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"the market unexpectedly went up and fell and then plummeted. I smashed the computer in anger." even more frustrating than this is the 176 short positions close to the trading limit.
Jul 17,2020 08:36CST
translation
Source:Futures daily
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM Network News: the market unexpectedly fell high and plummeted. I smashed the computer in anger and took it for maintenance.

The repairman asked, "is there something wrong with the motherboard?"

I said, "Yes, is there nothing wrong with the gem?"

The master's eyes moistened instantly, and he held my hand tightly and said, "Little comrade, I've been waiting for you. Which part are you from?"

I said excitedly: "3288 hillside troops." What about you? "

The master said with tears streaming down his face, "3587 advance team at the top of the mountain."

At this time, the takeout uncle passed by and said earnestly: "in the current A-share market, as long as you want to get out of the car and pee, you will be mercilessly left behind by the wheel of history, because this is a high-speed rail."

"did you get out of the car?" The master asked the uncle.

Yesterday afternoon, a person in the industry told the reporter such a joke. I believe many investors laughed and cried when they saw it.

Although data released by the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday showed a marked improvement in the economy in the second quarter, A shares closed down across the board under the influence of their own factors, with all three major stock indexes falling the biggest one-day decline in more than five months. Accordingly, stock index futures also fell at the same time, with CSI 300, SSE 50 and CSI 500 all down more than 5%. Under such circumstances, where will A shares go in the future?

The Shanghai Composite Index tumbled more than 100 points in a single day.

On July 16, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fell unilaterally, and by the end of the day, the three major stock indexes all closed down sharply. Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 4.5% at 3210.1 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index fell 5.37% to 12996.34 points, and the gem Index fell 5.93% to 2646.26 points. In addition, it is worth noting that the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen more than 200 points in the last three trading days.

In terms of stock index futures, the July contracts of Shanghai 50, CSI 300 and CSI 500 fell 5.26%, 5.82% and 5.62%, respectively.

According to the Futures Daily reporter, in terms of index performance alone, yesterday's adjustment was undoubtedly relatively tragic, especially the phenomenon that Prev fell more than 100 points in a single day is rare in history. In fact, the relevant data show that in the past five years, the Prev has fallen by more than 100 points a day for 30 times, nearly half of which occurred during the 2015 adjustment period. Since 2018, the Prev has fallen more than 100 points in a single day for 10 times. Among them, the most recent collapse of more than 100 points in the Prev occurred in February this year, mainly due to the temporary distortion of the market caused by the outbreak of the new crown epidemic.

As for the deep correction of A shares on Thursday, Zhao Xiaoxia, manager of Green Dahua Futures Finance Research Center, believes that it is the result of a combination of multiple factors. "first of all, there is a short-term overheating in the market recently, and there is a demand for adjustment. Secondly, the management also intends to cool the market. Recently, the regulatory authorities have issued a speech to crack down on illegal and illegal over-the-counter capital allocation and strictly prohibit banks and insurance from participating in over-the-counter capital allocation in violation of regulations. Finally, the better-than-expected economic data in the second quarter also raised concerns that policy and liquidity could gradually tighten in the later period. " Zhao Xiaoxia told Futures Daily.

Wang Mengying, an analyst at South China Futures Stock Index Futures, added that excessive profits were also one of the reasons for the sharp decline in A-shares on Thursday.

It is understood that SMIC landing Kechuang board has been one of the important logic of the recent strengthening of technology stocks. Yesterday, SMIC officially landed on the Kochuang board, equivalent to more profits, the early strong chip stocks fell, coupled with the sharp fall of blue chips, market sentiment turned to caution, the decline deepened.

"but this does not mean that A-shares have peaked." Zhao Xiaoxia, the main driving force of this rally is abundant liquidity plus economic recovery. although the economy is improving at the margin, there is still a gap from the normal level. under such circumstances, liquidity will remain relatively abundant on the whole, which provides some support for the market to continue to rise.

In particular, the economic data released on July 16 show that after being hit hard by the epidemic, China's economy has been repaired to a great extent and is ahead of other economies in time, and the long-term trend of China's economy for the better has not changed. "and this probability will be further reflected in the capital markets." The macro researcher of the Galaxy Futures Research Institute said: in addition, from a structural point of view, the larger declines on the day are the science and technology board and the growth enterprise board, which have risen a lot in the recent stage. however, the financial industry, represented by brokerage stocks, has shown a certain degree of resilience. "under such circumstances, we continue to be optimistic about the opportunities for financial supply-side reform under the conditions of financial markets and services opening up."

For the future trend, market participants believe that there is no need to worry too much.

In fact, although the Prev rose and fell the next day after falling more than 100 points a day in 2015, statistics after 2016 show that the Prev rose more times the next day after falling more than 100 points a day, according to data from the Financial Associated Press.

Under such circumstances, Zhao Xiaoxia suggested that investors in stock index futures should pay attention to risk control in operation and use low positions to respond to market fluctuations. At present, the most appropriate strategy is still long stock index futures bargain.

The far-month contract of Shanghai 50 stock index futures is now suspected to be an "own" situation.

It is worth mentioning that yesterday in the Shanghai 50 stock index futures 2012 contract also appeared suspected "own" situation.

It is understood that at 13:29:25 yesterday, there were 176lots traded in the Shanghai 50 stock index futures 2012 contract close to the falling limit of 2988.4 points, and then the transaction price quickly returned to the previous 3190 points.

The trading price of these 176hands deviates from the transaction price before and after 201.6 points. calculated at a point of 300 yuan, the maximum floating loss of these 176hands may exceed 10.64 million yuan.

Stock index futures have appeared suspected "own" situation many times. On February 10 this year, the IC2006 contract suddenly traded hundreds of hands with an increase in the limit price, with a maximum floating loss of about 14.67 million yuan in the first second.

In addition, IC1706, IF1909 and other contracts have also accidentally hit the limit. For example, on March 17, 2017, IC1706 contracts rose by the daily limit in early trading, with 9419 oversized orders closed at a price of 6939.6, almost directly pushing the index to the limit and then falling back after nearly half a minute.

As for the reasons for the "own" transaction, industry insiders believe that on the one hand, it is related to the setting of some trading software. In the case of not supporting the market price order, some software developers will replace the market price order setting with the price limit, so that all varieties can be used (to avoid some varieties are available for market order and some are not available). In the case of a sharp fall in the market, long stop loss orders trigger market entrustment, in addition, some people specially set up fishing orders near the price limit, leading to this abnormal trading situation. On the other hand, it may be simply because the trader placed the wrong order.

Jiang Xianhui, an analyst at Huishang Futures Index, told reporters that the main reason may still be the problem of market liquidity. "in fact, yesterday's suspected 'oolong' trading is most likely caused by a large number of crowded selling orders triggering stop-loss condition orders in the falling market," Jiang Xianhui, an analyst at Huishang Futures Index, told reporters.

"after all, yesterday, in the case of more profits, negative benefits, and market sentiment gradually cautious, the market fluctuated violently and investors left the market quickly. Coupled with the lack of liquidity of IH2012 contracts to promote the expansion of trading slippage, the 'oolong' situation is more likely to occur. " Jiang Xianhui said.

However, given that "own" transactions are often accidental, it will not have a big impact on the market. Zhao Xiaoxia advises investors to pay more attention to the changes in the macro and market aspects, control their positions and make risk hedging plans.

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