What are the potential candidates for the selection of members of the European Bank Executive Committee? Medium-and long-term may affect the trend of the euro

SMM: last Sunday, market analyst Piotr Skolimowski wrote that the last vacancy in the ECB's executive board before 2026 needs to be filled. This is the last opportunity to reshape the core of ECB decision-making for more than five years, and smaller countries in the eurozone will soon compete for the job.

The euro zone will compete for a post on the executive board of the European Central Bank

The executive board of the European Central Bank has six members. In December, with the departure of one of the members, Moss (Yves Mersc), the former governor of the Central Bank of Luxembourg, a post will become vacant, which will be the only ECB executive board post vacant until 2026. If the vacancy can be filled, the latest round of appointments to ECB members will come to an end. This round of appointments includes the promotion of Ms Lagarde to the first female president of the European Central Bank.

Members of the ECB's executive board come from the four largest economies in the euro zone. With Mr Moss's departure, it will provide an opportunity for other member states to compete for one of the executive board posts. In other words, small countries from Ghana to Estonia have a chance to get their first ECB executive board seat, while countries such as the Netherlands to Finland are expected to win a second one.

Although key decisions are formally made by the 25 members of the ECB council, the ECB president and the ECB's executive board will set the policy agenda.

According to the decree of the European Central Bank, members of the executive board need to have personal competence and professional experience in currency or banking. Specific advantages of competing for the job may include regulatory expertise to succeed Moss as vice chairman of banking supervision, need to be female and knowledge of green finance to help Lagarde prioritize gender diversity and environmental issues.

Vion (Nicolas Veron), an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said it was clear that the ECB executive board member had to be selected from small countries. This may be very important for Lagarde because the development of the epidemic shows that monetary policy and monitoring require close work and communication.

Potential candidates from various countries

Eurozone finance ministers will elect the ECB as an executive board member in the coming months, and the battle has begun behind the scenes. Here are some possible candidates: The Netherlands has two candidates

The Netherlands provided (Wim Duisenberg), the ECB's first president, but in the 15 years since he left office, there has not been a single member of the ECB's executive board. This is long enough to allow the Netherlands to reapply for important ECB posts.

Elderson (Frank Elderson), 50, who works as a bank supervisor at the Dutch central bank, is a potential candidate. He is also chairman of the Network of Central Banks and the Network of Green Financial regulators, made up of 66 mainly European institutions aimed at tackling climate change.

Another possible candidate is Kellerman (Joanne Kellermann), 59. She was the first female board member of the Dutch central bank and regulated banks during the global financial crisis. She then serves on the single solution Committee and is currently chairman of the Dutch pension fund.

However, any Dutch candidate is likely to be opposed by some euro-zone countries that are dissatisfied with the Netherlands's main role in the recovery fund. If the Netherlands does win a seat on the ECB's executive board, it will hit central bank governor Knott (Klaas Knot) 's chances of replacing Lagarde as the next ECB president. Lagarde's term as president of the European Central Bank will end in 2027.

2 No member from Eastern European countries has joined the Executive Committee of the European Bank, and this selection is of symbolic significance. There are no Eastern European citizens serving on the ECB's executive board, so regardless of the final outcome of this selection, the appointment process is symbolic in the region.

A potential contender could be (Bostjan Jazbec), a 50-year-old former governor of the central bank of Slovenia. As a former president of a country suffering from a banking crisis, he has expertise in monetary policy and regulation. He has been working at SRB in Brussels since 2018, overseeing bank liquidation plans.

The other candidate is Bikazimir (Peter Kazimir), a 52-year-old former Slovak finance minister. He has been the country's central bank governor for more than a year, so he is relatively new to monetary policy, although he can gain useful experience on the eurozone debt crisis from his previous work.

Like the rest of Eastern Europe, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have never had seats on the ECB's executive board. The best hope of helping them break the deadlock may be 62-year-old Hansen (Ardo Hansson). He was governor of the Estonian central bank, whose term ends in 2019.

The son of Estonian immigrants, he was born in Chicago and holds a doctorate from Harvard. If Hansen competes for the job, he could have the support of three Baltic countries, and although money-laundering scandals engulfed Estonia in his last year as president, it could crack down on his potential candidacy.

3 Finland strives for a second post as a member of the Executive Committee of the European Bank

Like the Netherlands, Finland served on the executive board at the beginning of the euro, but not since 2003. Raine (Olli Rehn), 58, governor of the Finnish central bank, lost to Lagarde in the election for president of Europe, and then failed to run for the post of chairman of the IMF. However, he now has a third chance to run for a member of the executive board of the European Central Bank.

However, as a former EU commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, Mr Rehn may be satisfied with the impact of his current job: he is the first ECB official to request a strategic review, which Ms Lagarde set up this year.

Huitong warned that the final winner of the vacant ECB executive board post and the policy stance of the final elected person will affect whether the ECB will be more dovish or hawkish in the future. as a result, it will have an impact on the trend of the euro in the medium to long term, and investors need to pay attention to this. Generally speaking, policy officials from Eastern Europe are more likely to follow Germany's tougher monetary policy measures, which may advocate scaling back or even stopping QE measures as soon as the economy recovers, which will boost the euro's extra strength.

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