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SMM spot Metal spot Trading Weekly Review (2020.07.20-2020.07.24)
Jul 24,2020 20:07CST
translation
Source:SMM
SMM spot Metal spot Trading Weekly Review (2020.07.20-2020.07.24)
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM, July 24th:

This week, basic metals rose first and then suppressed. SMMI rose 0.77% a week, due to the boost of economic data from Europe and the United States at the beginning of the week, which made the market optimistic about the process of economic recovery, and the dollar index continued to decline. However, the escalation of contradictions in Sino-US relations after the middle of the week increased market risk appetite, bulls left the market and bears suppressed at the right time. Most varieties of base metals rose and then fell back, narrowing their gains. Copper is the most volatile variety, with an amplitude of 2.37% during the week. Lun Copper fell from a surge of US $6600 to US $6400 and repeatedly sorted out. Shanghai copper returned to the 51000 yuan mark from above 52500 yuan, and spot prices fell due to weak buying, and SMMI.Cu rose only 0.44% during the week. Tin performance high shock, although the macro mood is repeated, but Shanghai tin performance anti-fall, consolidation at around 142000 yuan / ton, week volatility of less than 1500 yuan / ton, but the spot rally first rose and then suppressed, trading performance is weaker than futures, SMMI.Sn only rose 0.89% in the week, also showing a high trend of giving up the increase. Aluminum performance slowly repaired last week's decline showed a low rebound, low inventory and low order volume support aluminum prices stable and firm, SMMI.AL weekly 1.18%. The shock pattern of the nickel range has not changed. Although Shanghai Nickel relies on the effective support of the 20-day moving average, it is difficult to break through at the top of the 110000 yuan mark for the time being. the volatility during the week is relatively large, with an amplitude of 4% at one time, but Friday's decline narrowed the weekly increase to 1.69%. Zinc performance is slow, strong resilience, Lun zinc held 2200 US dollars / ton, Shanghai zinc broke through the Wanba mark at the beginning of the week to do repeated testing support, spot zinc prices fell slightly due to the end of the long order, SMMI.Zn rose 1.84% week. The domestic lead price of ten thousand five has become the recent pressure. In that month, positions continued to be reduced, and inventory accumulation was obvious, which temporarily put an end to the strong performance of Shanghai lead before last week. Spot lead became the only variety that rose to fall during the week, with SMMI.Pb down 0.33%. As we enter the end of July next week, the factors at the end of the month will put some pressure on the market, while macroscopically, the main line of the development of Sino-US relations will become the dominant factor of speculative sentiment, and the market as a whole will be cautious and vigilant against the trend of short sells. at the same time, as we are about to enter August, the off-season effect of consumption will become more obvious, and the weak spot situation of various metal items will also put pressure on the futures market.

 

Copper: Lun Copper showed a rise and decline this week, mainly due to rising concerns about international tensions, offsetting the boost of the economic stimulus package in Europe and the United States. Market risk sentiment plummeted in the wake of the news that the US ordered the closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston in mid-week, and Chinese countermeasures over the weekend once again heightened concerns about relations between the two countries. In addition, against the background of the continuing fermentation of the novel coronavirus epidemic, there are signs of a slowdown in the pace of economic recovery, with a higher-than-expected increase in initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States last week, hitting market sentiment, and the prospects for economic recovery are not very optimistic. The fundamentals have not changed significantly. Zhou Chulun copper opened at US $6446.5 per tonne. Spurred by the EU 750 billion recovery Fund agreement, copper prices fluctuated upwards, reaching as high as US $6601.5 per tonne. However, the risky incident of deteriorating Sino-US relations caused copper prices to quickly fall to $6430 / tonne, and then copper prices recovered some of their losses, rising to about $100,000,000 / tonne. Copper prices plummeted again on Friday, failing to hold the $6400 mark. So far, Lun Copper closed at 6379 US dollars per tonne, down 58 US dollars per tonne, or 0.9 per cent in the week. This week, the copper position in Lun decreased by 3000 lots to 316000 lots, while the trading volume decreased by 37000 lots to 107000 lots. At present, Lun copper negative, MACD green column growth, the upper bearing pressure 5, 10-day moving average, the technical side gradually shows partial air pressure. Continue to pay attention to the impact of international political risks on market sentiment and test whether Lunzhong can stop the decline.

The performance of the copper disk in Shanghai this week rose first and then suppressed it. On the domestic side, the one-year and five-year LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months, indicating that the current liquidity is sufficient to support sustained and good economic development, and the GDP increased in the second quarter compared with the same period, which also confirmed the steady recovery of China's economy in the post-epidemic period. On the foreign side, EU countries have reached an agreement on a 750 billion euro recovery fund, and the United States also plans to launch a new round of economic stimulus package worth trillion euros. Market optimism has driven copper prices up. But the escalation of tensions between China and the US became the most bad news, leading to two sharp falls in copper prices, wiping out all of the week's gains. At the beginning of the week, the main force of Shanghai copper opened at 51540 yuan / ton. After a short period of consolidation, it quickly shot up 52260 yuan / ton, jumped high in the middle of the week, and explored the highest point of 52830 yuan / ton in the week. Every time this high short entered the market, the copper price in Shanghai fell back to the 52000 gate and struggled. Near the weekend, the Chinese side's countermeasures heightened the market risk aversion sentiment. Copper price plummeted to a weekly low of 51060 yuan / ton, barely holding the 51000 yuan / ton mark, and now closing at 51220 yuan / ton. It fell 210 yuan per ton in the week, or 0.41%. This week, the main position of copper in Shanghai increased by 21000 hands to 113000 hands, mainly as short positions increased, while trading volume decreased by 225000 lots to 759000 hands. At present, the copper in Shanghai is negative, and the 5-and 10-day EMA adhesion self-support level is twisted to the upper pressure level, and the technical side is gradually empty. We will continue to pay close attention to the development of Sino-US relations and test whether Shanghai Copper can hold the 51000 yuan / ton mark.

The spot market as a whole showed a downward trend this week. At the beginning of the week, it entered the long order delivery cycle, and the copper price was adjusted every period. the traders had an obvious willingness to push up the price, and the spot quotation was raised from 50 yuan / ton to 60 yuan / ton to 130 yuan / ton from 50 yuan / ton to 130 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. And because the good copper supply is difficult to find, the price difference between it and Pingshui copper has widened from the original 20-30 yuan / ton to more than 50 yuan / ton. In the middle of the week, as the supply of warehouse receipts gradually rebounded during the rich superposition period, traders once again showed a willingness to cash at a high level and lowered their quotations, but the downstream consumption was weak under the off-season effect, so it was mostly manifested as fear of high prices and low prices for long single traders to pick up goods at low prices, leading the rising water to decline gradually. As of Friday, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai was quoted as rising water 20 to 90 yuan / ton for that month's contract, with the average price falling 25 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

 

Aluminum: Zhou Nailun aluminum strongly pulled up at 1695 US dollars / ton after the first line concussion operation. From Monday to Tuesday, the US index weakened, while Lunal followed the outer plate and briefly surged to $1709 a tonne on Wednesday, refreshing its highest level since mid-March. Subsequently, due to the escalation of the conflict between China and the United States, Lunal gave up its gains and returned to around $1690. As of 18 o'clock on Friday, Lun Aluminum closed at US $1691 per ton, up 28 US dollars per ton, or 1.68%. Trading volume decreased by 13201 lots to 51178 lots, and positions decreased by 12716 lots to 801000 lots, mainly by short positions. The recent trend of Lun aluminum is greatly affected by fluctuations in the US index, so we need to continue to pay attention to the macro impact on the price of Lun aluminum.

During the week, Shanghai Aluminum slowly repaired the previous week's decline, and the main position contract of Shanghai Aluminum remained at 2008 of the contract in that month. From Monday to Thursday, short positions remained in panic in the month. For four consecutive days, short positions left the city for four consecutive days. Under the strong background of low positions and low inventories, bulls had more confidence in their positions in recent months, and more short positions stimulated prices to rise steadily. It rose to 14545 yuan / ton on Thursday night. Non-ferrous inner market fell on Friday, Shanghai Aluminum 2008 contract long unilateral reduction of more than 5, 000 hands, prices from the high slightly pullback, closing at 14405 yuan / ton during the day, the daily K line returned to near the 5-day moving average. During the week, the main company of Shanghai Aluminum rose 250 yuan / ton, or 1.77%. The trading volume decreased by 358000 to 402000, and the position decreased by 19195 to 104000, mainly by bulls, and the weekly K line closed on the first Zhongyang line. At present, the bulls are strong in recent months, and the back structure and the high spot water level are expected to be maintained next week. We need to continue to pay attention to the short-term fluctuations brought about by changes in spot liquidity and macro aspects, such as the development of Sino-US political relations. It is expected that the main link of Shanghai Aluminum will still be strong and volatile next week, but the upper and lower space is relatively limited.

This week, the spot transaction price in Shanghai is between 14390 and 14540 yuan / ton, and the spot price in Wuxi is between 14400 and 14560 yuan / ton. The weekly average price is down around 303 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the price in Shanghai is slightly higher than that in Wuxi. The actual transaction discount is between 130,260 yuan / ton. As some warehouse receipt goods entered the market after spot delivery last week, the supply of spot aluminum ingots increased significantly this week, and the variety of brands was richer than last week. The circulation of aluminum ingots of brands such as Yulin, Jiarun and Qingtongxia increased compared with last week. In the context of the continuous inflow of imported aluminum ingots, the spot rising water has also dropped compared with last week. This week, the enthusiasm of the shippers increased, the middlemen received the goods mediocre, on the whole, the shippers were slightly more than the receivers, and the transaction between the buyer and the seller was OK. A large household buys normally every day, but there is no big bright spot in terms of quantity and price. Downstream on-demand purchases this week, due to signs of weakness in the consumer side, superimposed aluminum prices remained relatively high during the week, downstream manufacturers rarely hoarded goods, and there were no obvious signs of stock preparation near Friday. The overall transaction in East China is relatively mediocre this week.

 

Lead: the high level of Lun lead fluctuated this week, but there was strong support below the 20-day moving average. At the beginning of Zhou, the lead level rebounded, reaching 1851.5 US dollars / ton. in the next few days, the market macro environment deteriorated, Lun lead did not have enough upward power, and Lun lead concussion fell back to 1820.5 US dollars / ton. recently, the trade situation between China and the United States has deteriorated, the market macro mood is cautious, and the long-term risk appetite has been reduced, but Lun lead is more resistant to falls. Next week, we will continue to pay attention to the changes in Sino-US trade. If there is any relaxation, the market may enter a relatively stable stage.

The fluctuation range of lead in Shanghai is relatively small this week, basically around the 20-day moving average. At the beginning of the week, Shanghai lead concussion rose, reaching a high of 15235 yuan / ton. in the next few days, Shanghai lead rose and fell, and then basically fluctuated around the 20-day moving average, finally reported at 14975 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.74%. China has entered the third quarter, domestic downstream consumption has entered the expected peak season, consumption is expected, the supply of waste batteries is tight, regeneration profits are low, or even some losses, lead fundamental contradictions are low, the trend is relatively optimistic.

The mainstream spot operation this week is 14750-15100 yuan / ton. According to SMM, market trading is good this week, downstream bargain-on-demand procurement, smelter supply is relatively tight, as of Friday, the average price of SMM1# lead in the market rose 50 yuan / ton out of the factory. In the trade market, the supply of goods in the market is relatively abundant, and the spot price has declined. As of Friday, the domestic lead common brand lead contract is 30-50 yuan / ton; in the recycled lead market, the price of waste batteries is high, and corporate profits are low. As of Friday, the mainstream price of recycled lead, including tax, left the factory at an average price discount of 2008 yuan / ton, and a few of them even reported to flat level.

Next week's spot lead forecast: 14800-15150 yuan / ton. According to SMM, lead prices continue to fluctuate at high levels, but at present, refinery bulk order inventory is low, and refinery bulk orders are expected to keep rising water quotations; in the trade market, the supply of goods in the market is relatively abundant, spot water rises or maintain the current level; in terms of recycled lead, the profits of recycled lead enterprises are low, and enterprises have no plans to continue to increase production for the time being. On the consumer side, export orders are expected to improve, market trading is expected to be good, and overall procurement is expected to maintain rigid demand. In addition, the recycled refined lead is expected to be 14600-15000 yuan / ton.

The mainstream spot operation this week is 14750-15100 yuan / ton. According to SMM, market trading is good this week, downstream bargain-on-demand procurement, smelter supply is relatively tight, as of Friday, the average price of SMM1# lead in the market rose 50 yuan / ton out of the factory. In the trade market, the supply of goods in the market is relatively abundant, and the spot price has declined. As of Friday, the domestic lead common brand lead contract is 30-50 yuan / ton; in the recycled lead market, the price of waste batteries is high, and corporate profits are low. As of Friday, the mainstream price of recycled lead, including tax, left the factory at an average price discount of 2008 yuan / ton, and a few of them even reported to flat level.

 

Zinc: this week, the price of Lun zinc fluctuated widely. at the beginning of the week, the price continued the trend of last Friday, once inertia fell back to 2162 US dollars / ton, the price was supported by the 10-day moving average, and the price rebounded. The EU nearly reached an agreement on the EU economic recovery of 750 billion euros, pushing the price of zinc up to 2265 US dollars / ton. At one point on Wednesday, prices opened high and the overall performance was strong, but during the session it was reported that the United States had asked China to close its consulate in Houston, and prices plunged quickly, giving up most of the gains. Market sentiment repaired on Thursday, zinc prices waited for an opportunity to rebound, re-standing above $2200 / ton and then continue to break through, but LME zinc stocks increased by more than 20, 000 tons for two consecutive days, restraining prices to some extent, and pressure remained near the previous high. After the Chinese government took counter-measures on Friday, relations between China and the United States were strained again, market risk aversion increased, and Lun Zinc fell sharply, testing the support of the $2200 mark again, but it was still up 0.96% from a week earlier.

The price of zinc in Shanghai fluctuated strongly this week, the price of zinc fell and rebounded at the beginning of the week, and the downstream purchase volume was enlarged after the price was adjusted back to around 17500 yuan / ton. at the same time, the technical average was supported by the 10-day moving average, and the price rebounded. On Wednesday, the main contract broke the integer mark of 18000 / ton again, and the main contract once shot up to 18330 yuan / ton, but the high price hedging market continued to enter, and the early profit funds were also closed, and the price went up and down. It turned to a volatile trend, but near the close of the afternoon, Sino-US relations made waves again, some bullish funds were eager to avoid safety and left the market, prices reduced their positions, panic remained in the night market, and opening prices fell sharply, but when prices fell, the right amount of money entered the market to try to rebound from the low level, and by Thursday night trading had recovered all the losses. At the opening of trading on Friday, prices fell back, and the Chinese government took countermeasures against the United States during the session. Driven by a large number of safe-haven funds, prices fell rapidly. As of Friday's close, the main contract closed at 17910 yuan / ton, up 0.28% from the previous week.

This week, the domestic contract for 08 in the Shanghai market has been gradually reduced from 100,110yuan / ton to 60,70yuan / ton, Shuangyan and Chihong from 110120yuan / ton to 7080yuan / ton, and SMC and AZ have held steady at 40-60RMB / ton. Zinc prices are strong and volatile this week, approaching the end of long orders, traders' demand for long orders is gradually weakening, while downstream purchases are more on demand, the actual consumption performance is stable, the overall demand is declining, and the market quotation is gradually falling. The second half of the week accelerated down to about 60-70 yuan / ton Shengshui stabilized, the market received goods slightly better, this week's overall turnover is slightly better than last week.

This week, Ningbo Zinc 2008 contract against Shanghai Zinc rose about 80 yuan / ton-100 yuan / ton. This week, the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai changed from a discount of 10 yuan / ton last Friday to around 10 yuan / ton. The Ningbo market is in abundant supply this week, compared with some zinc imports that arrived last week, such as Harbin zinc, Burmese zinc and so on. The price of zinc fell at the beginning of the week, and the willingness of downstream enterprises to buy became stronger. The market basic report of rising water was 80-100 yuan / ton for ordinary brands, about 130-150 yuan / ton for high-price brands, and about 50 yuan / ton for imported zinc in August. Subsequently, zinc prices rose again, and the lower reaches were mainly wait-and-see, followed by a decline in zinc prices near the weekend, rising water fell to ordinary brands for 80-100 yuan / ton in August, and high-priced brands were quoted at around 100-130 yuan / ton. downstream enterprises have a strong willingness to buy whenever they fall, and the overall transaction is getting better. Overall, the spot transaction atmosphere in Ningbo market this week is significantly warmer than last week.

This week's quotation for zinc in the Guangdong market focused on the level of the Shanghai zinc 2009 contract to a rise of 40 yuan per ton, while the discount on the Guangdong market was 70 yuan per ton lower than that of last week. When prices fell at the beginning of the week, the lower reaches entered the market for replenishment at a low price, which led to the transaction, while it was rumored in the market that the traders received the goods and the holders sold the goods at a relatively high price. Kirin, Mengzi and Huize quoted a price of 30-40 yuan per ton for the September contract of zinc in Shanghai. Entering the second half of the week, the center of gravity of zinc prices rose, around 18000 yuan / ton shock, prices were too high to restrain part of the downstream demand, only slightly purchase bargains, the overall demand was weaker than the first half of the week, coupled with the narrowing of futures August / September contract spreads, pressure on the performance of spot rising water in September, the spot rising water weakened under the poor delivery of consignors, and the spot quotation for September contract fell to 10 yuan / ton on Friday. Overall, the current downstream demand is general, only bargain-based procurement, rising prices restrain downstream demand.

This week, the mainstream ordinary brand of Tianjin Zinc rose 110 yuan to 180 yuan / ton in the contract of Shanghai Zinc 2008, while Zijin quoted 180 yuan / ton to 220 yuan / ton in Zijin 2008 contract. Compared with Shanghai, the price of Tianjin rose from 20 yuan / ton to about 110 yuan / ton. At the beginning of this week, zinc prices rebounded, traders maintained ordinary brand quotations to rise to 110-130 yuan / ton, after the price fell, the downstream willingness to pick up goods was better than last week; into the middle of the week, zinc prices remained strong, the price center of gravity continued to move upwards, and due to fewer smelter shipments, the spot liquidity in Tianjin market was scarce, traders shipped at a high price, but the downstream willingness to receive goods turned weaker and maintained rigid demand procurement. Near the weekend, zinc prices rose and fell, and the spot tension in the market was still unresolved. Traders maintained high rising water quotations, with ordinary brands quoted at 150-180 yuan per ton and Zijin quoted at 210-220 yuan per ton, with the transaction unchanged from the middle of the week. On the whole, Tianjin market transactions this week in general, downstream enterprises to maintain rigid demand procurement, next week is expected to rise steadily in the small rise.

 

Tin: the Lunxi electronic market opened at 17305 US dollars / ton this week, and the center of gravity at the beginning of the week was basically the same as that of last Friday, with a slight shock. The center of gravity moved up in the middle of the week, starting to move above the five-day moving average and rising steadily, hitting a weekly high of US $17870 / ton on Friday. Then, under the influence of China's diplomatic countermeasure, under the mood of risk aversion in the market, Lunxi fluctuated all the way down to near the 5th moving average. As of 1645 on Friday, the latest price of Lunxi was 17630 US dollars / ton, up 365USD / ton, up 2.11%, 1967 hands, 15940 positions, an increase of 103hands. The week is positive, the center of gravity has shifted higher than last week, the highest price is close to the high point of Lunar New year, and the physical part is above the 5-day moving average. In terms of indicators, the weekly K-line continues to be steadily close to the Bollinger belt on the track, and the opening of the MACD index is still upward. The daily level K line broke through the Bollinger belt on the orbit for three consecutive days, and the MAC index weekly fast line slightly broke away from the entanglement of the slow line and went above the slow line. The overall operation is stable, the daily K-line is stable above the 5-day moving average, and the upper pressure is expected to be near the high of 17900 US dollars / ton at the beginning of the year.

The Shanghai tin main 2009 contract opened this week at 141200 yuan / ton. at the beginning of the week, the 10-day moving average was between the 20-day moving average, and the center of gravity moved up in the middle of the week, breaking through the 5-day and 10-day moving average. after that, the theme of the daily K-line basically ran steadily above the 5-day moving average, and the overall shock rose, reaching a weekly high of 143770 US dollars / ton. after peaking, it fell back to near the 5-day and 10-day moving average, and then rose again, and after it was pulled up on Friday, Under the influence of China's closure of the US Embassy in Chengdu, the bulls left the market in the afternoon in the mood of risk aversion. Shanghai tin fell back to close at 141840 yuan / ton, rising 570 yuan / ton, or 0.40%, during the week, trading 198000 hands, holding 15622 hands, reducing 13013 hands, showing a small positive line, the shadow line received 5-day moving average support. In terms of indicators, the weekly K line is still slightly moving forward to the Bollinger belt, and the opening of the MACD index is still upward; the daily K line fluctuates widely between the middle tracks on the Bollinger belt, and the MACD index fast line is below the slow line. Shanghai tin has been running above the 20-day moving average since the beginning of April, and the 20-day moving average support is quite stable. recently, due to the escalation of contradictions between China and the United States, the market risk aversion has increased. The Shanghai tin main line has changed from the previous day's high to clinging to the lower 5-20 moving average. It is expected that in the short term, Shanghai tin will fluctuate slightly upward along the five-day moving average, and the upper pressure level is near the weekly high of 143700 yuan / ton. We need to pay attention to the impact of the development of Sino-US contradictions on macro investment sentiment, as well as the impact of the future on the downstream exports of the tin industry.

On the spot side, the price at the beginning of the week was lower than that at the end of last week, but due to the good deal last Thursday, downstream manufacturers still have some inventory, so the market transaction is general, the subsequent two-day spot prices rise, downstream buying interest is cold, rigid demand procurement. Traders are less willing to accept goods because they are worried that it is difficult to ship goods because of poor downstream demand and futures prices continue to rise. Spot prices fell on Thursday, with manufacturers restocking at bargains and traders selling inventories. As prices rebounded on Friday, and on weekends, the market was cold. In terms of liter discount, this week's spot on the Shanghai tin 2009 contract Yunxi and small card discount generally rose first and then suppressed, Yunzi basically returned to the vicinity of Pingshui, and the small brand discount expanded. Before this Thursday, due to the downward shift of the center of gravity of the market, the center of gravity of the discount rose at the beginning of the week. The price of tin in Shanghai on Friday is higher than that of last Friday, so the center of gravity of the discount on Friday is lower than that of last Friday.

 

Nickel: Renni opened at US $13150 / ton this week, and its center of gravity rose gradually along the 20-day moving average. During the week, due to the continuous news of the conflict in Sino-US relations, it never fell below the mid-track support level of the Boll line of US $13000 / ton. Rennick fell back after surging twice to around $13600 a tonne this week. During this period, it reached as high as 13705 US dollars / ton, which is closer to last week's high of 13730 US dollars / ton. Compared with other base metals, the fundamentals of the nickel market are bearish, but under loose monetary policy, inflation expectations make it easy for the nickel market to rise and fall. Lunni is expected to continue to test the upper resistance on the basis of shock consolidation above $13100 / ton next week.

Shanghai Nickel opened at 106390 yuan / ton this week, and the trend in the first half of the week was mainly around the 20-day moving average of 105400 yuan / ton. during this period, the short-selling pressure on the short-selling pressure was above the 5 / 10 moving average of 106000 yuan / ton. After entering Wednesday, Shanghai Nickel finally stood above the 10-day moving average of 107200 yuan / ton, driven by the strength of the domestic stock market. However, as the macro news dominated the trend of the nickel market: on the afternoon of the 22nd, the news came out that the US side asked the Chinese side to close the Chinese Consulate General in Houston, causing the Shanghai Nickel Nickel Night Market to retreat near 105000 yuan / ton. However, Tesla's remarks on the next day calling on nickel mines to increase production reversed the situation. After the outer disk strengthened, Shanghai Nickel continued to rise and reached 109190 yuan / ton, the highest point of the week. But the boost from the news did not translate into long capital inflows, sparking risk aversion on Friday after China suspended operations at the US consulate in Chengdu. As a result, Lunni gave up the increase and finally closed at 107620 yuan / ton. A weekly increase of 1300 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.22%. At present, the fundamentals of nickel in Shanghai are empty, the performance of first-line demand for pure nickel is still not satisfactory, and the performance of nickel pig iron and stainless steel is only balanced in the short term after the rise in nickel prices. In the absence of fundamental support, the trend of Shanghai Nickel is still more affected by macro sentiment, and the short-term shock pattern has not changed. It is expected that next week, it will still rely on the support of the middle rail of the Boll line at the bottom of 105000 yuan / ton. The target is the upper 110000 pressure level to run in a concussion trend.

Spot aspect, the weekly average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel is 105940 yuan / ton, the weekly average price of Jinchuan nickel is 106390 yuan / ton, and the average price of Russian nickel is 105570 yuan / ton. Due to the ups and downs of nickel futures affected by the news this week, the spot trading volume is only OK on Monday and Thursday, and the other days are slightly lighter. Although the spot is still quoted for the Shanghai nickel 2008 contract, the discount has changed greatly compared with last week. Russian nickel is in short supply due to the hesitation of the holder, and the Russian nickel discount has narrowed from the discount of 500yuan / ton last week to 200yuan / ton. Jinchuan nickel, due to the appropriate price adjustment by manufacturers, reduced the supply of low-cost goods in the superposition field, so the rising water gradually rose to 500-600 yuan / ton. It is expected that downstream, the holders will all transfer to Shanghai Nickel 2009 contract quotations, Russo Nickel 09 contract is expected to be quoted between 400 yuan / ton and 300 yuan / ton; Jinchuan Nickel 09 contract is reported to rise between 300,400 yuan / ton.

 

 

 

 

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