SMM: yesterday in the United States, the focus of the world's attention-the research and development of the new crown vaccine spread the big news again. According to the latest report from CNBC, a possible coronal vaccine developed by (Oxford University) at the University of Oxford has produced a good immune response in large-scale early human trials, according to the latest data released by the medical journal the Lancet on Monday.
Affected by the good news, U. S. stocks rose, crude oil, non-ferrous metals, gold closed higher. By the close of trading in the early hours of this morning, the S & P 500 index of US stocks was up 0.84%, the European Stoxx50 index was up 0.67%, the dollar index was down 0.19%, WTI crude oil was up 0.08%, beacon crude oil was up 0.25%, Lun copper was up 0.58%, gold was up 0.38%, American beans were up 0.45%, American soybean meal was up 0.99%, American soybean oil was down 0.52%, American sugar was down 0.60%, American cotton was up 1.55%, and the CRB index was down 0.10%. The BDI index fell 1.90 per cent, offshore renminbi CNH rose 0.04 per cent, and Deutsche Bank X-Trackers CSI 300 Chinese A-share ETF rose 3.02 per cent.
Notably, the US Treasury Secretary said early this morning that he planned to cut payroll taxes in the next stimulus bill. The epidemic situation and the progress of vaccine research and development, the US corporate earnings report, and the negotiations on a new round of fiscal stimulus in the US Congress have become the focus of the financial market recently.
23 new crown vaccines around the world enter clinical trials
According to the latest report from CNBC, a possible coronal vaccine developed by (Oxford University) at the University of Oxford has produced a good immune response in large-scale early human trials, according to the latest data released by the medical journal the Lancet on Monday.
In addition, on Monday night, the international academic journal the Lancet published online a paper on the results of phase II clinical trials of the new crown vaccine led by Chen Wei, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and a researcher at the Institute of military Medicine of the Academy of military Sciences.
Phase II clinical trials of the new crown candidate vaccine in China have found that the vaccine is safe and can induce an immune response, according to a new study published in the Lancet.
It is reported that the domestic new crown virus inactivated vaccine will be available as soon as the end of this year and the beginning of next year. Some epidemic prevention experts have pinned the fight against the new crown epidemic on the advent of the vaccine. According to the data of the World Health Organization as of July 15, 23 new crown vaccines worldwide have entered clinical trials, in addition to 140 vaccines in preclinical research. Wang Huaqing, chief expert in immunization planning of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, analyzed at the first Group Medicine and Public Health Forum of Peking Union Medical College on July 17 that the market supply of the new crown vaccine may be tight at the beginning of its launch. When formulating new crown vaccine immunization strategies at the national level, mass and personalized immunization strategies may be taken into account. a variety of strategies, including pandemic vaccination, emergency vaccination, travel immunization, pre-exposure immunization and post-exposure immunization, may be considered.
Supply shortage superimposed low inventory, rapeseed oil hit the limit
On Monday, the trend of domestic commodity futures was obviously divergent, with rapeseed oil rising by the daily limit, leading the grease and oil plate up, palm oil up more than 3%, rapeseed meal and soybean oil up nearly 3%, soda ash leading the falling energy plate, crude oil down more than 3%, methanol and fuel down nearly 2%; non-ferrous metals floating green, only Shanghai aluminum rose more than 1%, Shanghai nickel and Shanghai zinc fell more than 1%; black overall showed an oscillatory correction trend.
It is worth mentioning that most of the domestic commodity futures rose last night, and the glass rose nearly 3%. Soybean meal and rapeseed meal rose 1.82% and 2.25% respectively, while soybeans fell 1.15%. LPG rose 2.16%, while iron ore and asphalt both rose 1.59%. Rebar fell 0.11%, while hot rolled coil rose 0.29%. Coking coal and coke rose 0.54% and 0.33% respectively, while thermal coal fell 0.25%.
The recent performance of the three major oils is very eye-catching. It has risen for nearly two months in a row, an increase of nearly 30%. On Monday afternoon, due to supply shortages and low inventory factors, the main contract of rapeseed oil hit the daily limit.
Liu Jiawei, an oil analyst at Guotai Junan Futures, told Futures Daily that domestic temporary storage of rapeseed oil was on the high side in 2014 and 2015, and rapeseed oil continued to be dumped in the following years, and there is little left at present. Futures disk warehouse receipts gradually turn to imported rapeseed pressed rapeseed oil and imported crude rapeseed oil. Canada is China's main source of imports of rapeseed and rapeseed oil. Since the beginning of 2019, tensions in Sino-Canadian relations have led to a decline in domestic imports of rapeseed and rapeseed oil, and rapeseed oil has been consuming hidden stocks. Before the end of May this year, the market expected that Meng Wanzhou would be released, but the results exceeded expectations. The market was once again worried about tension in Sino-Canadian relations, and rapeseed oil began to rise. In addition, in the past two weeks, genetically modified ingredients in non-converted rapeseed oil imported from East China may be returned, and the price of rapeseed oil has also been boosted to some extent by factors such as a strong rise in palm oil production in early July.
A reporter from the Futures Daily learned that last week, there was market news that 50,000 tons of non-converted rapeseed oil produced by the European Union had not been cleared, and importers had planned to resell it to other countries to attract funds to push the price of rapeseed oil to rise sharply and hit the limit. At present, the continuous rise in the price of rapeseed oil mainly lies in the enthusiasm of funds, it has always been a fact that the supply of rapeseed oil is tight, and from the point of view of trading volume, there is almost no spot transaction of rapeseed oil in the near future.
Last week, palm oil 2009 contracts have broken through the gap of 5100 yuan / ton and 5200 yuan / ton before the high, short-term performance is strong. Citic Construction Investment Futures Shi Lihong believes that the fundamentals of palm oil are not as good as the market thought and do not have the basis for sustained rise.
It is understood that the latest MPOB monthly report gives a June output of up to 1.89 million tons. It was thought that it would extinguish the market's enthusiasm for production reduction and speculation, but because June this year was relatively special, both in the month after Ramadan, the market had certain production expectations and was at the dividing point of half a year, when the output from January to April lagged behind the progress of previous years, the plantation group had the momentum to impact the half-year performance, so that the market was not convinced by Malaysia's excessive palm oil production in June. In addition, Indonesian production fell 40 per cent month-on-month in early July, sparking market concerns and spurring a rise in palm oil prices last week.
"in addition, the market is also interspersed with some disruptive information, such as the abandonment of a company's palm oil tanker. The market is thus reminiscent of the recent strict customs inspection of vegetable oil. Some time ago, there was news that some EU rapeseed oil had been returned, which pushed the price of rapeseed oil all the way up to 8000 yuan / ton. Money and sentiment have added fire to the palm oil market. " Shi Lihong believes that after the return of palm oil has been falsified, what continues to push up the price of palm oil is the expected production reduction. At present, with regard to the reasons for the production reduction, there are two kinds of views in the market: one is that the impact of the severe drought from the end of June to November last year is apparent, and the producing area will enter a period of production reduction for several months; the other is that the production reduction in early July is only a disturbance caused by recent excessive rainfall, and the impact cycle is limited. These two kinds of views have different judgments on the sustainability of the market, taking into account that the production reduction occurred too late, Malaysian production is not abnormal, Shi Lihong believes that there is a greater possibility of unpredictable problems in the producing area.
Recently, there has been too much rainfall in Southeast Asia, causing flooding, which has a negative impact on the current production of palm oil. Shi Lihong believes that in the case of a short statistical cycle, periodic production fluctuations caused by weather disturbances are usually more obvious, which is an important reason why Indonesia's five-day production fell 44% month-on-month on July 1. After all, during the five-day statistical period, the impact of one day less on a working day is 20%, and two days is 40%, but the progress of harvest can actually be made up when the weather improves later.
"from the point of view of the widening price difference of beans and the narrowing of the price gap of bean brown, the substitution effect of soybean oil is obvious, which is good for the consumption of soybean oil. Against the backdrop of high soybean arrivals and rising crushing rates, soybean oil inventories rose, while soybean oil trading volume was better, and overall soybean oil inventory growth was relatively small. From the source of China's imports of soybeans in the fourth quarter, China's imports of American soybeans have more profit advantages than Brazilian soybeans, and there are not many surplus beans of Brazilian soybeans. In the fourth quarter, China must import soybeans from the United States, and at present, the price of American beans is expected to rise in weather. Therefore, the price fluctuation range of American beans in the outer disk is good for domestic soybean oil prices. " Xie Wen, an agricultural product analyst at CUHK Futures Research Institute, said.
As for the future of oil and fat, Xie Wen believes that under the background of rapeseed, rapeseed oil and high base difference, rapeseed oil prices are boosted by funds or maintain a strong trend, while soybean oil and palm oil fluctuate upward due to rapeseed oil prices. Shi Lihong believes that in view of the current lack of data falsification and a serious reduction in production, short-term funds and sentiment may push palm oil prices to a higher level. Even so, the market is close to the "fishtail" market, and there is limited room for palm oil prices to continue to rise. If the producing area can not maintain strong prices, then even the market can not escape the risk of adjustment, especially in recent days more positions, speculative capital influx of cases, from the top may only be a negative data release.
Soda ash fell to the limit, glass night market rose 3%.
Soda ash futures 2009 contracts fell by the limit on Monday, while night glass futures rose 3 per cent last night. Guotai Junan Futures analyst Zhang Chi told Futures Daily that in fact, the core factor of soda ash futures falling limit is that soda ash itself high production, high inventory, high water problem has been continuing. "High production, high inventory led to soda ash spot prices have been relatively weak, factory prices have been caught in industry-wide losses, but production has not continued to decline sharply." Zhang Chi said.
It is reported that soda ash futures than the spot price is still 60 yuan / ton higher than the mainstream delivery price after falling the limit. Buy soda spot, empty soda futures have become the mainstream arbitrage model in the market this year. Soda ash disk warehouse receipt pressure is greater, the future futures disk delivery will face the loss of transportation costs. The previous overvaluation pattern of soda ash futures in pricing is constantly being revised at this stage.
It is worth noting that at present, the spot inventory of soda ash is gradually declining, and the spot price of soda ash has basically reached the bottom. "in terms of arbitrage, a large amount of money in the market began to participate in the arbitrage of pure alkali empty glass based on the high profits of glass. However, due to the huge differences in supply and demand pattern and valuation between glass and soda ash, glass continues to be stronger than soda ash. The recent forced closing of glass positions in soda ash is also an important factor in the weakness of the soda market. " Zhang Chi said.
The "elevator" market has come to an end, and the oil price has entered a correction period.
On Monday, the center of gravity of crude oil futures shifted downward, leading to the weakening of energy varieties. Among them, fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil follow, methanol weakens. Analysts believe that there are two main reasons for the weakening of energy varieties: one is the weakening of macro marginal drive and the decline of industrial product prices; the other is the logic of profit contraction under the high profits of the industrial chain.
"the whole variety of energy and chemical plate is still differentiated, in which LPG and asphalt are strong, fuel oil and methanol are weak, PP and plastics are adjusted at a high level, but there are two points to pay attention to: first, the larger liquid chemical inventory still puts pressure on the relevant varieties, especially methanol performance; second, higher processing profits have the need to repair, such as PP, plastics, so the periodic trend is weak." Everbright Futures Energy Chemical Director Zhong Meiyan said.
Crude oil is facing a pullback recently. On July 15th, OPEC+ members agreed to cut their commitment to cut production by 9.7 million b / d, which has been in place since May, and planned to reduce production by 7.7 million b / d by December. At the same time, the countries with poor implementation of OPEC+ production reduction agreed to a compensatory production reduction of 842000 b / d from August to September, resulting in a marginal increase of 1.15 million b / d in OPEC+ production since August.
Zhong Meiyan believes that with the rise in oil prices, shale oil production has not rebounded as fast as expected. on the one hand, there is inertia in industry clearing and capacity withdrawal; on the other hand, the constraints of pipeline transportation capacity caused by environmentally friendly crude oil also inhibit the rapid recovery of shale oil production. The overall level of supply has risen month-on-month, which needs to test the ability of demand to recover further.
The reporter found that the demand side depends on two main factors, the epidemic and inventory. From the perspective of the epidemic, overseas outbreaks are still continuing, with a total of more than 14.36 million confirmed cases abroad, including more than 3.83 million in the United States, more than 2.07 million in Brazil, and more than 1.07 million in India. In some states of the United States, the resumption of the epidemic has been delayed for fear of a second outbreak. And the possibility of the spread and mutation of the virus is always a hidden worry for the subsequent demand to be suppressed. In addition, the US government requires domestic hospitals to directly "overstep" the information related to the new crown epidemic to the Federal Department of Health and Human Services from July 15, instead of reporting it through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, raising concerns among US public health experts about the further politicization of domestic epidemic data. In terms of inventory, the pace of crude oil destocking is not consistent. Last week, 7.49 million barrels were removed, and gasoline stocks totaled 248.535 million barrels, down 3.15 million barrels from the previous week. Distillate stocks were 176.809 million barrels, down 450000 barrels from the previous week. Destocking was caused by a sharp drop in US crude oil imports in a week, and gasoline inventories fell back to high levels during the seasonal peak gasoline consumption season, but there was still pressure later.
Zhong Meiyan believes that in terms of prices and price spreads, macro risk appetite increases, and oil prices are linked with the US stock market. Recently, it is worth noting that Asian floating positions are at a high level, and from the point of view of SC, warehouse receipts continue to increase to 39114000 barrels, so from a market point of view, the pressure on SC to deliver warehouse receipts is still large, and the trend will be weaker than that of outer contracts. In addition, oil prices have been blocked in stages, with WTI at US $41 and Brent at US $45, and oil prices still seem easy to fall but difficult to rise despite being driven by multiple interests last week. Macro upward drive weakens, oil price supply and demand is expected to weaken, it is difficult to support further upward oil prices, so we think there is downward pressure on oil prices. Strategically, SC mainly tests the air.
The general callback of black varieties is still unable to confirm the change of direction.
On Monday, the correction of black varieties was mainly affected by the weakening market sentiment, and it is still impossible to confirm the change of direction.
Citic Construction Investment Futures Iron Ore Zhao Yongjun told reporters that there are signs of gradual improvement in the fundamentals of rebar supply and demand. Production has declined for two weeks in a row, and the reduction areas are mainly concentrated in southwest, central, southern and eastern China, which is related to the sluggish consumption caused by the impact of the early rainy season in these areas. However, judging from the current profit of per ton steel in the long and short process, the subsequent production reduction is not large, and the rebar output will still maintain a high yield of 3.8 million tons per week. From the point of view of sales, the average daily turnover of construction steel has returned to 200000 tons, or even lower than the low level of 200000 tons. In addition, the direct delivery of steel mills has rebounded to a certain extent, but the overall sales are not volume. As the Meiyu season in major areas of the country is coming to an end, when the terminal demand for rebar will recover and the impact of the subsequent high temperature weather on demand will determine the evolution of prices.
It is worth noting that the iron ore demand side is still high, although the rebar profit is relatively poor, but the hot coil profit is good, hot metal may exist the phenomenon of inter-variety conversion. At present, it is difficult to significantly reduce the production of hot metal in this state, and the demand for iron ore is still guaranteed, but the output of iron ore basically peaked and the demand for iron ore is difficult to increase. On the supply side, Australian iron ore shipments fell seasonally after June impulse, but the decline was basically within expectations. The trend of continued recovery of iron ore supply in Brazil has not been broken. In addition, the overall arrival volume is high, the number of ships superimposed on the port is very high, and the port inventory will continue to accumulate slowly. The fundamentals of iron ore supply and demand are gradually loosening.
Since July, coke stopped the rising momentum, increased the sixth round, and began to lower the ex-factory price of coke in July. Today, individual steel mills in Shanxi have reduced the third round of 50 yuan / ton, and other steel mills also have the intention to follow suit. At this stage, the high coke inventory of steel mills superimposed intermediate speculative trade demand is mainly waiting to see the market for the time being.
"Steel enterprises still have a strong say on coke prices, coke enterprises have a high and stable start, coke supply is slightly abundant, coke enterprises have inventory in varying degrees or the pace of shipment is significantly slower than in the previous period, and the coke market shows a weak pattern in the short term." Liu Yanjun, director of Fenwei Energy Price Center, said.
Zhao Yongjun believes that the combination of wood and raw materials at both ends, how the terminal demand after the rainy season will determine the overall strength of the black system. If August demand remains at July levels or slightly higher, a sharp correction in black is more likely. However, if demand recovers quickly in August and the apparent consumption of rebar reaches 4.2 million tons or more, profits per ton of rebar will expand, prices will rise further, and raw materials will rise, but not as much as threads.
In the past two months, with the strict import policy and restrictions on coal pipe tickets in Ordos, the supply has shrunk obviously, and the price of thermal coal has risen strongly as the downstream power plants meet the summer replenishment. Qianhai Futures Tudi believes that at present, the overall production and marketing of Shanxi is stable, and the prices of some coal mines in Yulin are slightly loosened due to increased production and weak operation. The restrictions on coal pipe tickets in Ordos are still strict, and the current operating rate is still less than 70%. The year-on-year decline is 4%, and there is a phenomenon of cars and other coal in the mine, but the price is mainly stable.
It is understood that the national raw coal output in June was 334.28 million tons, down 1.2 percent from the same period last year, or 1.1 percent more than in May, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on July 16. Under the restrictions of coal management tickets, it is impossible to overproduce, and the supply reduction beyond the approved capacity is also more than 10 million tons. At the closed summer meeting in July, after the superiors put forward the requirements of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, the output of the sample enterprises increased month-on-month in the first half of the month, but there was no substantial change as a whole.
In terms of imports, data released by the General Administration of Customs on July 14 show that from January to June, the country imported 173.991 million tons of coal, an increase of 12.7 percent over the same period last year. Among them, in June alone, the country imported 25.286 million tons of coal, down 6.69 percent from the same period last year. At present, the import policy is still strict, customs clearance is blocked, and more than 5 million tons of coal are stranded in important ports.
Beijing Port inventory slowly accumulated, thermal coal prices close to the red zone, the market policy loosened expectations, and Shenhua began to open the market coal sales, improve the long Association's exchange rate, traders increased enthusiasm for shipment, coupled with the temporary weakness of downstream demand, the port trading mood began to fade.
"the contract price of thermal coal in September expanded the range of callback after the failure of continuous trial rebound last week, the shape of M head was basically formed, the short-term price trend or weakening, below or continue to test the support performance near 540. However, we are not overly optimistic about the extent of the price decline, and the main supporting factor is still import restrictions. " Wang Xiaonan, a thermal coal researcher in Baocheng Futures, believes that the spot price of thermal coal is close to the red range, but the supply-side policy is still strict, and the market is in a stalemate. The recent concentrated rainfall and the accumulation of power plant inventory led to a decline in short-term procurement demand, coupled with the existence of policy loosening expectations in the summer supply environment, thermal coal port prices weakened. However, the 2009 contract discount range is too large, and after the end of Meiyu will enter the peak season of electricity consumption, the futures market has a certain support.
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