SMM7 March 28: the LME metal market rose across the board in early trading. By around 09:30, Lun Zinc rose nearly 1.3%, Lun Copper and Lun Copper rose nearly 1.1%, Lunxi rose nearly 0.9%, Lun Aluminum rose nearly 0.2%. Domestically, Shanghai Tin rose nearly 4.6%, Shanghai lead rose nearly 2.4%, Shanghai Nickel rose nearly 2.3%, Shanghai Zinc rose nearly 2.1%, Shanghai Aluminum rose nearly 1.2%, and Shanghai Copper rose nearly 0.9%.
As for copper, according to the latest customs data, imports of copper concentrate and its ore totaled 1.5941 million tons in June 2020, down 5.8% from the previous month and an increase of 8.9% over the same period last year. SMM believes that the impact of overseas outbreaks on copper concentrate imports peaked in June, and copper concentrate imports will begin to pick up month-on-month in the following months. The production and shipment of copper mines in Peru suffered the most serious disruption in April, and imports of this part decreased significantly in June after taking into account the shipping schedule. According to SMM, shipments from several major mines to ports in Peru began to resume in mid-late May, so China's imports of copper concentrate from Peru are expected to increase in July. SMM expects copper concentrate imports to be repaired to some extent month-on-month in July, but it is still heavily affected by overseas outbreaks, with imports expected to be around 165-1.75 million physical tons in July.
[SMM analysis] the impact of the overseas epidemic on the import of copper concentrate may have reached its peak and the follow-up materials may continue to repair.
For zinc, according to the latest customs data, imports of zinc concentrates totaled 213100 tons (physical tons) in June 2020, a decrease of 143600 tons (physical tons) compared with May and an increase of 24600 tons (physical tons) over 2019. In July, the Antamina mine in Peru announced on May 27th that it was operating at 80% of its full capacity. After the production and shipment resumed, its zinc concentrate will resume to Hong Kong at the end of July, and other overseas mines will also gradually resume production. It is expected that imported zinc concentrate will pick up slightly in July compared with June. Taken together, SMM expects imports of zinc concentrate to pick up to about 300000 physical tons in July.
[SMM analysis] imports of zinc concentrate fell sharply month-on-month in June compared with the previous month, and imports of Peruvian zinc mines fell sharply.
On the black side, the thread fell nearly 0.1%, the hot coil rose nearly 0.3%, stainless steel rose nearly 0.2%, coke fell nearly 0.2%, coking coal fell nearly 1.1%, iron ore rose nearly 0.4%, and in terms of threads, the terminal demand for rebar this year seems to be particularly worrying-the "doomed" extraordinary Boxer year, torrential rain, flood season and epidemic situation. The market finally waited for the epidemic to stabilize, opened its arms to meet the demand for "retaliatory" return, did not want the flood season to follow, South China, Southwest, and East China fell one after another. Demand is expected in August. Under the condition that the production of steel mills is basically stable, the fundamentals of steel, especially rebar, are showing a marginal improvement, and the bottom support of its price is also gradually strengthening. Although there is still a high inventory scale to suppress in the short term, but after the replenishment of demand, the inventory has been removed to reach a healthy range, and it is imperative for steel prices to rise.
[SMM Analysis] the requirements are not "virtual"-when will the terminal requirements "arrive"?
Crude oil fell nearly 0.8% in the previous period, with hopes that stimulus measures will help revive the u.s. economy, as the weak dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for investors holding other currencies, which also helps boost oil prices. Analysts point out that if we can put more money in consumers' pockets, they will spend money on goods and services, which should lead to more demand for gasoline, travel and shopping.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose nearly 2.5%, and Shanghai silver rose nearly 8%. Gold prices have been driven by concerns about the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the global economy, the weakness of the dollar and investor concerns about the sustainability of the recent rally in US stocks.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
Brief comments on SMM:
Copper: last night, Lun Copper closed at 6430 US dollars / ton, up 0.47%. The trading volume was 11000 lots, and the long positions increased by 2411 to 317000 lots. The Shanghai Copper 2009 contract closed at 51600 yuan / ton, down 0.005%. The trading volume was 49000 lots, and the bulls reduced their positions by 162 to 113000 lots. Yesterday, the dollar index broke its lowest level since June 2018 to 93.47, as the dollar fell, dollar borrowing rates fell, monetary easing continued to push up large asset prices, spot gold hit an all-time high of $1945 in intraday trading, and US stocks rebounded yesterday. On the other hand, concerns about soaring new epidemics in the US and geopolitical risk restrictions on risky assets, copper prices fluctuated near the five-day moving average yesterday to repair some of the earlier declines, and overall market sentiment remained restrained. On the spot side, the market demand for bills weakens, and the holders who hold monthly tickets are less willing to raise prices. It is expected to be 6430-6490 US dollars / ton for Lun Copper and 51600-52000 yuan / ton for Shanghai Copper today. It is expected that the spot water will rise to 30-80 yuan / ton today.
Aluminum: yesterday, Shanghai Aluminum's main 2008 contract opened low at 14365 yuan / ton in the morning, opening up to cover the gap, and then shock continued to rise, with a high of 14515 yuan / ton in the afternoon; afternoon prices fell slightly from 14510 yuan / ton to 14440 yuan / ton, closing at 14440 yuan / ton, trading volume reduced to 65000 hands, position reduced to 99000 hands, daily line closing cross star. The total position of Shanghai Aluminum Futures was 377000 lots, and the trading volume was reduced to 179000 lots. Yesterday night, the main force of Shanghai Aluminum changed to 2009 contracts, which opened as low as 14175 yuan / ton, then fluctuated steadily upward, rising more than 100 yuan to 14285 yuan / ton, after 23:00 in 14250-14290 yuan / ton, closing at 14270 yuan / ton. The impact of epidemic and political factors at home and abroad is uncertain, fundamental inventories are still relatively low, spot stocks are rising, and the futures structure has not changed. It is expected that today's Shanghai Aluminum 2009 contract operating range of 14100-14500 yuan / ton.
Lead: overnight, Shanghai lead opened at 15195 yuan / ton. At the beginning of trading, Shanghai lead rose rapidly, the overall center of gravity moved up, the high position reached 15395 yuan / ton, then fell slightly, and finally reported at 15350 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.72%. Lead fundamentals are expected to improve, the recent market supply is tight, consumption rebounded obviously.
Zinc: overnight, the main 2009 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 18060 yuan / ton, which was dragged down by the outer disk at the beginning of the day. Shanghai zinc quickly fell to 17890 yuan / ton, short sellers stopped earnings and left the market, and Shanghai zinc concussion recovered all its decline. after a short period of finishing at a high of 18160 yuan / ton, the upward trend remained unchanged, further touching a high of 18235 yuan / ton, suppressed by Brin Road's upper rail, during which many attempts failed, at the end of the session, short positions were high, and Shanghai zinc concussion was lower. After giving up some of the gains, it finally closed up at 18110 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton, or 0.11%. The trading volume decreased to 103880 lots, and the position increased by 1423 lots to 99178 lots. Overnight, Shanghai zinc recorded a positive column, the upper Bollinger Road rail to form a compression, the lower 10-day line support, MACD positive column narrowed. Overnight, driven by the outer disk, Shanghai zinc showed a trend of first suppressing and then rising, with continuous macro-overseas economic stimulus, superimposed peak season and flood season reconstruction consumption expectations, positive profits of domestic industrial enterprises to boost the trend of Shanghai zinc. The contract price of Shanghai Zinc 2009 is expected to operate in the range of 18000-18500 yuan / ton, and it is expected that the price of domestic Shuangyan zinc will rise by 80-90 yuan / ton in August.
Nickel: overnight Shanghai Nickel 10 contract opened at 110000 yuan / ton yesterday, under pressure of the integer gate, opening short positions mainly, Shanghai nickel concussion down to explore a low of 109210 yuan / ton at night, after being supported, concussion revived to 110130 yuan / ton, the center of gravity rose to 109800 yuan / ton, and then fluctuated in a narrow range around that position until closing at 109960 yuan / ton, down 180 yuan / ton, or 0.16%, compared with the previous trading day, and the trading volume was 285000 lots. The position decreased by 1690 hands to 146000 hands. Overnight, Shanghai nickel closed in the long lower shadow line small negative column, the lower moving average is multi-headed, and the upper 110000 yuan / ton gate pressure is relatively strong. Today, we still need to pay attention to the operation of Shanghai nickel pressure in this position.
Tin: spot market, quoted yesterday at 141000-145000 yuan / ton. The tin market in Shanghai rose, and the average net price rose 750 yuan / ton. Futures rose faster, some small-brand discounts were enlarged in the morning, and the willingness of hedgers to receive goods was better than that of last week, and some traders restocked at bargains. The absolute price is high, there is still a small amount of rigid demand downstream, and the overall turnover in the Shanghai tin market is mediocre. Liter discount, near Yunxi Pingshui for Shanghai tin 2009 contract, Yunzi paste 500yuan / ton to Pingshui, small card paste 3000 yuan / ton. Today's forecast: today's morning is higher than yesterday's morning, it is expected that today's mainstream transaction price may be 147500-151000 yuan / ton.
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