SMM9 March 3: most of the LME metal market is red in morning trading. By around 09:30, Lunxi rose nearly 0.5%, Lunzn Zinc and Lunlun lead rose nearly 0.3%, Lun Aluminum rose nearly 0.2%, Lun Copper slightly red, Lun Nickel was flat. Domestically, Shanghai Tin rose nearly 1.3%, Shanghai Nickel rose nearly 0.6%, Shanghai lead fell nearly 0.3%, Shanghai Copper fell nearly 0.5%, Shanghai Aluminum and Shanghai Zinc fell nearly 0.6%. In terms of copper, the main contract of Shanghai Copper has gradually cooled down since it hit a high of 53520 yuan / ton in July, and the high level has continued to fluctuate for many days. In mid-August, the center of gravity moved down and then rose slowly, but never broke the high set in July. SMM combined with the latest market in the upper and lower reaches of the industrial chain, consumption in the lower reaches has not yet come out of the off-season market, the domestic and foreign trade markets are both weak, domestic social inventory is still rising, and there is no significant disturbance information on the supply side, but the optimistic tone of continuous recovery in overseas markets, LME continues to go to the warehouse, bringing strong support, and copper price shocks are strong in September.
[SMM monthly special] consumption is expected to increase in peak season if supply and demand are tight. Copper price volatility is strong in September.
In terms of aluminum, from the perspective of domestic fundamentals, short-term consumption has not yet got rid of the off-season effect, and the recent trend has been adjusted in stages, taking into account that the current stock is not as expected, the stock is still below 800000 tons, and with the recovery of consumption from September to October, it may be possible to go to the warehouse for the second time, the lower position of 14200 yuan / ton still has a certain supporting force, and it is still possible to rise in the medium term. Pay attention to the actual feedback of consumption, the change of inventory growth and the operation of funds in September. On the macro level, we should pay attention to the progress of the epidemic, the economic stimulus measures introduced by various countries and the possible changes in global trading sentiment caused by the trade relations between the major powers of China, the United States and Europe.
[SMM monthly special] short-term off-season effect or lag in aluminum prices can still be expected.
In terms of the black system, the thread rose nearly 1%, the hot coil remained flat, stainless steel rose nearly 0.7%, coke rose nearly 1.4%, coking coal rose nearly 1.9%, and iron ore rose nearly 1.9%. Looking forward to September, the overall market of the black system is more optimistic, and steel prices are expected to continue to rise, but the thread range may be relatively small. Because although the strength of the raw material end price continues to "tamp" the bottom support of the spot price, and there is also a slight decline in the supply side of building materials under poor profitability, when the strong demand expectation has not been realized for a long time, the inventory is still high. this will suppress thread prices to be difficult to sustain or rise sharply; while the fundamentals of hot rolling are relatively healthy relative to other varieties, superimposed steel mills are willing to push up prices and have a strong upward momentum. In addition, the impact of production restrictions is still on the news surface, the substantive documents have not been published, and the later impact remains to be seen.
[SMM monthly special] September black series or differentiated operation of steel products to extend the upward trend of iron ore has been suspended.
Previous crude oil fell nearly 2.4%. NYMEX crude oil futures fell nearly 3% on Wednesday, reversing early gains as inventory reports showed a drop in gasoline demand in the United States last week. Weekly data released by the US Energy Information Administration ((EIA)) showed that gasoline demand fell last week from the previous week, outweighing the impact of positive crude oil inventory data, and oil prices fell after the inventory report was released.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 1.4%, while Shanghai silver fell nearly 2.6%. Comex futures fell 1.7% on Wednesday as the dollar strengthened and a strong rebound in US manufacturing raised hopes that the US economy, hit by the coronavirus, would recover quickly. Analysts pointed out that the main factor is the strength of the dollar, gold prices move in exactly the opposite direction to the dollar, and gold prices are also under pressure from good factory order data in the United States in July. Investors are watching the number of U.S. initial jobless claims released on Thursday and non-farm payrolls data released on Friday.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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