On July 20th, the 2020 China Ni-Cr stainless Steel Industry Market and Application Development Forum held by SMM came to a successful conclusion. Focusing on the main theme of high-quality development of stainless steel industry, the conference gathered raw material suppliers, stainless steel manufacturers, downstream terminals, traders and investment and financing colleagues in various fields to analyze the market development prospects in depth.
Liu Yuqiao, senior nickel analyst at SMM, analyzed the Ni-Cr stainless steel industry chain:
It is expected that both nickel and stainless steel prices have wide volatility, ferrochromium prices are relatively stable, and the price center of gravity in the second half of the year is higher than that in the first half of the year. From the quarterly balance table, with the increase in the amount of ferronickel returned to Indonesia, the domestic primary nickel supply and demand balance gradually tends to be loose, but it will not be worse than in the first quarter; in addition, most of the excess range is still dominated by nickel pig iron imports. the actual performance of nickel price also needs to consider the impact of macro factors on the environment of pure nickel consumption.
In terms of stainless steel, the trend of going to the warehouse has slowed down, and the market has re-entered a small surplus situation. After the domestic epidemic, the downstream replenishment demand supports the high and downward inventory, while after the replenishment dividend, the supply continues to exceed demand under the existing domestic demand situation, and the subsequent stainless steel inventory or stop reducing the warehouse even appears the situation of base warehouse. Under the pressure of high inventory and low profit, the stable production of steel mills in the second half of the year will depend on the sustained low price of raw materials. Under the condition that the raw materials of nickel pig iron are sufficient, the steel mill is more likely to maintain normal operation.
SMM: Nickel and stainless Steel prices have wide volatility space. The center of gravity in the second half of the year is higher than that in the first half of the year as a whole.
Zhang Lingying, a senior analyst at SMM, analyzed the nickel mine and nickel pig iron market:
China's NPI production is expected to grow to 580000 nickel tons in 2019, with the decline of high profits and environmental impact, superimposed by the increase in the release of new capacity, a year-on-year growth rate of 28%. After Indonesia's mining ban took effect in 2020, China's NPI fell into the plight of raw material shortage. Based on the current capacity survey, it is estimated that China's NPI production will drop sharply to 490000 nickel tons, and China's NPI production is expected to have a negative growth in 2020.
In terms of nickel ore, without considering the reserve demand, there will be a surplus of 56000 tons of nickel ore at the end of 2020 in China. However, the Philippines has a low shipment volume affected by the rainy season from November to April next year, which is difficult to meet the reserve demand of domestic iron mills. It is expected that there will be a large-scale production reduction in domestic iron mills in early 2021. The initial clearance of domestic production capacity has gradually begun in the second quarter, but a large number of new production capacity has been released in the third and fourth quarter, and the volume and speed of domestic ironworks are not as fast as those put into production, and the annual output decline is limited.
"[summit] by the end of the year, the surplus of high-nickel pig iron in SMM: will reach 38000 nickel tons. It is difficult for prices to rise in the third and fourth quarters.
Yu Wen, a senior analyst at SMM, analyzed and prospected the chromite market:
The supply and demand pattern of high-carbon ferrochromium is expected to improve significantly by the end of 2020, and the output of downstream stainless steel has increased significantly since April. In that month, the operating rate of domestic high-carbon ferrochromium was only 48.6%. On March 26, due to the national blockade imposed by South Africa and other countries due to the epidemic, the supply of imported ferrochrome and chromite decreased by more than 20% compared with the same period last year, and the South African government expects to enter the outbreak period in September, when South Africa's chromite and chromite supply may be under pressure again. High-carbon ferrochromium under the influence of the epidemic, SMM believes that domestic production of high-carbon ferrochromium and imported ferrochromium showed negative growth in 2020, and the supply of high-carbon ferrochromium was in short supply at the end of the year, which was 213400 tons per month, significantly repairing the structure of oversupply in 2019.
[summit] the supply and demand pattern of SMM: high-carbon ferrochromium is expected to improve significantly by the end of the year.
SMM senior analyst Li Chuntian stainless steel industry chain supply and demand pattern and price analysis:
From the raw material point of view, the current use of nickel raw materials in stainless steel plants, high nickel iron accounts for a relatively large proportion, while the supply of iron nickel is expected to be loose in 2020, and it is difficult for prices to strengthen in the third and fourth quarters, but due to the support of mineral prices, the weakening range of high nickel iron prices is limited, and high nickel iron prices are vulnerable to shock operation; high carbon ferrochromium prices are expected to show a slight downward trend in the second half of the year due to the impact of the high level of chromium ore, so the domestic stainless steel cost may show a certain decline.
On the supply and demand side, in the second quarter, some steel mills resumed production, and domestic stainless steel production gradually increased; Indonesian stainless steel production accelerated, and the return quantity increased gradually, and stainless steel supply increased; and after the concentrated outbreak in March, the demand side gradually returned to dull, the demand growth rate was not as fast as supply, and the supply was still in a loose state in the second half of the year. Overall, she said that in the second half of 2020, under the condition of loose supply of stainless steel, the price is still cost-supported and demand-driven, and the price range of cold-rolled stainless steel is expected to run in the range of 12800 Mel 14000 yuan / ton.
[summit] SMM: is expected to have a loose supply of stainless steel in the second half of the year. Domestic stainless steel cost may decline to some extent.
Song Quanming, the chief representative of the International Nickel Association in China, explained the application of nickel to promote green and sustainable development, and made a comprehensive summary of the detailed data of global nickel and stainless steel resource distribution, output and application fields.
Stainless steel is the largest market for nickel, accounting for 70 per cent, he said. Batteries are still an important area and are developing rapidly. China offers high growth opportunities in all areas; the growth rate represents a high level of understanding of sector opportunities in all regions and therefore needs to be combined with country-specific megatrends.
"[summit practical information] data summary of global nickel and stainless steel resource distribution, output and application fields
Teng Shouqiang, Chief of Technical quality Section of stainless Steel Branch of Hongxing Co., Ltd., Jiuquan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd.
He said that Hongxing Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Jiuquan Iron and Steel Group, was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on December 20, 2000. Now it has complete production process of carbon steel and stainless steel from mining, mineral processing, sintering, coking to ironmaking, steelmaking, hot rolling, cold rolling and so on. The complete production capacity of carbon steel hot rolling line, bar, plate, cold rolled galvanized and stainless steel, coating materials and functional materials has been formed, and the product quality has reached the domestic advanced level.
"A list of the process flow chart of 1 million tons of stainless steel products of Jiuquan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd.
Liang Juxing, an expert on stainless steel car body of CRRC Nanjing Puzhen vehicle Co., Ltd., explained the application status of stainless steel car body of urban rail vehicles, and looked forward to the future development.
In the face of increasingly stringent energy conservation and emission reduction requirements, high-speed, energy-saving, safety, comfort and environmental protection have become the development direction in the field of transportation. As the key technology of green energy saving, lightweight will be the inevitable trend of the development of transportation equipment. At present, the domestic stainless steel roll bending part is a single plate thickness roll bending technology. If the roll bending technology with complex cross-section and variable cross-section can be developed, it will be of great help to the lightweight of car body structure. Strengthen the fusion of stainless steel and composite materials. Develop a new structure of structural lightweight composite materials.
Liang Juxing: application status and Prospect of stainless Steel car body of Urban Rail vehicles
Guo Litao, head of the Manufacturing Department of Shandong Guanzhou Co., Ltd., gave a speech on the development trend of stainless steel in building roofs and curtain walls.
In terms of Shandong Guanzhou cold rolling production line, Guanzhou has two five-stand continuous rolling mills and two six-high reversing mills with a production specification range of 0.15~2.0*750~1500mm. The production line is equipped with automatic laser welding machine, flatness meter, laser tachometer and thickness meter. With thickness automatic control system, shape automatic control system, secondary automatic control system, can produce high-strength, deep drawing products, the products have accurate size, good shape and surface quality.
[summit] the development trend of stainless steel in building roofs and curtain walls
Hou Liang, sales Minister of Tianjin Youfa stainless Steel Pipe Co., Ltd. said that the promotion of stainless steel pipes is going on steadily and explosive growth is just around the corner!
At present, stainless steel pipes account for only 1% of China's water supply system, and it is estimated that within the next decade, 70% of drinking water pipes will become stainless steel pipes. Stainless steel pipe has become the first choice in the fields of water supply and drainage, fire fighting, gas and so on. With the popularization of stainless steel in residential pipe, the demand for stainless steel pipe will show explosive growth in the future. The amount of stainless steel replaced in stainless steel pipes in the next decade or so is 14.448 million tons.
[summit] the promotion of stainless steel pipes and steady explosive growth is just around the corner.
Feng Hang, general manager of Henan Getian Renewable Resources Co., Ltd., analyzed the situation and problems of China's scrap market.
Policy issues: high policy threshold; lack of unity; low proportion of subsidies; policy benefits are difficult.
Tax problems: renewable resources recovery enterprises are difficult to obtain value-added tax deduction, resulting in their tax burden is too heavy; the tax preference of renewable resources processing link is not strong, difficult to implement, and the number of enterprises that can enjoy preferential treatment is limited; the tax preference of renewable resources processing link is difficult to transmit to the formal enterprises in the recovery link, which leads to "bad enterprises expel good enterprises"; The unreasonable design of tax policy leads to the high cost of recycling of renewable resources, which aggravates the consumption of primary resources and the problem of enterprise income tax.
Standardization problems: quality standardization; penalty standardization; product standardization. Trade problems: unstable contract; asymmetric payment; long settlement cycle; high financial pressure.
[summit] the situation and problems of China's scrap market
At this point, the meeting came to a successful conclusion!
Thank you for your support and attention. See you at the next session!
Live report: SMM News Group
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