SMM: a few days ago, the Social Science Literature Publishing House and the China Automotive Technology Research Center jointly issued the New Energy vehicle Blue Book: China New Energy vehicle Industry Development report (2020). The blue book pointed out that since the beginning of this year, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin and other places have increased the number of fuel vehicle increment indicators in order to boost the automobile consumer market and effectively hedge the impact of the epidemic. According to preliminary statistics, it is expected that about 225000 fuel vehicle targets will be added in 2020.
At present, the car purchase restrictions are implemented in Hainan Province, as well as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin and Hangzhou. It is worth mentioning that Guiyang, which has implemented car purchase restrictions for eight years, lifted the restrictions in 2019. In the first half of this year, the epidemic had a great impact on the automobile industry. The Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology all issued relevant regulations to encourage car consumption, while local governments responded one after another and boosted the local car market in terms of car purchase subsidies and additional issuance indicators.
According to the statistics released by the documents, Hangzhou will add 20, 000 minibuses at one time in 2020, Guangzhou and Shenzhen will add 50, 000 (fuel and energy efficiency 1:1) and 40, 000 respectively, and Beijing will add 20, 000 (new energy). Shanghai has not clearly issued a document on new car purchase targets, but it has increased the number of indicators month by month since March, and is expected to increase by more than 10,000 indicators for the whole year. Hainan Province, on the other hand, announced the addition of 60,000 lottery targets. Rough statistics, the current clear release of fuel vehicle indicators a total of 145000, the "Blue Book" estimates that the next cities are expected to release about 80, 000 fuel vehicle indicators.
As the purchase target of the increased investment in cities is mainly fuel vehicles, the Blue Book believes that this will have a restraining effect on the production and sales of new energy vehicles this year. Data show that in 2019, China's sales of new energy vehicles were 1.206 million, accounting for 53% of the total global sales, and the scale of production and sales ranked first in the world for five consecutive years. However, with the downward trend of the car market this year superimposed on factors such as fuel vehicles seizing the market, the production and sales of new energy vehicles this year may be difficult to reach last year's level.
The purpose of car purchase restriction is to control the number of motor vehicles and alleviate urban congestion. However, the introduction of the purchase restriction policy failed to meet people's expectations. according to the Ministry of Public Security, there are more than one million cars in 66 cities and more than 2 million in 30 cities, of which, 11 cities, including Beijing, Chengdu, Chongqing, Suzhou, Shanghai, Zhengzhou, Shenzhen, Xi'an, Wuhan, Dongguan and Tianjin, have more than 3 million vehicles, and many cities have exceeded the "red line" of motor vehicles set by the local municipal government.
Although the effect of car purchase restrictions is limited, industry insiders believe that in the long run, mega-cities are expected to introduce similar policies to control the number of cars in the future; and some experts believe that according to the state's encouragement to new energy vehicles, cities should still give priority to encouraging new energy vehicles, and the purchase target should focus on electric vehicles. What do you think of that?
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