is no further downward driving force on the news side, and the attitude of oil-reducing countries such as Saudi Arabia towards increasing production is still relatively cautious."
As for the United States, Gu Jintao said that although the oil wells have recovered somewhat, production will not grow too fast due to insufficient investment in the early stage, so the overall growth of crude oil supply is restrained.
On the demand side, although the novel coronavirus epidemic continues, the situation in the United States and Europe is improving, demand is slowly increasing, and there is good news in vaccine development from time to time. As a result, total global demand for crude oil is still picking up. At a time when supply growth is limited and demand continues to recover, there is little room for crude oil prices to fall.
In view of this, Gu Jintao believes that the probability of a sharp decline in the crude oil market in the future is relatively low, and it is difficult to repeat the market in March and April.
Li Wanying agrees with this. At present, the forward contract of Brent crude oil is still in an upward trend, indicating that the market is still cautiously optimistic about it. Against this background, the center of gravity of Brent crude oil prices in the fourth quarter is likely to remain at $45,00050 per barrel. Li Wanying said that considering that the price of Shanghai crude oil is still upside down with that of Oman crude oil, the pattern of loose domestic supply is difficult to change in the short term, and it is suggested that the relevant participants should adjust their operation ideas in a timely manner.
However, taking into account the recent resumption of normal production of US shale oil and traditional oil fields in the Middle East, as well as the instability of the global macroeconomic environment, Li Wanying said that funds are easy to amplify panic, and oil prices will continue to adjust in the short term. the overall impact on the domestic energy plate is empty.
As for energy chemicals, Zhong Meiyan said that although crude oil is the weather vane of the whole energy, the trend of oil prices is somewhat different from that of other varieties. "recently, crude oil is an oscillatory repair market. As for other energetic varieties, there is still the possibility of periodic price overestimation of PP, LLDPE and EG, and the fundamentals of methanol have been improved recently. What is worth paying attention to is asphalt, the strength of demand in the fourth quarter and the promotion of infrastructure projects are expected to boost the overall demand rebound. " She said.
A shares: adjust as expected
On September 9, under the influence of the US stock market "Black Tuesday", the A-share market made a sharp correction. As of the close of the day, the Prev closed down 1.86% at 3254.63 points, and at one point it fell more than 2% in intraday trading to 341.055 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Composite Index fell 3.25% to 12861.75 points, with a turnover of 695.257 billion yuan. The gem index fell 4.71% to close at 2523.4 points.
For Wednesday's sharp adjustment of the A-share market, South China Futures Index Futures analyst Wang Mengying said it was a high probability event. The recent valuation of the CSI 300 index is at an all-time high, and the recent macro level is relatively calm. In general, valuations can be higher when valuations are high if the macro side is good for stimulus, but the economy is recovering and a large amount of liquidity has been released in response to the impact of the epidemic, followed by a high probability of marginal tightening of liquidity. Under such circumstances, it is normal for the stock market to adjust. "
The recent performance of copper or crude oil, the dollar index and the stock market all means that the risk appetite of the global market is changing to some extent.
"what can be confirmed now is that the logic of this shift in global risk appetite is centered on the rebound in 10-year Treasury yields, the nominal interest rate in the US." Erroxi, a macro-strategy researcher at Haitong Futures, told Futures Daily that due to the rebound in nominal interest rates in the United States, the price of precious metals fell first, then US stocks plummeted, and then the price of crude oil on the outer disk fell sharply on Tuesday. In this case, the market risk appetite is suppressed, and then periodically northward capital inflow trend. On Wednesday, there was a net outflow of 3.758 billion yuan from the northward direction of the stock market, including a net outflow of 2.118 billion yuan from Shenzhen stocks. On the previous trading day, there was a net inflow of northward capital of 6.35 billion yuan.
Under such circumstances, Zhao Xiaoxia, chief researcher of Green Dahua Futures and Financial Futures, believes that if there is no obvious favorable policy at the macro level, the adjustment is expected to continue, "but generally speaking, compared with US stocks, A shares themselves are attractive to a certain extent."
Wang Mengying suggests that investors can try to use stock index options to manage risk in the near future. For investors who already have spot positions, protective put options and neckline options are good choices. In addition, investors can also try to build spread options in interval oscillations to earn spreads.
As for the medium and long term, the market is generally optimistic about the A-share market. Erroxi suggests that investors focus on policy inflection points or market inflection points and build long positions at bargain prices, especially when there is a discount in far-month contracts, they can choose far-month contracts to establish long positions. The repair speed of the CSI 500 index is faster than that of the CSI 300 index and the SSE 50 index.
Non-ferrous Metals: bullish on Copper and Zinc in the coming months
Panic in financial markets ran high on Wednesday, dragged down by the external environment. Britain said it was preparing for Brexit without an agreement, with the pound tumbling, the dollar higher and non-ferrous metals hit hard. "however, in view of the short-term impact of the overall macro on the non-ferrous market, as the global economy continues to recover, investors' worries about the economy and the epidemic will gradually disappear, and the adjustment of non-ferrous metals will also be short-term." Said Wang Zeyong, a metals analyst at South China Futures.
In view of the continued improvement in recent economic data released by the Federal Reserve, market expectations of Fed easing tightening are relatively strong, and the dollar index has rebounded from its low. Wang Yingying, a non-ferrous metals analyst at the Galaxy Futures Commodities Department, believes that its impact on base metals is likely to last until mid-September. However, at present, non-ferrous metals are in a state of low inventory, and with the sustained recovery of terminal consumption after mid-September, coupled with the reserve stock before the "National Day", basic metals may speed up destocking, and prices are expected to rise again.
As for the coming months, Wang Zeyong said that copper and zinc in non-ferrous metals will be stronger.
The epidemic in South America is still worsening, the import of scrap copper is relatively limited due to the impact of the new policy, and there has always been interference in the supply of copper. On the demand side, the increase in auto production and sales data in August reflected strong growth in infrastructure and engineering, and copper consumption began to pick up. Overseas, especially in Europe, is in the process of economic recovery, which continues to stimulate copper consumption, with Lun copper inventories falling below 90,000 tons. On the whole, in the context of low inventories and gradual recovery of demand, copper prices are easy to rise and difficult to fall.
The current contradiction between supply and demand in the zinc market has improved, and there is uncertainty in the supply side of the mine in the next four quarters. If there is a disturbance, then the supply side will play a certain role in promoting the price of zinc. In addition, under the peak season of traditional consumption, domestic infrastructure consumption and the recovery of overseas consumption generally boost demand.
Wang Yingying agrees with this. In her view, at a time when overseas ore supply is less relaxed than expected, the winter storage of domestic enterprises in high latitudes is also ready to start. Under the condition that the domestic concentrate supply maintains a tight balance, the production benefit of the smelting end may be difficult to realize substantially. The demand side is currently in the "Golden Nine" peak season, infrastructure and real estate consumption is still accelerating the release. At the same time, the slow recovery of export orders is also conducive to the ring repair of die-casting alloys. In the case that the follow-up stock market is still available, there will be more zinc on the bargain.
Wang Yingying also believes that from a fundamental point of view, nickel varieties will also have a good performance. Under the condition that the domestic nickel demand remains high and the inventory of medium and high nickel ore remains low, the cost and inventory factors will force the domestic NPI to reduce production, the domestic NPI supply will deviate from that of Indonesia, and the domestic primary nickel supply will remain in short supply.
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