SMM7 March 29: since last week, precious metals have been rising continuously, and gold and silver continued to rise earlier this week. International gold prices rose as high as $1981.08 an ounce in intraday trading yesterday, setting a new all-time high in 2011, heading straight to the $2000 / ounce mark, but then bulls made a profit and gold prices rallied. Can the current bull trend of the precious metal market continue? Can I still get in the car? Will it attract hedging funds? SMM interviewed industry analysts, saying that after a brief correction in gold prices, the long-term upward trend did not change.
Zhan Dapeng, director of non-ferrous research at Everbright Futures, said: the probability of callback consolidation is increasing, just like A shares in July, accelerating the rise often means that a period of market is coming to an end, and the adjustment will come soon. but many people will not think that the bull-running pattern of A-shares will change. Therefore, the rising trend of the gold midline is still relatively certain, and the main reason is that in the midline logic, the Fed's extremely loose monetary policy is "tied" by the slow economic recovery and financial market turmoil. It is also very difficult to effectively exit next year. Real interest rates in the United States are likely to remain negative for a long time, which provides a time dimension for gold to rise.
Zhan Dapeng believes that hedging funds are already deeply involved, but the hedging understood by investors may only be the selling hedging of miners and smelters, but in fact, the buying hedging of gold leasing parties and the selling hedging of gold smelters exist in both directions, and it is more difficult to predict which side of hedging power is stronger. Gold could reach as high as $2600 an ounce next year. "View details
Liu Dongbo, senior researcher of China Investment Anxin Futures Nonferrous Group, believes that under the background of great uncertainty in the global economic and political outlook, the liquidity of the monetary easing market is abundant, and the demand for risk aversion makes gold one of the most popular investment targets. In the first six months, the total size of global gold ETF increased by 734 tons to a record high of 3621 tons, with an increase of an all-time annual inflow. But there is still a gap from the peak of 1340 tonnes set in 2012, which could mean that gold still has room to grow. And real interest rates on US debt still have room to fall further from the current all-time low of-0.9 per cent, thus continuing to drive down the opportunity cost of gold.
Looking forward to the future, in the US election year, the tone of the Fed's monetary easing will not turn, the game between great powers will become the norm, and Trump's "back-to-back battle" and "fancy show" with lagging approval ratings will also become favorable drivers of gold. Under the background that there are many uncertain factors in both economy and politics, gold credit is irreplaceable. After the international gold price hit an all-time high, the upper space has been opened, 2000 US dollars / ounce will be the next target, gold is still available in the future, the upper space is full of imagination. "View details
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