Review on spot Trading Day of SMM basic Metals on July 16th

Copper: today, Apanlon copper opened higher at US $6404 / ton, while Panculun copper dived downwards. After the opening of trading in Shanghai Copper, the market accelerated to 5352.5 US dollars / ton, and then quickly rebounded to 6401 US dollars / tonne. However, due to the downward drag of crude oil, the center of gravity of copper moved down along the 6355 US dollars / ton horizontal finishing. At the end of the Asian session, short sellers concentrated in the market, Lun copper fell rapidly to explore the intraday low of 6306 US dollars / ton, found support after Lun copper rebounded upward. Entering the European session, Lun Copper continued to rise and returned to consolidation near the daily moving average. Lun Copper closed at 6341 US dollars per ton, down 53.50 US dollars per ton, or 0.84 per cent, as of 17PUR 00. The United States said it would impose sanctions on some Huawei employees, tensions between China and the United States continued to simmer, investors' worries about the market deepened, putting some pressure on copper prices. At present, Lunchu is negative and KDJ is expanding. Tonight, the number of initial jobless claims and retail data in the United States in the week ending July 11 will be released. Pay attention to the guidance of market sentiment and test whether Lunbro can hold the $6300 / ton mark.

Today, the Shanghai Copper 09 contract opened at 51230 yuan / ton in the morning. the copper price of long positions fell after opening, rebounded after exploring 50850 yuan / ton, briefly returned above 51000 yuan / ton, traded horizontally around 51300 yuan, and in the second trading session, the main force of copper in Shanghai fell again, struggling near the 51000 yuan mark, and opened in the afternoon, that is, it was hit by short positions and suppressed, and the copper price accelerated after breaking 51000 yuan, and the intraday low was 50580 yuan / ton. The short sellers left the market at the end of the day, making the disk temporarily out of the low level, and finally closed at 50710 yuan / ton, down 1780 yuan / ton, or 3.4%. During the day, 09 contracts reduced positions by 1949 to 109000, showing a long reduction in positions, while trading volume increased by 75000 to 167000. 08 contract day reduced positions by 10861 to 97000, showing a long reduction, while trading volume increased by 87000 to 234000. Copper in Shanghai fell sharply today, running below the daily moving average. Recently, tensions in Sino-US relations have further escalated. The United States said it would impose visa restrictions on specific employees of Chinese technology companies, including Huawei. Global investors are worried that trade relations between the two countries will deteriorate again and damage the economy. The plunge in A shares has dragged down the market investment sentiment and put pressure on the commodity market. Today, the commodity market turned green, and oil prices led the decline in copper prices. Today, copper in Shanghai closed negative, giving up its gains in the previous three days, and the red column of MACD shrank significantly, close to the 10-day moving average. As the fundamentals of the copper market have not changed much, pay attention to the outer disk guidelines at night to test whether Shanghai Copper can return to the 51000 yuan / ton mark.

Today, copper in Shanghai continued its overnight decline, falling more than 1,000 yuan, with a surface area of nearly 51000 yuan / ton. On the first day after the change of the spot market, the holder quoted a price of 30 yuan / ton for Pingshui copper in the morning market, and 40 yuan / ton for good copper. Traders led the morning market to buy actively, and the price of flat copper could be reduced to 20 yuan / ton, with a significant increase in consignment volume. Some downstream also entered the market to replenish stock after a continuous sharp fall. As a result, the holder quickly raised the price of Pingshui copper to 40 yuan / ton in the second trading session, but the deal was deadlocked. Trading market conditions are not as good as before, good copper is difficult to synchronize with the rise, the degree of market favor is obviously inferior to flat copper; Wet-process copper narrowed slightly to 60 yuan / ton at a discount of 70m / t, and downstream replenishment was significantly better than at the beginning of the week. Today, copper futures in Shanghai fell below the 5-day moving average and pointed to the 10-day moving average, giving up its gains after surging 5% on Monday. Traders showed renewed activity and low rising water attracted them to enter the market. If the market decline slows down, the lower reaches of the market will gradually pick up and rise, and the rising water will show a steady and firm trend before the outflow of delivery sources. After falling below 51000 yuan / ton in the afternoon, the low point was 50750 yuan / ton, and the spot quotation continued to hold steady at 40 yuan / ton of copper water in Pingshui, 50 yuan / ton of good copper water, and the transaction price dropped to 50780rel 51060 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: Lomalco opened at US $1684.5 per tonne this morning. Lomalco prices fluctuated downwards during the Asian session and recorded an intraday low of US $1656 per tonne at around 14:30, ending at US $1662 per tonne at 15: 00. In the European session, Lomalco continued its decline in late Asian trading, falling $1656 and then returning to around $1670, with performance falling first and then rising to $1664.5 / tonne as of 1715 / 31. Day K closed negative, fell below the 5-day moving average, trapped in the 5-day and 10-day moving average, is expected to continue the pressure consolidation trend in the evening to test whether it can hold the first line of $1660.

The Shanghai Aluminum 2008 contract opened at 14300 yuan / ton in the morning. Within the first hour of trading, the short sellers entered the market to break the situation of the horizontal market at night, releasing the downward signal of aluminum futures. The bulls were forced to reduce a large number of positions and leave the market, and aluminum futures prices fell all the way down. Around 14:30 in the afternoon, it fell below the Wansi mark, recording an intraday low of 13960 yuan / ton. It closed at 13970 yuan / ton at the end of the day. 08 contract day position decreased by 8419 to 129363 hands, the Shanghai Aluminum Index position decreased by 7090 to 399562 hands, the daily K closed at a long negative line, fell 3.45%, recording the biggest decline since April, the center of gravity fell below the 10-day moving average, mainly long positions during the day. From a fundamental point of view, the weakening of orders in the aluminum processing industry downstream of electrolytic aluminum and the slowdown in downstream demand reflected by the continuous narrowing of the decline in social inventory limit aluminum prices to continue to rise in early June. From a macro point of view, most of the recent stock index futures ushered in a decline, the overall macro market sentiment changes, driving the aluminum market for correction. With the continuous rise in aluminum prices and the increased willingness of bulls to leave the market, they are particularly sensitive to the downward signals released by the futures market. Bulls have left the market to avoid risk for three consecutive days. But on the other hand, SMM statistics today electrolytic aluminum social inventory of 708000 tons, is still in a low position, combined with the recent electrolytic aluminum actual transaction situation is tight, it is expected that aluminum prices downside space is limited.

Aluminum futures fluctuated and fell before noon that month. The transaction price in Wuxi and Shanghai is between 14510 Mel 14530 yuan / ton, which is 300 yuan lower than yesterday's price. The rising water to the surface is between 280 Mel 300 yuan / ton. The transaction price in Hangzhou area is between 14530 Mel 14,550 yuan / ton. In the later period of 11:00, the aluminum price fell back, and the market price was concentrated in 14460 Mel 14490 yuan / ton. In the morning, the inquiry among traders was active, and the trading heat increased after 10: 00, but the aluminum fell too much in the later period. Although the price of the holder was lowered, the market wait-and-see mood gradually increased, and there was not much transaction in the later period. It is normal for a large family to receive goods today, but on the whole, it is OK to buy and sell among traders. Downstream today, mainly on-demand procurement, due to the excessive decline in aluminum prices, slightly hesitant to buy goods. The overall transaction in East China is mediocre today. Afternoon aluminum to maintain a low range shock, the difference between the price of the holder, between 14300Mir 14360 yuan / ton, to the disk rising water 260Mel 320 yuan, the transaction is light, wait-and-see mood is strong.

Lead: within a day, lead is opened at US $1849 / ton. During the Asian session, trading was light. Lun lead fluctuated downward along the daily moving average with Shanghai lead, falling to an intraday low of 1824 US dollars / ton in the afternoon. Supported by the 10-day moving average, it fluctuated near the 1830 US dollars / ton moving average and entered the European period. Affected by the decline in the US dollar index, Lun lead rebounded slightly, re-stood above the 10-day moving average and adjusted horizontally along the daily moving average. As of 1715 30, it temporarily closed at 1833.5 US dollars / ton, down 20 US dollars / ton. It fell by 1.08%. Lun lead k line entities are under pressure on the 5-day moving average, KDJ indicators began to be exposed downwards, coupled with the rise in the dollar index, Lun lead's overall performance was short, but under the support of the 10-day moving average, LME lead inventory decreased by 25 tons today. At night, focus on the European Central Bank's main refinancing rate, the number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits at the beginning of the week and the monthly retail rate in June. Pay attention to market sentiment guidance, whether Lun lead can maintain the support level of the 10-day moving average.

During the day, the 2008 contract for Shanghai lead opened at 15145 yuan / ton. In early trading, after Shanghai lead rose slightly to an intraday high of 15175 yuan / ton, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling all the way, it was adjusted horizontally by the first line of support of 14900 yuan / ton in the afternoon, closing at 14890 yuan / ton, down 480 yuan / ton, or 3.12%. The position decreased by 1828 to 20178, and the trading volume increased by 22737 to 18358. Shanghai lead closed the Changyin line, falling below the 5-day moving average and 10-day moving average one after another, mainly due to the collapse of A shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the withdrawal of long funds one after another. Shanghai lead once again fell into the gap of 14395 yuan / ton in the Spring Festival, and the KDJ index was also exposed downwards. It is still doubtful whether the 20-day moving average can be maintained at night. In addition, 07 contract delivery was completed, 08 contract became the same month's contract, the main force transferred to the distant month, 08 contract position decreased sharply, 09 contract position increased by 625 hands to 17669 hands.

Shanghai market Mulun lead 15100 yuan / ton, for Shanghai lead 2008 contract rising water price 150 yuan / ton; Jiangsu and Zhejiang market Muleng, Yuteng lead 15000Mel 15150 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead 2008 contract rising water price 50mur200 yuan / ton; import KZ lead 14950 yuan / ton, flat water quotation for Shanghai lead 2008 contract. Lead is expected to plummet and return to the bottom of the five-thousand-year Plan, and the price of the consignor is higher, and some of them are afraid of falling and selling, and the quotation goes down, while the lower reaches do not hold over-optimistic expectations for future consumption and generally hold a wait-and-see attitude. The bulk order market traded two light.

Guangdong market South China lead 15125 yuan / ton, to SMM1# lead average price flat quotation; Henan Jinli, Wanyang 15025 yuan / ton, to SMM1# lead average price discount 100yuan / ton (trader); Henan Minshan 15075 yuan / ton, to SMM1# lead average price discount 50 yuan / ton; Hunan Shuikoushan 150175 yuan / ton, to SMM1# lead average price 50 yuan / ton quotation (trader); Jiangtong 15125 yuan / ton, to SMM1# lead average price flat quotation. Jinde 15050 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 75 yuan / ton. Yunnan small factory 14825 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 300 yuan / ton. Lead prices fall high, downstream just need to purchase, smelter active shipments, spot discount expansion, general transaction.

Zinc: zinc in Geneva opened at US $2205 / tonne. During the Asian session, the market reacted to the deterioration of Sino-US relations, the commodity stock market was weak, and the Lun Zinc concussion fell to around US $2185 / ton. the afternoon bottom rebounded and recorded a W-shaped pressurized daily moving average, the market sentiment was released more than half during the European trading session, and the London zinc backfill fell back to 2200 US dollars / ton in the day, ending at 161436. Lun Zinc closed up at 2205.5 US dollars / ton, up 4.50 US dollars / ton, or 0.2%. The long shadow cross of Lun Zinc closing is more resilient, and the valuation repair logic still exists. Coupled with the expected support of marginal repair of demand, the fundamentals of Lun Zinc have not worsened. However, the uncertainty of the deterioration of Sino-US relations constitutes a certain pressure, Lunzhihua may still be under pressure on the 5th line of operation at night, paying attention to the macro news guidance.

During the day, the main 2009 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 17750 yuan / ton, and zinc was temporarily arranged at the beginning of the session, running at the bottom of the daily moving average near the opening price. In the afternoon, the stock market trend was bleak, risk aversion sentiment warmed up and many heads gradually fled, and zinc concussion weakened and hit a bottom of 17555 yuan / ton. Later, an attempt was made to correct that it was blocked by the daily moving average line to fall again, and some short positions left the market at the end of the day. The final close fell 17675 yuan / ton, down 195 yuan / ton, down 1.09%. Trading volume increased by 46407 lots to 147000 lots, and positions decreased by 4698 lots to 82926 lots. Zinc in the future received a big positive pillar falling back with a long shadow line, the stock market commodities are in a comprehensive correction, and the zinc decline is relatively limited. The current spot market demand and the limited growth rate expected in the week of social inventory constitute a certain support, but the relationship between big countries is not optimistic to disturb the market sentiment. Zinc or weak shock operation in the evening.

The mainstream transaction of zinc in Shanghai is 17775murl 17915 yuan / ton, Shuangyan 17930 yuan / ton, and imported zinc 17730,17880 yuan / ton. Zinc in Shanghai is generally quoted for 850095 yuan / ton of water in August; Shuangyan quoted water 100 yuan / ton in August, imported zinc in August 50 yuan / ton; Shuangyan zinc mainstream traded at 17705rel 17845 yuan / ton. The main trade of zinc in Shanghai is 17780 million yuan / ton, and the price of imported zinc is 17780 million yuan / ton, while that of Shuangyan zinc is generally quoted at 850.95 yuan / ton in August, while that of imported zinc is 50 yuan / ton in August. Shanghai Zinc 2008 contract shock operation, the first trading session of the morning market closed at 17810 yuan / ton, late trading shock consolidation, morning shippers control the delivery rhythm, the market acceptance sentiment is high, the market ordinary zinc brand transaction concentrated on the SMM net average price level to rise water 5 yuan / ton, the market followed quotation morning to 2008 contract water 80 yuan / ton, the latter part of the holder raised the water quotation to 90 yuan / ton; Entering the second period of time, the market quotation is relatively stable, the holder raised the price of rising water to 900.95 yuan / ton for the 2008 contract; the futures market zinc price fluctuated, the downstream purchased on demand, the market trading was still good, and there was a strong desire to hoard goods with low rising water between trade, and the spot rising water rose all day.

The mainstream transaction of Ningbo Gao was 17850 Mel 17950 yuan / ton, and the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai ordinary brands remained near Pingshui since yesterday. The price of ordinary brands in Ningbo was sold at around 2008 RMB per ton. Today, zinc prices are adjusted slightly, Ningbo market traders follow Shanghai traders to raise prices, some traders offer high prices, but some traders actively ship prices on the low side, even at a discount to Shanghai. In the first trading session, Tiefeng reported a rise of 90 yuan per ton for the August contract, a rise of 70 yuan per ton for the August contract, and a rise of 100 yuan per ton for the August contract. Huize did not arrive. Entering the second period of time, there is no obvious change in the rising water in the market, today's zinc price is slightly adjusted, the downstream inquiry is increasing, but the actual turnover is still light.

The mainstream transaction of zinc in Guangdong Province was 17,660 won, 17,820 yuan per ton, and the quotation was concentrated on a premium of 25,660 yuan per ton for the 2009 contract for Shanghai zinc. The discount on the Guangdong market was 90 yuan per ton higher than that of the Shanghai market, which was 30 yuan higher than that of the previous trading day. In the first trading session, prices were high and fluctuating, there were still few purchases downstream, the shipments of the holders were not smooth, and the market quotations were basically flat yesterday, but after the futures changed months, the market turned to offer more for 2009 contracts. Kirin and Mongolia quoted a price of 3040 yuan / ton for the Shanghai zinc contract in September. Tiefeng 35 yuan / ton, blue zinc 25 yuan / ton, Danxia 50 RMB60 / ton, Tiefeng 35 yuan / ton, blue zinc 25 yuan / ton, Danxia 60 yuan / ton. In the second trading session, futures prices fell, downstream entered the market to buy a little, individual holders tried to push up the price, the quotation was relatively high, traders received goods at lower prices, and the transaction was better than the first trading session. Kirin, Mongolia since the quotation for Shanghai zinc contract in September, 30murals 45 yuan / ton, Danxia Shengshui 50 murals 60 yuan / ton. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize and mainstream traded at 17660 MUE 17820 yuan / ton.

The mainstream turnover of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 17830 RMB17890 / ton, while that of Zijin was 17880MUE 17930 yuan / ton, Huludao was quoted at 19240 yuan / ton, Zine zinc was generally quoted as rising water 100 yuan / ton to 120 yuan / ton in the contract of 2008, Zijin quoted 150 RMB160 / ton in August contract, and the price of water in Tianjin stock market dropped from 40 yuan / ton to 20 yuan / ton compared with Shanghai stock market. Today, the weak consolidation of zinc in Shanghai, the spot market to maintain a rising discount price, the price is relatively uniform, the ordinary brand Bering News quoted a rise of 110 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, Hongyi quoted a rise of 120 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, Chi Hong quoted a rise of 100 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, and the high-priced brand Zijin quoted a rise of 150 yuan per ton for the August contract, while Baiyin quoted a rise of 100 yuan per ton for the 08 contract. The fourth Ring Road (delivered) quoted 100 yuan / ton of water for the 08 contract, and Ha Zn (including the depot) quoted 60 yuan / ton for the 08 contract. Today, the decline in zinc prices widened, and traders maintained the rising water quotation, and Zijin Factory made a straight price shipment in the morning, but when the transaction was not smooth, the water was also reduced to 160 yuan / tonne. Downstream, the absolute price fell again today, but downstream enterprises are not willing to receive goods, maintaining the need for weak procurement. On the whole, the turnover in Tianjin today is the same as that of yesterday. Zinc ingots traded around 17,760 million yuan per ton.

Tin: Lunxi opened at 17325 US dollars / ton today. Trading was light in the morning. Affected by the rise of the dollar index, it fell to 17195 U.S. dollars / ton in the afternoon. It hit 17055 U.S. dollars / ton below, and there is still support at the Qianqi pass. As of 1615, the latest price of Lunxi is 17130 U.S. dollars / ton, showing a negative line. The physical part is located near the 5-day and 10-day moving average. Because the outer plate metal except zinc is basically green, dragged down by market sentiment, the latest price of Lunxi is 17130 U.S. dollars / ton, showing a negative line, and the physical part is located near the 5-day and 10-day moving average. Lunxi will inevitably follow the decline, and is expected to test the support of the $17000 / ton mark below in the short term.

Shanghai tin opened at 142480 yuan / ton last night, fluctuated down to 140250 yuan / ton after opening, then rebounded and fluctuated around 141000 yuan / ton. It opened at 141400 yuan / ton this morning, and then, under the influence of the entry of short positions and the joint departure of long positions, it fluctuated all the way down, the lowest point in the day was 140530 yuan / ton, and the profit-taking of short positions rebounded to close at 139920 yuan / tonne, down 2220 yuan / ton, or 1.56%. The trading volume was 45251, the position was 29725, and there was a reduction of 42, showing a long overcast line within the day, and the physical part was located near the 5-day and 10-day moving average. The lower support level is expected to be near the 20-day moving average of 139500 yuan / ton.

On the spot market, today's quotation is 139500 won 142000 yuan per ton. Shanghai tin noodles this morning are down about 1500 yuan / ton compared with yesterday morning, and the average net price is down 750yuan / ton. Spot prices decline, but downstream buying is difficult to flourish, rising stickers are not ideal, traders hold a wait-and-see attitude, manufacturers' shipments are still general, and the overall trading atmosphere in the Shanghai-tin spot market is generally weak. In terms of liter discount, Yunxi rose about 1000 yuan / ton for Shanghai tin 2009 contract, around 500 yuan / ton for Yunzi, and about 1500 yuan / ton for small brands.

Nickel: today, Apron Nickel opened at US $13520 / ton. After opening, it began to move downwards all the way along the daily moving average, until it was traded horizontally in the narrow range of US $13350 in the afternoon. After a brief stalemate, it accelerated its downward trend again in the afternoon, exploring a low of US $13210 / ton. It was temporarily supported under the rising platform, and its low level rose slightly back to US $13300, but it knowingly stopped at the daily moving average. As of 1730, Lunni reached US $13270 / ton as of 1730. It fell 270 yuan / ton, or 1.92%. Although Lunni broke the 5-day and 10-day moving average today, it is still more resistant than Shanghai Nickel. tonight, the United States announced the number of people applying for unemployment benefits that week, retail data, the latest interest rate resolution of the European Central Bank, and pay attention to the long-short force game brought about by market sentiment. If Lunni loses 13300 US dollars, the lower support target points directly to the 20-day moving average of 13000 US dollars.

Shanghai Nickel's main 2010 contract opened at 107820 yuan / ton in the morning market, showing a concussion and slow downward trend at the beginning of trading. After briefly stopping near the high of 107500 yuan / ton, it gradually slipped and away from the daily average line. The afternoon market closed at around 106500 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, it accelerated the decline, fell 105200 yuan / ton, almost touched the lower 20-day moving average, and then the short positions pulled back, the market recovered to a low level, and the market returned to above 106000 yuan / ton in late trading. It closed at 106170 yuan / ton, down 2520 yuan / ton, or 2.32%. The position reached 142000 lots, a decrease of 2920 lots, and a turnover of 938000 lots, an increase of 247000 lots. There has been a significant reduction in positions in contracts in recent months today, with a total reduction of 8517 positions in 2008 and 2010, with each contract falling by more than 2 per cent. The main contract today fell below the 5-day, 10-day moving average, pointing to the 20-day moving average, the decline was alleviated, giving up the rally since last week. Today, A shares plunged 4.5%, dragging down the commodity market is green, the early bulls escape from the market, short-term homeopathy crackdown, technical indicators are weak. In the evening, Ruolun Nickel can stop falling and stabilize, and Shanghai Nickel will also continue to seek support at the 20-day moving average.

Today, SMM1 Electrolytic Nickel is quoted at 106050 RMB107050 per ton. Today, the trading price of nickel in Shanghai gradually fell back to 106000 yuan / ton in the morning market, with mixed transactions in the morning market. Jinchuan nickel was still more traded, and prices continued to fall in the afternoon, stimulating terminal steel mills to enter the market for purchase, and some traders recorded good transactions. In terms of price quotation, Russo Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 2008 contract is quoted from 500 to 600 yuan / ton. Jinchuan Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 2008 contract rose 200 yuan / ton to 350 yuan / ton, the market supply is relatively abundant, traders low-rise Jinchuan nickel shipments are OK. The ex-factory price of Jinchuan Company is 106700 yuan / ton. after the price has fallen, the willingness of traders to receive goods has gradually weakened, and it is expected that the supply of low-priced goods will be reduced in the future. Nickel beans to Shanghai Nickel 2008 contract is still quoted at 1500 yuan / ton, there are also certain shipments today.

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