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[SMM comment] Metal market rose across the board, mine strike, Shanghai copper up more than 4%, iron ore up more than 3%.
Jul 13,2020 09:44CST
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Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM7 March 13: today's morning trading LME metal market mixed, Lunchu Lunxi rose more than 1%, Lunalun nickel fell slightly. The domestic market soared across the board, with Shanghai copper up more than 4%, Shanghai aluminum, Shanghai lead, Shanghai tin up more than 2%.

According to the news from the outside mine, the Zaldivar copper mining union of Chile's AntofagastaMinerals said that the copper mine workers voted to hold a strike after rejecting the wage agreement. The union said in a statement that 99 per cent of its members rejected the collective pay agreement and decided to go on strike on July 15, pending government mediation.

As for copper, according to SMM survey data, the operating rate of scrap copper rod enterprises in June was 66.71%, a sharp increase of 23.08% from the previous month, and a year-on-year increase of 18.91%. Copper prices continued to rise, which was beneficial to the outflow of scrap copper, and the control of the epidemic situation in overseas areas was gradually relaxed from the end of April to May. Importers began to increase their orders, and raw materials such as scrap copper and copper ingots gradually entered the country to make up for the shortage of scrap copper supply. The shortage of raw materials in scrap copper rod enterprises is alleviated again. [SMM Analysis] the operating rate of scrap copper rods at low prices has climbed to the peak season level.

In terms of aluminum, the start-up of leading enterprises downstream of aluminum increased slightly by 0.4% to 77.3%. The increase was mainly due to a slight increase in the start-up of some primary alloy enterprises. However, downstream hub enterprises have the habit of high-temperature holiday under the hot weather in July, and this growth may be difficult to continue. "[SMM Weekly Survey] New orders in the lower reaches of aluminum in July were weaker than the previous month, and the strip and cable industry was the first to bear the brunt.

On the black side, iron ore rose more than 3 per cent and threaded hot rolls rose nearly 1 per cent. On the news side, a magnitude 5.1 earthquake struck Guye District, Tangshan City, Hebei Province (39.78N, 118.44 E) at 06:38 yesterday, with a focal depth of 10 km. Aftershocks of magnitude 2.2 and 2.0 occurred at 07:02 and 07:26 respectively. The quake was felt in Hebei, Beijing and Tianjin. The Hebei provincial government responded quickly and initiated a level 3 emergency response. Guye District is one of the main gathering areas of Tangshan steel mills, for this reason, SMM conducted a special survey of local steel mills. Local market participants said that as the local high-rise buildings are earthquake resistant standards of magnitude 8 or above, the magnitude 5.1 earthquake will not have any impact on buildings. SMM Steel will continue to track.

Crude oil rose nearly 0.6% in the previous period. The source said that OPEC+ cut production by 10.6 million b / d in June, exceeding the production reduction requirement by 900000 b / d. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Oman, which voluntarily cut production by 1.2 million barrels a day in June, should keep an eye on the progress of this week's meeting.

As of 09:40, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:

Brief comments on SMM:

Copper: last Friday night, Lun Copper closed at 6429 US dollars / ton, up 2.1%. The trading volume was 22000 lots, and the long position increased by 3368 to 306000 lots. The Shanghai Copper 2008 contract closed at 51930 yuan / ton, up 2.83%, the trading volume was 110000 lots, and the long positions increased by 2775 lots to 118000 lots. Last Friday night, after finishing at the US $6300 front line, Lun Copper quickly broke the 6400 mark, and the Shanghai copper night market also opened high, approaching the position of 52000 yuan. On the macro side, there are signs that the new crown treatment has made progress, US stocks and crude oil have increased significantly, and the improvement of risk sentiment is good for copper prices. In addition, the market is worried about the result of the strike vote in the two mines owned by Anto. Due to the severe epidemic situation in Chile, it is expected that negotiations will be hindered, and the supply-side positive stack will stimulate a significant rise in copper prices, which is expected to continue to be strong this week. On the spot side, as the delivery period approaches, the intermonthly basis continues to narrow, limiting the rising water downward space, but the rising water is also difficult to rise under the market fear of heights. It is estimated that today Lun Copper 6420 won 6490 US dollars / ton, Shanghai Copper 51900 won 52300 yuan / ton. It is expected that the spot water will rise to 30 RMB50 / ton today.

Aluminum: last Friday, the main 2008 contract of Shanghai Aluminum opened at 14240 yuan / ton in the morning, and then increased the position by more than 100 yuan. It stabilized in the afternoon, fluctuated in a narrow range around 14400 yuan / ton, finally closed at 14375 yuan / ton, the trading volume increased to 137000 hands, and the position increased to 165000 hands. Sanlianyang of the daily line, constantly refreshing highs. Shanghai aluminum futures held a total of 428000 lots, and the trading volume increased to 259000 lots. The main force of Shanghai Aluminum opened at 14390 yuan / ton in night trading. After opening, it quickly rose 100 yuan, pulled up to 14530 won 14600 yuan / ton range to make a slight adjustment, and then pulled up again before the end of the day and closed at 14650 yuan / ton. Good macro atmosphere, increased market risk appetite, tight spot support for near-month aluminum in East China, focus on today's national aluminum ingot inventory, the main operating range of Shanghai aluminum is expected to be 14400 Mel 14800 yuan / ton. Overnight Lun aluminum opened at $1649.5 / ton, falling first and then rising in the Asian session, with an operating range of $1650, $1665 / tonne. European trading resumed its upward trend, with prices rising to $1670 / tonne. At the beginning of the US session, it rose nearly $20 and reached an intraday high of $1692 / tonne. In late trading, it closed around $1689.0 / tonne, with a trading volume of 13500 hands and a position of 825000 hands, and the daily line closed at Dayang. It is estimated that today's operating range is 1670MUR 1710 yuan / ton.

Lead: last Friday, Shanghai lead opened at 15130 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the session, Shanghai quickly rose, reaching a high of 15505 yuan / ton, then fell slightly, and finally closed at 15450 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.35%. Lun lead continues to break through the upside, enter the technical bull market, and is expected to continue to strengthen in the short term, paying attention to the macro sentiment of the market.

Zinc: last Friday, the main 2008 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 17625 yuan / ton, driven by the outer disk at the beginning of the day, the center of gravity of Shanghai zinc quickly moved up to 17750 yuan / ton horizontal finishing, and then bullish positions promoted, Shanghai zinc ladder uplink felt up 18015 yuan / ton, the US index uplink suppressed, Shanghai zinc concussion fell, fluctuating in a narrow range of 17915 yuan / ton, Shanghai zinc pulled back slightly at the end of the day, and finally closed up at 17990 yuan / ton, up 420 yuan / ton, up 2.39%.

Nickel: Shanghai Nickel opened high on Friday night, macro mood improved, capital inflow superimposed crude oil expected demand recovery time ahead, crude oil rose sharply, and commodities generally turned red. Overnight Shanghai Nickel opened at 105800 yuan / ton, and the rising trend below 107000 yuan / ton was relatively gentle. After breaking through this barrier, Shanghai nickel rose to 108000 yuan / ton, and the pressure fell slightly to 107600 yuan / ton, and then continued the previous upward trend. After exploring a high of 108660 yuan / ton in night trading, bulls left Shanghai Nickel at the end of the day and fell slightly to close at 108270 yuan / ton, up 2820 yuan / ton, or 2.67%, over the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 566000 lots, and the position increased by 11000 lots to 145000 lots. Overnight Shanghai Nickel 10 contract closed at Zhongyangzhu, Shanghai Nickel reached a new high after the new year, Boll line opening trend increased, k-column pressure on the track 109000 yuan level operation, today pay attention to whether Shanghai Nickel can continue the upward trend to explore this barrier.

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