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The rebound of stock market and commodity suppresses the price of gold and pays attention to the opportunity to release the attribute of silver commodity.
Jul 13,2020 10:08CST
translation
Source:International trade futures
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM News: 1), the main macro news: China's M2 money supply in June was 11.1% year on year, slightly lower than expected; China's new RMB loans in June were 1.81 trillion yuan, expected to be 1.8 trillion yuan, with a previous value of 1.49 trillion yuan; and the scale of social financing in China increased by 3.43 trillion yuan in June, 809.9 billion yuan more than the same period last year, with an expected value of 3.05 trillion yuan, with a previous value of 3.19 trillion yuan.

In retaliation for France's digital tax, the US Trade Representative (USTR) announced on July 10th a 25 per cent tariff on a range of French goods worth about $1.3 billion, including cosmetics, soap and handbags, deepening a long struggle between the two countries over taxing technology giants. USTR claimed that the tariffs against France would be delayed for no more than 180 days because France had not yet begun to collect digital taxes.

According to epidemic statistics from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, there were 229900 new confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia worldwide and 66600 new confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the United States, setting a record high, and new confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in Mexico and India hit a record high in a single day.

In the United States, June PPI month-on-month-0.2% month-on-year-0.8%, core PPI month-on-month-0.3%, core PPI 0.1% year-on-year, both were lower than expected.

The yield on the five-year Treasury note fell to 0.2611%, a record low.

2), market review: on Friday (10th), the main force of Shanghai Gold fell 0.8% to 401.88 yuan / g, while the main force of Shanghai Bank fell 1.13% to 4450 yuan / kg. During the European and American period, with the strength of the stock market and commodities, suppressing the demand for risk aversion, the weak price of gold fluctuated, the spot gold in London once again lost the 1800 mark, and the night trading in Shanghai fell to around 402 yuan / g. Silver maintained shock, London spot silver around 18.7USD / oz, Shanghai silver night trading Shanghai silver main narrow range around 4484.

3) logical point of view: with the strong rebound of the stock market and commodities, it suppresses the demand for risk aversion, so the price of gold is under pressure. However, the global epidemic situation is still grim, with the United States and other countries setting new records in one day and escalating international economic and trade frictions such as China and the United States, the United States and France, so the market demand for risk aversion still exists, gold price support still exists, and there is no possibility of a substantial decline. As a whole, we maintain the view that the center of gravity of precious metals prices will continue to rise, and investors are advised to continue to hold more orders, while those who do not enter the market are advised to continue to pay attention to the opportunities for long bargains. The logic lies in: 1. The "normalization" of the epidemic, the risk of the US election, the rise of local geopolitical risks in international trade disputes, and so on, the superimposed global economic outlook is still faced with great uncertainty, so the demand for risk aversion will exist for a long time. As a result, it will continue to support precious metal prices. 2. The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates near zero until 2022, which means that nominal interest rates will be suppressed at low levels for a long time. While the global central banks led by the Federal Reserve are still implementing easing policies and governments around the world are also stepping up their stimulus packages, inflation expectations will continue to improve under massive easing, which means that real interest rates (nominal interest rates-inflation rates) will remain low or even negative for a long time, which means that gold will continue to benefit in the medium term. 3. The scale of global debt continues to rise, and in the long run, the credit risk of the US dollar rises, the central bank hedges the risk or continues to buy gold, and investors continue to buy gold. ETF, strong financial investment demand will also continue to consolidate the medium-term upward support of gold prices.

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