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Review on spot Trading Day of SMM Base Metals on July 28th
Jul 29,2020 18:29CST
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Source:SMM
Review on spot Trading Day of SMM Base Metals on July 28th
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Copper: Lun Copper opened at $6458 / ton today, maintaining a volatile trend before noon, with the center of gravity stabilizing at $6455 / ton and an intraday low of $6441 / ton. In the afternoon, Lun Copper showed a fluctuating upward trend driven by the rise in crude oil, reaching as high as 6505 US dollars / ton. When the bulls left the market at this high position, Lun Copper fell slightly. Lun Copper closed at US $6495 per tonne, up US $26 per tonne, or 0.4 per cent, as of 17PUR 00. API crude oil inventories in the United States, announced last night, fell by 6.829 million barrels in the week to July 24, easing market worries about the contradiction between supply and demand for crude oil. Crude oil prices rose sharply, driving copper prices up. Today, Lun copper closed, and the bottom is supported by the 5-day, 10-day moving average, KDJ down the opening convergence, the technical side is good for copper prices. In the evening, watch the changes in EIA crude oil inventories in the United States in the week ended July 24 to test whether Lun Copper can continue to rise.

Today, the main force of Shanghai copper opened at 51770 yuan / ton in the morning, and the opening was pressurized by a lot of flat copper prices. Shanghai copper concussion fell to explore an intraday low of 51640 yuan / ton. With bulls increasing positions one after another, the center of gravity of Shanghai copper fluctuated in a narrow range above the daily moving average until it closed at 51710 yuan / ton at noon. At the opening of the afternoon, bulls entered the market to pull up copper prices to climb the intraday high of 51990 yuan / ton. Bulls made profits from this high position and superimposed short positions, and the market declined, falling to 51790 yuan / ton. Near the end of the day, the center of gravity of copper in Shanghai rose slightly, and finally closed at 51880 yuan / ton, up 180 yuan / ton, up 0.35%. Today, the main daily position of Shanghai Copper increased by 5412 to 120000, mainly by bulls; trading volume decreased by 40, 000 to 127000. 08 during the contract day, positions were reduced by 5204 to 61000, mainly by short positions, while trading volume decreased by 7000 to 33000. The Federal Reserve said it would extend seven emergency lending facilities until the end of the year, with the implementation of strong fiscal and monetary stimulus policies in the United States maintaining an optimistic tone; in addition, the API crude oil inventory announced in the United States last night was much lower than the previous value, which boosted oil prices and linked copper prices to rise. The Fed's FOMC meeting is about to begin, and the market is betting on more economic stimulus, boosting market risk appetite and helping copper prices run high. Today, the copper in Shanghai is closed, and the opening of KDJ has been reined in. In the evening, we will wait for the guidance of the outer disk to test whether the copper in Shanghai can rush again.

Today, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai is 30 yuan / ton to 90 yuan / ton in the current month, the transaction price of copper in Pingshui is 51770 yuan / ton ~ 51820 yuan / ton, and the transaction price of copper in Shengshui is 51820 yuan / ton ~ 51870 yuan / ton. Shanghai copper continued to withstand 52000 yuan / ton of pressure for many days under the shock, around 51700 yuan / ton to continue the consolidation state. The next month ticket quotation market share has been the majority, the spot continues yesterday's quotation, level copper quotation rises about 40 yuan / ton, good copper quotation rises 90 yuan / ton, the overall market transaction is weak, flat copper more than rising water 30 yuan 40 yuan / ton to have a deal, good copper price space is limited, transaction maintenance 80 million 90 yuan / ton, market reaction is cautious, wet copper transaction price is also stable at 60 ~ 40 yuan discount. Demand is weak near the end of the month, but the low supply of good copper makes the overall rising water not continue to go down, the target price for traders to receive goods is on the low side, and it is difficult to reach an agreement with the holders for the time being, and the quotation is basically in a state of stalemate in recent days. In the afternoon, Shanghai copper surged above 51900 yuan / ton, blocked by 51950 yuan / ton, spot quotation remained stable, market activity was low, Pingshui copper remained stable at 30-40 yuan / ton, good copper rose 80-90 yuan / ton, and the transaction price was 51770-51990 yuan / ton.

 

Aluminum: Lun Aluminum opened at US $1730 / ton in the morning, maintained a wide range during the Asian trading session, and the price difference between high and low was less than US $10 / tonne. After entering the European trading session, Lunal started a new round of upside exploration, but after all, it was once again blocked at the position of 1730 US dollars / ton. As it failed to break through throughout the day, the high level fell back, and the low fell to around 1722.5 US dollars / ton and began to hover. As of 18:10, Lun Aluminum closed at 1722.5 US dollars / ton. The trading volume was 2876 lots, and the position decreased by 1773 hands to 794000 hands, closing at the Xiaoyin line, with the center of gravity unchanged from yesterday. Recently, the US dollar index has recorded new lows, and most of the outer disk metals have strengthened. Lunal continues to perform weakly after refreshing its new high for more than four months. It is expected that it will continue to test the size of the upper space at night, and pay attention to the relevant macro data of the US index and the EU region at night.

Shanghai Aluminum's main 2009 contract opened at 14500 yuan / ton in the morning, 10-minute K-line observation, aluminum horizontal trading slightly fluctuated in the opening period, and fell slightly to the intraday low of 14405 yuan / ton at about 10:45 in the afternoon, and aluminum showed a small upward trend in the later period. at about 14:25 in the afternoon, the intraday high of 14555 yuan / ton was recorded and finished horizontally after recording an intraday high of 14555 yuan / ton, and closed slightly at 14505 yuan / ton at the end of the day. 09 contract day position increased by 15742 to 124087 hands, Shanghai Aluminum Index position increased by 10638 to 384796 hands, K closed in Yang, up 1.22%, futures main contract soon after the change of months, mainly to long positions into the market to pull aluminum prices. The import window of aluminum ingots can be maintained for some time, and the export of electrolytic aluminum inventory is restrained by imports, resulting in a small change in the current inventory level, but it is still at a low level of less than 700000 tons. The logic of low inventory price has not changed, and the trend of aluminum futures is still strong.

Aluminum maintained a wide range of shocks before noon. The spot price of aluminum ingots in Shanghai is between 14760 and 14780 yuan / ton, and the spot price of aluminum ingots in Wuxi is between 14780 and 14800 yuan / ton. the spot price is about 100 yuan / ton higher than yesterday, and the spot price is between 80 yuan and 100 yuan / ton. the spot price difference of the current month and next month is around 10 yuan / ton, the quoted price of imported aluminum ingots is between 14700 and 14720 yuan / ton, and the price in Hangzhou is between 14780 and 14800 yuan / ton. Today, the shippers are very active in shipping, but the willingness to make up the price has not been significantly weakened compared with the previous period. The middleman is mainly responsible for replenishing the goods, and the delivery is mediocre, and the transaction between the buyer and the seller is OK. The normal purchase of a large family today is relatively stable from the point of view of the procurement plan. Downstream on-demand stock is mainly, because the price has increased by more than 100 compared with yesterday, today's replenishment enthusiasm is general, more afraid of high, traders feedback their own cooperation downstream customers feedback order reduction is obvious, the demand for raw materials is not as strong as the previous period. Afternoon aluminum to maintain a high shock, the holder quotes around 14770-14800 yuan / ton, rising water to the disk 70-100 yuan / ton, only a small number of transactions between traders, few downstream.

 

Lead: during the day, Lun lead opened at US $1859 / ton. Trading was light during the Asian session. Lun lead was boosted by Shanghai lead and fluctuated along the daily moving average. After reaching US $1868 / ton, Lun lead gave up some of its gains to near the daily moving average. Entering the European period, Lun lead was supported by the daily moving average, under pressure of 1870 US dollars / ton horizontal adjustment, and then affected by the dollar index to stop falling and rising. Lun lead pulled back below the daily average, supporting a small consolidation of yesterday's closing price of 1861 US dollars / tonne. As of 1700, it was tentatively reported at 1863 US dollars / ton, up 2 US dollars / ton, or 0.11%. Boosted by the rise in lead in Shanghai, Lun lead temporarily closed in Sanlianyang, showing a trend of more shocks, but it always failed to touch the pressure level of 1886 US dollars / ton above, coupled with the fact that the macro epidemic situation in Shanghai showed no sign of improving, the European Central Bank called on euro zone banks to extend the dividend payout time, and the Federal Reserve extended seven emergency loan mechanisms to the end of the year, reflecting the difficulties of overseas economic recovery, and the upward pressure on Lun lead is enormous in the short term. It is expected that the horizontal plate concussion is the main cause of lun lead at night.

During the day, the 2009 contract for Shanghai lead opened at 15485 yuan / ton. In early trading, Shanghai lead was under overall pressure of 15525 yuan / ton, with the daily moving average as the support for high concussion. In the afternoon, bulls increased their positions, driving Shanghai lead up to a high of 15580 yuan / ton since December 2019, but did not stand firm. Bulls saw that the upside had no hope of falling into the bag. Shanghai lead gave up some of its gains, closing at 15555 yuan / ton, up 185yuan / ton, or 1.2%. The position increased by 656 to 23677, and the trading volume decreased by 17032 to 31382. Shanghai lead closed at 4 Lianyang, basically broke through the previous 15540 yuan / ton pressure line, k-line center of gravity moved up, KDJ indicators further upward exposure, overall more technical aspects, but taking into account the fundamentals of the peak season is approaching, consumption expectations are good, Shanghai lead is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term, night attention to whether the bulls can further reach the short-term target of 15600 yuan / ton.

The price of southern lead in Shanghai market is 15535 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton for Shanghai lead 2008 contract, 15535 yuan / ton for Jiangsu and Zhejiang market, 15535-15555 yuan / ton for southern lead contract, and 50-70 yuan / ton for Shanghai lead 2008 contract. Lead is approaching the early platform pressure level, but there has not been a successful breakthrough in the morning. The price quoted by the holder follows the market, and the price price has not changed much from yesterday. At the same time, the lower reaches are afraid of heights and less mining, mainly wait-and-see, and it is difficult to trade at a high price in the bulk market.

Guangdong market Nanhua lead 15500 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton for SMM1# lead price; 1550 yuan / ton for Hunan Shuikoushan, 50 yuan / ton for SMM1# lead price (trader); Jiang Copper 15480 yuan / ton, 30 yuan / ton for SMM1# lead price. In the south of Hechi, Guangxi, 15450 yuan / ton, the average network price is quoted at level water; the small factory in Yunnan is quoted at 14200,250 yuan / ton, and the average lead price of SMM1# is discounted at 200,250 yuan / ton. The price of lead is in the upstream channel, the price of bulk orders in refineries is less, and the supply of goods in the market is relatively tight.

Zinc: zinc in Geneva opened at US $2265 / tonne, the trend of Zinc in Geneva was stable, and it was running around the daily moving average of US $2255 / tonne. In the afternoon, with the further decline of the US index and the general strength of non-ferrous metals, the rising trend of Zinc Geneva rose straight to a narrow range around US $2285 / tonne. As of 17VO3, Lunzin Zinc closed up at US $2286.5 / t, up US $19.50 / t, or 0.86%. The operation of Lun zinc is strong, and the short moving average is bullish, but LME zinc stocks continue to increase by 14000 tons during the day, and the process of dominance of overseas inventory continues, but the expectation of marginal improvement in consumption is dominant, and overseas liquidity easing continues to push up asset prices. it is expected that Lun zinc will continue to run strongly at night, but the trend is not as strong as domestic strength.

During the day, the main force of Shanghai zinc was 2009 and the contract opened at 18355 yuan / ton. at the beginning of the zinc market, the zinc market fell slightly to around 18300 yuan / ton. with the bulls gradually increasing their positions, the zinc futures continued the trend of shock and higher in the night market, and a large number of bulls poured in in the afternoon. Zinc breakthrough high 18720 yuan / ton after a slight adjustment, but the upward trend does not change. The final closing price rose to 18695 yuan / ton, up 535 yuan / ton, or 2.95%. The trading volume increased by 10601 lots to 299000 lots, and the position increased by 15142 lots to 113000 lots. The Shanghai Zinc Index has increased its position by 15733 hands in a day, and the buying power of the bulls is relatively strong. Zinc is expected to refresh its recent high level and achieve a technical breakthrough. At the same time, based on the optimistic judgment on consumption, coupled with the difficulty of breakthrough in short-term refined zinc output, multiple positive support, it is expected that zinc will continue to be strong and oscillating in the evening.

The mainstream trading of zinc in Shanghai was 18390 yuan / ton, Shuangyan 18,550 yuan / ton, and imported zinc 18390,18530 yuan / ton. Shuangyan quoted water at 90,095 yuan / ton in August; Shuangyan quoted water at 100yuan / ton in August, imported zinc was quoted at 80,000yuan / ton in August, and imported zinc was quoted at 18320-18470 yuan / ton in the mainstream of Shuangyan, Shuangyan and Shuangyan respectively. Shanghai Zinc 2008 contract shock higher, the first trading session of the morning market closed at 18390 yuan / ton, the market shock higher, the market supply is more tight, morning holders steady rising water quotation, the market ordinary zinc brand transactions concentrated in the SMM net average price level to rise water 5 yuan / ton, the market followed quotation morning to 2008 contract water 80 yuan / ton, after the rapid transaction, the holder raised the water quotation to 90 yuan / ton; Entering the second period of time, the market trading relatively weakened, the holder maintained a rise of 90,000,000 yuan / ton; zinc shock uplink, downstream purchase willingness to reduce today, but due to tight supply, Shanghai spot water remained stable.

The mainstream transaction of Ningbo Bao was 18370-18620 yuan / ton, and the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai ordinary brand was 10 yuan / ton compared with that of Shanghai. The price difference of ordinary brands in Ningbo was 10 yuan / ton higher than that of ordinary brands in Shanghai, and the average price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai was 10 yuan / ton. Today, zinc prices fluctuated higher. In the first trading session, Tiefeng, Xikuang and Nanhua newspaper rose about 100 yuan / ton for the August contract, Kirin reported about 130 yuan / ton for the August contract, and Huize newspaper reported around 150 yuan / ton for the August contract. Zinc price strengthening market activity is lower, trading is lighter, downstream fear of heights and wait-and-see mood is stronger, today's Ningbo market turnover is weaker than yesterday.

The mainstream turnover of zinc in Guangdong is 18250-18460 yuan / ton, and the quotation is concentrated in the discount of 20-30 yuan / ton to Shanghai zinc 2009 contract, and the discount in Guangdong market is 10 yuan / ton higher than that in Shanghai stock market compared with the previous trading day. In the first trading session, the price is high and fluctuating, the downstream is more wait-and-see and less pick-up, the shippers are relatively active, and the traders receive an appropriate amount of discounts. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize and Tiefeng offer a discount of 10-20 yuan / ton for the September contract of Shanghai zinc. In the second trading session, futures prices strengthened again, with the main contract approaching 18500 yuan / ton. the price rise led to even worse purchasing demand downstream, and the unsmooth shipments of consignors continued to reduce rising water shipments. On the whole, in the process of rising prices, the spot discount pressure increased. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize and Tiefeng offer a discount of 20-30 yuan per ton for the September contract of Shanghai zinc. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize mainstream transactions at 18250-18460 yuan / ton.

The main trading volume of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 18570-18700 yuan / ton, Zijin was traded at 18670-18750 yuan / ton, Huludao was quoted at 19920 yuan / ton, zinc common to 2008 contract was quoted at around 200 yuan / ton to 250 yuan / ton, Zijin was quoted around 300 yuan / ton for August contract, and the price of Zijin rose from 130 yuan / ton to about 140 yuan / ton compared with Shanghai stock market. Today, Shanghai zinc concussion rose, and the spot market raised the discount quotation, which is relatively uniform. The ordinary brand Bering News quoted a rise of 200 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, and Hongyi quoted a rise of 250 yuan per ton for the 08 contract. Chi Hong quoted a rise of 200 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, and the high-priced brand Zijin offered a rise of 300 yuan per ton for the August contract, while Baiyin quoted a rise of 180 yuan per ton for the 08 contract. The fourth Ring Road (delivered) is quoted at 100-150 yuan / ton for the 08 contract, and ha zinc (including out of the warehouse) is quoted at 120 yuan / ton for the 08 contract. Zinc prices rose and fell back today, the first period of time, the market maintained yesterday Shengshui shipments, but smelter shipments were less, traders further bid shipments, of which Hongye and Zijin brands rose more; downstream, futures prices and rising water rose further, downstream wait-and-see will gradually thicken, to maintain weak rigid demand procurement. On the whole, today's turnover is slightly weaker than yesterday. Zinc ingots traded around 18440-18520 yuan / ton.

Tin: the Lunxi electronic plate opened at 18025 US dollars / ton this morning, rose to 18140 U.S. dollars / ton in the morning, fell back after peaking to 17960 U.S. dollars / ton, briefly touched a low, rebounded, and then fluctuated around 18000 U.S. dollars / ton. as of 1730, the latest price of Lunxi is 18000 U.S. dollars / ton, showing a small Yin line, and the physical part is above all moving averages. The lower support level is expected to be near the five-day moving average of 17900 US dollars / ton.

The Shanghai tin 2010 contract opened at 148710 yuan / ton yesterday. After the opening, the short sellers actively entered the market, and the Shanghai tin jumped sharply, the lowest point in the day was 145650 yuan / ton. After hitting the bottom, there was a pullback and fluctuated upward under the influence of long entry. In the morning, the tin opened at 149130 yuan / ton. After opening, the bulls continued the evening momentum to enter the market, fluctuated up to the intraday high of 150830 yuan / ton, and began to wobble downwards under the high pressure of Shanghai tin. After a brief horizontal concussion of 148000 yuan / ton, it continued to decline in late trading, closing at 147570 yuan / ton, down 25836 yuan / ton, down 0.40%, 48747 hands, 25836 positions, an increase of 3050 hands, negative, and the physical part was above all moving lines. It is estimated that the lower support level is located near 145500 yuan / ton at the lower end of the shadow line.

On the spot market, it is quoted at 146500-149500 yuan / ton today. The tin market in Shanghai has not changed much compared with yesterday morning, and the average net price is flat. Spot prices are still high, downstream willingness to receive goods is not strong, rigid demand for procurement. In part of the time, the rising water is in line with the psychological price of the hedges, traders receive a small amount of goods, and the overall trading atmosphere of the Shanghai tin spot market is general. Liter discount, to Shanghai tin 2010 contract near Yunxi Pingshui, Yunzi sticker to Pingshui, small card sticker 2500-3000 yuan / ton.

Nickel: Renni opened at US $13720 / ton today and fell slightly to US $13640 / tonne after opening, while Shanghai Nickel recovered its decline and turned red to US $13785 / tonne after the opening of trading in Shanghai. After that, Lenny fell back to the first line of $13680 / ton after being crushed by short sellers. In the afternoon, Renni gradually rose and consolidated at the US $13700 / ton line. Driven by the strength of US crude oil, Lunni continued to rise after entering the European trading period, reaching as high as US $13820 / tonne. As of 17 50, Lunni temporarily closed at US $13975 / tonne, up US $95 / ton, or 0.69%. In the evening, we will pay attention to the EIA crude oil inventory in the United States that week to test whether Lenny can effectively recover US $13800 / ton.

Shanghai Nickel 2010 main contract today opened at 109650 yuan / ton, after the opening of Shanghai Nickel center of gravity around 109800 yuan / ton first line shock consolidation. At about 11:00, Shanghai Nickel finally reached the 110000 mark, and the bulls immediately increased their positions to apply pressure. Shanghai Nickel reached as high as 110520 yuan / ton, but the bulls stopped their earnings and reduced their positions at the end of the morning trading, causing the Shanghai Nickel to give up to 109710 yuan / ton. Shanghai Nickel continued its decline in afternoon trading, reaching as low as 109310 yuan / ton. Although it stopped falling and rebounded after that, it fell back under pressure again at the 110000 integer mark, and finally closed at 109500 yuan / ton. It closed down 590 yuan / ton, or 0.54% lower. Daily turnover was 652825 lots, and positions were reduced by 3122 lots to 135088 lots. Today, the Shanghai nickel entity is effectively supported by the 5-day moving average, the rebound energy has been released and the Zhongyang column has been recorded, the MACD red column continues to enlarge, and the technical side is still more, but the selling pressure at the 110000 mark is relatively large, and the bulls may compete repeatedly. At night, we should pay attention to the trend of the outer disk and the main position of Shanghai Nickel, and test whether Shanghai Nickel can effectively stand above the 110000 mark.

Today, SMM1 Electrolytic Nickel reported 109300-110200 yuan / ton. Nickel continued to rise in the morning market, and downstream demand was suppressed. Although nickel fell slightly in the late afternoon, it still did not stimulate downstream procurement. The discount is stable compared with yesterday. Russo Nickel 2009 contract with Shanghai Nickel is quoted at 300RMB / ton, the market quotation is more uniform, there is almost no lower price Russo Nickel on the market, the turnover between traders is also reduced, and there is almost no purchase in the downstream. Jinchuan Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 2009 contract rose 300 yuan / ton, today's transaction is also not good. Jinchuan Company's ex-factory price in Shanghai was 110300 yuan / ton, unchanged for the third trading day in a row. Manufacturers have a short opportunity to receive goods after quotation, and some traders take goods, but it is expected to have little impact on the market price. It is expected that the spot discount will remain stable in the future, waiting for customers with rigid demand to enter the market to pick up the goods.

 

 

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