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Review on spot Trading Day of SMM Base Metals on July 14
Jul 14,2020 18:41CST
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Review on spot Trading Day of SMM Base Metals on July 14
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Copper: today, Apanlon Copper opened low at US $6500 / tonne and remained in a narrow range until Shanghai Copper opened. After Shanghai copper opened, short positions pushed Lun copper down to an intraday low of $6431 / ton, but quickly hit a low and rebounded to $6479 / ton, followed by a stalemate around the daily moving average. In the afternoon, bears went on the offensive again, Lun Copper fell to 6433 US dollars / ton, while Lun Copper rose about 45 US dollars / ton. Entering the European session, Lun Copper fluctuated around 6500 US dollars / ton. Lun Copper closed at 6483 US dollars per ton, down 62.50 US dollars per ton, or 0.95 per cent, as of 17PUR 00. Today, Lun Copper opened low and its center of gravity moved downward, mainly due to the strengthening of market expectations for the gradual withdrawal of OPEC+ production reduction. The plan to cut production under high inventories may reduce the pressure on oil prices, which will lead to a pullback in copper prices by drawing bulls out of the market. At present, Lun copper negative, KDJ opening down expansion, but the lower averages are still long arrangement, copper prices upward pattern does not change. In the evening, we will pay attention to the impact of changes in API crude oil inventories on oil prices in the week ending July 10 in the United States, and test whether Lun Copper can rise again.

Today, the position of 09 contract has exceeded 08 contract, and the position of Shanghai Copper has been changed for a month. Today, the Shanghai Copper 09 contract opened at 52470 yuan / ton in the morning. after the opening, the copper price fell rapidly, exploring an intraday low of 51800 yuan / ton. then the bulls gradually increased the copper price upward, and the center of gravity stabilized at 52190 yuan / ton until the close before noon. Opening in the afternoon, the bulls made a profit and left the market, the market declined, and the copper price fell to 51890 yuan / ton. At this time, the bulls increased their positions and pulled up the copper price for a short time. Near the end of the day, the bulls reduced positions fluctuated and finally closed at 52190 yuan, down 120 yuan, down 0.23%. During the day, 09 contracts increased their positions by 3033 to 111000, mainly as short positions increased, with trading volume reduced by 35000 to 128000; 08 contracts opened at 52490 yuan / ton in the morning, closed at 52210 yuan / ton, and reduced positions by 6828 to 108000 in the day. Long and short parties accelerated the reduction of their positions, and the trading volume decreased by 82000 to 190000. With delivery approaching, the monthly contract of Shanghai Copper today reduced its position by another 3540 to 4445. At present, Shanghai Copper has a contango structure, and the price difference between 08 contract and 07 contract fluctuates around 30 yuan / ton. During the day, copper in Shanghai fell, mainly due to the impact of the linkage of international oil prices. Saudi Arabia proposed that OPEC+ discuss cutting production from 9.6 million b / d to 7.7 million b / d at its meeting on July 15, as concerns about the contradiction between supply and demand stimulated the market as the epidemic continued to affect the recovery of crude oil demand. Us oil and cloth oil fell today, dragging down copper prices. In addition, Sino-US relations continue to be strained, market preference has been suppressed, and the upward trend of copper prices has been hampered. Today, Shanghai copper negative, KDJ opening down expansion, but below is still far away from all moving averages, the uplink channel has not changed. Wait for the outer disk guidelines at night to test whether the bulls can continue to make efforts to support copper prices to continue to rise.

Today, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai is 30 yuan / ton for the current month's contract, the transaction price of copper is 52050 yuan / ton ~ 52150 yuan / ton, and the transaction price of copper is 52070 yuan / ton ~ 52170 yuan / ton. Some bullish positions left the market, and the high level of copper in Shanghai fell back to 52000 yuan / ton, a decline of about 800yuan / ton. Approaching delivery month, speculators favor low-price sources of goods. The morning market quotes flat water to rise water 20 yuan / ton, the market stops to wait and see, buying is less, after 10:30, the price difference changes sharply every other month, and the price difference returns, which is higher than 10: 20 yuan / ton in recent months. The low-price supply is favored by the market to buy actively, after the flat water copper quotation rises 10 yuan / ton, the good copper quotation rises 20ml 30 yuan / ton; Wet copper is abundant, consumption has not improved significantly, the price of the holder is enthusiastic, and the price is lower than yesterday, from 60 RMB 70 yuan / ton to 90 yuan / ton. In the face of drastic changes in price spreads, traders are cautious in trading, mainly buying bargains. During the week, the performance downstream of sharp rises and falls is still cautious and the activity is low. Tomorrow, we will pay attention to the guidelines for spot quotations due to the changes in the price difference between two months. Today, some consignors have quoted prices in August, and the basic performance remains stable from flat water to rising water 30 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, the disk went out of the V-shaped situation of suppressing first and then rising, and the disk once fell below 52000 yuan / ton. Explore the low 51900 yuan / ton line, the low brought bulls into the market, copper futures rose back to 52200 yuan / ton, the low brought active enquiries, bargain buying significantly improved, and the monthly price difference was stable in the near weak and far strong price difference of about 30 yuan / ton, the holder quoted a firm price, raised water, leveled water copper rose 20 yuan 30 yuan / ton, good copper water rose 4050 yuan / ton, and the transaction price was 51960 million yuan 52220 yuan / ton.

 

Aluminum: Lomalco opened at $1688.5 a tonne this morning. In Asian trading, it showed the biggest drop in the day in about an hour of trading, recording a low of $1676 a tonne. It rebounded strongly in the afternoon to recover its early losses. In the afternoon, Lun aluminum prices as a whole continued to show a volatile downward trend, as of 15: 00 Lun aluminum at 1681.5 US dollars / ton. In the European session, Lomalco continued its afternoon downward trend, falling $1672 / ton to US $1672 / tonne as of 1715 / t, while Lunal was at US $16,76t, down US $14 / tonne. The daily K closed temporarily at a small Yin line, and the center of gravity was still above the 5-day moving average. It is expected that in the evening, Lun Aluminum may test the support of the 5-day moving average, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the foreign macroeconomic situation and the change of Lun Aluminum registration and cancellation warehouse receipts. The main 2008 contract of Shanghai Aluminum opened at 14700 yuan / ton in the morning, and more than 450th bears entered the market in the first 15 minutes. Aluminum prices began to drop, and with some bulls taking refuge from the market, aluminum prices fell to an intraday low of 14465 yuan / ton. After that, it mainly took short-term profits to reduce positions and left the market, with aluminum prices rebounding slightly and recording an intraday high of 14600 yuan / ton at about 11:25 in the afternoon. The short sellers entered strongly again in the afternoon, and the aluminum price fell back to a low of 14465 yuan / ton again, followed by a slight lack of long and short confidence and reduced positions one after another. aluminum futures prices were mainly narrow and closed at 14485 yuan / ton at the end of the day. 08 contract day position decreased by 6764 to 142136 hands, the Shanghai Aluminum Index position decreased by 7005 to 415149 hands, the daily K closed at a long negative line, down 1.66%, giving up some of yesterday's gains, mainly long positions during the day. On the whole, electrolytic aluminum prices are still supported by fundamentals, and the upward logic of spot-driven futures prices remains unchanged. With the delivery of the contract approaching that month, the price spread narrowed rapidly every other month, and the spot price was narrowed compared with the rising water of the contract in that month. We need to pay attention to the changes in the fundamentals of the spot market and the flow of multi-short funds. Aluminum in the early afternoon high fell back to maintain the interval concussion. The spot price in Shanghai and Wuxi is between 14890 and 14920 yuan / ton, while the price in Wuxi is slightly higher. The price in the two places is more than 500 yuan / ton lower than yesterday, giving up more than half of the increase in the previous day. The transaction price in Hangzhou is 14940 million yuan / ton. In the morning, the shipper was active, but the quotation was high and the actual transaction was small. After 10: 00, the market was on the right track, and the price of the holder began to fall, and the enthusiasm for shipping was not reduced. On the whole, the transaction between traders was OK. Downstream today's pick-up enthusiasm is significantly higher than yesterday, price sensitivity is higher, with the sharp fall in aluminum prices, lest the late price rebound under the influence of sentiment, pick up goods today. However, a large family still did not carry out procurement plans in East China today, and on the whole, East China made a general deal today. Afternoon aluminum horizontal trading is mainly, the price of the holder is between 14860 Mel 14880 yuan / ton, the rising water on the opposite side is around 30 yuan / ton, only a small amount of transactions are made among traders, and there are few downstream.

 

Lead: within a day, lead is opened at US $1885.5 / ton. During the Asian session, under the influence of the overnight sharp fall in overseas stock indexes at the end of the day, there was a general correction in domestic and foreign stock markets today, trading activity was low, and the daily average under pressure of Lun lead fell all the way down to a small consolidation around 1855 US dollars / tonne. In the afternoon, the monthly rate of three-month GDP in the UK announced in the afternoon showed a sharp downward trend, and the impact of the epidemic on overseas economic recovery still worried investors. Lunqin fell to an intraday low of 1847 US dollars / ton. Supported by the 5-day moving average, it rebounded slightly from its low level. After the European session, it settled around the daily moving average in a range of 1855, 1865 U.S. dollars / ton. As of 1715, it closed temporarily at 1860 U.S. dollars / ton, down 24 U.S. dollars / ton. Lun lead recorded a bald long overcast line, and the KDJ index showed a convergence trend, but it is still above the 5-day moving average. It is expected that Lun lead will continue to use the 5-day moving average as the support for horizontal adjustment at night.

During the day, the main 2008 contract of Shanghai lead opened at 15475 yuan / ton. In early trading, basic metals generally fell, and Shanghai lead then fell through the daily average line, supported by 15355 yuan / ton, rebounded slightly, and adjusted horizontally around 15415 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, Shanghai lead first suppressed and then rose, following the V-shaped reversal of the Shanghai Composite Index and the non-ferrous metals plate, reaching an intraday low of 15295 yuan / ton, ending at 15365 yuan / ton, down 95 yuan / ton, or 0.61%. The position decreased by 2776 to 22292, and the trading volume increased by 24 to 34504. Shanghai lead recorded a long shadow line, KDJ indicators showed signs of convergence, coupled with the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets began to enter the technical adjustment stage, Shanghai lead is expected to have a small correction in the short term. It should also be noted that the position in the 07 contract is only 6870 hands, and today's warehouse receipt inventory increased by 7142 tons to 33098 tons, leaving a shortfall of only about 1000 tons. The contract has shown smooth delivery in that month. And Yuanyue 09 contract and the main 08 contract price difference has shrunk to 75 yuan / ton, the main capital has obviously moved back.

Shanghai market Mulun lead 15790 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton discount to Shanghai lead 2007 contract; Jiangsu and Zhejiang market south, Tongguan, Yuteng lead 15790 color 15840 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton to flat water price for Shanghai lead 2007 contract. During the period of lead high consolidation, the price quoted by the holder follows the market, but there is almost no inquiry for warehouse receipt goods downstream, just need to still prefer recycled lead or some electrolytic lead factory shipments, the trading market is light.

Guangdong market Nanhua lead 15500 yuan / ton, flat water quotation for SMM1# lead price; Minshan, Henan province, 15550 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton for SMM1# lead price; Shuikoushan, Hunan, 15550 yuan / ton for SMM1# lead price: 50 yuan / ton (trader); Jiangtong 15550 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton for SMM1# lead price Jinde 15450 yuan / ton, 50 yuan discount to SMM1# lead price. Anhui Bronze Crown 15790 yuan / ton, 2007 contract discount 50 yuan / ton. Yunnan small factory 15100 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 400 yuan / ton. The overall decline of non-ferrous metals, the lower reaches of today's bargain purchases, traders and smelters less bulk orders.

 

Zinc: zinc in Geneva opened at US $2253.5 / tonne, dragged down by the plunge in US stocks and crude oil, non-ferrous zinc fell at the beginning of the day, and Lunzin quickly fell to around US $2210 / tonne, hitting a low of US $2201 / tonne, struggling to maintain the integer mark of US $2200 / tonne, increasing amplitude in the afternoon, once breaking through the daily average line and hitting US $2226 / tonne, but failed to stand firm, falling back again in European trading and falling below US $2200 / tonne again. After reaching a low of US $2198, it soon recovered above US $2200. As of 17Groupe 47, Ren Zinc closed down US $2202 per ton, or US $53 per tonne, or 2.35 per cent. Lun Zinc received a big negative column, breaking through the integer figure of US $2200 at one point, but the low recovered quickly. The liquidity released in order to boost the economy affected by the epidemic is likely to be tightened as the epidemic is gradually brought under control, dragging down market risk appetite, and following the guidance of macro news at night, Ren Zinc is expected to test the support of the US $2200 / ton mark.

During the day, the main 2009 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 18180 yuan / ton, and the market risk appetite at the beginning of the session was suppressed, and non-ferrous metals fell rapidly. Lun Zinc reduced its positions and fell to 17920 yuan / ton, and funds were further evacuated in the afternoon. Zinc fell to the bottom of 17790 yuan / ton, and then the V word reversed part of the decline, only touching as high as 18035 yuan / ton was blocked. It closed at 17930 yuan / ton, up 45 yuan / ton, or 0.25%. The trading volume increased by 41961 lots to 170000 lots, and the position increased by 4466 lots to 85301 lots. Zinc closed for a long time on the positive column, rising after ushering in a larger correction, mainly due to the rapid decline in US crude oil brought about by the macro optimism convergence drag, the fundamentals have not changed greatly, the current capital outflow is relatively limited, zinc is expected to continue to run at a high level in the evening, waiting for news guidance.

The mainstream transaction of zinc in Shanghai is 17945murl 18045 yuan / ton, Shuangyan is 17950copyright 18060 yuan / ton, and imported zinc is 17920mm 18030 yuan / ton. Zinc in Shanghai is generally quoted at 45,00055 yuan / ton in July. Shuangyan quoted water at 60 yuan / ton in July, imported zinc in July at 30 yuan / ton, and zinc mainstream trade in 17875, 17975 yuan / ton. Shanghai Zinc 2008 contract fell rapidly, the first trading session of the morning market closed at 17930 yuan / ton, the late market shock consolidation, morning holders actively quoted shipments, the market ordinary zinc brand transactions concentrated in the SMM net average price discount of 5 yuan / ton, the market quotation morning to 2008 contracts up 50 yuan / ton, after some consignors reduced the rising water price to 40 yuan / ton, but some large households in the market low rising water to receive goods actively, then the spot rising water low stabilized; Entering the second period of time, the market quotation is relatively stable, the holder raised the price of rising water to 500.55 yuan / ton for the 2008 contract; the spot price fell, the purchasing mood in the lower reaches warmed up today, and the spot rising water stopped falling and stabilized.

The price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai ordinary brands narrowed from 20 yuan / ton yesterday to around 10 yuan / ton. The mainstream transaction of Ningbo brand was 17940 won per ton, and the contract water for ordinary brands was 2008 yuan per ton. The price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai ordinary brands was reduced from 20 yuan per ton to 10 yuan per ton. Today, zinc prices are high and fluctuating, and the willingness of downstream enterprises to buy is still weak. In the first trading session, traders continued to quote yesterday. Tiefeng reported that the water rose around 70 yuan / ton for the August contract. West Mining News is around 60 yuan / ton for the August contract, and Kirin and Huize News are around 80 yuan / ton for the August contract. There has been no obvious change in the rising water in the follow-up market. Today, market trading is still dominated by traders, and the willingness of downstream enterprises to buy is very weak. today, the market turnover is basically flat compared with yesterday, still maintaining a light trend.

Guangdong Zinc mainstream traded at 17890 Mel 18050 yuan / ton, and the quotation concentrated on the discount of 10 yuan / ton to 10 yuan per ton for the Shanghai Zinc 2008 contract, and the discount of 50 yuan / ton for the Guangdong market was 30 yuan higher than that of the previous trading day. In the first trading session, there were still many market shippers, and some price adjustments actively pressured spot prices to rise. Later market quotations were gradually unified, high prices fell, and downstream market inquiries increased slightly. Kirin and Mongolia quoted a flat price for the August contract for zinc in Shanghai to a discount of 10 yuan / ton. In the second trading session, the price fluctuated in a narrow range, but the overall price was still high, and the downstream fell into a wait-and-see, while the market supply circulation was still abundant, and the market transaction was relatively difficult. On the whole, downstream purchases increased compared with yesterday, but the increment was limited. Kirin and Mongolia quoted flat water for Shanghai zinc contract in August, Danxia rising water 10 yuan / ton, Tiefeng discount 10 yuan / ton. Kirin, Tiefeng, Mengzi and mainstream traded at 17890 Mel 18050 yuan / ton.

The mainstream turnover of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 18010mur1890 yuan / ton, Zijin was traded at 18060mur18120 yuan / ton, Huludao was quoted at 19320 yuan / ton, zinc common to 2008 contract quoted water 100 yuan / ton to 120 yuan / ton, Zijin to August contract quoted water 150 yuan / ton around, the Tianjin market rose from 40 yuan / ton to 60 yuan / ton compared with Shanghai market. Today, the price of zinc in Shanghai has gone up and down, and the discount price has been raised on the spot market, and the price is relatively uniform. The ordinary brand Bering News has quoted a rise of 100 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, and Hongyi has quoted a rise of 120 yuan per ton for the 08 contract. Chi Hong quoted a rise of 100 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, while the high-priced brand Zijin quoted a rise of 150 yuan per ton for the August contract, while Baiyin quoted a rise of 100 yuan per ton for the 08 contract. Yunxi Daily quoted a rise of 60 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, Sihuan (delivered to) quoted a rise of 70 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, and ha zinc (including the depot) quoted a rise of 60 yuan per ton for the 08 contract. Today, zinc prices have gone up and down, and traders have delivered goods at a positive price, but the overall transaction is not smooth, and there are also some traders selling goods at low prices. Downstream, the absolute price today has not changed much from yesterday, and the purchasing mood is still weak. On the whole, the turnover in Tianjin today is the same as that of yesterday. Zinc ingots were sold at around 17940 million yuan per ton.

 

Tin: Lunxi opened at US $17275 / ton this morning, and US stocks fell sharply overnight, dragging down the morning commodity market and A shares, giving up yesterday's gains, falling to US $17200 / ton in the morning, and then finishing sideways to the European market. After the European market, once again opened the pull trend, pulled up back to 17310 US dollars / ton, and then rose again to 17400 US dollars / tonne. As of 1730, the latest price of Lunxi is 17390 US dollars / tonne. The physical portion is supported by the five-day moving average, and the short-term target remains at $17500 / tonne.

Shanghai tin 2009 contract opened last night at 143900 yuan / ton, first suppressed and then rose, the top hit the highest point of the day 144400 yuan / ton, fell sharply in late trading. Opened at 142820 yuan / ton in the morning, continued the downward trend at the end of the night trading, fluctuated all the way down, reached the intraday lowest point of 141670 yuan / ton, and quickly recovered the downtrend after being supported, but the daily moving average was blocked, and the fluctuation range narrowed to 142500 yuan / ton range, closing at 142740 yuan / ton. There is a shady line within the day, the entity part is above all moving averages, and the lower shadow line is supported by the 5-day moving average. The lower support is expected to be near the 5-day moving average of 141500 yuan / ton.

On the spot market, today's quotation is 140500 RMB143500 per ton. Shanghai tin noodles first suppressed and then rose this morning, the price level was lower than yesterday, and the average net price fell 250 yuan / ton. Prices are still high, the lower reaches of the market just need to purchase, traders receive a small number of goods, the overall spot market trading atmosphere is generally weak. Liter discount, the Shanghai tin 2008 contract set Yunxi rose about 500yuan / ton, near Yunzi Pingshui, small-brand discount 2000mil 2500 yuan / ton.

 

Nickel: the Asian market opened empty at $13650 / ton today, gradually giving up last night's gains, falling as low as $13390, and then rebounded to a narrow range around the 5-day moving average of $13500 / ton until the afternoon. Around 14:00, the euro zone released slightly better-than-expected industrial data for Britain and Germany, and Rennick boosted the centre of gravity and shook around $13600 a tonne. As of 17PUR 50, Lunni temporarily closed at US $13590 per ton, down US $135per ton, or 0.98 per cent. In the evening, we will pay attention to the monthly rate of CPI after the quarterly adjustment in the United States in June to test whether Lunni can re-launch a breakthrough to the first line of 13700 US dollars / ton after adjustment.

The Shanghai Nickel 2010 contract opened high and low today. As the overnight trading price rose sharply after closing at 110000, the morning market opened at 108920 yuan / ton, and the bulls stopped their earnings and reduced their positions after the opening. Shanghai Nickel quickly fell to 107720 yuan / ton, gradually stabilized and rebounded after being supported by the 5-day moving average, but after rising to 109000 yuan / ton, the daily average pressure caused Shanghai Nickel to fall again. Then Shanghai Nickel revolves around 108800 yuan / ton until the end of the morning market. Opening in the afternoon, short-term slightly increased the position pressure, Shanghai nickel bottomed out to 108300 yuan / ton, but after Kongping entered more, Shanghai nickel rose continuously to break through the daily average pressure of 109000 yuan, and finally closed at 109050 yuan / ton. It closed up 1270 yuan / ton, or 1.18%. Daily turnover was 839095 lots, and daily position increased by 3815 lots to 149953 lots. Shanghai Nickel pierced the 110000 integral mark last night, and today's pullback demand was released, but it still closed above 109000 yuan / ton. At present, the MACD red column continues to enlarge, while the main force of the bulls is still present, pay attention to the outer disk trend guidelines at night to test whether Shanghai Nickel can effectively break through the 110000 mark at night.

Today, SMM1 Electrolytic Nickel is quoted at 107450 RMB108450 per ton. After today's high opening and low return of overnight gains, the Shanghai Nickel 08 contract still fluctuates around 108000 yuan / ton, and the purchasing willingness of users downstream of nickel spot is not high, only a small number of customers just need to pick up the goods in the morning, and there is almost no trading in the afternoon. Liter discount, more traders reported in the paste 500 yuan / ton, the market has a small number of low-cost sources of goods posted 600 yuan / ton, the transaction situation has not changed much from yesterday. Jinchuan Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 2008 contract is up about 300 yuan / ton, a small number of traders to promote terminal pick-up, to allow a small amount of shipments to Shengshui 200 yuan / ton. The ex-factory price of Jinchuan Company is 108500 yuan / ton in Shanghai and 108050 yuan / ton in Gansu. Nickel beans to Shanghai Nickel 2008 contract quoted 1600mur1500 yuan / ton, slightly larger than yesterday.

 

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