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[SMM comment] Metals rise and fall each other. Black generally rises slightly. Precious metals fall back again. Shanghai Silver is down more than 2%.
Jul 31,2020 09:40CST
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Source:SMM
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SMM7 March 31: the whole LME metal market is red this morning. As of 09:35, Lun Nickel rose nearly 0.5%, Lun Copper rose nearly 0.4%, Lun Al and Lun Pb rose nearly 0.1%, Lunzn Zinc and Lunxi were flat. Domestically, Shanghai Aluminum rose nearly 0.6%, Shanghai Zinc rose nearly 0.2%, Shanghai Copper and Shanghai Nickel rose nearly 0.1%, Shanghai lead fell slightly, and Shanghai Tin fell nearly 1.3%. The domestic side, Shanghai Aluminum rose nearly 0.6%, Shanghai Zinc rose nearly 0.2%, Shanghai Copper and Shanghai Nickel rose nearly 0.1%, Shanghai lead fell slightly, and Shanghai Tin fell nearly 1.3%.

In terms of copper, according to SMM data, the copper concentrate index in June was $51.71 / ton, down $1.76 / ton from the previous month, the third consecutive month of decline. According to SMM, at present, some domestic copper smelters have been affected by the shortage of raw materials and declining profits to reduce production or carry out maintenance and adjustment, mainly private refineries, especially some private roughing plants have centralized maintenance in July and August this year. Although the overhaul of domestic refineries increased in July, part of the overhaul was passively adjusted by the pressure of the raw material port, so it was difficult to change the current tight supply of copper concentrate caused by the overseas epidemic. SMM learned that the current spot TC offer continues to be under pressure, and the spot TC is deadlocked at 40 US dollars / ton. As for crude copper, as the supply end has scrap copper to produce crude copper and imported to Hong Kong to support, this part of the short-term maintenance will not reduce crude copper processing fees, but in the long term, the tension of the mine side will be transmitted to crude copper through domestic rough refining, the trend of RC and TC will tend to be consistent, and the upward space for crude copper processing fees is limited.

[SMM Analysis] Private copper refineries will be overhauled mainly due to shortage of raw materials and declining profits

In terms of black, thread rose nearly 0.2%, hot coil rose nearly 0.8%, stainless steel rose nearly 0.3%, coke nearly 0.3%, coking coal rose nearly 0.4%, iron ore rose nearly 0.5%, thread, as of July 30, the national total inventory of building materials was 11.1429 million tons, month-on-month ratio + 1.9%, year-on-year + 26.9%. The steady accumulation rate has been continued this week. The steady increase in production meets demand that has not yet been fully released, and the continued accumulation of stocks still seems to be expected. This week, the total inventory of hot-rolled coil is 3.8831 million tons, with a month-on-month ratio of + 0.72% and a year-on-year ratio of + 12 The overall growth rate has slowed down from the previous month, and the year-on-year growth rate has also declined. The current inventory pressure is OK, and the short-term disturbance to fundamentals is relatively limited.

[SMM thread] the stock continues, and the "embarrassing" situation of steel price does not stop.

"[SMM hot volume] hot volume accumulation library" slow "spot price when to" put aside the clouds and see the light of day "?

The previous period of crude oil fell nearly 0.8%. On Thursday, the electronic trading price of WTI September crude oil futures closed down 94 U.S. dollars, or 2.28 percent, at 40.32 U.S. dollars per barrel. Oil prices fell sharply on Thursday as US President Donald Trump hinted that the United States should postpone the presidential election in November, disrupting markets because of poor US economic data. The US economy shrank in the second quarter at its worst since the Great Depression, showing the devastating impact of the coronavirus on the world's largest oil consumer.

In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 0.3% and Shanghai silver fell nearly 2.3%, as the positive results of a vaccine study suppressed safe-haven demand and stimulated investors to take profits on gold. The narrowing of the decline in the stock market has also put pressure on gold prices. Some analysts pointed out that the market still has further room to rise, and at the same time, there are many risks that may hinder the introduction of Covid-19 vaccines as soon as possible, which will accelerate the reopening of the world economy and return to normal, which is good for risky assets and therefore depresses safe-haven assets, such as gold.

As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:

Brief comments on SMM:

Copper: last night, Lun Copper closed at US $6455.5 / ton, down 0.32%. Trading volume was 12000 lots, and long positions were reduced by 1702 to 320000 lots. Shanghai Copper 2009 contract closed at 51730 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.08%, and the volume of 98000 short positions was reduced by 269 to 122000 lots. Copper prices last night to maintain volatility, did not break through the recent operating range, is expected to need to consolidate for a period of time to wait for macro signals. Copper prices fell all the way from above $6500 after poor economic data released yesterday and daytime European economic data added to concerns about uncertainty about the economic recovery. Earlier in the evening, copper prices rebounded and recovered some of their losses, but it was announced that GDP in the United States fell 32.9% in the second quarter compared with the same period last year, rekindling market concerns. The Dow fell more than 500 points after opening, and copper prices also fell $60 in the short term, followed by an easing of short-term tension and a rebound in risky assets in late trading. On the spot side, the transaction has weakened at the end of the month, and traders have taken the initiative to lower their quotations, and the rising water is expected to decline slightly today. It is expected to be 6440-6500 US dollars / ton for Lun Copper and 51500-51900 yuan / ton for Shanghai Copper today. It is expected that the spot water will rise by 10-80 yuan per ton today.

Aluminum: yesterday, the main 2009 contract of Shanghai Aluminum opened at 14665 yuan / ton in the morning, rushing to around 14700 yuan / ton at the opening, climbing to 14805 yuan / ton after adjustment, and then falling slightly; afternoon prices fluctuated strongly in the range of 14680-14770 yuan / ton, with support on the first line of 14700 yuan / ton, closing at 14720 yuan / ton in late trading, trading volume increased to 185000 hands, position increased to 133000 hands, and the daily line closed in Zhongyang. The total position of Shanghai Aluminum is 399000 lots, the trading volume is 339000 lots, and the Shanghai Aluminum Index hit a new high. Yesterday's night trading Shanghai Aluminum main 2009 contract opened at 14720 yuan / ton, the opening fluctuation was not big, and then dragged down by the general decline in the capital market, as low as 14525 yuan / ton, the V-shaped reversal rose again to 14700 yuan / ton, closing at 14695 yuan / ton at the end of the day. The volatility of night trading increased under the influence of US economic data and news, and the increase in inventory was not obvious. The continuous rise in futures covered part of the spot rally, focusing on the sustainability of the capital push. It is expected that today's Shanghai Aluminum 2009 contract operating range of 14500-14900 yuan / ton.

Lead: overnight, Shanghai lead opened at 15590 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the session, Shanghai lead fluctuated, then fell to a low of 15525 yuan / ton. After hitting the bottom, due to long positions increasing positions rebounded to the highest level of 15680 yuan / ton, and finally reported at 15600 yuan / ton, a decline of 0.29%. Give up the daytime increase. Overnight Shanghai lead follows the trend of Lun lead, but as domestic fundamentals are expected to be strong, inventories continue to be removed this week, and short-term lead prices fluctuate at high levels.

Zinc: overnight, the main 2009 contract of Shanghai Zinc opened at 18660 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the session, driven by the uplink of the outer disk, Shanghai Zinc concussion uplink, tried many times to break the failure and bear the pressure near the high level of 18810 yuan / ton. After exploring a low of 18490 yuan / ton, it found support and upward correction, recorded a V word reversal, stepped up to 18980 yuan / ton, recovered all the decline, but the bulls were afraid of heights, and the bears also entered the market to suppress, and the center of gravity of Shanghai zinc moved down to 18820 yuan / ton consolidation. The final closing price rose to 18815 yuan / ton, up 75 yuan / ton, or 0.4%. The trading volume increased to 202003 lots, and the position increased by 1902 lots to 113444 lots. Overnight Shanghai zinc recorded three Lianyang, upward test Brin Road on the rail suppression strength, below the 5-day moving average to provide support, MACD positive pillar expansion. Overnight, Shanghai zinc first suppressed and then rose, overseas macro-negative caused Shanghai zinc to bear pressure and downward, some domestic smelters were overhauled, the supply side was tight, the superimposed long-term consumption expectation remained, and the fundamental support was temporarily strong, boosting the strength of Shanghai zinc. The contract price of Shanghai Zinc 2009 is expected to operate in the range of 18500-19000 yuan / ton, and it is expected that the price of domestic Shuangyan zinc will rise by 80-90 yuan / ton in August.

Nickel: last night, the actual annualized quarterly rate of GDP in the United States in the second quarter was-32.9%. London Metals fell, dragging down the domestic market. The overnight Shanghai Nickel 10 main contract opened at 110500 yuan / ton. After opening low, the bulls increased positions in Shanghai Nickel concussion and explored a high of 111310 yuan / ton at night. Then, following the decline of Lunni, the bulls sharply reduced their positions, and Shanghai Nickel went all the way down to 109200 yuan / ton. Then the shock rose back to 110700 yuan / ton. The center of gravity of the position fluctuated slightly around 110400 yuan / ton until the close, and finally quoted at 110340 yuan / ton. The settlement price fell 1000 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day. It fell 0.90% to 576000 lots, and its position decreased by 12000 lots to 143000 lots. Last night, Shanghai Nickel closed at the Xiaoyin column of the long shadow line last night, the lower shadow line pierced the 5 / 10 moving average line, and the K column stood above the 5-day moving average line. Today, we are concerned about whether Shanghai Nickel can stabilize the 5-day average line 110000 level.

Tin: Shanghai tin trend: the Shanghai tin main 2010 contract opened at 146890 yuan / ton last night, with a maximum of 147210 yuan / ton and a minimum of 145220 yuan / ton, closing at 145380 yuan / ton, down 1900 yuan / ton, or 1.29%. 28182 lots were traded and 26151 positions were held, a decrease of 293 hands. Yesterday, the main tin 2010 contract of Shanghai Stock Exchange opened at 146890 yuan / ton yesterday, with a small rebound reaching the highest point of 147210 yuan / ton in the night market, and then the bulls jumped down to the lowest point of 145220 yuan / ton after a sharp departure. After hitting the bottom, they rebounded and swayed horizontally, and the center of gravity moved down somewhat. In the last session, it jumped slightly and closed at 145380 yuan / ton, showing a negative line. The physical part is located between the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average, and the upper shadow line is under pressure on the 5-day moving average. The lower support level is expected to be near the 10-day moving average of 144397 yuan / ton.

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