SMM: from the end of 2019 to 2020 until March 23, the intraday low, the FTSE global index fell 33.3% (in dollar terms), then rebounded 39.0% from March 23 to June 30, and the index as a whole fell 7.0% in the first half of 2020. The two strongest performers, technology and health care, accounted for 33 per cent of the FTSE global index and 42 per cent of the S & P 500 index in the first half of 2020.
By contrast, technology and health care stocks weigh well below 6 per cent in the FTSE ASEAN all-share index, which fell 19.9 per cent in dollar terms in the first half of 2020.
Similar to the global benchmark index, technology and health care stocks have the strongest performance in the stock market. Manufacturers and distributors of medical equipment and supplies performed best in the health care sector, as did the global health care sector. Similarly, in the technology sector, stocks that provide exposure to Internet companies and cloud service providers have benefited from the acceleration of global digitization, including Singapore's Keppel data Centre Real Estate Trust, Mapletree Industrial Trust and Netlink Broadband Trust.
The Singapore stock market is highly diversified. Of the 100 most actively traded stocks in Singapore in the first half of 2020, the 20 most defensive stocks included four current components of the sea index, namely, Fengshu Industrial Trust, Mapletree Logistics Trust, take-off Real Estate Investment Trust and startups. The average total return of the four stocks was 10 per cent in the first half of 2020 and 34 per cent in 2019.
The intensification of market volatility in 2020 has affected the trading activity of active investors in REITs, who are more likely to seek growth momentum in REITs than stable returns. After the stock market hit a significant low on March 23, retail investors returned to the market as net buyers of REITs in Singapore and increased their positions in REIT ETF, most likely affected by valuations rather than yields. As a result, in the first half of 2020, REITs still accounted for 26% of the total stock market turnover and 12% of the total market capitalization of S $817 billion.
Major economic risks and growth forecasts for the second half of 2020 and 2021
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell (Jerome Powell) said in a 60-minute interview on May 17, "looking ahead, not only the United States, but the world will face major economic risks." If GDP picks up at its low point in the second quarter of June and unemployment falls, one of the big things the United States must do is to avoid a second wave of new coronal pneumonia in the coming months. As a result, the current market focus is on the surge in confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the United States, and that the Fed will not abandon its yield curve target for the next support measures. "
From a pure data point of view, against the background of a sharp contraction in (GDP) in the first half of 2020, key industries such as employment and retail, services and industry will begin to recover in the second half of 2020 and 2021, and social and economic blockades will be lifted one after another.
There is an optimistic proverb saying that it is not how much you fall, but how high you jump, which will be a reflection of the release of the global economy in the next six months. Although the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects global GDP to fall by 4.9 per cent in 2020, it is expected to rebound by 5.4 per cent in 2021. As shown in the chart below, advanced economies led the way in the decline in GDP in 2020 and the rebound in projected GDP growth in 2021.
Singapore's forecasts for GDP growth in 2020 range from-4 per cent to-7 per cent, roughly in line with forecasts for global and developed economies. The unity budget, tenacity and solidarity, and fortitude budget currently provide fiscal stimulus equivalent to about 20 per cent of Singapore's GDP, one of the highest share of GDP in the world, with a global average of 13 per cent.
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