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China Iron and Steel Association: the trend of shock differentiation in the global steel market is becoming stronger.
Jul 16,2020 08:47CST
translation
Source:China Iron and Steel Association
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM Network News: the madness of the new crown epidemic seems to be difficult to block the unique logic of the steel city. During the reporting period, the 96.7-point steel house global benchmark steel price index rose 1% from the previous week (from decline to rise), 0.2% month-on-month (from rise to decline), 12% from the same period last year (decline convergence), and 9% year-on-year decline (decline convergence). Among them: flat wood index 88.5 points, up 1.2% (from decline to rise); long wood index 108.5 points, up 0.8% (from decline to rise); and Asia index 107.4 points, up 1.5% (expansion). In Asia, the China index was 109.7 points, up 1.6% from the previous week (up by 1.6%); the American index was 94.1 points, down 0.3% from the previous week (restrain the decline); and the European index was 80.7 points, down 0.9% from the previous week (the decline widened). Data and information show that after the global confirmed cases of new crown virus have exceeded 10 million, the reverse solution and survival desire of all walks of life in various countries seem to be stronger, which seems to be an epic "paradox" from time to time. These include: an unprecedented flood of liquidity, while commodity prices have fallen instead of rising; important indicators of major economies have flashed, but stock indices in areas with a major epidemic have repeatedly hit record highs; and despicable acts such as subverting black and white, smearing and throwing pans, can unexpectedly spread arrogantly around the world, and so on. This all "highlights" the treachery of the market and the difficulty of dealing with it. According to the development trend of the international steel market, combined with the basic situation of the regional market, the international steel market may continue to fluctuate and rise in the second half of July.

China's steel production may lead countries to strengthen protectionist measures. Koji Shiki, president of Japan Iron and Steel Engineering Holdings, said that due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, major steel producing countries have reduced production one after another, but China, which recovered from the epidemic earlier, is increasing production, and China's sense of presence in the world has further improved. To this end, countries are likely to strengthen protectionist measures.

China's imports of steel and iron ore skyrocketed in the first half of this year. China imported 1.88 million tons of steel in June, up 98.7% from a year earlier, according to the General Administration of Customs. A total of 7.34 million tons of steel were imported from January to June, an increase of 26.1 percent over the same period last year, and iron ore imports in June were 101.68 million tons, up 35.3 percent from the same period last year. Imports of iron ore in the first half of this year were 546.91 million tons, an increase of 9.6 percent over the same period last year, and imports increased by 48.062 million

Nippon Steel and JFE Steel shut down seven blast furnaces by the end of July. The (METI) of Japan's Ministry of economy, Trade and Industry predicts that Japan's crude steel production will fall to an 11-year low from July to September this year. In response to falling demand, Nippon Steel and JFE Steel announced that they would shut down seven blast furnaces by the end of July and expected crude steel production to be reduced by 2530 per cent, a METI spokesman said.

ArcelorMittal will restart the No. 2 blast furnace in Tubarang. ArcelorMittal Brazil said it would restart its Tubalang No. 2 blast furnace with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tons on July 26 as steel demand gradually recovered.

Posco decided to restart the production of No. 3 blast furnace. South Korea's Posco said that despite the global recession caused by the new crown pneumonia outbreak, the blast furnace had been repaired and maintained worth about $332.6 million, coupled with an improving market. Therefore, it was decided to restart the production of No. 3 blast furnace, and the annual crude steel output of the furnace is expected to increase by 25% to 4.6 million tons.

Vietnam's steel imports surged 20.4% in June from a year earlier. Vietnam imported 6.8 million tons of steel from January to June 2020, down 5.4 per cent from a year earlier, according to the Vietnam Steel Association. But steel imports in June were 1.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.4 percent.

Toyota buys electrical steel products from Baowu, China. Japan's Toyota will purchase some electrical steel plates from China's largest steelmaker, China Baowu Iron and Steel Group, a move that indicates that Japanese steelmakers will have to compete with their foreign counterparts in price and quality, Nikkei Asia Review reported.

Asian steel market: the trend is stronger. The region's 107.4-point steel benchmark price index rose 1.5 per cent month-on-week (expanded), 0.7 per cent month-on-month (moderated), 8.2 per cent lower than a year earlier (enlarged) and 7.1 per cent year-on-year (moderated decline).

Flat wood: market prices are mixed. In Vietnam, the price for importing Chinese 2-3mm re-rolling grade SAE1006 hot rolls and similar products is 430mur435 US dollars / ton (CFR), is about 10 US dollars / ton lower than the previous price. Vietnamese buyers said that at present, the end-user has completed negotiations with Vietnam's Hejing steel hot coil agreement price, so the demand for imported hot coil has declined, with most buyers offering US $425 per ton for imported hot coil (CFR, Vietnam). Japanese hot rolls are quoted at US $470 / ton (CFR, Vietnam). South Korea's export quotations for SAE1006, SS400 and SPHC hot rolls remain at US $460 / ton (CFR, Vietnam). Indian hot rolls are quoted for back-to-back trade at US $440 per tonne (CFR, Vietnam). The export price of hot rolls in Taiwan is US $465 / ton (CFR, Vietnam). In South Korea, the ex-factory price of SPHC4.5mm hot-rolled coil is 1.06 million won / ton, the ex-factory price of SPCCNo.11.0mm cold-rolled coil is 1.18 million won / ton, and the ex-factory price of SPGC1.2mm galvanizing is 1.28 million won / ton, which is the same as the previous price. As of July 10, the mainstream export price of China's SS4003-12mm hot-rolled coil was US $455 / ton (FOB), increased by US $5 / ton compared with the previous price. The average export price of SPCC1.0mm cold-rolled coil is US $510 / ton, which is US $5 / ton lower than the previous price. DX51D1.0mm hot-dip galvanized sheet coil mainstream export quotation 560 US dollars / ton (FOB), rose 5 US dollars / ton. The import price of ASEAN hot rolls rose by US $7 per ton, (CFR), rose by US $443 per tonne.

In terms of talent: the market price is generally stable. In Singapore, the reasonable price of imported rebar is about the same as the previous price at US $420 per tonne of (CFR),. It is reported that most construction projects in Singapore have not been fully resumed, so the demand for rebar is obviously insufficient, and there is almost no actual trading volume of imported rebar. Some industry insiders said that the actual resumption of work in Singapore may be in July-August. In South Korea, Hyundai Iron and Steel decided to sell its small strip mill assets at the Tangjin plant and scrap some unsalable equipment, and 275 workers associated with it will be transferred to other steel mills. In South Korea, the ex-factory price of SD400 rebar is 660000 won / ton, down 3000 won / ton from the previous price. As of July 10, the average export price of China's B50012-25mm rebar at 460 US dollars / ton (FOB) was the same as the previous price.

In terms of trade relations. The Australian Anti-dumping Committee issued notices 2020 / 068 and 2020 / 074, which said that anti-dumping and countervailing investigations were launched against aluminized galvanized sheets imported from China and Vietnam with a width of less than 600 mm. The first anti-dumping sunset review investigation was launched on steel bars imported from China.

Brief test: according to the operating situation combined with the fundamentals, the Asian steel market may continue to fluctuate and rise in the second half of July.

European steel market: ups and downs. The region's 80.7-point steel benchmark price index rose 0.9% month-on-week (from decline to rise), 0.1% month-on-month (increase convergence), 13.8% month-on-month decline (decline convergence), and 8.8% year-on-year decline (decline convergence).

Flat wood: market prices are mixed. In northern Europe, the ex-factory price of hot-rolled coil is $455 / ton, up $5 / ton from the previous price. The ex-factory price of cold-rolled coil was US $560 per ton, an increase of US $15 per ton. The ex-factory price of galvanized sheet is 570 US dollars / ton, up 10 US dollars / ton. Some market analysts said that due to the lack of competitive import quotations and the gradual recovery of demand, the price of hot rolls in Europe has continued to rise recently. However, due to the arrival of the seasonal off-season, the upward trend in prices is likely to slow for some time to come. It has been reported that steel mills may recently re-evaluate their pricing targets and raise prices again around the end of August. In Turkey, the ex-factory price of hot-rolled coil is $430 / ton, down $10 / ton from the previous price. The ex-factory price of cold-rolled coil was US $525 per ton, down by US $5 per ton. The ex-factory price of galvanized sheet is US $590 / ton, which is the same as the previous price.

Talent: market prices vary. In northern Europe, the ex-factory price of rebar is US $505 per ton, roughly the same as the previous price. In Turkey, the ex-factory price of rebar is 490 US dollars per ton, down 5 US dollars per ton from the previous price. Some market participants said that the epidemic in Europe is still serious, it will take time for the construction industry to restart, and the steel demand of the construction industry is facing greater uncertainty.

Brief test: according to the operating situation combined with the fundamentals, the European steel market may continue to move sideways in the second half of July.

American steel market: continue to be weak. The region's 94.1-point steel benchmark price index fell 0.3% month-on-week (down moderately), 2.9% month-on-month (from rising to falling), 19.9% year-on-year (enlarged), and 14% year-on-year (converging).

Flat wood: market prices continue to decline. In the United States, steel prices continue to fall as the number of confirmed cases of the new crown virus approaches 1/3 worldwide. At present, the ex-factory price of hot-rolled coil is US $520 / ton, which is US $10 / ton lower than the previous price. The cold-rolled coil was US $715 per ton, down by US $5 per ton. Hot-dip galvanizing $785 / ton, down $15 / ton from the previous price. The ex-factory price of thick plate with fixed length is 580 US dollars / ton, down 15 US dollars / ton. According to industry insiders, the price of thick plates has fallen 18.8% since the beginning of the year and is now the lowest since the fall of 2016. Some people in the market are worried that the re-outbreak of the new crown virus will be extremely disadvantageous to the demand for steel, and the differences between various institutions will increase in the future.

In terms of talent: market prices continue to decline. In the United States, the ex-factory price of rebar is $610 / ton, down $5 / ton from the previous price. Some market analysts said that the re-outbreak of the epidemic dimmed the outlook for steel demand, significantly increased the uncertainty of the trend, and the market outlook was not optimistic.

Trade relations: (1) on June 26, the United States International Trade Commission issued the second anti-dumping sunset review of industrial damage to thin-walled rectangular steel pipes imported from China, South Korea, Mexico and Turkey. At the same time, the second countervailing sunset review of the industry damage to the thin-walled rectangular steel pipe imported from China was made; (2) on June 29, the US Department of Commerce issued a notice saying that the countervailing second quick sunset review final adjudication of oil pipe imports from China will continue or recur at a subsidy rate of 20.90% to 26.19% if the current countervailing measures are abolished.

Brief test: according to the operating situation combined with the fundamentals, the American steel market in the second half of July may continue to downgrade the trend.

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