SMM7 March 24: today, at the "2020 small Metal Industry Summit" held by SMM, Huang Di, senior analyst of SMM small Metals, brought a speech with the theme of "epidemic factors significantly affect antimony production in the third quarter waiting for the antimony market to be bright in the willow and dark flowers in the third quarter", mainly around the first half of 2020 antimony industry review and the antimony industry third quarter outlook.
Review of Antimony Industry in the first half of 2020
The situation of antimony industry in 2019-taking low bismuth antimony ingot as an example
The changes in the situation of the antimony industry in the first half of 2020 can be described as "four tight prospects", that is, the upstream raw materials are tight, the financial budget is tight, the downstream wallet is tight, and the boss has a tight brow. It is specifically reflected in the following five aspects:
The trend is ups and downs and the low position is difficult to break.
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The reduction in supply is not small.
SMM predicts that in 2020, the output of the small metal industry will hardly have a significant increase, and the output of some varieties will even decline significantly.
As many small metals are associated with basic metals, which are affected by the output of copper smelting and lead-zinc smelting enterprises, the supply of raw materials is also slightly affected, such as indium, gallium, bismuth and so on.
Due to the continuous role of environmental protection and the impact of raw material supply, many small factories have reduced production, stopped production or even eliminated. At present, most of the enterprises still in operation are relatively formal medium and large enterprises, so the output is not easy to shrink on a large scale due to environmental protection and other factors.
The rising cost forms the support.
Stagflation in demand and deterioration in exports
According to customs data: from January to June 2019, China exported about 19758 tons of antimony oxide; from January to June 2020, China exported about 18743 tons of antimony oxide; under the impact of the global epidemic, domestic antimony oxide exports fell by 5.13%, which is not too bad overall.
Antimony oxide exports and consumption-demand stagflation
High inventory brings pressure
SMM predicts that in 2020, how to speed up inventory digestion in the antimony industry will be an important factor affecting price trends.
Outlook for the third quarter of 2020 Antimony Bismuth Indium Gallium
Price situation of Antimony in the third quarter of 2009-more rising than falling over the past decade
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