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[SMM comment] optimistic market atmosphere non-ferrous metals return to strong precious metals across the board Shanghai silver rose nearly 8%
Jul 22,2020 09:50CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM7 March 22: most of the LME metal market is red this morning. As of 09:35 in the morning, Lunni rose nearly 0.8%, Lunxi Copper and Lunxi Copper rose nearly 0.3%, Lun lead rose nearly 0.1%, Lun Zinc fell nearly 0.1%, Lun Aluminum fell nearly 0.3%. Domestically, Shanghai zinc rose nearly 1.7%, Shanghai Copper and Shanghai Nickel rose nearly 1.5%, Shanghai lead rose nearly 1.3%, Shanghai Aluminum rose nearly 1%, and Shanghai Tin rose nearly 0.8%. The domestic side, Shanghai Zinc rose nearly 1.7%, Shanghai Copper and Shanghai Nickel rose nearly 1.5%, Shanghai lead rose nearly 1.3%, Shanghai Aluminum rose nearly 1%, and Shanghai Tin rose nearly 0.8%. Progress in vaccine research, a rescue package in Europe and a warmer macro atmosphere, while the dollar index hit a more than four-month low below 95, also boosted the metal market. Recently, copper stocks in the previous session rose for three weeks in a row, and weaker downstream demand has been confirmed, but supply-side disturbances still worry the market. Copper futures have rebounded recently, but have not yet broken the high set in the middle of the month.

Lead, from a fundamental point of view, primary lead, although accumulated last week, but due to cost reasons, refineries and traders more price shipments, refinery bulk orders basic reported to Shanghai lead 08 contract flat water to rise to 50 yuan / ton, warehouse receipt supply reported to rise water 50 yuan 100 yuan / ton. As for recycled lead, due to the high cost of waste batteries, meagre profits or even losses of recycled lead smelters, and generally bullish on lead prices, recycled lead smelters tend to cherish sales, resulting in a tight supply of recycled lead. some of the demand downstream flows to electrolytic lead, boosting the price of lead to a certain extent. On the consumer side, lead battery consumption is still not bright performance, dealers mainly to digest inventory, but today's spot, the downstream battery wholesale market trading activity is OK, follow-up attention to the substantial benefits brought by the peak consumption season. Lead costs support lead prices to stop falling and stabilize, while macroeconomic recovery expectations and lead consumption expectations further drive lead prices up. The peak consumption season of lead batteries in August is still expected. The lead short selling power in Shanghai is not strong, and it is expected that it may continue to strengthen after consolidation in the short term.

[SMM analysis] lead in Shanghai is expected to continue to strengthen after consolidation in the peak consumption season.

In terms of black, thread rose nearly 1.6%, hot coil rose nearly 1.1%, stainless steel rose nearly 0.9%, coke rose nearly 1.1%, coking coal fell nearly 0.4%, iron ore rose nearly 2.2%. In the past few weeks, more than 20 provinces and cities in the country have been hard hit by torrential rains and floods. Areas along the Yangtze River have been severely affected, with cumulative rainfall from June to July the highest since 1961. However, according to the National Meteorological Center, the rainy season may begin to fade by the end of this month, raising expectations of a rebound in steel demand. SMM believes that before the seasonal impact has not faded, although the supply-side production pressure is gradually easing, the marginal contribution to the improvement in fundamentals is generally good and there is strong support at the bottom of spot prices. With the gradual emergence of plum in eastern China, the demand side is expected to pick up, but the increase after the recovery may be limited by factors such as inventory. "View details

The last period of crude oil rose nearly 0.8%. In terms of data, the (API) of the American Petroleum Institute released data showing that US crude oil stocks increased unexpectedly last week, while gasoline and refined oil stocks fell more than expected. API reported that US crude oil stocks rose 7.544 million barrels to 531 million barrels last week, while Cushing crude stocks rose 716000 barrels. API reported that gasoline stocks fell by 2.019 million barrels last week; refinery stocks fell by 1.357 million barrels last week. API data also showed that US crude oil imports fell by 825000 b / d last week.

In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose nearly 2.8% and Shanghai silver rose nearly 8% on the sell-off of the dollar and expectations that stimulus will intensify to help recovery in pandemic-hit economies.

As of 09:35, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:

Brief comments on SMM:

Copper: last night, Lun Copper closed at 6563 US dollars / ton, up 1.37%. The trading volume was 13000 lots, and the long positions increased by 1128 to 317000 lots. The Shanghai Copper 2009 contract closed at 52380 yuan / ton, up 0.98%, the trading volume was 69000 lots, and the long positions increased by 3956 lots to 117000 lots. Although there was a certain degree of concussion in the copper price last night, the operation center kept moving up, and the longer positive line was recorded in both the inner and outer disk. Commodity prices rose as the EU agreed on an economic stimulus package, with spot silver rising more than 7 per cent at one point and oil prices rebounding to their highest level since March. In addition, the rise in risky assets such as US stocks has also led to an improvement in market sentiment, with copper prices rising on the back of optimism on the back of strong fundamentals and are still expected to have upward momentum today. On the spot side, due to the long order delivery period this week, rising water is easy to rise and difficult to fall, although the market price is rising, it is expected that the rising water will remain under the rising price sentiment of traders. It is estimated that today Lun Copper 6550 USD6600 / ton, Shanghai Copper 52400 RMB52700 / ton. It is expected that the spot water will rise to 120 yuan per ton today.

Aluminum: yesterday, the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum opened at 14250 yuan / ton in the morning, and fell back after opening at 14285 yuan / ton, falling to a low of 14185 yuan / ton in a row, with a narrow adjustment after a slight rebound; it fluctuated little in the afternoon, fluctuating within the range of 1421514285 yuan / ton, and finally closed at 14245 yuan / ton, with trading volume reduced to 72000 hands, position reduced to 117000 hands, and daily line closed with small crosses. The total position in Shanghai Aluminum Futures increased to 399000 lots, while the trading volume decreased to 165000 lots. Last night, the main force of Shanghai Aluminum opened high at 14360 yuan / ton, opened to cover the gap downward, then rushed up to a high of 14440 yuan / ton, then adjusted narrowly below 14000 yuan / ton, and closed at 14395 yuan / ton at the end of the day. The fundamentals have not changed much, the spot rising water has dropped somewhat, and the macro aspect of overseas promotion of the new economic stimulus plan has a certain positive effect on aluminum prices. It is estimated that the main operating range of Shanghai Aluminum today is 14200 RMB14600 / ton.

Lead: overnight, Shanghai lead opened at 15015 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the session, Shanghai lead rose rapidly, raising the operating center of gravity, reaching a high of 15105 yuan / ton, and then basically continued the concussion trend, finally reported at 15080 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.03%. The low shock of lead in Shanghai rebounded, showing a trend to stop falling and stabilize, and the upward trend is expected to continue in the short term.

Zinc: overnight, the main 2009 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 17910 yuan / ton, led by the outer disk at the beginning of the day, Shanghai zinc concussion strengthened, touched high 18225 yuan / ton, but the bulls were afraid of high, Shanghai zinc fell step by step, pulled back near the low 18032 yuan / ton, recovered part of the decline, the center of gravity moved up to 18135 yuan / ton horizontal finishing, and finally closed up 18165 yuan / ton, up 345 yuan / ton, up 1.94%, trading volume increased to 101775 lots, position increased 7850 lots to 7850 lots Overnight Shanghai zinc recorded barefoot positive column, the lower 5 / 10 line to provide support, the upper Bollinger Road upper rail to form a compression, MACD index positive column expanded. Overnight, Shanghai Zinc opened high, overseas good news frequently, superimposed domestic consumption optimistic expectation support, Shanghai Zinc performance is strong. Pay close attention to the development of Sino-US trade in the short term. The contract price of Shanghai Zinc 2009 is expected to operate in the range of 17900 won / t, and it is expected that domestic Shuangyan Zinc will increase the water price by 90m / t in August.

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Nickel: the market is optimistic about the White House's new bailout stimulus policy. The three major US stock indexes opened higher, with the dollar index falling 0.64% to a four-month low at 98.186, as safe-haven demand cooled and the European Union reached an agreement on the economic stimulus package. it also pushed commodity prices higher. Non-ferrous items turned red at night, with Shanghai Silver leading the rise. The overnight Shanghai Nickel 10 contract opened at 106250 yuan / ton. After the opening of Shanghai Nickel night trading, the bulls increased their positions significantly. Shanghai Nickel concussion pulled up to 107800 yuan / ton. The pressure on Shanghai Nickel fell slightly, and the center of gravity went down to 107500 yuan / ton. It fluctuated in a narrow range around this position until it closed, and there was support at the position of 107300 yuan / ton below. It was finally quoted at 107450 yuan / ton, an increase of 1480 yuan / ton, or 1.40%, over the previous trading day. The trading volume was 411000 lots, and the position decreased by 1626 lots to 130000 lots. Overnight, Shanghai Nickel closed at the Zhongyang column, and the K column broke through the 10 / 20 moving average and the middle rail pressure of the Boll Line, facing a pressure of 107800 yuan / ton above. Today, we will pay attention to the consolidation of Shanghai Nickel at this level.

Tin: Shanghai tin trend: the main 2009 contract of Shanghai tin opened at 142170 yuan / ton last night, the highest was 142900 yuan / ton, and the lowest was 141630 yuan / tonne. It closed at 141630 yuan / ton, up 0.23%. 19320 hands were traded and 26924 positions were held, a decrease of 645 hands. Shanghai tin 2009 contract high jump opened at 142170 yuan / ton last night, after the opening of the bulls entered, Shanghai Scylla rose to a night trading peak of 142900 yuan / ton. Then the bulls made profit-taking, the center of gravity moved down, then arranged horizontally, the bulls left the market again in the middle of the market, the tin center of gravity in Shanghai moved down to around 142100 yuan / ton, and then the long short game in Shanghai fluctuated across the market, and the bulls left the market in the last session. The bottom is also expected to reach a low of 141630 yuan / ton, closing at 141630 yuan / ton, showing a negative line, and the night market K line has been running above the 5-day moving average. It is estimated that the lower support level is located near the 10-day moving average of 141320 yuan / ton, and the upper pressure is around 143000 yuan / ton.

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