SMM Evening Comments (Jul 27): Shanghai base metals ended mostly higher on Monday

Published: Jul 27, 2020 18:19 (GMT+8)
SHFE nonferrous metals, except for copper, closed higher on Monday July 27, as positive manufacturing data from the eurozone and US reinforced expectation of global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

SHANGHAI, Jul 27 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals, except for copper, closed higher on Monday July 27, as positive manufacturing data from the eurozone and US reinforced expectations of global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. 


But investors remained cautious amid concerns over growing diplomatic tensions between China and the US, as the US consulate in Chengdu had closed today, according to reports. 


Tin was the best performer with a rise of 2.83%. Nickel advanced 2.04%, aluminium rose 0.14%, lead climbed 1.54%, zinc added 0.39%, while copper shed 0.39%.


The ferrous complex traded mostly lower as iron ore continued to give up previous gains and fell 1.99%. Rebar slipped 1.22%, hot-rolled coil dipped 1.13%, coke dropped 1.63%, while stainless steel increased 0.73%. 


Copper: The most-traded SHFE contract traded rangebound today with an intraday high of 51,870 yuan/mt, ending down 0.39% on the day at 51,600 yuan/mt. Open interest shrank 164 lots to 113000 lots as investors cut their short positions. Pandemic-triggered uncertainty around copper mining in South America underpinned the red metal. Customs data showed that China’s copper concentrate imports from Peru decreased 28.75% year on year in June, and this also grew worries about tight supply. Tonight, the contract will likely test pressure above from the five and 10- day moving averages.  


Aluminium: The most-liquid SHFE contract shifted to the September contract, from the August contract, which rose to a session high of 14,515 yuan/mt and ended the day 0.14% higher at 14,440 yuan/mt. Low inventories of domestic primary aluminium will support prices. 


Zinc: The most-active SHFE September contract trimmed gains after loaded-up longs sent it to a session high of 18,220 yuan/mt. It closed the day at 18,130 yuan/mt, up 0.39% on the day. Domestic social inventories of zinc continued to fall as it requires time for smelters to ramp up capacity. The contract may extend its rangebound trend tonight. 


Nickel: The most-traded SHFE October contract climbed above 110,000 yuan/mt to the highest level in more than six months, at 110,810 yuan/mt, before it pared some gains and closed at 110,140 yuan/mt, up 2.04% on the day. Open interest surged 29,002 lots to 147,737 lots, driven by a buildup of long positions. The reopening of nickel mining companies in the Philippines will unlikely reverse nickel ore shortage in China, and this supported prices. Pressure above from 110,000 yuan/mt will be monitored tonight. 


Lead: The most-active SHFE September contract climbed amid a broad rally in base metals, rising to an intraday high of 15,260 yuan/mt and closing the day 1.54% higher at 15,160 yuan/mt. Technical indicators turned positive and fundamentals improved amid a decline in domestic lead ingot inventories and tight supply in some areas. A traditional peak consumption season has not arrived. Tonight, the contract is expected to test support from the five- and 10- day moving averages. 


Tin: The most-liquid SHFE October contract traded robustly today as it extended increase from last Friday night, surged to the highest level this year at 147,090 yuan/mt and finished up 2.83% on the day at 146,790 yuan/mt. Open interest increased 8,584 lots to 18,141 lots. Pressure above from the Bollinger upper band will be watched tonight. 

 

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn
For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn
Related News
Panama Panel Backs Conditional Cobre Panamá Restart to Fund Eventual Closure
1 min ago
Panama Panel Backs Conditional Cobre Panamá Restart to Fund Eventual Closure
Read More
Panama Panel Backs Conditional Cobre Panamá Restart to Fund Eventual Closure
Panama Panel Backs Conditional Cobre Panamá Restart to Fund Eventual Closure
A Panamanian ministerial commission has recommended opening formal negotiations with First Quantum Minerals over a potential restart of Cobre Panamá. Under the proposal, the mine could resume operations without expanding its footprint, with operating revenue funding rehabilitation, long-term monitoring and an eventual orderly closure at no cost to the state. Any agreement would require all pending international arbitration claims to be terminated and could not be extended. The report did not specify the scale or duration of a restart. Cobre Panamá previously accounted for around 1% of global copper production. Until an agreement and timetable are confirmed, the near-term impact on copper concentrate supply remains limited.
1 min ago
Escondida supervisors vote 95% to authorise strike; talks enter mandatory mediation
2 mins ago
Escondida supervisors vote 95% to authorise strike; talks enter mandatory mediation
Read More
Escondida supervisors vote 95% to authorise strike; talks enter mandatory mediation
Escondida supervisors vote 95% to authorise strike; talks enter mandatory mediation
Sindicato N°2 de Supervisores y Staff at BHP's Escondida copper mine in Chile rejected the company's final wage offer, with 95% voting to authorise strike action. The union of about 1,020 supervisors objected to limited pay improvements, multi-tasking requirements and a proposed 14x14 shift rotation. Chilean law now mandates at least five days of government mediation, extendable by five more, before any legal walkout. The mine produced 1.26 million tonnes in fiscal 2026, down 3% year on year, with fiscal 2027 guidance of 1.0-1.1 million tonnes. Production is currently unaffected, but the vote compounds supply risk after a fatal accident halted operations in late September.
2 mins ago
India Has Yet to Decide on Scrapping Pre-Shipment Inspections for Metal Scrap Imports
30 mins ago
India Has Yet to Decide on Scrapping Pre-Shipment Inspections for Metal Scrap Imports
Read More
India Has Yet to Decide on Scrapping Pre-Shipment Inspections for Metal Scrap Imports
India Has Yet to Decide on Scrapping Pre-Shipment Inspections for Metal Scrap Imports
India has not yet decided whether to remove the pre-shipment inspection requirement for imported metal scrap, the Directorate General of Foreign Trade said on September 30. The authority is reviewing a proposal from the Material Recycling Association of India and remains open to further easing compliance requirements. MRAI has argued that a shortage of India-authorized inspection agencies in several exporting countries is creating certification and logistical constraints for scrap shipments. Reuters India imports around 13 million tonnes of recyclable metal scrap annually from more than 160 countries, with roughly 2,500 containers arriving each day. MRAI has proposed recognizing more overseas inspection agencies and expanding the list of low-risk origins exempt from pre-shipment inspections. DGFT said pre-shipment certification and inspections at Indian ports currently serve different purposes and cannot simply replace each other. Any eventual relaxation could reduce compliance barriers for imported scrap, including copper scrap, and broaden sourcing flexibility for Indian buyers, although no policy change has yet been approved.
30 mins ago