SMM7 March 15: most of the LME metal market was red in the morning trading. As of 09:45, Lun Copper rose nearly 0.7%, Lun Aluminum, Lun Zinc, Lun lead rose nearly 0.3%, Lunni and Lunxi were flat. On the domestic side, most of the non-ferrous metals market was green, Shanghai zinc fell nearly 1.5%, Shanghai aluminum and Shanghai tin fell nearly 0.8%, Shanghai nickel and Shanghai lead fell nearly 0.6%, and Shanghai copper was faintly red.
In terms of copper, copper prices are expected to remain unchanged in the long run. Global liquidity easing is expected to superimpose the strength of copper's own fundamentals, and copper prices still have long-term upward momentum. On the macro front, the tone of optimism continues, the global economy is still in the process of recovery, and policy easing is expected to remain. The US budget deficit hit a record $864 billion in June yesterday, while the French finance minister said it would take large-scale support measures to boost employment. Fundamental copper prices continue to show strong support. Chile, Peru mine side by the epidemic interference news, wage negotiations may trigger a "strike" to further aggravate mine supply concerns. The tight supply of domestic copper concentrate is expected to be transmitted to the electrolytic copper supply port, and the tight domestic supply contributes to the rise in copper prices. Domestic consumer performance continues to be stable, according to SMM research, the domestic copper comprehensive operating rate of 77.72% in June, although weak month-on-month, but still 1.78% growth compared with the same period last year. Therefore, in the long run, waiting for oil prices to stabilize and copper prices to return to their own factors, macro and fundamentals will support copper prices to continue to rise.
[SMM Analysis] the plunge in oil prices has dragged down the short-term diving of copper prices and still has upward momentum for a long time.
In terms of black, threads fell nearly 0.1%, hot rolls rose nearly 0.5%, stainless steel fell nearly 0.6%, coke rose slightly, coking coal fell nearly 0.2%, iron ore fell nearly 0.1%. In terms of hot rolls, the mainstream market resources are expected to arrive at 183000 tons this week, an increase of 32000 tons over last week. Recently, the mainstream markets have varying degrees of increment, especially the pressure on the supply side of the market has increased compared with the previous period.
The last period of crude oil rose nearly 0.9%. OPEC cut production as promised, masking the impact of slowing demand in the United States. Saudi Arabia praised Iraq for implementing almost all of its oil production cuts last month, and Nigeria told Saudi Arabia it was determined to meet production targets, a further sign that disputes among OPEC+ members over meeting production reductions are being resolved.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose nearly 0.2%, Shanghai silver rose nearly 0.4%, international geopolitical tensions and the number of coronavirus cases in the United States continued to surge, supporting gold prices. But gold saw profit-taking after climbing to its highest level since 2011, putting pressure on its price.
As of 09:55, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
Brief comments on SMM:
Copper: last night, Lun Copper closed at 6500 US dollars / ton, down 0.70%. The trading volume was 17000 lots, and the short positions increased by 1055 to 309000 lots. The Shanghai Copper 2009 contract closed at 52310 yuan / ton, up 0.23%. The trading volume was 41000 lots, and the long positions increased by 359 lots to 112000 lots. Last night, copper prices continued the momentum of consolidation, showing a wide range of shocks, fluctuating up and down around the daily moving average. On the macro front, the pathology of the new US crown continued to surge, affecting the prospects for economic restart and risk aversion caused by geopolitical tensions, but expectations of EU stimulus policies boosted market sentiment. In addition, OPEC+ cut production as scheduled, and oil prices stabilized last night, driving US stocks higher in late trading. As the fundamentals of copper prices continue to improve and other large categories of assets stabilize, copper prices are expected to continue to rise after adjustment. On the spot side, the market price rose sharply and fell sharply downstream, but the quotation of traders was strong after the price difference narrowed every other month. It is estimated that today Lun Copper 6530 RMB6590 / ton, Shanghai Copper 52450 RMB52850 / ton. It is expected that the spot water will be raised by 10 RMB30 / ton today.
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Aluminum: yesterday, Shanghai Aluminum's main 2008 contract opened slightly low at 14700 yuan / ton in the morning, fell more than 200 points at the beginning of trading, and rebounded after stabilizing near 14500 yuan / ton; it fell again in the afternoon from 14600 yuan / ton, intraday low to 14460 yuan / ton, and finally closed at 14485 yuan / ton, the trading volume was reduced to 156000 hands, the position was reduced to 142000 hands, and the daily line entity Zhongyin erased most of the previous day's gains. The total position in Shanghai Aluminum Futures was reduced to 415000 lots, and the transaction volume was reduced to 317000 lots. The main force of Shanghai Aluminum opened slightly higher at 14520 yuan / ton in night trading, then fell nearly 100 yuan / ton to 14430 yuan / ton, most of the time a narrow range of shocks, closing at 14450 yuan / ton at the end of the day. Strong macro-bullish sentiment, weak demand has not yet been fully reflected in inventory, fundamentals support aluminum prices, the main operating range of Shanghai aluminum is expected to be 14300 Mel 14700 yuan / ton.
Lead: overnight, Shanghai lead opened at 15415 yuan / ton. At the beginning of trading, Shanghai lead fell rapidly, reaching a low of 15310 yuan / ton, then stabilized, and then basically around the time-sharing line, finally reported at 15405 yuan / ton, a decline of 0.29%. Shanghai lead high narrow range shock for two days, but still did not change the high consolidation situation, short-term attention to the macro trend.
Zinc: overnight, the main 2009 contract of Shanghai Zinc opened at 17840 yuan / ton, which was dragged down by the outer disk at the beginning of the session. Shanghai Zinc quickly fell and fell by 17735 yuan / ton, the short sellers stopped earnings and left the market, and the center of gravity was revised upward, and the center of gravity was arranged and operated along 17850 yuan / ton. then the bulls entered the market with capital, Shanghai zinc rushing up 17995 yuan / ton, short positions high sniping, Shanghai zinc concussion down, recorded an inverted V correction, the center of gravity was in the daily average line narrow range shock, the end of the market, The center of gravity moved up slightly to 17900 yuan / ton. The final close fell 17885 yuan / ton, down 195 yuan / ton, down 1.08%, the trading volume decreased to 55338 lots, and the position increased by 1445 lots to 86746 lots. Overnight, Shanghai zinc received a small positive column, the center of gravity moved down, the waist pierced the upper rail of Bollinger Road, and the red column of MACD index narrowed. Overnight stock index downward drag, non-ferrous general decline, Shanghai zinc is also weak, Sino-US trade relations and overseas epidemic development uncertainty, superimposed domestic flood season water level exceeding records, macro negative zinc prices, however, domestic consumption expectations are still expected to have a certain support for zinc prices. It is expected that the contract price of Shanghai Zinc 2009 will run in the range of 17,700 won per ton, and it is expected that the domestic Shuangyan Zinc will rise 50 won 70 yuan per ton in the August contract.
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Nickel: the overnight Shanghai Nickel 10 contract opened at 109000 yuan / ton last night, running with a wide range of shocks at night. At the beginning of the day, the market quickly reached a night high of 109450 yuan / ton, then dominated by short positions, and Shanghai nickel concussion went down to test 108400 yuan / ton. The support quickly rebounded to the first line of the daily average line of 108900 yuan / ton, the pressure fell again, the position of 108600 yuan / ton fluctuated in a narrow range, and at 22:30, the bulls increased their positions, and Shanghai Nickel returned to above 109000 yuan / ton again. At the end of the day, the center of gravity moved to the first line of 108700 yuan / ton, and the narrow range fluctuated until the close. It finally closed at 108600 yuan / ton, down 450 yuan / ton or 0.41% compared with the previous trading day, and the trading volume was 378000 lots. The position increased by 4014 hands to 154000 hands. Overnight, Shanghai nickel closed at Xiaoyin column, and the center of gravity of k-column was located near 108800 yuan / ton of the 5-day moving average. Today, we will pay attention to the operation of Shanghai Nickel pressure 109000 gate.
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Tin: Shanghai tin trend: Shanghai tin main 2009 contract opened last night at 142510 yuan / ton, the highest 143110 yuan / ton, the lowest 142170 yuan / ton, closing at 142430 yuan / ton, down 310 yuan / ton, 16419 hands, 30020 positions, an increase of 237 hands. Last night, Shanghai tin opened at 142510 yuan / ton, slightly fluctuated downwards after opening, then rebounded and swung sideways under the influence of the long short game, and the bulls left at the end of the day. Shanghai tin fell to a night low of 142200 yuan / ton, closing at 142430 yuan / ton, showing a cross star. The lower support level is expected to be near the 10-day moving average of 141000 yuan / ton, and the upper pressure level is expected to be around 143000 yuan / ton.
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