SMM7 March 24: today, at the "2020 small Metal Industry Summit" hosted by SMM, Han, a senior analyst from Zhishui investment management and consulting team, brought a speech on the theme of "Gold may challenge historical highs and investment suggestions in the second half of 2020", which mainly focuses on the 2020 macro-monetary environment, 2020 price influencing factors, price analysis, investment strategy.
Macro monetary environment in 2020
United States:
Us GDP grew by 2.3 per cent in 2019, down from 2.9 per cent in 2018, mainly dragged down by the trade war.
The US economy is still performing best relative to other economies.
Influencing factors of uncertainty in 2020: epidemic situation, trade war.
IMF expects US GDP to grow by 2 per cent in 2020 and 1.7 per cent for the whole of 2021.
Euro zone:
Eurozone GDP grew by 1.2 per cent in 2019, down from 1.9 per cent in 2018.
The ECB is likely to cut interest rates or introduce other loose monetary policies in 2020.
The ECB expects eurozone GDP growth of 0.8 per cent in 2020, but 1.1 per cent at the end of last year.
The European Central Bank also lowered its economic growth forecast for the next two years to 1.3% in 2021, compared with an earlier forecast of 1.4%.
China:
China's GDP grew by 6.1% in 2019, down from 6.7% in 2018.
The epidemic may have some impact on the economy.
To stimulate the economy, IMF expects its GDP to grow by 6.0 per cent in 2020, and China's economy will continue to slow in 2021, with full-year GDP growth of 5.8 per cent.
Emerging economies:
IMF expects GDP in emerging markets and developing economies to grow by 4.4 per cent in 2020 and 4.6 per cent in 2021.
Influencing factors of price in 2020
The trend of the two traditional precious metals, gold and silver, is consistent in most cases. According to the statistics of nearly a decade, the correlation coefficient between them can reach 0.939.
The Fed's monetary policy is still the main line of price influence! Key points:
"whether the US economy continues to slow down
Grasp the rhythm of monetary policy
Geopolitics
Supply and demand of precious metals
Position and position of precious metals
Price analysis
The factors that affect precious metal prices in 2020 will focus on three major aspects: Fed monetary policy, euro zone monetary policy and geopolitics.
Combined with the combination of fundamentals and technical factors, it is expected that precious metal prices will rise first and then fluctuate widely in the second half of 2020. Precious metal prices are likely to continue to rise in the third quarter, while precious metal prices are likely to fluctuate widely or adjust slightly in the fourth quarter.
Next year, the bull market in precious metals is likely to end and return to wide volatility.
The upper pressure level of gold price in the second half of 2020 is around $1900 / oz and the lower low is around $1450 / oz.
In 2020, the upper pressure level of silver price is around $20.0 / oz, and the lower low is between $14.0 / oz.
The 2006 price range of Shanghai Bank is 3400 yuan / kg-4800 yuan / kg.
Hedging strategy
Precious metal prices are expected to rise after a pullback low and consolidation in 2020.
For precious metals and enterprises in the upper reaches of the lead and zinc industry chain. Enterprises with mines can not guarantee the price or buy a small amount of insurance, and enterprises that need to purchase raw materials for smelting and processing can build inventory by buying and preserving value.
For precious metals and the middle reaches of the lead and zinc industry chain as well as trading enterprises. You can avoid the risk of price fluctuations in the precious metal market by buying high and selling low to lock in buying and selling price profits.
For precious metals and downstream enterprises of lead and zinc industry chain. When the raw materials of the enterprise can not keep up in time or the enterprise has a priced sales order, we can buy a hedge at an appropriate price to avoid the loss caused by the price rise.
Medium-and long-term speculative traders can adopt the strategy of building positions on bargains, and medium-and short-term investors can trade according to the upper and lower pressure levels.
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