SMM7 March 17: today, the two-day "2020 China (Yingtan) Copper Industry Summit Forum and the 15th China International Copper Industry chain Summit" came to a successful conclusion in Shanghai. During the meeting, macroeconomists, industry / association experts, university professors, corporate bigwigs and senior analysts conducted an in-depth and comprehensive review of the global economic situation and the copper industry chain. At the scene, more than 800 upstream and downstream enterprises of the copper industry from all over the country held face-to-face negotiations to find supply and demand resources and expand new markets.
Li Xinmin, an inspector of the pollution Prevention and Control Department of the former Ministry of Environmental Protection, brought a speech on the theme of "the implementation of the new solid waste law, the impact on the non-ferrous industry and the requirements of enterprise management." The Law on the Prevention and Control of Environmental pollution by solid waste has the following remarkable characteristics: adhere to the problem orientation, respond to concerns, and clarify responsibilities; improve the long-term mechanism for the long-term prevention and control of environmental pollution by solid waste; add and improve a number of management systems for the prevention and control of environmental pollution caused by industrial solid waste; implement the strictest legal liability. In the production process, non-ferrous metals consume a lot of mineral resources, energy and water resources, resulting in a large amount of solid waste, waste water and waste gas; in 2006, the mining volume of non-ferrous metals is about 160 million tons, resulting in about 120 million tons of tailings, 7 million tons of red mud, 7.66 million tons of slag, more than 2.3 million tons of SO2 and 270 million tons of waste water. At present, there is still a gap between domestic resource utilization technology and harmless advanced treatment technology and the international advanced level, and the utilization rate of solid waste is about 13%. The recycled metal industry is an important part of China's non-ferrous metals industry. The output of recycled copper, aluminum, lead and zinc reached 14.37 million tons in 2019. Compared with the production of the same amount of primary metals, it can save 16.41 million tons of standard coal, save 1.98 billion cubic meters of water and reduce the production of solid waste by 1.72 billion tons.
"[Copper Summit] the impact of the implementation of the new solid waste law on the non-ferrous industry and the requirements of enterprise management
Zhang Liqun, a researcher from the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, gave a speech on "2020 Global Economic situation and domestic Macro Policy Analysis". At present, the growth of the world economy continues to slow down, and it is still in a period of deep adjustment of the international financial crisis. The characteristics of the accelerated evolution of the great changes in the world are more obvious, and the sources of global instability and risk points have increased significantly. The growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to increase significantly this year, the real estate market will continue to pick up gradually, and real estate investment is expected to decline and stabilize. The overall growth rate of investment has increased significantly. Demand tightening leads to a continuous decline in economic growth, which continuously strengthens the endogenous downward pressure on the economy, and demand tightening leads to a further decline in economic growth. It is expected that the GDP growth rate will increase to more than 8% in the third / fourth quarter of this year, and the economic growth rate for the whole year will reach more than 4 On the premise of firmly implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand, it is expected that China's economy will enter a relatively rapid rebound track supported by the full recovery of market demand. on this basis, China's economic growth is expected to reach about 8% in 2021. From then on, China's economy will enter a new growth cycle.
Li Chong, secretary-general of China sulphuric acid industry association, brought a speech with the theme of "the impact of the pressure of sulphuric acid expansion reservoir on the whole smelting industry and its future development direction". According to the statistics of the association, by the end of 2019, China's total sulphuric acid production capacity was 124 million tons, up 2.1% from the same period last year, of which sulphur sulphuric acid production capacity was 53.17 million tons, down 1.1% from the same period last year; smelting acid production capacity was 44.09 million tons, up 6.2% from the same period last year; and pyrite sulphuric acid production capacity was 23.53 million tons, up 1.0% from the same period last year. In 2019, China's new sulfuric acid production capacity reached 8.68 million tons; from 2019 to 2023, China's newly built smelting acid production capacity totaled 23.08 million tons, of which smelting acid was 19.17 million tons, accounting for 83 percent; sulfur sulfonic acid production was 2.76 million tons; and pyrite acid production was 1 million tons. According to the statistics of the association, the total output of sulfuric acid in 2019 is 97.36 million tons, another all-time high, up 0.5% from the same period last year. Of this total, sulfuric acid production from sulfur was 41.65 million tons, down 6.0% from the same period last year; smelting acid output was 37.39 million tons, up 7.0% from the same period last year, maintaining a continuous growth trend in the past 20 years; and pyrite sulphuric acid production was 16.84 million tons, up 1.9% from the same period last year. According to the statistics of the association, the average operating rate of China's sulphuric acid industry in 2019 is 78.8%, down 0.9 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of sulphuric acid production from pyrite was 71.6 percent, up 0.7 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of sulphur sulphuric acid production was 78.3 percent, down 4.1 percentage points from the same period last year; and the operating rate of smelting acid was 84.8 percent, up 0.6 percentage points from the same period last year. According to the statistics of the association, China's apparent sulphuric acid consumption in 2019 was 95.72 million tons, down 0.8% from the same period last year, showing a small negative growth for three consecutive years, which further confirmed that China's sulphuric acid consumption has entered a plateau. The price of sulfuric acid in China dropped sharply in 2019. The national average price of sulfuric acid was 340 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year and dropped to 150 yuan / ton at the end of the year. Serious overcapacity and weak downstream demand are the main reasons for the price decline. China's sulphuric acid exports continued to enlarge in 2019. According to customs statistics, China's total exports of sulfuric acid in 2019 totaled 2.175 million tons, up 69.8 percent from the same period last year, and continued to reach a record high again; the average export price was 46.2US dollars per ton, down 7.2 per cent from the same period last year. The amount of imported acid will continue to decline; imported acid is mainly in South Korea, except in special cases, Japanese acid will not enter the Chinese market. China's smelting acid production is growing rapidly, and domestic smelting acid has a demand for export. The international price of sulfuric acid declined in 2020, which made it more difficult to export. From the perspective of export sulphuric acid production enterprises, potential export enterprises also include enterprises from Shandong and Hubei.
[copper Summit] Review and Analysis of sulphuric Acid production capacity, output, consumption, Import and Export in China
Hu Jian, vice president of SMM, delivered a speech on the theme of "Global Copper concentrate Market in the Post-epidemic era". It is mainly carried out from three aspects: the supply and trend of global copper concentrate market, the cost and evolution of global copper concentrate, and China's overseas copper investment. The world's copper reserves are 870 million tons, mainly distributed in Chile, Australia, Peru, Russia, Mexico and the United States. Its copper reserves account for about 62 per cent of the world's total reserves, while China's copper resources are scarce, accounting for only 3 per cent of the world's reserves. Between 2020 and 2021, the world is expected to add 1.39 million metal tons of copper concentrate capacity, mainly in Indonesia and China, accounting for 45 per cent of the total. The overseas epidemic continues to spread, economic operation is blocked, the process of projects under construction slows, and in response to the decline in income, some mining companies began to cut capital expenditure, affecting the supply of medium-and long-term copper mines. Compared with overseas copper mines, the domestic copper mine supply is not much affected by the epidemic, and the domestic copper mine output is expected to increase by about 70,000 tons in 2020.
SMM Analysis of [Copper Summit]: global Copper production, cost and Evolution under the epidemic, overseas Copper Investment Route
Li Shilong, chairman of the technological Innovation Strategic Alliance of China's renewable resources industry, brought a speech on the theme of "the policy of renewable copper resources will implement the waste copper industry to meet the change in 2020". The outbreak of the epidemic after the Spring Festival in 2020 has had a certain impact on the production and life of all walks of life in China; in particular, restrictions have been implemented in the three-industry service industries, such as transportation, aviation, tourism, restaurants, schools, factories and so on, such as transportation, aviation, tourism, restaurants, schools, factories and other densely populated areas. At the end of the Spring Festival, there was a phenomenon of low copper prices and weak work resumption. some recycled copper enterprises had a panic attitude to the trend of the recycled copper industry, and the bosses of the enterprises had disorderly opinions on the prediction and judgment of the later period of recycled copper. Due to the continuous and stable production, enhanced the confidence of the enterprise's own development, the continuous improvement of the operating rate, the shortage of resources in the recycled copper market, rising prices, and the enterprise mentality tends to be loose. The problems exposed by the recycled copper industry are as follows: low degree of raw material protection; poor anti-risk ability; lack of professional and standardized recovery system; enterprise financing difficulties, weak risk hedging ability; single product structure, low profit margin and weak bargaining power. Prospect: the state will pay more attention to the recycled copper industry, national and local policies, financial support will be good for the development of recycled copper industry, the combination of recycled copper industry and "new infrastructure" will become a development trend.
Yao Dawei, the person in charge of the major copper alloy project and chief engineer of the Shanghai Cable Institute, made a speech on "the development and application of ultra-fine copper alloy conductors." In 2017, China's copper demand was 13368000 tons, accounting for 47% of the world's copper consumption. In 2017, the demand for copper in China's transportation sector is about 1.7 million tons, of which 56% is used in the manufacture of automotive electrical and non-electrical components. In 2018, China's production of new energy vehicles increased by 60% compared with 2017. High-performance copper alloy microwire is not only the key basic material for the development of optoelectronics, microelectronics, aviation, aerospace and other high-tech fields, but also an important support for the development of advanced equipment and information technology in China. High-performance micro-wire precision production technology is a deficiency of related industries in China. Technological breakthroughs can produce huge social value and economic benefits, contribute to the great-leap-forward development of the next generation of LED, IC chips, large aircraft and manned spaceflight, and stimulate the product market on a scale of 10 billion. High-performance copper alloy products are among the key products in the 13th five-year Development Plan of China's new material industry. According to the national strategic material development goal of the 13th five-year Plan, by the end of the 13th five-year Plan, more than 100 key strategic materials urgently needed by China's economic development should be fully localized, and the comprehensive support capacity of key strategic materials should exceed 70%. The volume of China's copper processing industry accounts for 60% of the world's production capacity, but high-end products still mainly rely on imports. At present, China has not fully solved the large-length, continuous, ultra-pure alloy billet batch preparation technology. Ultra-fine wire drawing technology and ultra-thin precision rolling technology must be realized by advanced equipment, and various advanced control means must be adopted to achieve the predetermined processing quality and the purpose of efficient and low-cost production.
[copper Summit] Development trend of Copper conductor Wire requirements and Technical specifications for High performance Copper Alloy Micro-wires
Li Zhou, dean of the School of Materials Science and Engineering of Central South University, gave a speech on "5G link technology and high-performance copper alloy materials". The essence of 5G is a kind of connection technology, which has the characteristics of one high (high reliability), two low (low power consumption, low delay) and three (large capacity, large coverage, Dalian connection). It connects not only people and people, people and computers, people and things, machines and things, but also a variety of applications. 5G enabled block chain, artificial intelligence, big data and other technologies, to achieve a further deep integration of technology applications. Printed circuit board (Printed Circuit Board,PCB), PCB/ copper clad laminate is the key component to support the development of 5G technology. It is a collection of systems carried by each electronic product. The volume requirement of 5G integrated circuit chip is getting smaller and smaller. After the domestic lead frame material is etched, the internal stress of the plate is released and crimped seriously, and the etching flatness is difficult to meet the requirements. High-end lead frame requires high-performance copper alloy not only to have functional properties, but also to meet excellent structural characteristics.
Zhang Qiliang, founder of Jiangsu Xugong Information Technology Co., Ltd. And CEO, shared the knowledge of "industrial Internet platform enabling digital transformation of non-ferrous industry". He said that from the perspective of sales revenue, the sales revenue of China's non-ferrous alloy manufacturing industry fluctuated from 2014 to 2019, and the growth rate declined for three consecutive years. In 2018, China's non-ferrous alloy manufacturing industry achieved sales revenue of 342.041 billion yuan, down 9.4% from the same period last year. At present, China's non-ferrous alloy manufacturing industry is in the kinetic energy transformation between the new and the old, the industrial economic structure adjustment period, and the economic operation of the industry has fluctuated. From the point of view of the number of production enterprises in the industry, the enterprises in the non-ferrous alloy manufacturing industry in China have declined year after year. Enterprises are facing challenges and uncertainties, including labor shortage, broken supply chain, tight capital chain, market uncertainty, and the market can not make accurate predictions in the future. "Digital foundation is facility" is a set of common information technology supporting resources built and developed to meet the needs of the digital development of the industry, serving the comprehensive interconnection and data application of various industry elements, the whole industrial chain and the whole value chain. Realize the intelligent transformation of production and business model. In essence, it is a digital development and management support system with the industrial Internet as the core.
Ye Jianhua, chief analyst of the copper industry at SMM, made a comprehensive analysis of copper fundamentals and copper price trends in 2020. On the supply side, he said: the disruption of the global copper mine has increased significantly as a result of the epidemic, and the reduction directly caused by SMM is expected to be about 450000 metal; the impact of the epidemic is expected to slow the growth of global copper production from around 2 per cent to-0.3 per cent in 2020. Starting in the late second quarter, Chinese copper smelters face the risk of more raw material shortages, as 80 per cent of raw materials are imported. The interference of refinery maintenance on the supply of electrolytic copper production in 2020 is on the high side. According to SMM statistics, the impact of actual maintenance in the first seven months of this year is generally greater than the forecast at the beginning of the year. Under relative optimism, SMM expects China's electrolytic copper production to increase by about 160000 tons in 2020, an increase of 1.8 percent, and is expected to be 400000 tons by the end of 2019. China's output of electrolytic copper in 2019 was 8.94 million tons, an increase of 2.4 percent. Demand side: global consumption has been affected by the epidemic, and the damage abroad is greater than that at home. Aluminium, zinc, lead and nickel are all consumed more than copper and are eventually exported, making it more vulnerable to demand outside China than copper. In the first half of the year, due to the impact of the epidemic, China's manufacturing industry suffered a relatively obvious blow this year, but some areas have exceeded expectations, especially in the wire and cable sector, whose operating rate has been at a new high in recent years as a result of infrastructure construction. SMM expects copper consumption to grow by 0.88 per cent in 2020, up from 0.60 per cent in 2019. Taken together, SMM believes that the gradual repair of the global economy and abundant global liquidity have contributed to the improvement of market confidence. The improvement in fundamentals is better than expected and the macro-level resonance is better, and copper prices are bullish. Without taking into account the background of another large-scale global outbreak, domestic copper prices will climb to 56500 yuan / ton and LME6200-6800 US dollars / ton.
"[copper summit] SMM: copper prices rise ferociously, fundamentals improve or macro wind? The answer is here!
Sun Junpeng, director of the Technology Center of Xi'an Sili Advanced Copper Alloy Technology Co., Ltd., explained the key preparation technology and industrial application of the new high-performance CuFe alloy. He said that copper-iron alloy is a new type of key basic material, which has a great application prospect because of its excellent properties; it has been widely used abroad, such as Japan, South Korea and the United States, but it has not yet been applied in China, and there is a big gap. Laser 3D printing of copper-iron alloy, the Fe particle size can reach the micron level, and very uniformly distributed in the Cu matrix, and the hardness of the material is also higher than the conventional process, which fully proves that the addition manufacturing technology has revolutionary promotion and modification in copper alloy materials.
"[copper summit] preparation technology and industrial application of new high-performance copper-iron alloy
Chang Jianyong, deputy general manager of Hailongyang Precision Composite Copper Tube Co., Ltd., described the precision copper tube technology, new development and downstream demand changes. He said 40 per cent of Chinese-made air conditioners were exported and 60 per cent sold domestically. All these air conditioners use domestically produced copper tubes, and at the same time, there is also a certain amount of domestic copper tubes for export, so domestic and foreign air conditioning sales account for about half of the domestic demand for precision copper tubes. We should pay attention to the scale transfer of air conditioning and copper pipe production to Southeast Asia in the future. At present, due to the domestic complete industrial chain and sufficient technical personnel advantages, the transfer capacity is not large. Domestic air conditioning inventory fluctuates between 2000 and 50 million units every year, and every 10 million air conditioners is equivalent to about 50, 000 tons of copper tubes.
"[Copper Summit] New Progress of Precision Copper Tube Technology and downstream demand changes
Li Xue, member of the Winding Wire Sub-Standard Committee of the National Wire and Cable Standardization Technical Committee, explained the requirements of the electromagnetic wire industry for copper conductor raw materials and the future development direction of the industry. He said that in recent years, electric power construction has entered a new normal of steady growth, with the total annual output of electromagnetic lines basically maintained at about 3.3 million tons. There are about 300 large-scale enterprises in the country, and 80 enterprises with more than 10,000 tons, with a total output of 2.6 million tons. With the impact of the cost orientation of white goods, the original use of copper materials to use aluminum, such as the representative air-conditioning industry is greatly promoting aluminum tubes instead of copper tubes. At present, aluminum electromagnetic wires have been widely used in distribution transformers and office transformers, while the newly developed wind industry has been affected by cost reduction and has begun to try to use aluminum conductors. Pure copper conductor is still irreplaceable in electrical industrial products, especially in generators, power transformers, industrial motors and other application fields. Pure copper not only has low resistance, low heating and excellent thermal conductivity, but also its mechanical strength is much higher than that of aluminum, and it is easy to be treated with hardness. In the large power grid system, the anti-short-circuit ability of the power transformer affects the safety of the whole power grid, and the copper conductor is irreplaceable in mechanical properties.
"[copper summit] Copper conductor materials-applications and requirements in the field of electromagnetic wires
Guo Huimeng, director of the Technology Center of Chinalco Luoyang Copper processing Co., Ltd., explained the market situation, application prospect analysis and preparation technology application of high purity copper targets. She said that over the past decade, the global flat panel display industry has developed vigorously, and China has achieved great-leap-forward development in panel production. By 2020, the LCD panel industry has increased to more than 15 production lines, including 8.5 generation and 10 + generation lines. The development of the big generation line is bound to improve the requirements for process materials, Cu has better electrical conductivity compared to other metals such as Al, and Cu can meet the wiring requirements of larger panels under the same conditions. With the development and mass production of copper technology in panel enterprises, the demand for Cu targets increases year by year. The target industry chain mainly includes metal purification, target manufacturing, sputtering coating and terminal application. Among them, target manufacturing and sputtering coating are located in the middle reaches, which is the key link in the whole sputtering target industry chain. The national "new infrastructure" will stimulate a new round of industrial revolution, and the demand for high-performance copper and copper alloy materials is increasing continuously. as a digital display terminal for new infrastructure, the demand for panels will increase greatly, which is bound to further increase the market capacity of copper targets.
[copper Summit] Copper Target Market and Application
Scan the code and apply to join the SMM Copper Industry Exchange Group.