SMM, July 31:
Base metals rose first and then fell later this week, due to the Fed's low interest rates during the week and weaker-than-expected data from Europe and the United States, which led to a continuous decline in the dollar index. Uncertainty in the global political and trade situation led to a big rise in gold and silver, driving up base metals. However, the tension in Sino-US political relations and factors at the end of the month made it difficult to sustain high positions. Multi-leveling made metals give up some of the gains, and SMMI rose 1.3% in the week. Among them, copper was the most obvious, with Lun copper receiving US $6500 / ton and Shanghai copper blocking the 52000 yuan mark. Spot prices rose slowly, highlighting caution at the end of the month. SMMI.Cu fell 0.1% a week, dragging down the performance of the SMMI overall index. Lead in the expectation of the peak consumption season, Shanghai lead took the lead in the upward trend, the center of gravity increased significantly, rising 4.84% a week, spot followed higher, SMMI.Pb rose 4.52% a week. Aluminum and zinc have the same performance and remain strong. Shanghai aluminum is led by bulls on the basis of low inventory and low warehouse orders, rising 1.94% per cent per week. Back structure continues to rise steadily, making SMMI.Al rise 3.09 per cent a week. Lun Zinc broke through 2300 US dollars / ton. The performance of the Shanghai zinc station at the Wanjiu pass was up 6% at the end of Friday, and the spot market softened due to rising water at the end of the month, but SMMI.Zn was still up 3.07%. Tin Nickel's performance was similar. Shanghai Xichong rose above 150000 yuan and then fell back, approaching the November 2018 high, with a weekly rise of 3.37%, but the spot performance was afraid of high, inferior to futures, with SMMI.Sn rising 2.46% a week. The Shanghai nickel target is directly above 110000 yuan, rising 2.66% a week. The spot has both fear of heights and month-end factors. Spot performance is weaker than futures, and SMMI.Ni is up 2.35% a week. Next week into August, financial strength will return to the market, but next week's data will be more important and concentrated. Non-agricultural data and various services and manufacturing PMI in Europe and the United States will be released one after another, or have an impact on European and American stock markets and the dollar index. Base metals will continue to recover the downtrend, consolidate support and shock the upward trend in the multi-pattern, and guard against the weakening effect of the off-season effect of domestic consumption.
Copper: this week Lunzhong overall narrow shock pattern, the center of gravity around 6460 US dollars / ton first line fluctuation. From a macro point of view, on the policy side, the Federal Reserve maintained its dovish position on Wednesday, reiterating its low interest rate policy and saying it would use "all tools" to support the US economy, but at the same time sent a signal of serious damage to the economy. The United States also had a stalemate on the new trillion fiscal stimulus package, dampening market optimism about the prospects for long-term economic repair. A series of US and European economic data released this week were lower than expected. GDP in the United States fell 32.9% in the second quarter compared with the same period last year, the largest drop on record. Germany's second-quarter GDP data also fell more than expected, and the outlook for economic recovery is still highly uncertain. However, the fundamentals still have support for copper prices, according to the recently released second-quarter reports of large mining companies, a number of minerals have a certain reduction, mine-side supply tension has not yet eased. This week, copper prices kept the box fluctuating in a range of $6390 / m / t in which it fluctuated at $6510 per tonne. Zhou Chu Lun copper opened at 6410.5 US dollars / ton. Driven by the sharp rise in precious metals, it opened high on Tuesday and hit the week's highest point of 6520.5 US dollars / ton, but the upward momentum was limited. The deep correction of gold and silver prices caused copper prices to simultaneously give up the rise to the week's lowest point of 6389.5 US dollars / ton. Supported by the 20-day moving average, the low rebounded back to near the 6500 barrier. Near the weekend, copper prices fluctuated in the short-term impact of economic data. Lun copper rose about 1 per cent a week to $6473 a tonne after Asian trading on Friday. At present, the entanglement of the 5 / 10-day moving average below Lunzhong is supported. Keep an eye on the macroeconomic recovery and the long-term risk of Sino-US relations to test whether Lunbro can rally again.
This week Shanghai copper trend in the shock finishing center of gravity slightly higher than last week. On the domestic side, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above the scale continued to accelerate in June. In July, the official manufacturing PMI recorded 50 ups and downs for the fifth month in a row, indicating that the domestic economic economy continues to recover. While the prospects for economic recovery in the United States and Europe are still highly uncertain, the market still has expectations and confidence for China's economy in the second half of the year, and copper prices have also been boosted. However, the tense relations between China and the United States have become prominent, and the contradictions in China-EU and China-Australia relations have intensified, and the market may continue to be plagued by the deterioration of global trade relations. At the beginning of the week, the main force of Shanghai copper opened at 51420 yuan / ton, failed to hit the 52000 mark on the short term, and then fell back to 51600 yuan / ton first-line shock adjustment. Driven by gold prices during the week, copper prices once shot straight up to the week's highest point of 52250 yuan / ton, high empty into Duoping made it quickly give up the increase fell to around 51500 yuan / ton. The center of gravity of copper prices rose to 51800 yuan / ton in the middle of the week, and then wound around the daily average line for shock finishing. Under the negative influence of GDP data in the second quarter of the United States, copper prices dived in the short term on Friday, reaching a weekly low of 51190 yuan / ton, but domestic PMI data in July effectively boosted investor confidence, copper prices repaired their intraday decline, and finally closed at 51820 yuan / ton, up 600 yuan / ton during the week, or 1.17%. The position increased by 5579 hands to 119000 hands, mainly for long positions. At present, the main force of Shanghai Copper Shengyang, 5 / 10 moving average adhesion through the box, showing a shrinking shock throughout the week, showing caution at the end of the month. We will continue to pay attention to the macro news and domestic consumption, and wait for whether the copper price can reap the momentum of funds to rise again under the condition of abundant funds after the change of months.
The spot market as a whole showed a slow downward trend this week. During the week, the copper box fluctuated in Shanghai, which coincided with the weak demand at the end of the month and limited buying interest. During the week, the price of good copper is high and strong because of the scarcity of goods, and the holder has no intention of reducing the price for cash. during the week, the price of good copper is stable in the range of 80-100 yuan / ton. Flat copper in order to promote transactions in the price rise slowly weakened, so flat copper price difference with good copper obviously opened, the downstream performance stopped and wait-and-see, making the market feel in advance the off-season effect that is about to enter August. The spot quotation for the current month contract gradually dropped from 30 ~ 100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 10 ~ 90 yuan / ton on Friday, with obvious characteristics at the end of the month.
Aluminum: Lun Aluminum opened at $1696.5 a tonne on Monday. From Monday to Wednesday, short positions were mainly reduced, while the US index released to boost the outer disk metal upward, while Lun Aluminum also refreshed its highest level since March, touching 1731.5 US dollars / ton. On Thursday, the US second-quarter GDP data were not as expected, financial markets generally fell, and turned negative during the day; on Friday, due to the continued weakness of the US index, Lunal was still strongly supported. As of 18:04 domestic time, Lunal closed at 1730.5 US dollars / ton, up 33 US dollars / ton, or 1.94%. Trading volume decreased 16786 to 43066 lots, and positions decreased 14308 to 787000 lots, mainly short positions. In the short term, the logic of Lunal is still macro, and the impact of fundamental changes in supply and demand on Lunal is relatively limited, so we need to continue to pay attention to the trend of the US index and fluctuations in overseas financial markets.
The main force of Shanghai Aluminum completed the monthly shift to 2009 contract on Tuesday, finally ending the same contract for more than two weeks in the same month. This week, Shanghai Aluminium's main company achieved four Lianyang from Monday to Thursday, and the bulls continued to strongly increase their positions, helping the disk to rise to the position of 14805 yuan / tonne. More than 4500 investors left the market on Friday, closing at 14685 yuan / ton, giving up some of the week's gains. The weekly K line closed at a medium positive line, up 280yuan / ton, or 1.94%. The trading volume increased by 283000 to 684000, and the position increased by 25229 to 129000, mainly by bulls. During the week, SHFE warehouse receipt inventory decreased first and then increased, spot rising water with aluminum futures pull up superimposed supply liquidity and narrowed, this week aluminum ingot inventory is also small tired 10, 000 tons to 712000 tons. Therefore, although low inventory and low warehouse orders help Shanghai Aluminum to have a strong short-term trend, it is still necessary to guard against the loosening of spot circulation and the weakening of fundamental demand on the medium-term Shanghai aluminum back structure and price upward high pressure, it is expected that next week Shanghai aluminum main company will still be mainly strong shock.
This week, the spot transaction price in Shanghai is between 14560 and 15000 yuan / ton, and the spot price in Wuxi is between 14570 and 15000 yuan / ton. The weekly average price is about 300 yuan / ton higher than last week. Wuxi is slightly higher than Shanghai area by 10 yuan / ton. The actual transaction discount is between flat water and 110 yuan / ton. This week, the spot circulation in the market is loose, the variety of brands is relatively rich, and ingots imported from Russia, the United Arab Emirates and Australia continue to inflow, and the quotation is 50-80 yuan / ton lower than the domestic general aluminum. Under the background of sufficient spot, the consumption of downstream manufacturers gradually weakens. This week, spot rising water continues to decline compared with the previous period, but at the same time, the performance of the consignor is straight, and more wait-and-see in the process of aluminum futures fall, and the willingness to ship has been restrained. A large family buys normally every day, and the middleman can pick up the goods this week, but most of them are long orders for delivery, and the downstream itself is not enthusiastic about receiving goods. There was much hesitation when aluminum prices rose in the early stage, as aluminum prices rose to around 15000 yuan / ton and did not show a downward trend. Close to Friday, we began to increase stock. On the whole, the deal in East China is mediocre this week.
Lead: this week Lun lead runs along the moving average, and the overall center of gravity rises slowly. At the beginning of the week, Shanghai lead accelerated upward, breaking through the concussion platform, reaching a high of 1883 US dollars / ton. near the end of the month, high bulls began to choose to leave, and Shanghai lead did not have enough upward power, and then basically fluctuated in a narrow range of 1865 US dollars as of Friday. Lun lead was reported at 1877.5 yuan / ton, a weekly increase of 2.85. The Federal Reserve announced the resolution of the meeting this week to continue the dove speech, and the market mood is still relatively optimistic. in the next week, the market macro sentiment is still on the high side, coupled with the good technical aspect of Lun lead, and Lun lead has ended the continuous inventory increase since last week. the support for the bottom of Lun lead is expected to be mainly shock upward in the short term, and the center of gravity of Lun lead continues to rise slowly at 1840-1900 US dollars / ton.
This week, Shanghai lead followed Lun lead upward and closed at 5 Lianyang. At the beginning of the week, due to the relative optimism of lead fundamentals and the positive macro mood, lead prices fluctuated upward, reaching a high of 15785 yuan / ton, a new high this year. As of Friday, Lun lead was reported at 15705 yuan / ton, with the main weekly increase of 4.87% in Shanghai. The domestic spot is relatively tight, the supply of primary lead smelters is relatively tight, although the price difference of fine waste has expanded, but it is only maintained at 100,000,150 yuan / ton, the supply of waste batteries is still relatively tight, consumers are expected to improve, and the fundamentals expect lead to have the momentum to go upward. coupled with the recent decline in domestic lead ingots inventory, further stimulate the mood of the market to do long, increase positions within the week, short-term configuration is still dominated by bullish configuration. The target level in August will be locked at the Wanliu pass, and the 2009 contract of Shanghai lead will stabilize at 15450-16000 yuan / ton.
The mainstream spot operation this week is 15150-15800 yuan / ton. As far as SMM knows, lead continues to rise this week, and the amount of bulk orders in the smelter is less. As of Friday, the average price of lead in the market (delivery brand) to SMM1# lead is flat to 100 yuan / ton. Trade market, market trading is general, as of Friday, domestic lead ordinary brand lead to 2008 contract flat to rise 50 yuan / ton quotation; recycled lead market, lead price shock higher, although the waste battery price is high, but the enterprise production profit has been repaired, as of Friday, the mainstream quotation of recycled lead lead to the SMM1# lead average price discount 100 million 150 yuan / ton factory; On the consumer side, from the market feedback, the price is still relatively high, downstream enterprises will not do speculative reserve, more procurement is based on rigid demand.
Zinc: this week Lun Zinc concussion upward, the center of gravity further up. Zhou Chu Lun Zinc three Lianyang trend is strong, Zhou Yilun Zinc in 2200 US dollars / ton above strong shock finishing, Tuesday prices rose sharply to the previous high of 2270 US dollars / ton, some bulls profit closing positions, price shocks down, and once again close to 2200 US dollars / ton, but the price below 5, 10 moving average support strength appears, the price stopped falling sharply rebounded, fully recovered the decline. Market expectations for a sustained economic recovery are strong, the continued weakness of the US dollar also gives zinc prices some momentum to rise, and zinc prices continued to rise above the US $2300 / ton line on Wednesday. Prices were still strong at the beginning of Thursday, but due to the record decline in real GDP annualized initial value in the United States in the second quarter, which was 32.9% month-on-month, crude oil and copper plunged sharply, and zinc prices also fell sharply, but low-cost funds were willing to be long, and prices rebounded to recover all the declines. Prices fluctuated mainly in a narrow range on Friday, close to the close of the Asian session, funds entered again to pull up, Lun Zinc rose as high as $2334 / ton, the highest price since February this year.
Shanghai zinc concussion upward this week, prices hit new highs one after another. The market is still in the logic of consumption expectations for the peak season and the return of overseas consumption. On Monday, the main contract fluctuated strongly around 18000 yuan / ton. Funds entered the market on Tuesday, and zinc prices quickly shot up to 18530 yuan / ton, but the pressure at the integer gate was greater. Some bullish funds made profits, zinc prices fluctuated downwards, and prices fell back below 18000 yuan / ton again. Entering the second half of the week, zinc prices entered an accelerated rising phase, and the price center of gravity further rose to near the first line of 18700 yuan / ton. On Thursday, the night market was dragged down by the sharp fall in crude oil and surrounding metals, and the price quickly fell below 18500 yuan / ton. However, there was a strong willingness for low-price funds to enter the market and be long. While prices rebounded sharply to recover the decline, it was once close to 19000 yuan / ton. At the beginning of trading on Friday, zinc prices fluctuated mainly in a narrow range at the beginning of the afternoon trading session, funds re-entered the market to increase zinc prices, a total of more than 10, 000 hands, zinc prices finally exceeded 19000 yuan / ton, the main contract rose as high as 19130 yuan / ton, as of the close, the main contract closed at 19080 yuan / ton, a week-on-week rise of 6.53%.
As zinc prices fluctuated higher this week, trading in the Shanghai spot market weakened, and the spot rising water fell back. As of Friday, ordinary brand zinc basically quoted a rise of 600.70 yuan / ton for the 2008 contract, and Shuangyan reported a rise of 700.80 yuan / ton. at present, the market quotes less for imported zinc. At the beginning of the week, due to the flood situation, logistics and transportation were affected, and the arrival of some zinc ingots was affected, resulting in a relatively tight supply of goods in circulation in the Shanghai area. at the beginning of the week, the purchasing willingness of low rigid demand downstream was still good, and the spot rising water fluctuated upwards. at one point, ordinary zinc brands raised 90,100 yuan / ton to 2008 contracts, but the good times did not last long. In the next few days, as prices continued to rise, the lower reaches were mainly wait-and-see, and traders were willing to ship goods at high prices. At the end of the month, the spot rose to a high level and fell back. Enter next week, focus on internal and external price revision, this week overseas warehouses continue to deliver, if the import price ratio is opened, or some imported zinc ingots inflow, the domestic spot water or the trend is relatively stable, and recently, with the price rising, some smelter finished product inventory sources began to ship one after another, focusing on the latest arrival of refineries.
This week, Ningbo Zinc to Shanghai Zinc 2008 contract rising water about 90,100yuan / ton stabilized, this week Ningbo than Shanghai Shengshui about 10-40 yuan / ton. This week, zinc price is strong and breakthrough, market trading is slightly light, downstream only do just-demand procurement, the market West Mine, Tiefeng quotation is stable at about 90-100 yuan / ton, Kirin price is stable at 120-140 yuan / ton, Huize quotation is stable at 150 yuan / ton, other brands are rarely heard of, near the weekend downstream procurement slightly increased, slightly heating up, the overall transaction this week is flat.
This week, the quotation of zinc in Guangdong market focused on the flat price to 45 yuan / ton for the contract of 2009 zinc in Shanghai, and the discount of 70 yuan / ton in Guangdong market was the same as that in Shanghai stock market last week. This week, spot quotations in the Guangdong market have comprehensively turned to a discount for futures September contracts. As zinc prices fluctuate upward and hit new highs one after another, the rapid rise in prices suppresses the procurement demand downstream, which is dominated by more procurement volume or rigid demand downstream, and the overall demand is general. This week, the arrival volume of the Guangdong market still maintained a high level, while in the absence of downstream demand support, the shippers increased the pressure on shipments, and some of the holders with lower preservation ratio were active in high shipments, exerting pressure on spot transaction prices. Traders expand receipt of goods at discounts, and most of the overall market transactions are contributed by traders. On the whole, the price rise suppresses the overall demand downstream, and the output shrinks obviously this week.
This week, the mainstream ordinary brand of Tianjin Zinc rose from 180 to 250 yuan / ton in the contract of Shanghai Zinc 2008, while Zijin quoted water 230yuan / ton to 320yuan / ton in the 2008 contract, and the water in Tianjin rose from 110yuan / ton to about 160yuan / ton compared with Shanghai stock market. Zinc prices fluctuated at the beginning of the week, due to the shortage of spot liquidity in Tianjin, traders raised the quotation of ordinary brands to 190-220 yuan / ton, while the lower reaches maintained rigid demand; in the middle of the week, zinc prices rose strongly, but due to fewer shipments from smelters, traders continued to slightly raise the price of rising water, and the wait-and-see mood in the lower reaches became stronger. Near the weekend, zinc prices were high and fluctuating, and the spot market maintained high rising water prices, with ordinary brands quoted at 180-240 yuan per ton and Zijin quoted at 300-320 yuan per ton, with the transaction flat compared with that in the middle of the week, and downstream enterprises maintained rigid demand procurement. On the whole, the transaction in Tianjin market is general this week, but after the terminal orders gradually pick up, the purchase volume of rigid demand in the lower reaches has also increased.
Tin: the Lunxi electronic market opened at 17670 US dollars / ton this week and at 17670 U.S. dollars / ton at the beginning of the week. It rose sharply to the year's highest point of 18250 U.S. dollars / ton at the beginning of the week. After reaching the peak, the pullback fluctuated all the way down, 4 consecutive overcast, and the daily K line broke the 5-day moving average. As of Friday, the latest price of Lunxi was 17855 U.S. dollars / ton, that is, the lowest point of the week, up 235 U.S. dollars / ton, or 1.33 percent. 1610 hands were traded and 16913 positions were held. An increase of 973 hands, the week is positive, the physical part is above all moving averages, the center of gravity continues to move upward, the upper shadow line is longer, and the pressure is high, which is mainly caused by the risk of high positions and the pressure of capital withdrawal at the end of the month. The daily MACD fast line follows above the slow line, but the opening tends to close. The K line and the rag belt on the track at the beginning of the week began to return smoothly to the middle track. The MACD opening is still upward, the solid part goes further toward the Bollinger belt, and the shadow line touches the Bollinger belt. It is necessary to pay attention to the risk of high callback, and continue to pay attention to the recovery of foreign epidemics and the form of international trade. The upper pressure is expected to be around US $18250 / ton on the Bollinger belt.
The main 2010 contract of Shanghai tin opened at 141900 yuan / ton this week. At the beginning of the week, it continued the rising trend of last Friday's night trading, fluctuating all the way up. After a short period of horizontal finishing, it rose sharply to 154400 yuan / ton, which is close to the high level since November 2018. It was only 3160 yuan / ton short of the all-time high, and fell sharply after peaking. Affected by the sharp rise in precious metals in the middle of the week, it was measured again near the 150000 yuan barrier. After it was blocked, it fluctuated all the way down. At the end of the weekend, the funds returned, the bulls' strength weakened, and the center of gravity moved down again. On Friday, it closed at 146620 yuan / ton, up 4780 yuan / ton, or 3.37%. The turnover was 263000 tons, the position was 25542 tons, an increase of 9920 tons, showing a long positive line. The physical part is located near the 5-week moving average, and the upper shadow line is longer than the physical part. There's a lot of pressure above. The Japanese K line broke the 5-day moving average at the weekend, but the upside pattern has not been damaged, so we need to pay attention to the test pressure level above the re-entry of funds after the change of month. The daily K line returns below the Bollinger belt on Thursday, and the MACD fast line crosses with the slow line to form a dead fork. The pressure above the weekly K line is on the Bollinger belt, and the MACD fast line is still above the slow line. The short-term target pressure level is still at the 150000 yuan mark. On the spot side, spot prices at the beginning of the week were higher than last weekend. As futures rose sharply on Tuesday morning, high cloud prices resonated with futures prices, following a sharp rise in futures prices. Spot prices are high, only rigid demand is left in the lower reaches, the market fluctuates greatly, traders are worried about risks and hold a wait-and-see attitude, spot prices can not keep up with the changes in futures for a short time, and the rising water price has decreased. Late week pullback, Yunxi and Yunzi prices continue to change with the futures price, and the discount does not change much from that at the beginning of the week. Yunxi Shengshui 500 yuan / ton nearby, Yunzi discount 500 yuan / ton to flat water; some small brand manufacturers are bullish, price adjustment will is not strong, so the small brand discount is narrower than at the beginning of the week around 2000 yuan / ton. Spot prices fell high, downstream buying interest has improved compared with the middle of the week, but the price is still high, and in the overall trading atmosphere of the market is still desolate. Due to the strength of the bulls in the futures market, it is expected that the spot price of Shanghai and tin will continue to follow the futures market to maintain strong volatility in the short term.
Nickel: this week Lunni opened at 13650 US dollars / ton. Zhou Nailun Nickel's center of gravity is mainly around 13800 US dollars / ton, which is in the situation of high shock washing. It crossed the Wansi mark twice during the week, but was heavily sold by short sellers at US $13995 / t and US $13990 / t, respectively, but Lunni entities always operated above the five-day moving average, temporarily closing at US $13800 / ton as of 19:09 on July 31. In the technical aspect is still more, sit down below the support strength, Lunni continues to break through 14000 US dollars / ton as the goal. However, next week, the PMI of various services and manufacturing industries in Europe and the United States will be released one after another. at the same time, the unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls in the United States in July have a significant impact on the European and American stock markets and the dollar index.
This week, the main 2010 contract trend of Shanghai Nickel showed a concussive upward trend, opening at 107510 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, during which it failed to hit 112000 yuan / ton twice, but the center of gravity of Shanghai Nickel continued to rise along the 5-day moving average, closing temporarily at 110370 yuan / ton at the end of Friday. The weekly increase was 2860 yuan / ton, or 2.66%. Although the macro aspect is still strained by Sino-US relations this week, the heightened geopolitical risks have led to a continued rebound in risk aversion in the market, and precious metals have also dived back for a time, Shanghai Nickel has remained multi-oriented in terms of technology. The MACD red column continues to enlarge, and the main bulls are always present, so the center of gravity of Shanghai Nickel is gradually effectively sitting at the 110000 integer mark. It is expected that next week, Shanghai nickel is still expected to hit the high of 112500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year.
In terms of nickel spot, the weekly average price of SMM1 nickel is 110500 yuan / ton, the weekly average price of SMM Jinchuan nickel is 110800 yuan / ton, and the weekly average price of Russian nickel is 110220 yuan / ton. Since Monday, traders have turned to Shanghai Nickel 2009 contract quotations, and there has been little fluctuation in the discount rate during the week. Russo Nickel's mainstream quotation for Shanghai Nickel 2009 contract remains stable at around 300yuan / ton, while the market only has a lower price for the non-deliverable Russian board. Jinchuan Nickel rising Water also remains at 300yuan / ton for Shanghai Nickel 2009 contract, and some first-hand agents can increase 200yuan / ton shipments. In terms of transactions, as nickel prices continued to fluctuate at high levels, downstream users' willingness to purchase was suppressed, so the turnover in the five trading days of the week was relatively light. In terms of nickel beans, there were certain transactions within the week, but due to the recent lack of import replenishment, the supply of goods in circulation decreased, and the nickel bean discount gradually narrowed to around 1000 yuan / ton. It is expected that while the downstream nickel futures are still expected to strengthen, it will be difficult for the spot market to pick up, and the holder will continue to maintain the quotation, waiting for the nickel price correction or rigid demand customers to enter the market.