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Review on spot Trading Day of SMM Base Metals on July 24th
Jul 24,2020 18:43CST
Review on spot Trading Day of SMM Base Metals on July 24th
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Copper: today, Apanlon Copper opened at US $6486.5 / tonne. After a short period of consolidation, it turned to a concussive downward trend, exploring an intraday low of US $6366 / tonne and then rebounding to a low of about US $53 / tonne. But bears once again pushed down the price of copper by $6370 a tonne. In the European market, Lunchen copper fluctuated upwards, closing at 6429.5 US dollars / ton, down 76.50 US dollars / ton, or 1.18%. Today, Lun Copper fell mainly due to the continuous fermentation of problems in Sino-US relations, and the news of China's counter-measures at noon led to a deepening risk aversion among investors and led to a sharp drop in copper prices. Later, the PMI index of European countries was higher than the previous value, confirming that the economy continued to recover, supporting the bottom rebound of copper prices and recovering some of the intraday losses. Today, Lun copper negative, KDJ opening down expansion, the upper pressure 5, 10-day moving average. In the evening, pay attention to the initial PMI data of Markit manufacturing in the United States in July to test whether Lunchong can hold the $6400 mark.

Today, the main force of Shanghai copper opened at 52080 yuan / ton in the morning. after the opening, the copper price of bulls fell slightly, and the center of gravity was arranged horizontally around 51990 yuan / ton. then the copper price fluctuated down to 51670 yuan / ton, and then rebounded upwards. the center of gravity rose about 140yuan / ton, and closed at 51770 yuan / ton in midday trading. Opening in the afternoon, the short forces entered the market and fell rapidly, accompanied by the concussion of copper prices in long positions, with a daily low of 51060 yuan / ton. At this time, the air flat more into, so that the disk temporarily out of the low upstream to 51540 yuan / ton. At the end of the day, the copper price fell again in the long part of the market, and finally closed at 51220 yuan / ton, down 520 yuan / ton, or 1.01%. During the day, 09 contracts reduced positions by 4458 to 113000, mainly by long positions, while trading volume increased by 27000 to 199000. 08 during the contract day, positions were reduced by 2633 to 72000, mainly by long positions, while trading volume increased by 1000 to 73000. Today, the decline of copper in Shanghai is mainly due to the cold macro mood. Sino-US relations have further escalated due to the closure of the consulate. Today, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs informed the US Consulate General in Chengdu to close, and relations between the two countries fell to the lowest level in 40 years. The contradiction between China and the United States continues to intensify and hit the market optimism, and the market risk appetite is damaged to put pressure on the copper price. Today, copper in Shanghai closed in the negative, giving up the gains of the previous three days. The KDJ opening continued to expand downward, and the upper pressure averages for 5 days and 10 days. Wait for the outer disk guide at night to test whether Shanghai Copper can hold the 51000 mark.

Today, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai quoted a price of 20 to 90 yuan per ton for that month's contract, 51820 yuan / ton to 51980 yuan / ton for Pingshui copper, and 51870 yuan / ton to 52020 yuan / ton for Shengshui copper. Shanghai copper pressure 52000 yuan / ton shock finishing. The morning market holder continued yesterday's quotation of Pingshui copper 40 yuan 50 yuan / ton good copper water 90 won 100 yuan / ton, but the deal was difficult. Today Friday, the monthly long order is coming to an end, and the holder has a strong willingness to cash, so he has no choice but to take the initiative to lower the quotation. Good copper is lowered to 70 yuan 80 yuan / ton, and the flat copper quotation is mostly 30 yuan / ton, but the buyer's intention is even lower. After a long confrontation between supply and demand, Pingshui copper raised 20 yuan / ton so that the transaction has been slightly improved, and the quotation of wet-process copper has been slightly lowered, from 50-40 yuan / ton to 70 yuan / ton, and some of the low-end difference of wet-process copper can be as low as 100 yuan. The willingness to receive goods downstream is low, and the actual consumption is weak. Shanghai social inventory continued to increase this week, making it difficult for holders to expect rising water to enter the end of next month, superimposed disk rebound brought about a wait-and-see stop downstream, the off-season effect is becoming more and more obvious. In the afternoon, due to the escalation of contradictions between China and the United States, the commodity and A-share markets fell sharply across the board, and Shanghai copper once fell below 51200 yuan / ton. the closing of low short positions made it rise slightly but blocked at 51500 yuan / tonne. The holder pulled up the water under the sharp fall of the market, leveling water copper rose 40 RMB60 / ton, good copper 90Mui 110 yuan / ton, the transaction price fell to 51300 RMB51550 / ton, market panic soared, few buyers responded.

Aluminum: Lomalco opened at US $1706 / ton this morning. In Asia, the base metal turned green and declined due to the escalation of conflicts between China and the United States. Lunal went all the way down, and the center of gravity of the K-line fell below the 5-day moving average for 15 minutes. Lun Aluminum was quoted at US $1689 per ton as of 15:00. In European session, euro zone PMI data showed some improvement, market sentiment moderated, Roon aluminum prices ushered in a slight rebound, and at around 16:00 in the afternoon a high of $1699 / ton, $1700 became a significant intraday pressure level blocked significantly, as of 17:22, Roentale reported $1691 / ton, 15-minute K line temporarily closed a long overcast line. The daily K temporarily closed in the overcast, the center of gravity approached the 5-day moving average, and the daily positions were mainly increased by short positions. Affected by the overall macro market sentiment, LME metal futures fell generally, and Lun aluminum is expected to run under pressure at night.

Shanghai Aluminum 2008 contract opened at 14495 yuan / ton in the morning, opening long positions and leaving mainly, aluminum prices all the way down, falling to 14390 yuan / ton at about 10:10 in the afternoon. At noon, some short positions made a profit and left the market, while aluminum prices were slightly arranged horizontally. Within an hour in the afternoon, mainly long positions left, aluminum futures fell and recorded an intraday low of 14305 yuan / ton at about 13:55. After that, the short positions made a profit, and the aluminum price rebounded. A small Yin line was recorded at the end of the day, and the closing price was 14405 yuan / ton. 08 contract day position decreased by 5886 to 103697 hands, the Shanghai Aluminum Index position decreased by 2797 to 376550 hands, the daily K closed at the cross star, the center of gravity broke through the 10-day moving average, there was a certain amount of reduction in long and short positions during the day, with a large amplitude. Recent tensions between China and the United States have escalated, there is a slight lack of short confidence, commodities and financial markets have been affected, Shanghai aluminum night market may usher in a further correction, the future need to continue to pay attention to the changes in the contradiction between China and the United States. From a fundamental point of view, there is no obvious accumulation of social inventory, downstream demand is OK, the current spot price-driven futures price logic remains unchanged, short-term aluminum prices are still supported. The month-changing time of the main force is approaching, so we need to pay close attention to the change of the price difference between far and near months.

Aluminum futures fluctuated in the range after the pre-afternoon shock fell. The spot price of aluminum ingots in Wuxi area is between 14540 and 14560 yuan / ton, while the price in Shanghai is between 14520 and 14540 yuan / ton. The spot price is 10 yuan / ton lower than yesterday, and the spot water price is 120 yuan / ton. Compared with yesterday, the spot water price is slightly lower than yesterday, and the price in Hangzhou area is between 14540 and 14560 yuan / ton. Today's market supply is relatively relaxed, brand performance is relatively single, more Tianshan hope and Jiarun and other brands, holders actively ship goods, middlemen are generally willing to receive goods, the two sides can hardly say good trading. A large family buys normally today, and the quantity of goods received in East China is less than 10,000 tons. Downstream today's normal procurement, although close to Friday, but the enthusiasm of stock preparation is obviously less than expected. The overall transaction in East China is mediocre today. In the afternoon, aluminum first suppressed and then rose, and the price quoted by the holder was around 14480 yuan / ton, and the rising water to the market was about 140yuan / ton. due to the large volatility of aluminum, traders had a strong wait-and-see attitude and the actual transaction was rare.

Lead: during the day, Lun lead opened at US $1829 / tonne. In Asian time, Lun lead fluctuated downwards due to the general decline of basic metals in the outer disk, reaching an intraday low of US $1808 / ton. Entering the European session, the decline of the US dollar index boosted the rise of outer disk metals, followed by a rise in Lun lead, which rose again to the 20-day moving average and adjusted horizontally above the daily moving average. As of 1715, it was temporarily reported at US $1820.5 / ton, down US $8 / ton, or 0.44%. Lun lead temporarily long shadow, the upper pressure 5-day moving average, the bottom is supported by the 20-day moving average, while today's LME lead inventory rose continuously on Thursday, increasing 10025 tons to 107600 tons, macro-level contradictions between China and the United States are increasingly fierce, may boost short sentiment, night need to pay attention to the support strength of the 20-day moving average.

During the day, the 2009 contract for Shanghai lead opened at 15000 yuan / ton. In early trading, Shanghai lead fluctuated horizontally in the range of 15000 yuan / ton along the intraday moving average. In the afternoon, basic metals fell, Shanghai lead fell to an intraday low of 14800 yuan / ton, short positions were reduced, and Shanghai lead rebounded above the intraday moving average, closing at 14975 yuan / ton, up 125yuan / ton, or 0.84%. The position increased by 433 to 23087, and the trading volume increased by 9685 to 30476. Shanghai lead closed on the Changyang line, but the bears failed to break the 20-day moving average, and the bulls failed to explore the 10-day moving average again during the day, the long-short game was fierce, and trading was active. Fundamentally, there is a widespread shortage of supply in the north, which may boost lead prices and pay attention to whether Shanghai lead can stand on the 5-day moving average at night. It is expected that before the peak consumption season, Shanghai lead will still be supported by the 20-day moving average. Keep trying to break through the 10-day moving average.

Shanghai market Mulun lead 15045 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead 2008 contract rising water price 30 yuan / ton; Chihong lead 15195 yuan / ton (pre-sale), Shanghai lead 2008 contract rising water price 180 yuan / ton; Jiangsu and Zhejiang market Muleng, Wanyang, Yuteng lead 15045tel 15065 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead 2008 contract water price 30buy 50 yuan / ton; imported KZ lead 14955 million 14975 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead 2008 contract discount 60,540 yuan / ton. Lead futures continue to hover around Wanwu, the shipping intention of the holder is OK, the quotation is lowered, the downstream purchasing on demand, and the recycled lead discount is narrowed, and the trading activity of the bulk order market is improving.

Guangdong market Nanhua lead 14925 yuan / ton, flat water quotation for SMM1# lead price; Minshan, Henan province, 15000 yuan / ton, 75 yuan / ton for SMM1# lead price; Shuikoushan, Hunan, 14975 yuan / ton for SMM1# lead price: 50 yuan / ton (trader); Jiangtong 14945 yuan / ton, 20 yuan / ton for SMM1# lead price Yunnan small factory 14575 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 300 yuan / ton. The high price of lead fluctuates, the downstream routine purchases according to volume, the market trading is still good, and the source of bulk goods in refineries is less.

Zinc: during the day, Lun Zinc opened at 2236 US dollars / ton, Pan Chu Lun Zinc briefly arranged along the daily moving average, probing a high of 2243 US dollars / ton, then non-ferrous Zinc fell, Lun Zinc stepped down near 2205 US dollars / ton, the conflict between China and the United States escalated in the afternoon, the market risk aversion mood heightened, Lun Zinc dived downwards, probed down 2187.5 US dollars / ton, short positions stopped leaving the market, Lun Zinc repaired up and broke through the Daily moving average Line, and entered the European trading moment. Lun Zinc revised upwards, closing down 1.63% at US $2201.5 / t, or US $36.50 / t, as of 1600. Lun Zinc closed the negative column, falling below the 5 / 10 line support, against the background of overseas epidemic fermentation, the market is worried about the prospect of economic recovery, and the resurgence of the conflict between China and the United States has put pressure on risk appetite to bind Lunzhi. it may run around 2200 US dollars / ton at night.

During the day, the main 2009 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 18255 yuan / ton, many heads left the market at the beginning of the session, and the disk quickly slipped to the first line of 18250 yuan / ton. Disputes between China and the United States resumed in the afternoon, and non-ferrous universal fell. Zinc diving accelerated the downward trend after a brief consolidation of 17850 yuan / ton, and bottomed out after exploring the intraday low of 17740 yuan / ton. Recorded a V word reversal, the center of gravity was consolidated at 17910 yuan / ton, and finally closed up at 17910 yuan / ton, up 60 yuan / ton, or 0.34%. The trading volume increased to 233853 lots, and the position increased to 94872 lots. Zinc overcast attached to the long shadow line, upward test Bollinger Road on the track, below jump away from each long moving average support. Due to the escalation of the contradiction between China and the United States due to the consulate closure incident, the market risk aversion mood heats up, and the macro-negative zinc price is expected to have a strong performance in the evening. Pay attention to the macro news guidance.

The mainstream transaction of zinc in Shanghai is 18190mur18250 yuan / ton, Shuangyan 18260 yuan / ton, and the import transaction is 18180Mel 18240 yuan / ton. Shuangyan quoted water at 60mur70 yuan / ton in August, Shuangyan quoted water at 70mur80 yuan / ton in August, and imported water at 50Mel 60 yuan / ton in August. The mainstream transaction was 18120MUR 18180 yuan / ton. Zinc futures fell high, the morning market is mainly to pick up goods, domestic water is still up about 60 yuan / ton, transactions gradually increased, some traders tried to raise the quotation to about 70 cents 80 yuan / ton, there is also some transaction feedback, downstream every fall on demand to buy, the market transaction is better than yesterday.

The mainstream transaction of zinc in Guangdong was 18030mur18180 yuan / ton, and the quotation was concentrated on the price of 2009 contract in Shanghai. The discount on the Guangdong market was 70 yuan / ton, which was 10 yuan lower than that of the previous trading day, while the discount on the Guangdong market was 10 yuan lower than that of the previous trading day. In the first trading session, although the price is high, the overall price is still high, the shipping sentiment of the holder is high, and the quotation is relatively positive, while the downstream is mostly wait-and-see, and the market demand is general. Kylin, Mengzi, Huize and Tiefeng quoted prices for the Shanghai zinc contract in September. The second trading session, prices continue to fluctuate downward, downstream bargain slightly supplement weekend usage, individual holders slightly cherish the selling price, the market transaction is better than the first trading session. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize, Tiefeng quoted price for Shanghai zinc contract in September. The mainstream transactions of Kirin, Mengzi, Tiefeng and Huize were 18,030,18180 yuan / ton.

The price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai ordinary brands has widened from 20 yuan / ton to 40 yuan / ton from yesterday's 20 yuan / ton to 40 yuan / ton. The mainstream transaction of Ningbo has been traded at 18210 won per ton, while the average brand price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai has widened from around 2008 yuan per ton to 100 won 150 yuan per ton. Today, zinc prices have risen sharply, the supply of goods in Ningbo market is tight, and traders are willing to raise prices and are unwilling to ship goods at low prices. In the first trading session, Tiefeng reported a rise of 100 yuan per ton for the August contract, a positive price for the West Mine around 100 yuan per ton for the August contract, and Nanhua around 100 yuan per ton for the August contract. Huize reported around 150 yuan / ton for the August contract. Overall, zinc prices have risen sharply today, the willingness of downstream enterprises to buy has obviously weakened, and there are few transactions in the market.

The mainstream turnover of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 18260mur18350 yuan / ton, Zijin was traded at 18310mur18390 yuan / ton, Huludao was quoted at 19560 yuan / ton, zinc common to 2008 contract quoted rising water around 150yuan / ton to 180yuan / ton, Zijin to August contract quoted rising water around 210mur220yuan / ton, the Tianjin stock market compared with Shanghai stock market kept rising water around 110RMB / ton. Today, Shanghai zinc shot up and fell back, and the spot market maintained a rising discount price, and the price was relatively uniform. The ordinary brand Bering quoted a rise of 150 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, and Hongyi quoted a rise of 180 yuan per ton for the 08 contract. Chi Hong quoted a rise of 170 Mel 180 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, while the high-priced brand Zijin quoted a rise of 210 Muv 220 yuan per ton for the August contract, while Baiyin Bao quoted a rise of 180 yuan per ton for the 08 contract. Ha Zinc (including out of the warehouse) is quoted in the 08 contract for a rise of 70 RMB80 / ton. Today, zinc prices are rising and falling, and there is a shortage of spot liquidity in the Tianjin market, and traders are shipping at a rising price; downstream, they just need to purchase today. On the whole, today's deal is called yesterday's level. Zinc ingots traded at around 18130 / ton.

Tin: Lunxi electronic disk opened at US $17870 / ton this morning and fell to US $17760 / ton before noon. Affected by China's diplomatic reaction in the afternoon, Lunxi briefly swung after the jump, and fell after the opening of the European market. It rebounded after hitting the bottom. As of 1615, the latest price of Lunxi is 17620 US dollars / ton. The shadow line is shaded, and the lower shadow line is supported by the 5-day moving average. In the evening, we need to observe the further impact of Sino-US relations on US stocks and market investment sentiment, and the lower support is expected to be around the 10-day moving average of 17450 US dollars / ton.

Shanghai tin main 2009 contract opened at 141950 yuan / ton last night, the opening short left, Shanghai tin concussion uplink, and then Shanghai tin horizontal market shock finishing, the amplitude of the shock gradually reduced. It opened at 142500 yuan / ton in the morning, pulled up after opening slightly, and fluctuated at a high near 143300 yuan / ton, hitting an intraday high of 143500 yuan / ton before falling slightly in the afternoon. In the afternoon, affected by the news that China informed the United States to close the US Consulate General in Chengdu, the bulls fled the market, and the price of tin in Shanghai jumped to a daily low of 141450 yuan / ton. Then it rebounded, closing at 141840 yuan / ton, up 600 yuan, or 0.42%. 42232 hands were traded, 15622 positions were held, 8000 hands were reduced, showing a cross star. The five-day moving average support was received below the entity part of the k-line. It is expected that the lower support level of Shanghai tin is located at the 20-day moving average of 140700 yuan / ton, and the upper pressure level is around 143000 yuan / ton.

On the spot market, today's quotation is 141000muri 143500 yuan / ton. Compared with yesterday morning, the tin market in Shanghai has risen sharply by about 2000 yuan / ton, and the average net price has risen by 1250 yuan / ton. Spot prices are higher than yesterday, and a small amount downstream just needs to be purchased. The rising water has not reached the satisfactory price of the arbitrage merchants, the willingness of traders to receive goods is not high, and the overall trading atmosphere in the Shanghai-tin spot market is weak. Liter discount, the Shanghai tin 2009 contract Yunxi rise about 500yuan / ton, near Yunzi Pingshui, small brand discount about 2000 yuan / ton.

Nickel: the Lenny Asian market opened at US $13680 / ton today. Immediately after opening, it turned green and shook at the US $13630 / ton line. At noon, the Chinese side informed the US side to close the Consulate General in Chengdu. Renni fell continuously and fell below the US $13500 / ton line. In the afternoon, it even bottomed out to US $13310 / ton. Then in this position by the 20-day moving average support began to rebound adjustment. After entering the European trading session, Lenny gradually stabilized above 13500 US dollars / ton due to the better-than-expected manufacturing PMI in the euro zone in July and the continuous strengthening of US crude oil prices. As of 1812, Lunni closed temporarily at 13545 US dollars / ton, still down 140US dollars / ton, or 1.02%. In the evening, pay attention to the initial value of Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States in July to test whether Lenny can continue to recover the decline.

The main contract of Shanghai Nickel 2010 opened at 108480 yuan / ton today. After the opening, the bulls increased their positions slightly after a brief shock, but Shanghai Nickel was still under pressure and failed to break through the first line of 109000 yuan / ton. After Shanghai Nickel returned to 108500 yuan / ton first-line consolidation, in the second trading session of the morning market, under the offensive of bulls again and again, Shanghai Nickel probed as high as 109190 yuan / ton, the highest in the day. In the afternoon, stimulated by the news surface, Shanghai nickel jumped out of the air and opened low, and the bulls reduced their positions one after another. after the Shanghai nickel exploration fell 106290 yuan / ton, the temporary goods were supported by the 5 / 20 average line, and finally closed at 107620 yuan / ton after returning to the enterprise and rising steadily. It rose by 2320 yuan per ton, or 2.2%. The trading volume was 1066009 lots, and the position decreased by 15032 lots to 118735 lots. Tesla's call for nickel ore production yesterday stimulated a sharp rise in the outer disk, but after the rise in Shanghai nickel, the main position only increased by more than 5000 hands last night. Today, although the Shanghai nickel morning market continued to rise, rising to 109180 yuan / ton, but there are still no signs of a large number of capital inflows. At noon, the news that China had suspended the business activities of the US consulate in Chengdu immediately stimulated the risk aversion of nickel funds. As a result, the long and short positions were closed one after another, and Shanghai Nickel gave up more gains. At present, the fundamentals of the nickel market are still short, but under the loose monetary policy, inflation expectations make Shanghai nickel easy to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to judge the middle track of the Boll line of 105000 yuan / ton and the highest point of the year at 110000, while paying attention to the change of the main position and appropriate short-term operation.

Today, SMM1 Electrolytic Nickel is quoted at 107800 RMB108800 per ton. Shanghai nickel morning market lingered in 108000 yuan / ton above the high shock, curb spot trading, although continuous decline in the afternoon, but still wait and see downstream, trading is relatively light today. Half of the traders in the spot market have quoted prices for 2009 contracts, but the mainstream transactions are still reached after traders quoted prices for 2008 contracts. Today, Russo Nickel continues to narrow the discount due to the hesitation of shippers. The mainstream quotation ranges from 250 yuan / ton to 200 yuan / ton for Shanghai Nickel 2008 contract. The transaction situation is poor, but there are a small number of non-deliverable Russo Nickel 2008 contract sticking 300 yuan / ton, the deal is OK. Jinchuan Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 2008 contract reported a rise of about 500 yuan / ton, the transaction situation is slightly light. And nickel beans to Shanghai Nickel 09 contract quoted price of about 1000 yuan / ton.


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