SMM: boosted by the prospect of a new US bailout package and comments from the Federal Reserve to maintain economic stimulus measures, US stocks got off to a good start in September, with the Nasdaq up 1.39 per cent, setting a new closing high above 11900; the S & P 500 rose 0.75 per cent to a new high; the Dow rose 0.76 per cent.
On September 1, local time, Fed governor Brainard continued to speak on the Fed's future monetary policy framework, saying that the Fed may seek an inflation rate of just over 2% and keep interest rates low for a long time to come. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said Trump supports additional fiscal responses and that the Fed's September meeting and subsequent policy discussions will be framed by a new strategy.
According to the survey, OPEC oil production increased by 950000 b / d to 24.27 million b / d in August compared with the previous month due to OPEC+ 's relaxation of production reduction measures. API crude stocks fell by 6.36 million barrels in the week to Aug. 28.
Fed governor Brainard said the COVID-19 epidemic caused considerable uncertainty in the US economy and that the Fed might seek an inflation rate of just over 2 per cent.
With the advent of September, the peak demand season for "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" begins. On the first trading day of September, many sectors of the domestic futures market rose slightly. As of the afternoon close of September 1, Shanghai copper, Shanghai lead and Shanghai nickel in the non-ferrous metal plate rose nearly 2%, and Shanghai copper rose more than 2%. Iron ore and rebar in the black plate rose slightly, with coking coal and coke rising by about 2%. The energy sector was divided, with Shanghai crude oil down 0.47%, while chemical varieties such as PTA, PVC, plastics, polypropylene and styrene all rose slightly, with methanol up nearly 3% and soda ash and ethylene glycol up about 2%. In addition, silver rose by more than 3%, and palm oil and rapeseed oil rose by more than 1%.
As of the early morning close, the S & P 500 index of US stocks was up 0.75%; the European Stoxx50 index was up 0.12%; the dollar index was up 0.16%; WTI crude was up 0.42%; Brent crude was up 0.48%; copper was down 0.97%; and gold was up 0.14%. American beans are up 0.10%; American soybean meal is down 0.48%; American soybean oil is up 0.06%; American sugar is down 0.63%; American cotton is up 0.11%; the BDI CRB index is up 0.08%; and the BDI index is down 1.14%. Offshore renminbi CNH rose 0.16 per cent, while Deutsche Bank X-Trackers Castrol Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Chinese A-share ETF rose 1.70 per cent. Inner night market closed, chemical industry was strong, EB, plastic, Zheng alcohol and so on rose more than 1%, thread, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, asphalt, iron ore, rubber and so on rose slightly, while pulp and glass fell slightly.
Super Typhoon "Meisak" hits the East China Sea and Northeast China to meet strong winds and torrential rain
After "Bavi", this year's No. 9 Typhoon "Meisak" has become another northward typhoon, and it is also the first super typhoon this year. Affected by it, the three northeastern provinces will once again experience strong wind and rain brought by typhoons.
According to the Central Meteorological Observatory, the center of this year's No. 9 Typhoon "Meisak" (Super Typhoon) is located in the southeastern part of the East China Sea at 5 p.m. on the 1st, about 600 kilometers south of Jeju Island, South Korea. It is expected that "Maisak" will move northward at a speed of 15-20 kilometers per hour, with little change in intensity, or make landfall on the southern coast of South Korea around midnight on the 2nd. After landing, the intensity weakened obviously and entered northeast China from the border between China and North Korea around noon on the 3rd.
The influence of "Maisak" on China is mainly in two aspects. On the one hand, from 20:00 to 20:00 on September 1, most of the East China Sea, the southern Yellow Sea, and the coastal areas of Zhejiang, Hangzhou Bay, and the Yangtze Estuary will have strong winds of force 7-9, with winds of force 10-13 in the central and eastern part of the East China Sea. The Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue a blue typhoon warning on September 1.
On the other hand, the latest monitoring shows that Maisak is so large that it will encounter cold air from the north in the later stage, which means that the influence of wind and rain will be more obvious. It is expected that from the 2nd to 4th, there will be heavy to torrential rain in Heilongjiang, Jilin, eastern Liaoning, northeastern Inner Mongolia and other places. The accumulated rainfall in southwestern Heilongjiang, western and south-central Jilin, northeastern Liaoning and northeastern Inner Mongolia will reach 100,180 mm. The heaviest rainfall period is from the 2nd night to the 3rd.
The National Ocean Forecast issued an orange alert for waves and a yellow alert for storm surges on the 1st. It is expected that from noon on September 1 to noon on September 2, 8 to 12 meters of wild waves will appear in the eastern part of the East China Sea, 4 to 7 meters in the west of the East China Sea and near fishing islands, 2.5 to 4 meters in the coastal waters of Zhejiang, and 2 to 3.4 meters in the coastal waters of Shanghai.
In terms of storm surges, under the influence of typhoons, Shanghai Luchao Port, Zhejiang Zhenhai and Zhoushan tide stations will reach the best part of the local yellow alert tide level around the early morning of the 2nd.
Trump Biden fiercely debated: who is fuelling radical behavior and who makes the United States more insecure?
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden delivered a speech in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on August 31, local time, strongly criticizing Trump as a "toxic presence" for the country and attacking him as "unable to stop violence because he has been inciting violence for years."
Trump and his team did not want to be outdone, saying tit-for-tat that Biden was "covering for" violent demonstrators and that "far-left politicians" fuelled the violence. On the same day, the two camps criticized each other on different occasions about the unrest caused by the protests in the United States. The US political News Network believes that this back-and-forth move marks a new stage in the general election, and that "whose leadership will pose a serious threat to the country" has become a key issue in the debate between the two sides. On Tuesday, local time, Trump plans to visit Kenosha, Wisconsin, where 29-year-old African-American man Blake was shot seven times. Can he play the role of a "comforter"? Some Americans expect so; others say Kenosha's trip is a continuation of Trump's campaign-linking violence to Democratic cities, so his visit could be further divisive.
Non-ferrous metals: follow-up should pay attention to macro factors and expected difference correction changes
Yesterday, the non-ferrous metal plate is now rising, founder mid-term futures non-ferrous metals group leader Yang Lina believes that macro and micro resonance supports the trend of non-ferrous metals.
On the macro front, the dollar index has weakened significantly recently, breaking through the recent range of 92 cents, boosting commodities denominated in dollars. The Fed's aggressive average inflation targeting policy will keep interest rates very low for a long time. Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell announced that the Fed would now seek an average inflation target of 2%, meaning it would allow inflation to exceed 2% during the economic recovery. keeping interest rates at current levels means that borrowing costs for businesses and consumers will remain low for a longer period of time. In terms of liquidity released, the US is looser relative to countries such as Europe, thus supporting a relatively weaker dollar. Moreover, the misplaced performance of the COVID-19 epidemic between the United States and Europe has led to a significant deviation in the prospects for economic recovery between the two, which has also become a factor affecting the falling pace of the dollar index.
Judging from the situation in our country, she said that the recent economic data showed a good momentum of recovery, our country took the lead in recovering after the epidemic, and maintained the resilience of repair, and the central bank declared that it maintained a loose and tight monetary policy. These factors have supported the appreciation of the local currency, and have accelerated recently. As the largest demand country for non-ferrous metals, the appreciation tendency of China's currency is conducive to imported goods, thus forming a support for non-ferrous metals.
"in the near future, copper has also shown a breakthrough in finishing for a long time and has entered the peak demand season of" Golden Nine and Silver Ten ". Domestic household appliance production has rebounded, and infrastructure demand production is also expected to pick up. In addition, from the recovery of the rhythm of non-ferrous metals, we can see that the direction guidance of copper as a leader is closely related to the changes in macro expectations, and the upward breakthrough and expansion of copper also gives a boost to other varieties of non-ferrous metals. During the epidemic, non-ferrous metals are affected to varying degrees by the supply-side supply of raw materials. After the supply disturbance is gradually digested, the demand repair caused by the expected weak economic recovery, together with abundant liquidity support, form a rising support. "said Yang Lina. Specific to other non-ferrous varieties, the supplementary demand for zinc is relatively more reflected, while nickel due to tight ore supply, better terminal demand, oversupply and demand is expected to delay support, the stage performance is more eye-catching, repeatedly setting new highs for the year. The continuity of the future rise of non-ferrous metals and the subsequent market risk factors focus on the impact and expectations of exchange rates, changes in demand and terminal acceptance. Therefore, follow-up attention needs to be paid to the pace of global economic recovery in the midline, as well as changes in the correction of expectations.
Shanghai zinc rose a lot yesterday, and looking forward to the future, Wang Yingying, a researcher at Galaxy Futures, said that although the raw material end is gradually resuming production in overseas mines, the expectation of loose supply of foreign mines has gradually taken shape, but the degree of recovery of overseas ore supply has not been effectively controlled by the external epidemic, so it is possible to revise it again. At the same time, in the process of domestic mine output climbing, it is difficult to cause the marginal change of processing fee. With the expectation of the overall tight balance of ore supply, it is possible that the degree of supply repair may not be as good as expected when it is difficult to guarantee the realization of profits at the refining end. The resilience of the demand side in the current off-season makes the market look forward to going to the stock market in the peak season. However, due to the recent influence of the environmental protection policy in North China, there may be some obstacles to the incremental release of consumption in the peak season. In the case that it is difficult to confirm the follow-up to the stock market, the market bullish confidence is slightly insufficient. At the same time, the macro mood is difficult to be stable, which also interferes with the operation of zinc price.
For yesterday's shanghai aluminum oscillation decline, she believes that the raw material end in Hydro Brazil alumina plant production reduction news, due to the absolute import volume contraction expectation, so that the domestic alumina price rebounded with foreign material prices. However, the actual supply still maintains the impact of excess, the rising trend of domestic alumina prices has slowed down significantly, and the follow-up space may be limited. Under the condition that the smelting cost of aluminum enterprises can still be controlled, the production profits of aluminum enterprises have not been actually damaged. With the direct stimulation of high production efficiency, the pressure on the follow-up supply side is still large. While the demand side is still affected by the seasonal off-season, the weak month-on-month growth of terminal consumption still has a dragging effect on overall consumption. Before the off-season stock market is completely over, the upside of aluminum prices is likely to continue to be limited.
The supply pressure is small, the demand is stable, and the futures of coking coal and coke will form a high oscillation trend.
Since late August, coking coal futures have fluctuated higher. Wei Fengqin, a mid-term futures analyst in Shanghai, believes that due to the long clearance time of imported coking coal and the decline in the inventory of imported coking coal at the port, there is little pressure on the phased supply of coking coal, but the capacity utilization rate of downstream coke enterprises is about 81%. Coke enterprises have higher profits per ton of coke. As of the week of August 28, coking enterprises in Henan, Shaanxi and other places have newly started production capacity and resumed production, which has a phased increase in demand for coking coal. In the later stage, if there is no pressure from environmental protection and other aspects, the coking plant will increase the utilization rate of capacity, the demand for coking coal is still expected to increase, and the futures price of coking coal will be supported.
Coke has also rebounded in the past three days, with an increase of more than 5%. According to Wang Zeyong, a metal analyst at South China Futures, judging from the recent fundamentals, the hot metal output of steel mills can remain high under low profits, and there is support on the demand side. Under the high profits of coke enterprises, the supply is high, but the inventory is low, and the gap between coke supply and demand persists. The previous low point of the disk is close to 1850 yuan / ton, and the corresponding profit of coke enterprises is 150 yuan / ton. in the case of continuous tight supply and demand, the profit of coke enterprises is also more reasonable. At the same time, the recent steel turnover has improved, the terminal peak season demand gradually started, the short-term overall trend is relatively strong. Over the weekend, rumors of the 4.3-meter coke oven phase-out in Taiyuan were verified after trading. Taiyuan demanded that the city's 4.3-meter coke oven with a height of 4.3 meters and clean heat recovery coke ovens be shut down by October 31, 2020. Judging from the production capacity of coke enterprises in Taiyuan, about 9 million tons of production capacity needs to be eliminated. But at the same time, there will be nearly 8.5 million tons of production capacity by the end of the year, so Taiyuan's phase-out of 4.3m coke ovens is more likely to be capacity replacement. Judging from the situation in Taiyuan, the overall capacity planning of Qingxu Coking Park is close to 15 million tons, resulting in a net increase in production capacity.
In the medium and long term, he believes that the top of hot metal output is more obvious, and the coke will be seasonally weaker in the later stage. On the other hand, the coke production capacity is relatively stable, and most of the phase-out is concentrated at the end of the year and the probability is higher than expected. The margin of coke supply and demand is weak. at the same time, the profit of coke enterprises is in a relatively high position at 350 yuan / ton, and the corresponding disk price is about 2050 / ton. As the coke gradually moves from tight supply and demand to balance, the pressure at the high position in front of the disk surface is larger.
For the reasons for the rise of coke, Wei Fengqin also believes that, on the one hand, because the inventory of the coking plant is low and the port inventory has dropped, but the operating rate of blast furnace in the downstream steel plant remains high and the procurement is relatively stable, so under the condition of low inventory pressure, coking plants and coke trading enterprises raised the quotation of coke; On the other hand, the coking industry has eliminated backward production capacity this year, but the new capacity has not been coked out in time, resulting in a phased shortage of coke supply. At the same time, the coking industry has made great efforts to cut production capacity this year. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, coke production fell by 2% from January to July compared with the same period last year, but pig iron production increased by 3.2% from January to July this year, which provided a big support to coke prices.
Looking ahead, she said that September and October are the peak season for real estate and infrastructure construction, and industries such as automobiles and home appliances have also entered the peak season of production and sales. Steel mills will maintain a high operating rate, and demand for coke will continue to improve. Therefore, the demand for steel in the terminal industry will be transmitted upward to materials such as coke and coking coal. The demand of coking coal supply is concerned about the progress of customs clearance of Mongolian coal, while the coke supply focuses on the coking progress of new production capacity. On the whole, short-term coking coal and coke supply pressure is small, demand is stable, coking coal and coke futures will form a high oscillation trend.
Oil prices remain optimistic in September
Yesterday, the performance of Nenghua plate is also very strong, but the performance of different varieties is differentiated. Li Wanying, a senior energy analyst at Donghai Futures Research Institute, said that in order to stabilize oil prices, the general direction of OPEC production reduction will not change. In the United States, as the labor season and summer driving season are drawing to a close, the supply and demand of crude oil in the United States is unlikely to improve significantly in the coming month. However, it is worth noting that with the advent of the hurricane season, the weather may cause short-term disturbances to crude oil production. Energy companies in the Gulf region of the United States continue their efforts to restore offshore drilling rigs and Gulf Coast refineries that were closed before two storms last week, and five refineries in Texas that were closed before Hurricane Laura made landfall all plan to restart soon, providing some support for oil prices. In terms of the price difference between inside and outside, on the whole, the performance of the inner disk is relatively weak relative to the outer disk recently, and the price difference reflects the fact that SC is undervalued. From the perspective of exchange rate, the midpoint of RMB against the US dollar has fallen relatively recently, and the US dollar has depreciated under the influence of macro factors, while China's crude oil pricing needs to consider the exchange rate factor, so it relatively affects the internal quotation. In addition, due to the previous period of low oil prices, China bought a large number of foreign crude oil, resulting in an increase in the number of arrivals to Hong Kong recently, greater inventory pressure, abundant domestic supply and price pressure. From a medium-and long-term point of view, the price difference between inside and outside is expected to return to a reasonable price, and there is a power to repair the inner market. "looking ahead to September, we need to pay attention to whether positive news such as vaccines can be fulfilled as scheduled and the specific recovery of global crude oil production, and we remain cautiously optimistic about oil prices." She said.
The varieties of PTA and MEG, in the polyester industry chain have recently followed the relative upward shift of the center of gravity of crude oil prices. Li Wanying believes that with the arrival of the "Golden Nine Silver Ten", although the epidemic has had a negative impact on demand this year, market sentiment has improved with the phased control of the epidemic. PTA production enterprises are affected by higher profits to delay the overhaul of some devices. Citing CCF data, in September, in addition to the equipment overhauled in the three rooms Lane and Huabin, Yisheng 2.2 million tons are scheduled to be overhauled in September, and Liwan is likely to restart in September. PTA production is expected to be around 420-4.25 million tons, investors are advised to continue to pay attention to plant changes. Relative to PTA,EG, the current plant start-up is suppressed by low profits to maintain a low position, so the impact of high port inventory tends to be passivated, and the disk tends to trade supply contraction logic. "for EG, we advise investors to keep thinking short and long." She said.
In terms of fuel oil, recent demand for high sulphur has been boosted by summer Saudi oil, although it will take longer for the shipping market to fully recover. In terms of asphalt, due to the previous period of precipitation affecting the start of road construction, the infrastructure still forms a strong support for the price of asphalt after the weather has improved. In terms of LPG, it is optimistic that the peak demand season in the fourth quarter will be fulfilled in the far month contract. In addition, she said that at present, the market is still waiting for the boots of the trading rules to fall to the ground, advising investors to be cautious in the near future to prevent the volatility caused by the rule change.
Click to understand and sign up for the 2020 China Automotive New Materials Application Summit Forum.
Scan the QR code above to view the business cards of the participating companies and sign up online
Scan the code and apply to join the SMM Automotive Industry Exchange Group.