SMM9 March 4 News: today, all non-ferrous metals are floating green, and the three major US stocks fell overnight. Technology stocks, which rose sharply in the previous period, plummeted, pushing up the panic in the financial market, and the superimposed dollar index rebounded continuously. The metal market was under heavy pressure, but most of the metal market recovered slightly during the day. At the close of trading, Shanghai Nickel fell 2.19%, Shanghai lead fell 1.97%, Shanghai Zinc fell 1.8%, Shanghai Tin fell 0.9%, Shanghai Aluminum fell 0.8%, and Shanghai Copper fell 0.5%.
In terms of lead, in terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, the production of primary lead is relatively stable. At present, recycled lead is the focus of the market, and there is a shortage of raw materials in some refineries. Coupled with the decline in lead prices, profits are close to zero, and the willingness of recycled lead refineries to ship goods is low. On the whole, the supply of recycled lead may be tightened. On the consumer side, the consumption of lead-acid batteries is stable, and storage enterprises purchase on demand. SMM believes that the supply of recycled lead is tightening and the social inventory of lead ingots is falling continuously. Generally speaking, the fundamentals of lead are good, and the short-term decline in lead prices is expected to be limited.
[SMM Analysis] Macro-level drag on lead prices and inventory decline & the tightening of recycled lead supply is a supporting factor
In terms of black, thread fell by 1.08%, hot coil by 0.94%, stainless steel by 2.92%, coke by 0.2%, coking coal by 0.08%, iron ore by 1.45%, and hot coil by 1.45%. According to SMM, the operating rate of blast furnace in steel mills this week is basically the same as last week. In addition, the operating rate and production status of the hot rolling line of the steel mills also remained basically stable, prompting the hot rolling output to maintain a high and stable state this week. However, affected by the high price, the actual terminal digestion is not as good as expected, prompting the total inventory to accumulate this week. In the follow-up, although the expectation of demand is still preferred, the overall release due to high prices may be slow. At this time, the pressure of high-price inventory of traders is increasing, and the mentality is significantly weaker than in the previous period. It is expected that short-term spot prices are likely to run weakly without the continued support of good news.
[SMM Steel Market Morning News] China's heavy truck sales will set a new record this year.
Crude oil fell 1.32% in the previous period, and U.S. oil also fell on Friday. Crude oil futures on both indicators are likely to have their biggest weekly declines since June, as weak demand and ample supply offset support from a weaker dollar. Some analysts pointed out that at present, both major contracts appear to be in jeopardy and must be rescued by tonight's strong US non-farm payrolls data. Abundant spot supply and stock market jitters will continue to erode confidence.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell 0.49%, Shanghai silver fell 3.15%, and international spot gold prices rose on Friday as US bond yields fell before the US non-farm payrolls data were released, and global stock markets fell to support safe-haven gold demand. However, the strength of the dollar is expected to lead to a decline in the weekly line of gold prices.
As of today's day close:
Today's capital flow
There was a big escape on Friday. More than 3.6 billion of sha, funds flowed out of the Mandarin Commodity Index. Panic, the blood loss of industrial products is particularly obvious, black chain, non-ferrous, precious metal outflow ranked in the top three of the plate. Soybean one, two meal rose against the trend, the feed sector received 450 million capital blessing, ranking first in commodities. Specific variety observation, Shanghai nickel, glass, palm oil outflow of about 600 million each, ranking in the top three commodity outflows.
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