Home / Metal News / Precious Metals / Want to step in again? Trump said he was willing to mediate the border dispute between China and India. Is it crazy to rise "corn" for eight months in a row? How to go this week with the collapse of Precious Metal Silver in US stocks
Want to step in again? Trump said he was willing to mediate the border dispute between China and India. Is it crazy to rise "corn" for eight months in a row? How to go this week with the collapse of Precious Metal Silver in US stocks
Sep 7,2020 08:15CST
translation
Source:Futures daily
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM: just over the past week, US President Donald Trump has made a lot of "human bewilderment".

According to reports, US President Donald Trump said on the 4th local time that the situation between China and India is "very bad" and that the United States is ready to help China and India resolve the border dispute.

"We stand ready to provide help on the China-India issue. If there is anything we can do, we are happy to step in and help. " When asked about the matter at a news conference at the White House, Trump said Washington was discussing with the two countries how to help defuse the situation, the report said.

In addition, Chinese students have also been subjected to harassment by law enforcement officers at US airports. The media recently reported the experience of a Chinese student.

Zhang Keisi (a pseudonym) is a doctoral student from China who visited the Department of Psychology at Brown University in the United States for a year. When Logan International Airport in Boston called for Mr. Zhang to go to the boarding counter, he thought it was a regular check-in, but his heart sank when he saw two US law enforcement officers with guns waiting for him. He was taken to a room in the boarding gallery bridge to answer questions from a law enforcement officer while another was checking his electronic equipment.

"they questioned me on the assumption that 'you are here to steal technology,'" Zhang said. "

According to reports, Zhang Keisi also described the interrogation as "pure harassment." "if I steal any data or intellectual property, I can (completely) send it through cloud storage. Taking away my laptop and phone for inspection is just a form of harassment. "

A number of Chinese students and researchers reported that when they were preparing to leave the United States recently, they were questioned by law enforcement officials at various airports. Some electronic devices, such as computers, mobile phones and game consoles, have been temporarily detained for further investigation and have not been returned a few weeks later.

As early as July this year, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a reminder that recently, there has been a sharp increase in cases of arbitrary cross-examination, nuisance, confiscation of personal belongings, and detention by US law enforcement agencies against Chinese students studying in the United States. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Chinese Embassy and Consulate in the United States remind Chinese students studying in the United States to raise their safety awareness, pay attention to prevention, and deal with them properly.

Is "corn" crazy? It rose for eight months in a row, hitting a six-year high.

Corn futures have risen for eight consecutive months this year, rising from 1900 points in January to 2366 points on July 31, a six-year high, up 21.56 per cent this year. According to the different planting time, southern corn is divided into spring corn and summer corn, and now it is the harvest season for spring corn.

Last week, Dalian corn rebounded, but did not change the seasonally adjusted pattern. On the news, there are reports of lodging of corn in Northeast China; fundamentally, the delivery of policy grain is accelerated, and at the same time, new grain is about to be put on the market, so the supply has entered a loose stage. Last Friday, corn 2101 contract closed at 2296 yuan / ton, a weekly decline of 29 yuan / ton.

Ji Ming, a futures analyst at the League of Nations, told Futures Daily that despite the great uncertainty in US-China relations, China's commitment to import US grain is still going on. On the news, northeast corn lodged because of the typhoon, and the market was worried about a decline in yield and quality. But this is local, the volume of traders will gradually increase in the later period, coupled with the peak of corn listing in northeast China in October, the supply should be adequate. As for warehouse receipts, as of September 3, the registered warehouse receipt of Dalian corn was 33.5 tons, a slight decrease of 2000 tons compared with the previous week.

"on the spot side, there has been a fluctuating decline in the quotations of the north and south ports. As of September 3, the plain price of corn with more than 15% of second-class moisture in Jinzhou Port in the north was 2240 yuan per ton (- 30 yuan per week), while that in Shekou Port in the south was 2300 yuan per ton (- 50 yuan on a week-on-week ratio). According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and villages, the national pig stock increased by 4.8% in July from the previous month, an increase of 13.1% over the same period last year. This is the first year-on-year increase in pig stock since April 2018. It can be predicted that with the rapid recovery of pig production, feed demand will increase significantly. According to the latest USDA data in August, it is estimated that China's corn production in 2020 will be 260 million tons (- 770000 tons) in 2021, the demand will increase by 3 million tons to 277 million tons, the gap between production and demand will widen to 17 million tons, and the final inventory is expected to decrease by 10.02 million tons to 194.05 million tons. Next year, as supply and demand continue to be tight, the price center of gravity in China's corn market is expected to rise to another level. " Ji Ming said.

For the future trend of corn, Ji Ming believes that the typhoon caused corn lodging in parts of Heilongjiang and Jilin, causing concerns about yield and quality. In the short term, the supply tension has gradually eased and spot prices have fallen. If the northeast new corn harvest is not a big problem, then seasonal supply pressure highlights, adjustment is inevitable. In the long run, the gap between supply and demand has an expanding trend, so after the peak of listing, Dalian corn is expected to enter an upward trend.

Us stocks with precious metals, can silver rebound this week?

U. S. stocks tumbled one after another in the last two trading days of last week. Precious metals also fell sharply. Gold futures closed down for three consecutive days on Friday, with gold futures down 2.1% and silver down 3.3% last week. On the inner market, the Shanghai Bank 2012 contract also closed down more than 3 per cent on Friday.

Gu Jiannan, an analyst at Haitong Futures, said that US stocks and precious metals fell at the same time in the second half of last week, due to both common factors and the two types of assets themselves. At a time when liquidity is rampant in the US, the market is full of expectations for the prospect of economic recovery, and asset prices of all kinds have continued to rise since the end of March, which is in danger of deviating from fundamentals. The addition of a large number of speculative retail investors in US stocks has fuelled the bubble, and precious metals have also risen with rising inflation expectations, both of which have the need to return to fundamental adjustment. The US unemployment rate has returned below 10 per cent for the first time since March, and the economic recovery continues, but with the US election approaching, fiscal stimulus may be weakened. According to the Fed's recent statement, it is unlikely that the Fed will make a big change in policy in the short term until the election results are confirmed.

"as far as the future trend of precious metals is concerned, there is limited room for further short-term policy easing, and there is a possibility that inflation expectations, which are too aggressive in the early stage, may be adjusted. We believe that precious metal prices may come under some pressure in the short term. However, since nominal interest rates are still kept within the bottom range by the Federal Reserve, there is limited room for downside." Gu Jiannan said.

Wang Yanqing, futures analyst at Citic Construction Capital, said that the decline in US stocks on Thursday and Friday had strong similarities with the weakness of silver, both due to upward interest rates in the money market leading to valuation pressure. In terms of money markets, the yield on 10-year Treasuries rose rapidly from 0.62 per cent to 0.72 per cent in the two days of last Thursday and Friday. While the Fed continues to say it will keep interest rates low for a long time, the market has raised questions about the extent of monetary easing, and it is a visible fact that the Fed's balance sheet has peaked since June.

For the future trend of precious metals, Wang Yanqing believes that the impact of non-agricultural data on the market last week has been fully priced, with little impact on the follow-up market. However, the continued growth in non-farm payrolls data is more due to temporary employment, and about 1/4 of the new employment comes from government employment, and the persistence of high non-farm payrolls growth is questionable. At a time when markets are worried about the future, if the jobs data show signs of deteriorating, the Fed's balance sheet may have to expand again. In addition, although the two parties in the United States are deeply divided on the new stimulus bill, it is possible to reach a deal. Therefore, under the background that the economy has not yet returned to normal, the trend of precious metals is still worth looking forward to.

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