SMM9 March 3: the overall decline of non-ferrous metals in the afternoon today, the recent strength of the US dollar has affected the trend of non-ferrous metals. Due to the excellent performance of US manufacturing data in August, the US dollar rebounded strongly and strengthened again today, putting collective pressure on the metal market. At the close of trading, Shanghai Nickel fell 1.77%, Shanghai lead fell 1.23%, Shanghai Aluminum fell 1%, Shanghai Copper fell 0.82%, Shanghai Zinc fell 0.64%, and Shanghai Tin rose 0.87%.
In terms of nickel, at present, the short-term fundamentals of nickel are good, and in the long run, it is also better than expected; in the third quarter, 300 series stainless steel high discharge capacity high nickel pig iron changed from leftover to deficiency, or tight balance in the fourth quarter, and the surplus was less than originally expected. therefore, some nickel market fundamentals of nickel pig iron are good. In terms of pure nickel, although consumption is not good, the decrease in domestic spot nickel imports adjusts the market to a certain extent, so that the domestic social inventory is basically balanced and the market performance is relatively stable. SMM believes that the price is too strong and volatile in the short term. It is expected that this week Shanghai nickel will be 120000-123500 yuan / ton and Lunni will be 15200-15800 US dollars / ton. However, due to the recent rapid rise, the possibility of a short-term and large correction is also higher.
"[today's Nickel Market] Nickel hit high and fell back to the spot transaction slightly improved.
In terms of black, thread rose 0.5%, hot coil fell 0.13%, stainless steel 2.32%, coke 2.18%, coking coal 1.54%, iron ore 0.88%. In terms of hot coil, the total inventory of hot rolled coil this week is 3.9487 million tons, compared with + 2.06%, year-on-year + 16.66%. According to SMM research, the operating rate of blast furnace in steel mills this week is 89.6%, which is basically the same as last week. In addition, the operating rate and production status of the hot rolling line of the steel mills also remained basically stable, prompting the hot rolling output to maintain a high and stable state this week. However, affected by the high price, the actual terminal digestion is not as good as expected, prompting the total inventory to accumulate this week.
[SMM Hot Volume inventory report] Hot Volume inventory stops falling and increases spot prices may be under pressure
Crude oil fell 2.69% in the previous period, the lowest since early August, as concerns about falling fuel demand in the United States and a weak economic recovery from the epidemic hit market confidence. However, Iraq denied the news that it sought to exempt OPEC+ production cuts in the first quarter of next year, providing some support for the oil market. Us gasoline demand fell to 8.78 million b / d from 9.16 million b / d a week ago, although US crude and refined oil inventories fell more than expected in the week ended August 28, according to the (EIA).
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell 2.21% and Shanghai silver fell 5.2%. Spot gold fell further on Thursday, continuing the sharp fall of the previous day, as the stronger dollar and better-than-expected economic data led to a rebound in risk appetite and hit gold's risk aversion charm. The dollar index rose for a third day in a row, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. Investors are waiting for weekly US jobless claims data to be released later today and non-farm payrolls data to be released on Friday, so they are studying the future direction of gold prices.
As of today's day close:
Today's capital flow
The bull market cooled down, some of the funds chose to be safe, and the Mandarin commodity index outflowed 514 million yuan. The precious metal dived crazily in the afternoon, with an outflow of nearly 900 million yuan behind it, ranking first in the plate. Among them, the outflow of Shanghai gold exceeded 700 million yuan, far exceeding that of other varieties. Although silver plummeted, there was an outflow of less than 200 million yuan. Chemical industry, non-ferrous plate also lost a lot of blood, ranking second or third in the plate. The black chain index, crude oil sector have absorbed more than 700 million funds, quite favored by funds. It is not surprising that coke surged against the trend and reached a new high, attracting more than 400 million yuan. Crude oil also fell into 400 million dollars.
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