SMM, July 27th:
Copper: today Apanlon Copper opens at US $6410.5 / ton. After the opening of Shanghai copper, the bulls entered the market to pull up the copper price in the short term to 6450 US dollars / ton, and then fell back to 6430 US dollars / ton winding daily moving average horizontal finishing. The bullish offensive resumed, Lun Copper climbed to an intraday high of $6471 / ton, but due to the limited momentum of the rise, Lun Copper fell and shook down to $6411 / ton. Lunchen copper rebounded about $20 / tonne after falling, but the continued pressure on bears caused the market to fall again. Lun Copper closed at US $6417 per tonne, up US $17 per tonne, or 0.27 per cent, as of 17PUR 00. At present, Sino-US relations continue to ferment, investors' risk aversion is rising, the dollar index continues to fall to a 22-month low, and capital flows to base metals help copper prices rise. Today, Lunchong closed the sun, the upper pressure 5 / 10 moving average, continue to pay attention to the development trend of Sino-US relations, test whether Lunchu can continue to rise.
Today, the main force of Shanghai copper opened at 51640 yuan / ton in the morning. After the opening, the bulls increased their positions to pull the short-term rise in copper prices, but there was not enough energy to push up, and the disk fell to 51490 yuan / ton. After exploring the low copper price, it rebounded slightly and arranged horizontally around 51600 yuan / ton. In the second trading session, the center of gravity of Shanghai copper rose somewhat, crossed the daily moving average and climbed the intraday high of 51870 yuan / ton, closing at 51720 yuan / ton at noon. In the afternoon, copper prices fell below the daily average, the center of gravity stabilized at 51630 yuan / ton, and closed at 51600 yuan / ton in late trading, down 200 yuan / ton, or 0.39%. Today, the main contract of Shanghai Copper reduced its positions by 164lots to 113000 hands, mainly for short positions, and the trading volume decreased by 47000 lots to 152000 hands. 08 during the contract day, positions were reduced by 2903 to 69000, mainly by short positions, while trading volume decreased by 24000 to 49000. Today, the overall trend of copper in Shanghai is stable, and the macro aspect is still dragged down by tensions between China and the United States. geopolitical risks have led to a continuous rebound in market risk aversion and pressure on copper prices, but the macroeconomic environment continues to improve. Manufacturing PMI in Europe and the United States rose above the boom-bust line in July, and Shanghai copper was boosted by positive factors of sustained economic improvement. From a fundamental point of view, the mine-side supply problems caused by the South American epidemic still exist. Customs data show that Peruvian copper concentrate imports fell 28.75% in June from a year earlier, and short-term tight mine supply also supported high copper prices. Today, Shanghai copper closed the sun, the upper pressure 5 days, 10 days moving average, in the evening waiting for the outer disk guidelines, test whether Shanghai copper can go up again.
Today, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai quoted a price of 30 yuan / ton to 100 yuan / ton for that month's contract, 51620 yuan / ton to 51780 yuan / ton for Pingshui copper, and 51660 yuan / ton to 51820 yuan / ton for Shengshui copper. The pressure of copper in Shanghai is 52000 yuan / ton along the first line of 51700 yuan / ton. today, the market focus is around the bills of the current month and next month. The holders of monthly tickets are slow in their willingness to raise prices. They hold the opening price of the monthly tickets and quote a price of 600.70 yuan / ton for copper in flat water, and about 100yuan / ton for good copper. It is difficult to make a deal, the market demand for bills weakens, the price quoted by the holders is lowered, and the good copper is concentrated around 80,000yuan / ton. Leveling copper is mostly around 40 yuan / ton-60 yuan / ton. However, there is a big difference in invoice performance next month, and most of the holders have transferred to next month's ticket quotations, which are concentrated on Pingshui copper 30 yuan 40 yuan / ton, good copper water 60 yuan 70 yuan / ton, and wet copper quotation around 50 yuan / ton. This month's long order has come to an end, when the monthly ticket gradually withdrew from the mainstream stage, most of today's transactions revolve around the demand for next month's ticket, and the transaction activity of next month's invoice occupies the mainstream. Today, the lower reaches of the market to maintain rigid demand, still give priority to wait-and-see, market trading is dominated by trade speculators. In the afternoon, the rising price of the disk was blocked and the trend was restrained, but the spot quotation was stable. The monthly ticket of Pingshui Copper was still rising 30-40 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton in that month, 60-80 yuan / ton in good copper, 80-90 yuan / ton in that month, and the transaction price was 51630-51770 yuan / ton.
Aluminum: Lomalco opened at US $1696.5 / tonne this morning. In Asian trading, it shook upwards after opening, surging 1706 US dollars / tonne at about 11:00 in the afternoon. But the shock fell slightly near the high of $1700, to $1704.5 a tonne at 15: 00. During the European session, the LME inventory report showed an increase of 19225 tons today, with inventory increments coming from Asia and Singapore. Roon Aluminum continued its volatile downward trend, falling below the $1700 mark at one point, falling below $1696 / ton, and temporarily reported $1701.5 / ton as of 17: 08. The day K temporarily closed in the barefoot short Yang line, the center of gravity fell on the 5-day moving average, and the day was dominated by short positions. The US Markit manufacturing PMI index is above the Rongku line for the first time since February, global crude oil demand has also rebounded, and the current foreign economy has steadily restarted, giving Lun aluminum prices some support. Ln Aluminum is expected to continue to test the support effectiveness of the $1700 barrier in the evening, and the downside space is limited. In the near future, we need to pay attention to the development of the situation between China and the United States and the flow of funds.
Shanghai Aluminum 2008 contract opened at 14365 yuan / ton in the morning, opening short positions, aluminum futures pulled up to open an upward trend, and then the bulls entered continuously. Although some bulls left the market at a profit, aluminum futures rose continuously to around 11:15 at noon, recording an intraday high of 14515 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, bulls made a profit to reduce their positions and left the market, and the aluminum price fell, and fell to around 14435 yuan / ton at about 14:00. The short positions were reduced at the end of the day, and the aluminum futures stopped falling sideways and closed at 14440 yuan / ton at the end of the day. The position in 08 contract day decreased by 4692 to 99005, and the position in Shanghai Aluminum Index increased by 895 to 377445. The daily K closed in Yang, with the center of gravity above the 5-day moving average, an increase of 0.24%, mainly due to short positions during the day. The current position of Shanghai Aluminum 09 contract is 99722 hands. Since then, the main contract has completed the monthly change. Under the price difference back structure, the price difference is in the range of 200-220 yuan / ton. After the main force completes the monthly change, the bullish force may narrow the price difference level between the current month and the main force.
Aluminum futures fluctuated in the range after the shock uplink before noon. The spot price of aluminum ingots in Shanghai is between 14560-14580 yuan / ton, and the spot price of aluminum ingots in Wuxi is between 14570-14590 yuan / ton. the spot price is 30 yuan / ton higher than last Friday, and the spot water is between 90-110yuan / ton. the rising water is basically the same last week, some imported aluminum ingots are between 14520-14540 yuan / ton, and the prices in Hangzhou are between 14590-14600 yuan / ton. Today, the supply of goods in the market is still loose, and the enthusiasm of shippers is significantly higher than that of the previous two weeks. Middlemen take into account that the rising water has dropped, the receiving of goods is also more active, and the two sides are trading well. On the whole, there are more shippers than receivers. A large family received the goods normally today, and the purchase volume was no more than ten thousand tons. Downstream goods are mainly shipped on demand, and the willingness to replenish the goods is not high. The overall transaction in East China is mediocre today. Aluminum fell back in the afternoon to maintain a narrow range of volatility, the price of the holder tends to follow the order, the price is around 14560 yuan / ton, and the rising water to the disk is around 100 yuan / ton, only a small amount of transactions are made among traders, and there are few downstream.
Lead: during the day, Lun lead opened at US $1829 / ton. Trading was light during the Asian session. Lun lead fluctuated upward along the daily moving average line in Shanghai, and consolidated near the 5-day moving average of US $1823.2 / ton, reaching a high of US $1826.5 / ton. Entering the European session, affected by the rebound of the US dollar index, Lun lead pulled back below the daily average and found support for horizontal adjustment at a low of US $1816.5 / tonne. As of 1615, it was tentatively reported at US $1816.5 / t, up US $6 / t, or 0.33%. Lun lead temporarily reported barefoot short sun, the trend is strong, but the k-line entity is still below the 20-day moving average, above the 5-day moving average and 10-day moving average downward bend, Lun lead upward pressure is greater. Today, LME lead inventory increased again by 10100 tons to 117700 tons, achieving five consecutive increases, but the disk still did not show a clear short-term trend, indicating that the lower support of Lun lead is relatively stable, and it is expected that Lun lead will still be dominated by horizontal market shocks in the short term. At night, we should pay attention to whether Lun lead can return above the 20-day moving average.
During the day, the 2009 contract for Shanghai lead opened at 15030 yuan / ton. In early trading, Shanghai lead, boosted by the general rise of non-ferrous metals, fluctuated upward away from the daily moving average, reaching a high of 15260 yuan / ton in the afternoon, the bulls made a profit and reduced their positions, and Shanghai lead gave up some of its gains, closing at 15160 yuan / ton, up 1.24%. The position decreased by 235 to 22852, and the trading volume increased by 3155 to 33631. Shanghai lead closed on the Changyang line, most of the k-line entities stood above the 10-day moving average, the 5-day moving average showed signs that it was about to cross the 10-day moving average, the KDJ index turned to upward exposure, and the technical side showed a trend of idling, but the bulls left the market at a high level, risk aversion was obvious, and the upward pressure on Shanghai lead still existed. Fundamentally, the social inventory of lead ingots has declined, the supply of goods in some areas is tight, and the consumer demand in the lower reaches has picked up somewhat, but the peak consumption season has not yet arrived. Shanghai lead is expected to remain volatile in the short term. At night, we should pay attention to whether Shanghai lead can stabilize its 5-day moving average and 10-day moving average.
Shanghai market Mulun lead 15245 yuan / ton, flat water quotation for Shanghai lead 2008 contract; Jiangsu and Zhejiang market Muleng and Yuteng lead 15245 yuan / ton, flat water quotation for Shanghai lead 2008 contract; imported KZ lead 15145-15165 yuan / ton, discount 100-80 yuan / ton for Shanghai lead 2008 contract. Lead futures are strong upward, the shippers continue to ship, and the quotation is lowered, while there is a regional shortage of goods in the spot market. A small number of consignors offer a price of 150 yuan / ton for the Shanghai lead 2008 contract, and downstream pick up goods on demand. Most of the transactions are near Pingshui, and the volume of Gaoshengshui is less.
Guangdong market Nanhua lead 15100 yuan / ton, flat water quotation for SMM1# lead price; Minshan, Henan province, 15200 yuan / ton, for SMM1# lead price 100 yuan / ton; Shuikoushan, Hunan, 15150 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton for SMM1# lead price (trader); Jiangtong 15100 yuan / ton, flat water price for SMM1# lead. Yunnan small factory 14800 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 300 yuan / ton. Lead prices fluctuate upstream, market trading is still good, downstream on-demand procurement, refinery bulk supply is less.
Zinc: zinc in Geneva opened at US $2213.5 / ton, the center of gravity of Zinc in Pancu rose to a narrow range around US $2225 / ton, and the afternoon amplitude expanded, still on the axis of the daily moving average. As of 1648, Lunzin closed up US $2224 / ton, up US $12.50 / tonne, or 0.57%. Lun Zinc closed a small positive pillar, trapped between the 5th and 10th moving average, continuing the high shock situation, LME zinc inventory in the later stage of the epidemic has become apparent one after another, the total daily inventory has reached 158800 tons, the marginal improvement of consumption is expected to continue to exist, it is expected that Lun Zinc will still be easy to rise and difficult to fall, ready to wait for a breakthrough.
During the day, the main 2009 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 18085 yuan / ton. at the beginning of the session, driven by bullish positions, the zinc futures rose rapidly, the center of gravity moved up to 18150 yuan / ton, the high hit 18220 yuan / ton, and the funds quickly left in the afternoon. Zinc concussion and decline recorded a V word reversal, and finally closed up at 18130 yuan / ton, up 70 yuan / ton, or 0.39%. The trading volume decreased by 37028 to 197000 hands, and the position increased by 2883 to 97755 hands. Zinc turn red in the future, mainly driven by increasing the warehouse, it will take time for the smelter output to rise to the best level, and social inventory continues to decline, but it is expected to passivate the zinc contradiction relatively clearly, and zinc is expected to continue to operate in shock at night.
The mainstream trading of zinc in Shanghai was 18190 yuan / ton, Shuangyan was traded at 18210 yuan / ton, imported zinc was traded at 18190 yuan / ton, zinc was generally quoted at 80,085 yuan / ton in August, Shuangyan quoted water at 90,100 yuan / ton in August, imported zinc was quoted at 60,080 yuan / ton in August, and zinc mainstream in Shuangyan sold at 18120-18200 yuan / ton. Shanghai Zinc 2008 contract shock operation, the first trading session of the morning market closed at 18140 yuan / ton, late trading shock consolidation, morning holders raised water quotation, the market of ordinary zinc brand transactions concentrated in the SMM net average price near the level, the market quotation morning to 2008 contracts 80 yuan / ton, after some holders raised the water price to 85 yuan / ton; entered the second period, the market trading is insipid, the holder maintains the rising water quotation, the market quotation is 80 yuan / ton for the 2008 contract in the morning, and the latter part of the consignor raised the water quotation to 85 yuan / ton; entering the second period, the market trading is flat, and the holder maintains the rising water quotation. The futures market maintains a strong trend. Today, the downstream purchases on demand, the market trading is still good, and traders actively ship goods at high prices.
The mainstream turnover of zinc in Guangdong is 18080-18180 yuan / ton, and the quotation is concentrated on the discount of 10 yuan / ton to even water for the 2009 contract of Shanghai zinc, and the discount of 80 yuan / ton in Guangdong stock market is 10 yuan / ton higher than that of the previous trading day. In the first trading session, the holder initially shipped the goods at a relatively straight price, but the price was high and fluctuating, the downstream wait-and-see mood was strong, the market price was difficult, and the quotations of some consignors were loosened in the later period. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize, Tiefeng quoted a discount of 10 yuan / ton to flat for the September contract of Shanghai zinc. The second trading session, downstream only rigid demand procurement, individual holders hang order price is higher, can appropriately reduce the discount range of shipment, pressure spot up discount performance, transactions are mostly contributed by traders. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize, Tiefeng quoted for Shanghai zinc September contract water 10 yuan / ton to Pingshui. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize mainstream transactions at 18080-18180 yuan / ton.
The mainstream transaction of Ningbo Bao was 18240-18300 yuan / ton, and the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai ordinary brand narrowed from 40 yuan / ton to 30 yuan / ton from 40 yuan / ton to 30 yuan / ton. Today, zinc prices fluctuated higher. In the first trading session, Tiefeng, Xikuang and Nanhua were near 100-110 yuan / ton for the August contract, Kirin about 120-140 yuan / ton for the August contract, and Huize reported that around 150 yuan / ton for the August contract. Ningbo market activity declined, coupled with the sharp fall in zinc prices last Friday has stimulated downstream buying and buying for the better, the market wait-and-see mood is stronger, trading is light. The overall market turnover was mediocre.
The mainstream turnover of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 18310-18400 yuan / ton, Zijin was traded at 18360-18440 yuan / ton, Huludao was quoted at 19660 yuan / ton, zinc common to 2008 contract was quoted around 180 yuan / ton to 220 yuan / ton, Zijin was quoted around 260 yuan / ton in August contract, and the water in Tianjin was about 130 yuan / ton higher than that in Shanghai. Today, Shanghai zinc concussion rose, and the spot market raised the discount quotation, which is relatively uniform. The ordinary brand Bering News quoted 180 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, and Hongyi quoted a rise of 210-220 yuan per ton for the 08 contract. Chi Hong quoted a rise of 200 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, and the high-priced brand Zijin quoted a rise of 260 yuan per ton for the August contract, while Baiyin quoted a rise of 150 yuan per ton for the 08 contract. The fourth Ring Road (delivered) quoted 120 yuan / ton of water for the 08 contract, and Ha Zn (including the depot) quoted 80 yuan / ton for the 08 contract. Zinc prices fluctuated and rose today. During the first period of time, Tianjin continued its quotation for rising water last week, entering the second period of time. Due to the shortage of cash liquidity, traders and smelters raised and pasted water to ship goods; downstream, both prices rose today. Downstream enterprises maintain rigid demand procurement. On the whole, today's transaction is the same as that of last week. Zinc ingots traded around 18150-18230 yuan / ton.
Tin: Lunxi electronic trading opened at 17670 US dollars / ton this morning, climbed to 17835 U.S. dollars / ton in the morning, and then pulled up again in the afternoon. After pushing up US $17895 / ton in the afternoon, give up some of the gains, and after being supported near the daily moving average of US $17800 / ton in the European period, Lunxi fell below the daily moving average, explored a low of US $17620 / tonne and rebounded after being supported at the 5-day moving average, temporarily getting rid of the low. As of 16Suzhou 45, the latest price of Lunxi is 17700 US dollars / tonne, showing a cross star, and the physical part is above all moving averages. It is expected that the support of the 5-day moving average will still be tested below, and the upper target is still the area on the Bollinger track. Pay attention to the long kinetic energy release of the outer disk at night.
The trading volume and position of Shanghai tin 2010 contract exceeded 2009 contract today, and the main force changed to Shanghai tin 2010 contract from today. Today, the closing price of Shanghai tin 2010 contract is 146790 yuan / ton, and the closing price of Shanghai tin 2009 contract is 146510 yuan / ton, with a difference of 280 yuan / ton from October to September. The Shanghai tin 2010 contract opened at 141900 yuan / ton last Friday, opened low at night and went up along the daily moving average, closing at 144030 yuan / ton. It opened at 144000 yuan / ton this morning. At the start of trading, it broke through the first line of 145550 yuan, and the high position temporarily stalled. In the morning, the disk did short-term high shock finishing, and the operating center of gravity moved upwards. And in the range of 145000-155600 yuan / ton, the shock was less than 500 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, Huxi once again opened a strong pull trend, touching the highest point in the day and the highest point of the year so far 147090 yuan / ton. After rushing up, it showed the increase, closing at 146790 yuan / ton. It rose 4870 yuan per ton, or 3.43%, with a turnover of 40689, a position of 18141, and an increase of 8584, showing a long positive line. during the day, Shanghai tin rose strongly, technically it has formed an effective breakthrough, and the bulls still have room to rise. however, we need to be on guard against the downside risk brought by Brin's on-rail pressure belt.
On the spot market, it is quoted at 141000-145000 yuan / ton today. The tin market in Shanghai rose, and the average net price rose 750 yuan / ton. Futures rose faster, the early part of the small-brand discount enlarged, the hedger willingness to receive goods has improved compared with last week, some traders meet bargain replenishment. The absolute price is high, there is still a small amount of rigid demand downstream, and the overall turnover in the Shanghai tin market is mediocre. Liter discount, near Yunxi Pingshui for Shanghai tin 2009 contract, Yunzi paste 500yuan / ton to Pingshui, small card paste 3000 yuan / ton.
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