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Federation of passengers: the price of new energy points will soar.
Jul 7,2020 09:42CST
translation
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM Network News: recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an amendment to the "parallel management measures for the average fuel consumption of passenger car enterprises and the points of new energy vehicles". I believe that with the release of the plan, the trading price of new energy points will be greatly increased. The transaction price of the early new energy integral is unusually low, which is out of proportion to the cost of the enterprise. with the decline of subsidies, it is more difficult for small and medium-sized enterprises to obtain new energy points, and many large enterprises' new energy points have not been effectively obtained. the value of new energy points has greatly increased, and the trading price of new energy points will be sharply higher than that of last year.

1. The integral value of new energy is back on track.

The only use of new energy credits traded before 2020 is to offset fuel consumption credits. Since the proportion of new energy points is not set in 2016, 2017 and 2018, enterprise fuel consumption credits are required to offset and return to zero. There are three ways to offset and return to zero the negative points of fuel consumption of passenger car enterprises, one is to compensate with the positive points of fuel consumption saved in the previous year, the second is to obtain positive points of fuel consumption from related enterprises, and the third is to compensate by buying new energy vehicles. Therefore, the trading of new energy credits in 2019 is mainly offsetting negative fuel consumption credits. Its price is to use new energy points as fuel consumption points, the actual value is greatly reduced. Therefore, the transaction price is very low, the price of some over-the-counter transactions is only 100 yuan, and there are even lower cases.

The new energy points starting in 2020 will return to normal value. The main purpose of the new energy credit transaction that began in 2020 is to offset the owed new energy points. The double points policy requires passenger car companies with more than 30, 000 vehicles to complete the new energy points ratio requirements from 2019 to 2019. among them, the integral proportion requirements for 2019 and 2020 are 10% and 12% respectively, and the integral proportion requirements for 2021-2023 are 14%, 16% and 18%, respectively. Therefore, starting from 2020, enterprises began to trade new energy points to meet the needs of some enterprises that did not meet the standards of new energy points.

2. drastic changes in the integral supply structure of new energy.

The supply of new energy vehicles has gradually changed from independent brands to traditional cars to diversified supply. The production and sales of new energy of independent brand traditional cars are seriously depressed. This is also a significant improvement in the break-even point of independent brands of new energy after the subsidy has gone downhill. Under relatively difficult circumstances, independent brands reduce the production and sales of new energy vehicles and reduce losses.

Therefore, the cost of obtaining new energy points of independent brands has skyrocketed, the output has dropped sharply, and the price of selling new energy points must return to a reasonable level rationally.

3. The demand for new energy points is growing steadily.

In 2019, the average fuel consumption of passenger cars is 5.8 liters, of which the fuel consumption of domestic cars is 99%, and that of imported cars is 103%. The fuel consumption of domestic cars is excellent, and the overall index is basically balanced.

From the point of view of fuel consumption, independent brands excel in fuel consumption, especially fuel-saving, reaching 12% of the target fuel consumption in 2019, which is much better than the 2018 level.

At present, the pressure on the fuel consumption of the joint venture is relatively high, and the fuel consumption of the joint venture is still maintained at 101%, exceeding the target by one percentage point. the relative fuel consumption pressure continues to increase in recent years, with Korean brands and German brands under greater pressure. The fuel consumption of Korean brands increased by 5% from 5% in 2018 to 10% this year.

The fuel consumption integral pressure of the joint venture in 2020 is difficult to be resolved comprehensively, and a large number of internal fuel consumption integral transfer is needed to make up for it.

4. It is difficult to effectively meet the fuel consumption points within large groups.

From the group level, the negative points of fuel consumption in 2019 are mainly SAIC Group, Dongfeng Group, Changan Group and foreign-funded enterprises, while the overall fuel consumption scores of other enterprise groups are all positive.

From the point of view of accumulating 16 to 18 years, the main negative points in fuel consumption scores are the Great Wall and Fuqi. Because the new energy points of 16 and 17 years can be offset by the points earned in the early stage, there is basically no pressure on the 2019 transaction from the group level. But the 3.1 million points of new energy points in 2020 should be difficult to achieve high price sales.

New energy points offset fuel consumption points, which is the helpless choice of some car companies.

5. Market regulation is taking effect step by step.

As the new energy points in 2019 can be carried forward to 2020, and the recent performance of new energy production and sales of car companies is relatively low, it is more difficult to obtain new energy vehicles in the future, so it is more difficult.

This revision gives the new energy points 50% carry-over ratio function under certain conditions, which solves the problem of short validity of new energy points in the current 'double points' policy. At the same time, it helps to improve the transaction value of new energy points.

The new energy points of the joint venture can be offset by 2021 against 2020, although this is very good. But the new energy credits for 2019 still need to be settled.

In addition, the structural difficulty of new energy development has increased, resulting in several joys and sorrows. New energy points are also resources for the stable development of enterprises, so the transaction price of new energy points will be significantly increased.

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