Home / Metal News / Precious Metals / [SMM Metal Breakfast] the inflection point of electrolytic copper inventory in Guangdong has appeared * the national electrolytic aluminum production increased by 0.80% in June * domestic steel demand is expected to recover quickly.
[SMM Metal Breakfast] the inflection point of electrolytic copper inventory in Guangdong has appeared * the national electrolytic aluminum production increased by 0.80% in June * domestic steel demand is expected to recover quickly.
Jul 22,2020 07:30CST
translation
Source:SMM
[SMM Metal Breakfast] the inflection point of Guangdong electrolytic copper inventory has shown the future or continue to fluctuate higher * Bureau of Statistics: June national electrolytic aluminum production increased 0.80% year on year * Shanghai lead back to the top of the five-year Plan consumption season is expected to continue to strengthen after consolidation * downstream procurement enthusiasm to enhance the supply of recycled lead is in short supply * the production of nickel products in Indonesia increased in the first half of the year * domestic iron and steel demand in the latter part of the rainy season. Looking for a quick recovery * Lu Guixin, an inspector from the raw materials department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, went to the Iron and Steel Association to conduct a special investigation on iron ore * Gold futures reached the highest closing price in nearly 9 years and silver reached a six-year high.
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

[overnight market] the dollar fell to a four-month low and commodities rose across the board. Us stocks rose or fell, and US oil hit a more than four-month high.

"Today's Financial data Forecast: focusing on the annualized total of existing home sales in the United States in June, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech.

Today's focus

[SMM analysis: Guangdong electrolytic copper inventory inflection point has shown the future or continue to shock higher] the possibility of another surge in arrival is very small, off-site transfers and imported copper will not increase substantially, and the future will take domestic copper from neighboring provinces and normal imported copper as the main supply; the increase or decrease of inventory depends more on consumption. According to our latest research, the operating rate of the vast majority of downstream enterprises in Guangdong has been declining since July, and the number of new orders has also declined month-on-month, and it is generally expected that there will not be a significant improvement before mid-August. In addition, the price difference of refined copper remains high and scrap copper replaces refined copper, which is another important reason for the weak consumption of electrolytic copper. To sum up, we expect that the inventory of electrolytic copper in Guangdong will show a fluctuating trend in the short term. "View details

[Bureau of Statistics: national electrolytic aluminum production increased by 0.80% in June compared with the same period last year] according to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the national aluminum output in June 2020 was 5.565 million tons, with a cumulative output of 26.458 million tons, an increase of 20.70 percent over the same period last year and a cumulative increase of 7.80 In June 2020, the national output of aluminum alloy was 822000 tons, with a cumulative output of 4.144 million tons, an increase of 11.80 percent over the same period last year and a cumulative increase of 1.00 percent. In June 2020, China produced 3.015 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, with a cumulative output of 17.889 million tons, an increase of 0.80 percent over the same period last year and a cumulative increase of 1.70 percent. "View details

[SMM analysis: lead in Shanghai is expected to continue to strengthen after the return of consumption over the five-year Plan] the new crown vaccine has made a major breakthrough and a new round of epidemic relief is brewing in the United States, while domestic A-shares have soared again, boosting market confidence in the future economic recovery, and macro sentiment has improved, driving lead prices higher to a certain extent. SMM believes that lead costs support lead prices to stop falling and stabilize, while macroeconomic recovery expectations and lead consumption expectations further drive lead prices up. The peak consumption season for lead batteries in August is still expected, and the lead short selling power in Shanghai is not strong, and it is expected to continue to strengthen after consolidation in the short term. "View details

[SMM lead battery column: downstream procurement enthusiasm to enhance the shortage of recycled lead supply] on July 21, Shanghai lead in early trading was entrusted with the intraday moving average, which was adjusted horizontally by the 20-day average of 14948 yuan / ton. Due to the tight supply of waste batteries, the purchasing demand of smelters is not reduced, the price rises with the price of lead, the cost of recycled refineries remains high, more up-price shipments, and the price of reduced lead rises. Recycled lead stickers have also shrunk, the mainstream quotation of SMM1# lead average price discount 150Me 250 yuan / ton, downstream procurement enthusiasm increased, recycled lead supply shortage phenomenon. The consumption of the electric battery market is mediocre, and the dealers continue to digest the inventory. In addition, due to the rise in the prices of the major brands, the trading activity in the battery wholesale market is OK. At present, the main model 48v20Ah is 350 Mel 380 yuan per group. "View details

[Indonesia's nickel production increased in the first half] Indonesia's main nickel miners produced 666696 tons of ferronickel between January and June, Yunus Saefulhak, head of minerals at Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, said on Monday. Indonesia also produced 418955 tons of nickel pig iron (NPI) between January and June, Saefulhak said. Ferronickel and nickel pig iron are products made from nickel ore and are used in the manufacture of stainless steel. "View details

[Indonesian government: almost all nickel mines can be processed domestically by 2022] the Indonesian government recently said that if all refining and processing facilities (smelters) are completed and put into operation in 2022, almost all nickel ore produced can be processed domestically. At present, the country's nickel mine production reaches about 60 million tons per year, and at present, the country's smelters can absorb and process half of the new products. In the next two years, the amount of nickel ore that can be processed in China will be 59 million tons or close to the national output. "View details

[SMM brief comment: South Korea extends Anti-dumping duties on Japanese stainless Steel plates for the second time] on July 14, 2020, the South Korean Ministry of Strategic Finance issued notice No. 2020-108. in accordance with Resolution No. 801 of the South Korean Ministry of Strategic Finance, it decided to extend the anti-dumping duties on imported stainless steel plates originating in Japan for the second time, valid for three years. According to SMM, Japan's crude steel output decreased significantly in July compared with the previous month. On the one hand, it was affected by the epidemic in the first half of 2020 and the economic recovery lagged behind after the epidemic in the third to fourth quarters. On the other hand, South Korea's extension of anti-dumping duties on Japanese plates increased the adverse impact of Japanese exports. "View details

[Poly Xiexin's polysilicon plant with an annual capacity of 48000 tons stopped production after the explosion] according to people familiar with the matter, the Poly Xiexin Xinjiang polysilicon plant stopped production on July 19 due to an explosion caused by a problem with its distillation unit. By the end of 2019, the plant had an annual capacity of 48000 tons.

[the quotation of SMM: Silicon Factory continues to be raised] on July 21, the quotations of some metallurgical grade low-grade silicon continued to rise, with the highest price of oxygenated 55 silicon reaching 10900 yuan / ton, and buyers had a strong wait-and-see mood.

[SMM brief Review: long enthusiasm does not reduce Silver prices hit 4-year highs Gold prices have recently broken through to the highest level since 2011. Gold prices are now below the all-time high of 1920.30 US dollars per ounce set in September 2011. the rise in gold prices is mainly due to unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus measures taken by governments and central banks around the world. There is also a surge in cases of new crown pneumonia to support demand for risk aversion. In addition, the price of silver also hit a more than four-year high. "View details

[southern rare earth adjusts the price of some oxides lutetium oxide price increases gadolinium oxide price down] China Southern rare Earth Group Southern rare Earth International Trading Co., Ltd. announced the latest listing price of medium and heavy rare earth oxides, and the prices of some rare earth oxides have been adjusted. In terms of price changes, gadolinium oxide is listed at 177000 yuan / ton, down 1000 yuan / ton compared with the previous period, while lutetium oxide is listed at 4.75 million yuan / ton, up 50, 000 yuan / ton. The prices of other varieties are the same as the previous period, samarium oxide 12000 yuan / ton, europium oxide 300000 yuan / ton, terbium oxide 4.7 million yuan / ton, dysprosium oxide 1.95 million yuan / ton, holmium oxide 420000 yuan / ton, erbium oxide 17 yuan / ton, ytterbium oxide 100000 yuan / ton, yttrium oxide 22000 yuan / ton, scandium oxide 9 million yuan / ton. "View details

[SMM hot rolls: shock to blur you may be the first to see signs of arrival] mainstream market resources are expected to arrive this week of 176000 tons, down 7000 tons from last week. In terms of segmentation, the volume of goods arriving in both the Shanghai market and Tianjin market has decreased a little, but the volume of goods from the market is still increasing. "View details

[SMM analysis: domestic steel demand is expected to recover quickly in the late rainy season] according to SMM, yesterday (July 20) the spot market mentality is cautious, the transaction situation is not good. SMM believes that before the seasonal impact has not faded, although the supply-side production pressure is gradually easing, the marginal contribution to the improvement in fundamentals is generally good and there is strong support at the bottom of spot prices. With the gradual emergence of plum in eastern China, the demand side is expected to pick up, but the increase after the recovery may be limited by factors such as inventory. "View details

Important news of metals and industry

Anqing Copper Mine achieved "double victories" in epidemic prevention and control and safe production in the first half of this year. In the first half of this year, under the dual pressure of epidemic prevention and control and safe production, Anqing Copper Mine scientifically arranged, carefully organized, and paid close attention to implementation, and won a beautiful all-round victory. As of June 30, there were no loopholes in the prevention and control of the mine epidemic. The workers' thoughts and emotions were stable, the production and life were normal, and the main production indicators were good. Among them, copper, iron, heavy media and other main products completed 51.63%, 59.93% and 52.91% of the annual plan respectively, and the iron products exceeded the quota by 27300 tons.

[Atalaya Mining copper production rose 3 per cent in the second quarter] although the Riotinto mine was ordered to stop production for five days at the end of March, copper production by Spain's Atalaya mining company (Atalaya Mining) rose 3 per cent to 13635 tons in the second quarter. Mainly due to the fact that the expanded plant has been performing better than expected since Proyecto Riotinto resumed operation on April 6, 2020.

[Zambian Ministry of Mines rejects planned suspension of Glencore Copper production] Mopani Copper Mines, a Zambian subsidiary of Glencore, said last Thursday that the Zambian Ministry of Mines had rejected its proposal to suspend operations. Mopani said it would appeal the decision and would continue mining operations until the outcome of the appeal process was determined.

[annual production of 300000 aluminum alloy lightweight mini-cars started in Yizhou] the opening ceremony of the annual production of 300000 aluminum alloy lightweight mini-cars in Hechi was held in Luodong Industrial concentration area of Yizhou District. The total investment is 5 billion yuan and the annual production capacity is 500000 vehicles, which is divided into two phases of construction. The first phase has a total investment of 2 billion yuan and an annual production capacity of 300000 aluminum alloy lightweight mini-cars. The project expects annual sales of about 100000 vehicles in the second year of mass production and 300000 vehicles in the fifth year of mass production.

[Weser-Metall, a major German lead producer, suspended production] it is reported that Weser-Metall, one of the leading lead producers in Europe, stopped production last weekend. The producer produces about 105000 tons of lead a year. The company, previously owned by French metal producer Recylex, filed for bankruptcy in May. At present, the company is under bankruptcy self-management. And said it was not clear when production would resume. "View details

[Indonesian government sets up a task force to monitor nickel trading] recently, the Indonesian government has set up a working group (working group) to supervise the sale and sale of nickel. The working group was established in accordance with the rules governing mineral benchmark prices (HPM) stipulated in Article 11 of the regulations of Ministers of Energy and Mineral Resources 2020. Yunus Saefulhak, director of mineral development and operations of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, said that a working group made up of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, the Ministry of Industry (Kemenperin) and BKPM will oversee the trading system in which nickel ore producers and smelters act as buyers. "View details

[mining annual report: nickel production and sales in South32:2020 's fiscal year are both down 1% from the same period last year] recently, when South32 released its results for fiscal 2020, South32 CEO Graham Kerr said, "our top priority is still to keep our employees safe and healthy, maintain reliable operations and support our community through the COVID-19 pandemic." According to the report, the company's nickel production in fiscal 2020 was 40.6 kilotons (kt), down 1 percent from last year's 41.1 kilotons, while nickel sales were 0.6 kilotons (kt), down 1 percent from last year's 41.2 kilotons. "View details

[mining quarterly report: Vale: manganese ore production dropped 59% month on month in the second quarter. Ferroalloy production dropped 45%] recently, Vale released its production and sales report for the second quarter of 2020. In terms of manganese, manganese ore output in the second quarter was 149000 tons, down 59% from the previous quarter. Sales were 270000 tons, up 23.33%, ferroalloy production was 15000 tons, down 45.2%, sales were 10, 000 tons, and 63% lower than the previous month. "View details

[mining annual report: manganese ore production in South32:2020 fiscal year fell 3% year on year, manganese alloy production dropped 27%] recently, South32 released its results for fiscal year 2020. According to the report, South32's manganese ore output in fiscal year 2020 decreased by 3% compared with the same period in 2019. (kwmt), dropped by 3% compared with 5536 thousand wet tons in fiscal year 2019, and manganese alloy output dropped by 27% compared with the same period last year. "View details

[rare earth metal company Pensana seeks to jointly develop Longonjo rare earth mine with China Great Wall Industrial Group Co., Ltd.] rare earth metals company Pensana has announced that it is forming a partnership with China Great Wall Industrial Group Co., Ltd. (CGWIC) to develop its flagship mine in Angola, the Longonjo rare earth mine, which is scheduled to start production in 2022 and is located on top of the world's largest praseodymium-neodymium deposit. Pensana said in March 2019 that it had significantly increased the estimated resources of the Longonjo mine to 240 million tons and the rare earth oxide grade of 1.6 per cent. The resources were raised again to 23 billion tons, an increase of 95.8 times, but the grade of rare earth ores was not disclosed. "View details

[Lu Guixin, inspector of the raw materials department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, went to the Iron and Steel Association to conduct a special investigation on iron ore] on the afternoon of July 20, Lu Guixin, a first-class inspector of the raw material industry department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and his party went to the China Iron and Vice President Luo Tiejun reported on the work of the Iron and Steel Association in ensuring the supply of iron ore, promoting the stability of the iron ore market and optimizing the pricing mechanism. Inspector Lu Guixin fully affirmed the work done by the Steel Association. He pointed out that the recent trend of iron ore prices has deviated from the fundamentals, and it is necessary to take comprehensive measures to cure both the symptoms and the root causes, and plan the protection of iron ore resources from the short-term and medium-to long-term.

[China Enfei winning bid Salbulak Gold Mine Environmental pollution risk Control Project] recently, China Enfei Engineering and Technology Co., Ltd. won the bid for the environmental pollution risk control project of Salbulak Gold Mine in Fuyun County, Xinjiang. It is understood that this project is the first soil remediation project of China's Enfei in Xinjiang, and the project has successfully won the bid, fully demonstrating China's technical and professional advantages in soil remediation in the non-ferrous industry. it has important strategic significance to open up the regional market of soil remediation business, enhance the brand influence in the field of contaminated site treatment, and consolidate the position of the emerging business of soil remediation.

In the early hours of the 22nd, gold futures prices closed at their highest level in nearly nine years on Tuesday, and silver closed at its highest closing price since 2014. [gold futures hit a six-year high for gold futures in nearly nine years.] in the early hours of the 22nd, gold futures prices closed at their highest level in nearly nine years. Precious metals prices have been boosted by a fiscal stimulus deal in the EU and a new round of spending plans being contemplated in the US. EU leaders have formed a 1.8 trillion euro ($2.1 trillion) budget and rescue fund package to help countries hardest hit by the coronavirus epidemic after four days of painstaking negotiations. The weakness of the dollar also boosted the price of gold. When the gold futures market closed on Tuesday, the ICE dollar index, (DXY), fell nearly 0.8% to 95.10, its lowest level since March. "View details

Macro focus

Domestic:

Xi Jinping said at a forum of entrepreneurs on July 21, 2020: we will properly implement the policy of bailing out and benefiting enterprises. It is necessary to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, a more prudent and flexible monetary policy, and enhance the pertinence and timeliness of macro policies. It is necessary to continue to reduce taxes and fees, rent and interest rates, so as to ensure that various relief measures reach the grass roots and directly benefit the main body of the market. It is necessary to strengthen financial support to market entities, develop inclusive finance, and effectively alleviate the financing difficulties and expensive problems of enterprises, especially small and medium-sized and micro enterprises. It is necessary to support marketable export commodities to open up the domestic market. State-owned enterprises, especially central enterprises, should play a leading role and lead all kinds of upstream and downstream enterprises to tide over the difficulties. It is necessary to strengthen international cooperation and protect the industrial chain supply chain.

Central bank: from March 1 to June 30, the 934 financial institutions in line with the policy of reduction and reduction made a total of 360 million inquiries on personal credit reports and 2.292 million inquiries on corporate credit reports, and the fee for credit inquiry was reduced by about 370 million yuan. Of these, consumer finance companies reduced about 130 million yuan, private banks about 110 million yuan, and micro-loan companies about 70 million yuan.

The National Development and Reform Commission: it has issued a special project for the construction of Xiongan New area to invest 1.05 billion yuan in the second batch of the central budget in 2020 to support the construction of high quality and high standards in Xiongan New area. On the premise of regular epidemic prevention and control, the NDRC will speed up the construction of major projects in Xiongan New area, help coordinate and solve the difficulties and problems in project construction in a timely manner, and continue to increase financial and policy support for the construction of the new area.

Guangdong Provincial Party Committee Deep Reform Commission: issued "some measures on deepening the Reform and Development of Provincial State-owned Enterprises". Measures will be taken to further enlarge the function of state-owned capital. To formulate and implement a three-year action plan for capital operation of provincial enterprises to promote the concentration of state-owned assets to listed companies. In 2022, we will achieve the listing of two provincial enterprise groups as a whole, and strive to have at least one main listed company for each provincial enterprise.

Abroad:

According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the country started 1.19 million new homes in June, a big leap from May, indicating that construction companies are reworking as the blockade of the epidemic is relaxed.

July 22, data show that the unemployment rate of fresh college graduates with bachelor's degree or above in the United States climbed to 13.3% in June this year, an all-time high. Economists believe that if there is a recession, young workers and fresh graduates may be the hardest hit. "View details

According to CME Fed Watch, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates in the 0% won 0.25% range in July is 100%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.25% is 0%. The probability of keeping interest rates in the 0% won 0.25% range in September is 100%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 0%.

Terminal information

[Yiwei Lithium Energy: subsidiary Jingmen Chuangneng increases the production, marketing and R & D of battery materials] recently, Yiwei Lithium Energy announced that the company has received notice from its subsidiary Jingmen Yiwei Chuangneng Lithium Battery Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Jingmen Chuangneng"). Due to business development and management needs, Jingmen Chuangneng has changed its business scope, other information remains unchanged. After the change, the business scope of Jingmen Chuangneng has increased the "production of battery materials".

[Model Y stamping equipment installation at Tesla Shanghai Super Factory has been basically completed] according to foreign media reports, Tesla's Shanghai super factory is carrying out large-scale construction this year, mainly to build a production plant for cross-border sports multi-purpose vehicles Model Y. The latest foreign media reports show that during the construction of the roof, the Model Y production plant of Tesla Shanghai Super Factory is also installing relevant production equipment, including car body stamping equipment, stamping equipment installation, which has been basically completed.

[Federation of passengers: the passenger car market is expected to decline 11% year on year in 2020] according to the narrow passenger car data released by the Federation, wholesale sales of passenger cars in the first half of the year were 7.667 million, year-on-year-22.9%, and retail sales were 7.709 million,-22.5% year-on-year. This year, the retail market grew by-41% in the first quarter and-3% in the second quarter. The growth rate of the car market stabilized in the second quarter compared with the same period last year, showing a V rebound compared with the first quarter. After comprehensively considering many factors such as macro-economy, industrial policy and market environment, the passenger car market is expected to decline by 11% in 2020 compared with the same period last year.

[Sanmenxia Mengshi Technology High-end Lithium Ion Battery Project started] on July 17th, Sanmenxia Mengshi New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. 5GWh high-end lithium-ion battery project started in the city's urban-rural integration demonstration zone (high-tech zone). The total investment of the project is 2.5 billion yuan, the main products are national standard VDA size high-end aluminum shell and polymer lithium battery and battery pack, a total of 5 fully automatic production lines.

[car] Ford launched a racing version of its electric Mustang Mach-E, the Mustang Mach-E 1400, with 1400 horsepower and a top speed that does not meet street standards. By 2022, the company will invest $11.5 billion worldwide in electric vehicles, including Mustang Mach-E.

Related market

[us August WTI futures closed 2.8 per cent higher September WTI futures closed 2.4 per cent higher] in the early hours of the 22nd, US WTI crude oil futures prices closed higher on Tuesday, setting the highest closing price since March. The European Union has reached a rescue package for the coronavirus, easing concerns about the outlook for energy demand. In addition, analysts expect Wednesday's EIA (EIA) report to show that U.S. crude oil inventories fell for the second consecutive week in the week ended July 17. Analysts surveyed by S & P Global Platts expect corporate bonds to fall by an average of 1.9 million barrels. "View details

[Baltic dry bulk freight index fell to a one-month low for sea gorge and Panamanian vessels] the Baltic dry bulk freight index fell 84 points, or 5%, to 1594 points on Tuesday, a new low in nearly a month. The capesize index fell 221 points, or 7.5%, to 2729, the lowest level since June 17, and average daily profit fell $1834 to $22635. The capesize index has risen nearly 40 per cent so far this year, driven by China's increased demand for iron ore. The Panamanian shipping index fell 50 points, or 3.4%, to 1415, its lowest level in more than two weeks, and average daily profit fell $452to $12736. The index of super-convenient ships rose 9 points, or 1%, to 929.

[interest rate] overnight shibor was 1.5840%, down 37.25bp. In seven days, shibor was at 2.1010%, down 8.20 basis points. Three-month shibor was 2.4660%, up 6.20 basis points.

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