SMM7 March 24: the LME metal market is generally green this morning. As of 09:30, Lunni fell nearly 0.5%, Lunchu and Lunal fell nearly 0.4%, Lunzn Zinc fell nearly 0.2%, Lunxi was flat, Lunren lead rose nearly 0.1%. Domestically, Shanghai Nickel rose nearly 3.1%, Shanghai Zinc rose nearly 1.6%, Shanghai Tin rose nearly 1.3%, Shanghai Aluminum and Shanghai lead rose nearly 0.6%, and Shanghai Copper rose nearly 0.5%. In the domestic market, Shanghai Nickel rose nearly 3.1%, Shanghai Zinc rose nearly 1.6%, Shanghai Tin rose nearly 1.3%, Shanghai Aluminum and Shanghai lead rose nearly 0.6%, and Shanghai Copper rose nearly 0.5%. In terms of nickel, Tesla's CEO called on miners to produce more nickel, boosting market expectations for nickel for new energy vehicles. In addition, the recent fall in the dollar index has supported dollar-denominated outer disk metals. "if you mine nickel efficiently in an environmentally friendly way, Tesla will offer you a huge contract for a long time," he says. " At the same time, he said that Tesla's next automatic assembly plant will be set up in Austin, Texas.
In terms of aluminum, recent spot prices in Guangdong and Shanghai continue to hang upside down, and there is no sign of a return in the short term. At the beginning of this month, the spot circulation in East China gradually tightened. Since July 8, the price difference between Guangdong and Shanghai has changed from positive to negative. During this period, the maximum spot transaction price difference between Guangdong and Shanghai is close to 300 yuan per ton. After the aluminum delivery and exchange month, the price difference between the two places has narrowed somewhat, but it has not changed the situation that the spot price of aluminum ingots in East China is higher than that in South China. Yesterday, SMM announced that the weekly inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum is 6000 tons. In addition to a slight increase in inventory in Shanghai, there is still no obvious trend of inventory accumulation in other areas.
[SMM Analysis] the inventory ratio of aluminum ingots is on the low side and the spot price in Guangdong and Shanghai continues to hang upside down.
On the black side, the thread was slightly red, the hot coil fell slightly, stainless steel rose nearly 2.3%, coke rose nearly 0.6%, coking coal fell nearly 0.1%, iron ore fell nearly 1.7%, as of July 23, the national total inventory of building materials was 10.9298 million tons, month-on-month ratio + 1.8%, year-on-year + 28.1%. This year's precipitation seems to be more violent than in previous years, spread more widely, in the past half a month, almost all the areas along the Yangtze River have fallen, and the release of demand has been greatly restricted, so that the current thread inventory is still accumulating. In terms of hot coil, the total inventory of hot-rolled coil this week is 3.8553 million tons, with a month-on-month ratio of + 2.30% and + 12.78% compared with the same period last year. Total inventories continue to grow this week, but the growth rate has narrowed and the short-term disturbance to fundamentals is relatively limited.
[SMM thread] "water wall" block, accumulate libraries to speed up ing.
"[SMM Hot Volume] Hot Volume has been accumulating for 5 consecutive weeks, and it is difficult to stop the rising price momentum!
Crude oil fell nearly 0.1% in the previous period, while U.S. oil fell 2% on Thursday, as investors worried that Congress might not agree on an economic stimulus package amid signs that the fall in U.S. stock markets exacerbated the global economic slowdown. in addition, weak unemployment data and a surge in coronavirus cases in the United States have put pressure on oil prices and stock markets.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose nearly 1.2 per cent and Shanghai Silver rose nearly 1.4 per cent as the dollar weakened and hopes for more stimulus measures to revive the economy hit by the epidemic boosted the economy. and the increase in initial jobless claims in the United States last week raised concerns about a slowdown in the economic recovery.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
Brief comments on SMM:
Copper: last night, Lun Copper closed at US $6506 / ton, up 0.45%. Trading volume was 13000 lots, and short positions were reduced by 17 to 316000 lots. Shanghai Copper 2009 contract closed at 52230 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.50%, with a turnover of 77000 lots, and short positions were reduced by 1025 to 117000 lots. Copper prices maintained a volatile upward trend last night, but the rally was relatively slow, and there are still geopolitical concerns in the market, which need to be re-tested after shock consolidation. On the macro front, the head of the US New Crown Test said that the daily increase in the number of people in the United States may exceed 200000, and the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States increased unexpectedly last week, indicating that the prospects for economic recovery are in doubt, and US stocks fell to a one-week low yesterday. Affected by geopolitics and the epidemic, gold prices have risen well recently, approaching the 1900 mark yesterday, while crude oil fell under the influence of increased inventories. Taken together, although copper fundamentals are still good, there is some macro pressure on copper prices, which is expected to limit the recent rise in copper prices and wait for market sentiment to improve. On the spot side, when the market is relatively stable, the market quotation level is expected to be the same as yesterday. It is estimated that today Lun Copper 6450 USD6500 / ton, Shanghai Copper 54900 Rue 52200 / ton. It is expected that the spot water will rise to 100 yuan per ton today.
Aluminum: yesterday, the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum opened at 14375 yuan / ton in the morning, rose 100 yuan to 14480 yuan / ton at the start of trading, then vomited all the increases and fell back to below 14400 yuan / ton. Afternoon trading around 14400 yuan / ton first-line narrow band, closed at 14395 yuan / ton at the end of the day, trading volume was reduced to 73000 hands, position reduced to 110000 hands, and the daily line closed at Xiaoyang. The total position in Shanghai Aluminum Futures decreased to 379000 lots, and the trading volume decreased to 199000 lots. Last night, the main force of Shanghai Aluminum opened as low as 14415 yuan / ton, opened high to 14485 yuan / ton, then fell around 14430 yuan / ton, pulled up again after 22:00 and stood firm at the front line of 14500 US dollars / ton, and closed at 14500 yuan / ton at the end of the day. Inventory did not accumulate on Thursday, spot rising water fell slightly, the main force has not yet completed the shift, Shanghai Aluminum rose six consecutive, the futures price is relatively strong. It is estimated that the main operating range of Shanghai Aluminum today is 14400, 14800 yuan / ton.
Lead: overnight, Shanghai lead opened at 14840 yuan / ton. At the beginning of trading, Shanghai lead fluctuated upward along the daily average line, reaching a high of 15030 yuan / ton. Later, bulls made profits and gave up some of the gains. Shanghai lead finally reported an increase of 0.77% at 14980 yuan / ton. Shanghai lead generally fluctuated between the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average, stopping the decline and stabilizing. During the day, the bulls are concerned about whether they can continue to break through the resistance of the 10-day moving average above.
Zinc: overnight, the main 2009 contract of Shanghai Zinc opened at 17970 yuan / ton, which was driven by the outer disk at the beginning of the day, and the short-term zinc price was pulled up to 18180 yuan / ton. During this period, the plate slipped through the daily average line of 18125 yuan / ton, and the bulls entered the market at the end of the day. The center of gravity moved up to 18270 yuan / ton, and finally closed up at 18300 yuan / ton, up 450yuan / ton, or 2.52%. The trading volume reached 108210 hands, and the position increased by 7229 to 101687 hands. Overnight, Shanghai zinc received a bald big positive column, the daily K center of gravity moved upward, the lower 10-day line provided support, and the positive column of MACD index expanded. Driven by the upside of the outer disk, Shanghai Zinc is also strong. Under the expectation of the peak domestic consumption season, with the gradual landing of the terminal project of the infrastructure plate, the fundamental support is temporarily strong, promote the upside of Shanghai Zinc, and pay close attention to the development of Sino-US relations and overseas epidemic situation in the short term. The contract price of Shanghai Zinc 2009 is expected to operate in the range of 18000 won / t, and it is expected that domestic Shuangyan Zinc will rise 60 RMB70 / t in August contract.
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Nickel: overnight Shanghai Nickel closed at the Zhongyang column, the K column jumped above the averages, and the center of gravity was at the 108000 yuan / ton mark. Today, we are concerned about whether Shanghai Nickel can stand at the 108000 yuan / ton mark. Lunni opened at US $13080 / ton yesterday. After opening, the center of gravity of Lunni went down to US $13020 / t. It fluctuated around the center of gravity in a narrow range before and at noon. Stimulated by the above news surface in the afternoon, Lunni pulled up all the way, breaking above US $13500 / ton to US $13550 / ton, and the pressure slightly fell back to the position of US $13440 / ton. after the opening of Shanghai Nickel, Lunni went up again with Shanghai Nickel, probing up US $13700 / ton, and finally closed at US $13685 / ton. Compared with the previous trading day, the settlement price increased by US $605 / ton, or 4.63%. The trading volume was 13000 lots, and the position increased by 36 lots to 197000 lots. Lunni closed at Changyang column last night, K-column upward through the moving average pressure, probing 13700 US dollars / ton gate, today Lunni opened at 13680 US dollars / ton, pay attention to the pressure above the integer gate during the day.
Tin: yesterday's quotation is 139500 RMB142500 per ton. Compared with the morning before yesterday, the tin market in Shanghai fell by about 2000 yuan / ton, and the average net price fell by 1000 yuan / ton. Spot prices fell more sharply than yesterday, and buying interest in the lower reaches picked up somewhat. Futures fell, the price competitiveness of value-protected goods increased, and traders shipped better. The overall trading atmosphere in the Shanghai-tin spot market has warmed up compared with a few days ago. Liter discount, the Shanghai tin 2009 contract Yunxi rise about 1000 yuan / ton, near Yunzi Pingshui, small brand discount about 1500 yuan / ton. Today's forecast: Shanghai tin market rose about 2000 yuan / ton compared with yesterday morning, and it is expected that today's mainstream spot transaction price may be 140500 Mel 143500 yuan / ton.
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