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Just now! Trump admits that the epidemic could get worse and requires Americans to wear masks. Silver rose 7.57% in Europe and the United States to join hands in "13 trillion" to save the market.
Jul 22,2020 08:08CST
translation
Source:Futures daily
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM: by the EU reached a breakthrough fiscal stimulus agreement, and the United States Congress is speeding up the discussion of a new round of fiscal stimulus package and other news, European and American stock markets rose sharply, gold, silver, crude oil prices rose sharply. As of the early morning close, the US S & P 500 index was up 0.17%; the European Stoxx50 index was up 0.54%; the dollar index was down 0.64%; WTI crude oil was up 1.91%; Brent crude oil was up 1.89%; Lun copper was up 1.37%; and gold was up 1.33%. American beans fell 0.72%; American soybean meal fell 1.21%; American soybean oil rose 0.79%; American sugar fell 0.43%; American cotton rose 0.03%; the BDI index rose 1.29%; the BDI index fell 5.01%. Offshore RMB CNH rose 0.20%; Deutsche Bank X-Trackers Castrol Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Chinese A-share ETF fell 0.32%.

U.S. president Donald Trump said at an epidemic briefing on July 21 local time that the new coronal pneumonia epidemic in the United States could get worse before it can be alleviated, according to the Associated Press. He asked Americans to wear masks when they can't maintain social distance.

There is a wave of corporate bankruptcy in the United States, with bankruptcy filings surging 26% in the first half of 2020. The New Crown pneumonia pandemic is setting off a wave of corporate bankruptcies in the United States, and thousands of retailers, energy companies and other companies have been hit hard. As of June 30, 2020, more than 3600 US companies had filed for bankruptcy protection, up 26 per cent from the same period last year, according to Epiq Global, a legal services firm. In June alone, as the epidemic rebounded across the US and the economic recovery stalled, US corporate bankruptcy filings surged 43 per cent from a year earlier.

Europe and the United States "join hands" in "13 trillion" to save the market.

It is reported that the leaders of the 27 EU countries finally reached an agreement on a 750 billion euro post-epidemic economic recovery plan and an EU budget for the next seven years during a 90-minute summit on the 21st local time. European Council President Michelle Michel said the agreement is extremely important to Europe.

It is reported that the EU is preparing to set up a total recovery fund of 750 billion euros, of which 390 billion euros will be used as free grants and another 360 billion euros as loans to finance post-epidemic reconstruction in member states. Compared with the European Commission's previous proposal, the plan will reduce the free allocation from 500 billion euros to 390 billion euros.

European public opinion generally believes that the agreement is the result of mutual concessions and compromises among EU member states over the past few days, but reaching a consensus is only the first step, and it remains to be seen whether the EU can effectively deal with severe economic challenges.

Meanwhile, on July 20, US Eastern time, all members of Congress, who had been in recess for two weeks, returned to Washington for a new round of discussions on the new crown economic stimulus package, which expires in August. U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said another trillion-dollar stimulus package (more than 7 trillion yuan) is under way. He also revealed plans to cut payroll taxes in the next stimulus bill.

Affected by this, the global stock market began to rise mode. As of the close, the Dow closed up 159.53 points, or 0.60%, at 26840.40; the Nasdaq closed down 86.73 points, or 0.81%, at 10680.36; and the S & P 500 closed up 5.46 points, or 0.17%, at 3257.30.

The United States added 11 Chinese enterprises to the entity list, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded.

Following the announcement by (BIS) of the Bureau of Industry and Security of the US Department of Commerce on 22 May this year that 33 Chinese companies and institutions would be included in the "entity list", the US BIS announced that 11 Chinese companies would be included in the entity list. Among them, many listed companies are involved, including Ofeiguang, BGI and so on.

From the list, Ofeiguang, BGI, Jinchuang Group and other listed companies are also involved. After the enterprises and institutions and individuals included in the "entity list" are included in the "entity list" by the United States, the United States will restrict the export, import or re-export to these companies. Cymbal

The specific list is as follows:

Changji Esquel Textile Co. Ltd. (Changji Yida Textile Co., Ltd.)

Hefei Bitland Information Technology Co. Ltd. (Hefei Baolongda Information Technology Co., Ltd.)

Hefei Meiling Co. Ltd. (Hefei Meiling Co., Ltd.)

Hetian Haolin Hair Accessories Co. Ltd. (Hetian Haolin hair Decoration Co., Ltd.) (transliteration)

Hetian Taida Apparel Co., Ltd. (Hotan Taida Garment Co., Ltd.)

KTK Group (Jinchuang Group)

Nanjing Synergy Textiles Co. Ltd. (Nanjing Xinyi Cotton Textile)

Nanchang O-Film Tech (Nanchang Oufei Technology)

Tanyuan Technology Co. Ltd. (carbon technology)

Xinjiang Silk Road BGI (Xinjiang Silk Road Huada Gene)

Beijing Liuhe BGI (Beijing Liuhe Huada Gene)

In this regard, at the regular press conference of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs on July 21, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said: "the US side uses the so-called human rights as an excuse to abuse export control measures to include relevant Chinese enterprises on the entity list." this violates the basic norms of international relations, interferes in China's internal affairs and harms China's interests, and the Chinese side firmly opposes this. What the US side is concerned about is not a human rights issue at all, but an attempt to crack down on Chinese enterprises, undermine stability in Xinjiang, and discredit China's policy on governing the border, of which the international community sees this very clearly. We urge the US side to correct its mistakes, rescind relevant decisions and stop interfering in China's internal affairs. China will continue to take all necessary measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises. "

According to statistics, this is the third batch of Chinese enterprises or individuals that have been included in the "entity list" by the United States because of "Xinjiang issues." In October last year and June this year, the US government twice expanded the "entity list", and 37 Chinese companies and institutions, including Huawei, Haikangwei and Zhejiang Dahua, were previously included by the US side. At present, 48 Chinese enterprises and institutions have been included in the list.

According to the United States Department of Commerce, after these enterprises and institutions or individuals are included in the "entity list", the United States Government can restrict export, import or re-export to these institutions in accordance with the Export Administration regulations.

In June this year, a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce pointed out when asked about the United States' inclusion of 33 relevant Chinese institutions and individuals on the "entity list" of export control: "the US side has repeatedly abused export controls and other measures on the grounds of so-called national security." the use of state power to crack down on enterprises of other countries has caused serious damage to the international economic and trade order and posed a serious threat to the security of the global industrial chain supply chain. "

Gold and silver oil rose sharply, silver rose by more than 7%

On the evening of July 21, gold and silver accelerated under the influence of the stimulus rescue plan in Europe and the United States. COMEX silver futures rose to 7 per cent on the day. As of the early morning close this morning, the international gold price closed higher, standing above the $1840 mark, reaching a new closing high in nearly nine years. August gold futures, the most actively traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, rose $26.50, or 1.46 per cent, to $1843.9 an ounce on June 21 from the previous day. Silver futures for September delivery rose $1.365, or 6.76%, to close at $21.557 an ounce, the highest close since March 2014.

In the domestic futures market, on July 21, gold and silver continued to rise, but there was a clear differentiation between the strong and the weak. By the close of trading yesterday afternoon, the main contracts of Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver were up 0.86 per cent and 5.66 per cent respectively.

Since July, silver has generally outperformed gold, and the COMEX gold and silver ratio has fallen below the 90 mark. In this regard, Zhang Chen, a German futures precious metals analyst, told Futures Daily that there are two main reasons for gold and silver's continued strength: first, the global epidemic continues to worsen, inflation expectations continue to repair, and risk aversion mood is high; second, under the influence of the epidemic, silver supply is interrupted; third, the US economic data in the third quarter is expected to be pessimistic, and the pressure on the dollar to fall further intensified, and risk aversion sentiment pushed gold and silver prices to continue to rise.

It is understood that under the influence of the epidemic, production in many mining areas has been suspended, which has had a great impact on the supply of silver. According to foreign media reports, mining production in Mexico, the largest silver producer, will shrink by 17% by 2020. The analysis pointed out that the follow-up impact of the epidemic could reduce silver production by another 30 million-50 million ounces, which means that the world's supply of silver mines is very likely to fall below 800m ounces to 785 million-795 million ounces in 2020, peaking at 894 million ounces in 2015.

Since July 2020, interest rates on 10-year US bonds (nominal interest rates) have generally remained low, down 6% from the end of June, and inflation expectations have continued to repair, 9% higher than at the end of June. under the combined effect of the two, real interest rates are 24% lower than at the end of June, setting a new low for the year, with obvious support for gold. If you take a longer view of the cycle, the decline in real interest rates after the liquidity crisis in mid-March was largely driven by the repair of inflation expectations, making it better for silver. If the subsequent epidemic continues to worsen, it may dampen risk sentiment, causing nominal interest rates and inflation expectations to fall in the same direction, which may be more beneficial to gold. " Zhang Chen said.

On the investment demand side, positions in the world's largest silver ETF--iShares Silver Trust surged by 478 tonnes from the previous day, the biggest one-day increase since January 2013 and currently stands at 16857.08 tonnes. The world's largest gold ETF--SPDR Gold Trust position increased by 7.89 tons, or 0.65%, compared with the previous day, and the current position is 1219.75 tons.

Wang Rong, director of non-ferrous and precious metals research at Guotai Junan Futures, believes that silver is more like a commodity than gold, so the trend of silver is more sensitive to changes in inflation expectations-generally speaking, when inflation expectations rise, silver tends to outperform gold. At this stage, silver is expected to continue to achieve stronger market performance than gold, benefiting from the strength of the industrial sector and overseas inflation expectations. Bullish on silver performance in the short term, but the core driver still depends on the trend of gold.

Zhang Chen believes that silver generally sees a phased top no later than gold, and a phased bottom later than gold. From this point of view, after a new high in silver, the opportunity for certainty lies in being long gold. Therefore, investors need to pay attention to several important factors in the next step: first, the follow-up trend of the epidemic in the United States; second, the impact of Sino-US relations on market sentiment. In addition, from the technical indicators, the current silver bullish market is in the acceleration stage, the weekly line 7 Lianyang has reached the record of the peak in 2011, investors should lock in profits and prevent the risk of withdrawal.

Jim Wyckoff, an analyst at Kitco, believes that gold prices have shown an upward trend in the last six weeks, and from a technical point of view, the overall technical advantage of gold bulls in recent days is also relatively strong, suggesting that there will be more upside for spot gold in the near future. The next resistance level of spot gold is expected to be 1850 level, and the second resistance level is 1875 level.

In the crude oil market, the latest API report shows that US crude oil stocks increased by 7.544 million barrels to 531 million barrels last week and is expected to decrease by 1.95 million barrels. Gasoline supply in the United States reached 8.9 million barrels a day last week, the highest level since the outbreak escalated in mid-March, Descartes Lab said.

Baocheng Futures Chen Dong believes that since July, the rising pace of global crude oil futures prices has continued to slow down, and the pullback pressure has gradually increased. Among them, the domestic crude oil futures 2009 contract at the beginning of this week once fell to 292.5 yuan / barrel, although the futures price rebounded slightly yesterday, but did not change the short-term oscillatory downward trend. At present, OPEC+ oil-producing countries have decided to reduce crude oil production since August, and the tight supply has eased somewhat. In addition, the epidemic of New Crown pneumonia in Europe and the United States and emerging economies is still spreading, so the outlook for crude oil demand is not optimistic.

Although OPEC believes in its latest monthly report that global demand for crude oil will increase by a record 7 million barrels a day in 2021 as the global economy recovers. However, we believe that this forecast is based on many assumptions: in the context of the easing of Sino-US trade relations, the improvement of high government debt and the control of the second wave of the epidemic, the recovery of major economies is expected to lead to a pick-up in crude oil consumption. However, in view of the current daily increase in the number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the world, the assumption that the epidemic is under control is more difficult to achieve. As of July 21, the total number of confirmed cases overseas reached 14.77 million, with an increase of 178600 in a single day. Among them, the United States, Europe, Brazil and India are the worst-hit areas, while the above-mentioned areas have a large consumption of crude oil. The epidemic continues to spread and tends to get out of control, which will undoubtedly lead to a bleak outlook for crude oil demand in the future. " Chen Dong said.

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