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Review on spot Trading Day of SMM Base Metals on July 22nd
Jul 22,2020 18:27CST
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Source:SMM
Review on spot Trading Day of SMM Base Metals on July 22nd
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Copper: today, Apanlon copper opened higher at US $6505.5 / ton and reached US $6580 / ton at the beginning of the day. After Shanghai Copper opened, Lunchu continued to jump above the 6600 mark, exploring a daily high of US $6601.5 / tonne, but due to the attack from the high short positions, Lunchu fell back to US $6560.5 / tonne. Then Lun Copper rebounded slightly to $6589 / ton, but the short force continued to press down, and the market fell to $6557 / ton. During the European session, there was news that the US side asked the Chinese side to close the Consulate General in Houston, which led to further tensions between China and the United States, a sudden change in market sentiment, a straight fall in Lunbro, and a daily low of 6434.5 US dollars per ton. Then Lun copper bottomed out and closed at 6457.5 US dollars / ton, down 54.50 US dollars / ton, or 0.84%. At present, Lun copper is negative, and the opening of KDJ is dilated downward, but it is still supported by the 5-day and 10-day moving average. In the evening, focus on the investment sentiment caused by the contradictory performance of Sino-US relations, and whether Lunchu can recover the decline.

Today, the main force of Shanghai copper opened at 52490 yuan / ton in the morning. after the opening, the bulls entered the market to drive up the copper price to a daily high of 52830 yuan / ton, but then the short sellers increased their positions to suppress the copper price, and the long positions continued to fall to 52420 yuan / ton. In the second trading session, the center of gravity of Shanghai Copper was arranged horizontally around 52560 yuan / ton until the midday close. Shanghai copper opened smoothly in the afternoon, fluctuating in a narrow range around 52540 yuan / ton, and fell near the end of the day, and finally closed at 52410 yuan / ton, up 550yuan / ton, or 1.06%. During the day, the number of positions in 09 contracts increased by 6783 hands, mainly as long positions increased; trading volume increased by 7000 lots to 149000 hands. 08 contract day reduced positions by 7283 to 78000, mainly for short positions; trading volume decreased by 40, 000 to 91000. The low interest rate environment superimposed with the sustained stimulus plan kept the macro optimistic tone unchanged, the price of base metals rose sharply, and there was good news from the fundamentals. Chilean miner Antofagasta announced that copper production fell 8.4% month-on-month in the second quarter, adding to market concerns about tight copper supply and providing support for copper prices. Today, Shanghai copper closed, KDJ opening convergence, below still jump off multiple moving averages, technical point of view copper prices still have upward momentum. Wait for the outer disk guidelines in the evening to test whether the bulls can push again to support the 53000 yuan / ton pass in Shanghai Copper.

Today, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai is quoted as 20-120 yuan / ton for that month's contract, 52500 yuan / ton to 52630 yuan / ton for Pingshui copper, and 52560 yuan / ton to 52700 yuan / ton for copper in Shengshui. Overnight gold and silver crude oil rose sharply, leading the base metals to turn red across the board. Copper in Shanghai rebounded by 1.5% and rose by 52600 yuan / ton, an increase of about 700 yuan / ton. In the morning, the consignor quoted Pingshui copper for 50 RMB60 / ton, good copper 110Mel 130 yuan / ton, fear of heights rose again, and it was difficult to get an actual deal. The outflow of superimposed warehouse receipts increased the willingness of holders to exchange high positions. Some consignors tried to reduce prices to promote trading, and rising water opened the way of downward adjustment. Pingshui copper dropped directly to about 30 yuan / ton of rising water, and the inquiry improved, and the buying interest improved. It is difficult to quote a good copper shipment and adjust it to about 100 yuan / ton. Entering the second section of the trading stage, the overall transaction of the market is still weak and difficult to rise. Flat copper has actively dropped to 20 yuan / ton of rising water, and the long order is sold to pick up the goods, so that the rising water temporarily stabilizes, the room for good copper price reduction is limited, and the transaction price is maintained at 80,000,100 yuan / ton. there is a big difference in the quotation of wet-process copper. Some of the top bidders are always at a discount of 30 yuan per ton, while some of the low-end difference of wet-process copper can be as low as around 100 yuan. The average price of wet copper is passively dragged down by the discount of about 60 / ton. Copper prices have risen by more than 1,000 for two consecutive days, copper prices are high, the outflow of goods continues to increase, and the downstream is back to being afraid of high prices to stop and wait and see. Today, most of the market transactions are still long single traders, but under the strong market, the target psychological price may be even lower. Sellers are more concerned about high and fast cash. In the afternoon, the market was arranged horizontally, but the declining trend of spot rising water has stabilized, with Pingshui copper holding steady at 30 murals 40 yuan / ton, good copper rising water 80 murals 100 yuan / ton, and the transaction price is also running smoothly at 5253052700 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: Lomalco opened at $1685 a tonne this morning. In Asian trading, it opened 15 minutes higher by $11, recovering some of its late-night losses. Then Lun aluminum concussion uplink, as of 15: 00 Lun aluminum at 1699.5 U.S. dollars / ton. In European trading, Lun Aluminum ushered in a decline around 16:00, recording an intraday low of $1675 / ton, before finishing sideways around $1685 / ton. The daily K temporarily ends at a negative line, and the center of gravity is still above the 5-day moving average. Affected by the escalation of tensions between China and the United States today, the current uncertainty of the trend of Lun Aluminum has increased, and the shock amplitude of the price of Lun Aluminum has expanded, mainly by long positions and risk aversion within the day. There is a downside risk in the price of Lun aluminum at night, so we should continue to pay attention to the impact of macro negative factors.

The Shanghai Aluminum 2008 contract opened at 14400 yuan / ton in the morning, and the aluminum price during the 45-minute long reduction period fell slightly to an intraday low of 14350 yuan / ton, followed by a correction in aluminum prices, and recorded an intraday high of 14450 yuan / ton at about 11:15 in the afternoon. Afternoon aluminum prices are mainly horizontal finishing, closing at 14390 yuan / ton at the end of the day. 08 contract day position decreased by 3935 to 113228 hands, the Shanghai Aluminum Index position decreased by 12117 to 386891 hands, the daily K closed at a small positive line, an increase of 1.02%, the center of gravity broke through the 10-day moving average, the day is still dominated by short positions. Overall trend, intra-day aluminum prices continue the trend of narrow horizontal market volatility after yesterday's sharp rise. Fundamentals, the current electrolytic aluminum downstream demand is OK, social inventory rebounded slightly, but warehouse receipt inventory is still low. Overall, electrolytic aluminum prices are still supported by fundamentals, and aluminum prices are expected to maintain a stable trend in the short term in the future. Macro aspect: the tension between China and the United States has escalated today, so we need to pay attention to the impact of this incident on the mood of the capital market, and guard against the sharp fluctuations in the capital market caused by changes in sentiment in the capital market.

Aluminum will be suppressed and then raised before noon. Spot prices of aluminum ingots in Wuxi and Shanghai in the morning were between 14490 Mel 14510 yuan / ton, and in the later period of 10:30 aluminum uplink, the market price began to concentrate at 14520 Mel 14540 yuan / ton, which was up 110yuan / ton compared to yesterday's absolute price, and the spot water was around 140Mor 160 / ton, which was about 60 yuan / ton lower than yesterday's, and the price in Hangzhou area was 14530Mel 14550 yuan / ton. Today, the supply of goods in the market is relatively relaxed, various domestic brands and imported aluminum are more abundant, the holder continues to actively ship the goods, the willingness to raise the price is obviously less than the previous period, the middleman can receive the goods, and the trading between the two sides is better. After the rise of aluminum prices in the later stage, the heat of the transaction between the two sides dropped obviously, and there were many inquiries, but the actual transaction was not as good as in the morning. A large family announced part of the procurement plan today, but it is more difficult to purchase after the market price rises in the later stage. Today, the downstream is mainly purchasing on demand, and traders feedback that there is not much bright spot on the downstream delivery. The overall transaction in East China is mediocre today. The afternoon aluminum maintenance range fluctuated, with the price quoted by the holder between 14510 Mel 14530 yuan / ton and the rising water on the opposite side rising between 80 Mel 100 yuan / tonne, with only a small number of transactions between traders and few downstream.

Lead: within a day, lead is opened at US $1843 / ton. In the Asian session, trading was light, Lun lead rose first and then suppressed with Shanghai lead, and then fell back below the daily moving average after exploring the intraday high of $1851.5 / ton, and adjusted horizontally. Entering the European session, affected by the sharp rise in the dollar index, basic metals fell, and lun lead also fell all the way, reaching an intraday low of 1809 US dollars / tonne. As of 1715 00, it temporarily closed at 1811 US dollars / ton, up 34 US dollars / tonne, or 1.84 per cent. Lun lead interim report long Yin line, k line entity pressure 10-day moving average, all the way through the 5-day moving average to get support near the 20-day moving average, and the KDJ index is exposed downwards again. Today, LME lead stocks once again increased sharply by 12850 tons to 86925 tons, coupled with the deepening contradictions in Sino-US relations, macro sentiment from long to short, at night need to pay attention to whether the bulls can maintain the 20-day moving average, bears may drag Leilun lead down.

During the day, the 2009 contract for Shanghai lead opened at 15085 yuan / ton. In early trading, basic metals rose, and Shanghai lead rose, falling below the daily moving average after reaching an intraday high of 15215 yuan / ton. in the afternoon, supported by 15015 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead fluctuated horizontally along the intraday moving average. in late trading, affected by the general decline in basic metals, it fell to a daily low of 14950 yuan / ton, supported by a slight recovery in the 5-day moving average, closing at 14980 yuan / ton, down 95 yuan / ton, down 0.63%, and its position increased by 1759 to 21725 hands. Trading volume increased by 7651 lots to 20571 lots. Shanghai lead concussion today, reported to close on the film, k-line entity is still trapped in the 5-day moving average and 10-day moving average, bulls in the high profit reduction positions, risk aversion mood is obvious. In terms of fundamentals, Shanghai lead is supported by the cost of recycled lead, and downstream procurement demand has picked up somewhat, but after all, the peak consumption season has not arrived, and lead prices continue to rise. It is necessary to pay attention to whether Shanghai lead can stand on the 10-day moving average at night. It is expected that in the short term, Shanghai lead will mainly take the 10-day moving average and 5-day moving average as the interval shock adjustment, and better consumption expectations may prompt bulls to explore the first line of 15200 yuan / ton.

Shanghai market Mulun lead 15120 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton price for Shanghai lead 2008 contract; 15120 yuan / ton for Jiangsu and Zhejiang market, Yuteng, Southern lead 15120 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton price for Shanghai lead 2008 contract; imported KZ lead 15020 color 15040 yuan / ton, discount 50 million 30 yuan / ton for Shanghai lead 2008 contract. Due to the decline of lead prices and the narrowing of the recycled lead discount, the downstream lead just needs to be returned to the primary lead, and the market transaction activity is OK.

Guangdong market Nanhua lead 15050 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead quotation; Henan Jinli, Wanyang 155050 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 20 yuan / ton to Pingshui (trader); Hunan Shuikoushan 15100 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead up 50 yuan / ton (trader); Jiang Copper 15070 yuan / ton, the average lead price of SMM1# 20 yuan / ton. Yunnan small factory 14750 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 300 yuan / ton. Lead prices rebounded low, downstream on-demand procurement, refinery bulk supply is relatively small.

Zinc: Lun Zinc opens at 2244 US dollars / ton, and Lun Zinc runs around the daily average line near the opening price, with an up and down space of about 20 US dollars / ton. near the European trading session, conflicts in Sino-US relations intensified, causing the dollar to soar. Risk aversion heats up and metals generally fall, Lunzinc accelerates its decline, breaking US $2200, hitting a low of US $2185 and then recording a slight low. As of 1730, Lunzin is at US $2198 per ton. Down $49 / ton, or 2.16%. Lun Zinc received Yin, basically gave up the overnight increase, accompanied by panic suppression of macro emotions, and paid attention to the long-empty performance caused by the fermentation of Sino-US conflicts.

During the day, the main 2009 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 18225 yuan / ton. at the beginning of the session, zinc rose and fell, and the pressurized daily average line was arranged and operated around 18100 yuan / ton. near the close, stock index futures fell across the board, zinc fell under pressure, and the low hit 17920 yuan / ton. accompanied by part of the funds to stop earnings to make up for part of the decline. The final closing price rose to 18025 yuan / ton, up 185yuan / ton, or 1.04%. The trading volume reached 216000 lots, and the position increased by 8103 to 89000 lots. Zinc in the future closed on the positive pillar, mainly driven by capital inflows, zinc smelting production rebounded is not smooth, domestic consumption is more resilient market sentiment is more optimistic, the lower 5, 10-day moving average adhesion support is expected to be effective.

The mainstream transaction of zinc in Shanghai is 18170mur18280 yuan / ton, Shuangyan is 18180mur18280 / ton, and the import transaction is 18140Muth18260 yuan: ton, the average price is 90 yuan / ton in August, 100 yuan / ton in August; Shuangyan is quoted in August 100 RMB110 / ton, and the import price is 60RMB70 / ton in August. The mainstream transaction was 18,100 RMB 18200 yuan per ton. Zinc futures are higher, market shipments are mainly, long orders are nearing the end, traders' demand has declined, and downstream fear of heights only needs procurement, the overall demand has cooled, and the domestic quotation has been lowered from about 100 yuan / ton to about 90 yuan / ton. the overall transaction is flat.

The mainstream transaction of Ningbo Gao was at 18130mur18230 yuan / ton, and the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai ordinary brand was changed from 10 yuan / ton to near Pingshui from yesterday's discount of 10 yuan / ton. The price of ordinary brand in Ningbo was raised by 80 to 130 yuan / ton to 2008 yuan / ton in the contract of ordinary brand in Ningbo. Today, zinc prices have risen again, refineries have actively shipped goods, and the market has ample supply. In the first trading session, Tiefeng Bao is near 100 yuan / ton for August contract, West Mining News is about 80 yuan / ton for August contract, Kirin News is near 130 yuan / ton for August contract, and Huize News is around 180 yuan / ton for August contract, basically maintaining yesterday's rising water, but due to today's market rally, downstream purchasing willingness is getting worse.?. There is little change in the rising water in the follow-up market, and the turnover is weaker than that of yesterday.

The mainstream transaction of zinc in Guangdong Province was 18,8280 yuan / ton in 18080mur. the price was concentrated on a price increase of 1040 yuan / ton in the 2009 contract for Shanghai zinc, and the discount on the Guangdong stock market was 90 yuan / ton lower than that of the previous trading day, which was 20 yuan lower than that of the previous trading day. In the first trading session, futures prices rose and fell back, and the overall center of gravity rose again to above 18000 yuan, while the lower reaches were mostly wait-and-see at the high price. The holder initially tried to push up the price and shipped the goods, but later saw the unsmooth quotation loosened. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize, Tiefeng quoted water for the Shanghai zinc contract in September up 15,540 yuan / ton. In the second trading session, the overall procurement demand downstream is still limited, in the lack of downstream demand support, individual holders continue to lower prices, but on the whole, if the rising water is too low, the holders are reluctant to sell, and the market transaction is relatively deadlocked. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize, Tiefeng quoted price for Shanghai zinc contract in September, 10Lue 20 yuan / ton. The mainstream transaction of Kirin, Mengzi and Huize was 18,280 yuan / ton.

The mainstream turnover of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 18210 RMB18290 / ton, Zijin was traded at 18280 Mel 18310 / ton, Huludao was quoted at 19520 yuan / ton, Zinc was generally quoted around RMB 130 / ton to RMB 180 / ton in the contract of 2008, and Zijin was quoted around RMB20000 / ton in the August contract, and the price of water in Tianjin was raised from 50 yuan / ton to 60 yuan / ton in comparison with Shanghai stock market. Today, the price of zinc in Shanghai has gone up and down, and the spot market has maintained the price of rising water, and the price is more divergent. The ordinary brand Bering News has quoted a rise of 150 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, and Hong has quoted a rise of 160 million yuan per ton for the 08 contract. Chi Hong quoted a rise of 130 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, while the high-priced brand Zijin quoted a rise of 200 yuan per ton for the August contract, while Baiyin quoted a rise of 160 yuan per ton for the 08 contract. Ha zinc (including out of the warehouse) is quoted as a rise of 80 yuan / ton for the 08 contract. Zinc prices rose and fell today, the first period of time traders maintained yesterday's quotation, but because today's smelter shipments are less, superimposed some traders have no goods, the spot market price shipments; downstream, today's spot absolute price upward range is larger, downstream enterprises wait and see mainly, the willingness to receive goods is weaker than yesterday. On the whole, today's turnover is light. Zinc ingots were sold at around 18,120,8150 yuan per ton of zinc ingots.

Tin: Lunxi electronic trading opened at US $17410 / tonne, rose step by step to US $14685 / tonne in the morning, then swung sideways, rose slightly in the afternoon and then fell back. After the opening of the European market, Lunxi pulled all the way up to 147856 US dollars per tonne. After reaching its peak, affected by the decline in Sino-US relations, Lunxi fluctuated all the way downward. as of 1630, the latest price of Lunxi was 17680 US dollars / ton, which was positive, and the body was supported by the 5-day moving average. Due to the escalation of the contradiction between China and the United States, it is necessary to be cautious in avoiding the risk of leaving the market. Although Lunxi is relatively stronger than other outer plate metals, it is expected that it will be difficult to rise again in the short term, or there will be some decline in the general environment. The lower support level is expected to be near the 5-day moving average of 17400 US dollars / ton.

The main 2009 contract of Shanghai tin opened at 142170 yuan / ton last night. After opening, it rose slightly and then fluctuated down, and opened at 142010 yuan / ton in the morning. After opening, the short positions left Shanghai tin market to pull up slightly, then the bulls entered the market, and Shanghai tin concussion rose. In the afternoon, it hit the intraday high of 143770 yuan / ton. After reaching the peak, it pulled back and closed at 142790 yuan / ton, up 1330 yuan / ton, or 0.94%. The trading volume was 40806 lots, and the position volume was 26738 lots, a decrease of 884%. It's a positive line. It is necessary to guard against the impact of Sino-US relations on the market. In the short term, bulls' risk aversion and pessimistic expectations on the macro-economy may cause greater pressure on the tin in Shanghai. The upper pressure level is expected to be around 144000 yuan / ton. The lower support level is around 141500 yuan / ton, the 10-day moving average.

On the spot market, today's quotation is 140500 RMB143500 per ton. The tin market in Shanghai is up about 1500 yuan / ton compared with yesterday morning, and the average net price is up 1000 yuan / ton. Spot prices are higher than yesterday, and the willingness to receive goods downstream is low. On the one hand, the shipment of traders is not smooth, on the other hand, due to the low downstream demand, traders have little willingness to receive the goods. The overall Shanghai-tin spot trading atmosphere is cold. Liter discount, on the Shanghai tin 2009 contract set Yunxi 500 Mel 1000 yuan / ton, near Yun Zi Pingshui, small brand discount 2000 yuan / ton nearby.

Nickel: the Asian market opened at US $13450 / tonne today, fluctuating around the US $13480 / tonne line after opening, followed by a brief rise in Shanghai Nickel to an intraday high of US $13600 / tonne. After being under pressure, it fell back and fluctuated at the first line of 13490 US dollars / ton. At noon, the center of gravity of Lunni briefly rose above the $13500 / ton line, but was soon pushed down to $13400 / ton again. After entering the European trading session, due to the news of tense Sino-US relations, the market risk aversion increased, so Lunni fell back continuously, as low as 13180 US dollars / ton. Lunni then stopped falling on the 20-day moving average and closed temporarily at 13270 US dollars / ton at 1815. Fell 105 US dollars per ton, or 0.79%, giving up most of yesterday's gains, recording only Yang Cross Star. At night, we will pay attention to the investment panic caused by the development of the contradiction between China and the United States, and test whether the confidence of Lenny bulls can be restored.

The main contract of Shanghai Nickel 2010 opened high at 107700 yuan / ton in daily trading today. After the opening, bulls took advantage of the overnight commodity rally to push up nickel prices, and Shanghai Nickel quickly reached 108420 yuan / ton. Then the bears entered the market to sell pressure, and the bulls also chose to stop the profit and close the position, so Shanghai nickel fell back to the daily average line of 107400 yuan / ton first-line narrow earthquake until the end of the morning market. Open in the afternoon, short positions test, Shanghai Nickel briefly fell 10-day moving average of 107000 yuan / ton after the first line of support to rise back to 107500 yuan / ton. But then, the short selling pressure continued unabated, the lack of confidence in the bulls gradually left the market, and Shanghai Nickel turned around again and finally closed at 106640 yuan / ton. Shanghai Nickel rose 640 yuan / ton today, or 0.6%, trading volume of 797671 lots, position reduced 6906 hands to 124724 hands, today recorded a long shadow small positive pillar, giving up most of last night's increase. It is expected that Shanghai Nickel will still be supported by the 20-day moving average in the near future, constantly testing the upper pressure as the adjustment direction. Sino-US relations have been fragile in recent days. Wait for the direction of the outer disk at night and be cautious about the price fluctuations brought about by macro sentiment.

Today, SMM1 Electrolytic Nickel is quoted at 106600 RMB107700 per ton. Last night, Shanghai nickel rose sharply with crude oil precious metals prices, nickel 08 contract rose after falling 107000 yuan / ton first line shock adjustment, continued to weaken in the afternoon. Spot aspect, downstream fear of high wait-and-see, only a small number of traders in the market in the low-price supply, trading atmosphere back to light. Russo Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 2008 contract quoted 450 yuan / ton to 400 yuan / ton, the transaction is mostly between traders. Jinchuan Nickel 2008 contract against Shanghai Nickel rose 400,000,000 yuan / ton, with few transactions in the day. Jinchuan ex-factory price quoted 107300 yuan / ton, although Shanghai has a supply for sale, but there is no obvious advantage over the market price, long Association customers are generally willing to receive goods. As for nickel beans, the price is 1200 yuan per ton, and the inquiry and transaction are also poor.

 

 

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